Relaxation of Restrictions, Part VII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

galway_lad

Wibbs wrote: »

I really don't understand why the schools aren't being closed down for a time, just to see if it has any effect. In any other virus, seasonal flu, common colds the schools are a big reservoir for them, but covid is somehow different?

This. I doubt I'm allowed to name names but my Dad was telling me of a school outbreak where we know people who are involved. I don't buy the line that kids are somehow much better at this. Everyone knows about the uptick in coughs,colds and flus in "regular" years every September among parents and those they sit beside at work!

The virus loves alcohol, it loves to shop, it loves social events, loves getting haircuts...

Hates schools though. Not a chance it’s in schools.

TomSweeney

They have done studies of this in Spain, schools are not a vector for this

https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-11-20/why-have-spains-schools-not-turned-into-coronavirus-hotspots.html

martingriff

weldoninhio wrote: »

Yes. You have 3 months to register a death. Have you never wondered why you see 7 deaths from October etc popping up occasionally.

Agreed

TheTruth123

[Deleted User] wrote: »

The virus loves alcohol, it loves to shop, it loves social events, loves getting haircuts...

Hates schools though. Not a chance it’s in schools.

Agree i got a call asking why my kid hasnt been at school in 2 months.
I told them its not safe and they had nothing to say

the kelt

Wibbs wrote: »

I really don't understand why the schools aren't being closed down for a time, just to see if it has any effect. In any other virus, seasonal flu, common colds the schools are a big reservoir for them, but covid is somehow different?

Yeah I mean when schools were closed over the summer and restrictions were eased we still had huge numbers.... oh sorry we managed to get them down to practically nothing.

Lockdown again and keep schools open and we never manage to get down below what 250 a day.

Simple ****ing logic tells you something just doesn’t add up but simpletons still believe schools are definitely safe because of the magic fairy dust that sprinkles on ye when you walk through the door.

Penfailed

FlubberJones wrote: »

Assume the gyms will be closed yet again... FFS

Turns out, you assumed incorrectly...FFS.

Ginger n Lemon

TomSweeney wrote: »

They have done studies of this in Spain, schools are not a vector for this

https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-11-20/why-have-spains-schools-not-turned-into-coronavirus-hotspots.html

I am not so sure thats correct.

Think about it logically, covid poses absolutely no threat to children. Why would their parents drag them all the way out to the covid test centre for a test if they dont have symptoms?

As the saying goes less tests = less cases.

I think there was a study done on this thread confirming that anyone under the age of 65 and in good health has more chance to die from a road accident on the way to the covid test centre than covid.

dalyboy

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

So its 'virus instance rate' now, haven't heard that one before.
I still don't know what 'cases' are so I'm hardly going to know what virus instance rate is. (I think being a 'case' has something to do with being healthy but not knowing you're sick or something like that, you see I don't understand the 'science' behind this virus)
Thanks for sharing your 'scientific' knowledge anyway.

Cases come from a device called PCR (a test that was never actually intended for diagnosis of covid and is beyond not fit for purpose as it picks up traces of covid 3+ months after a healthy person is diagnosed from harmless to them virus)

We then implement full scale lock down on industries that are NOT contributing to to any additional spread of a fatal virus that contributes death to 0.22% of the population.

All the while the “experts” (who are not qualified in virology in any way) constantly advise us they are following science.

The government talk to the public from both sides of their mouths and seem like they’re the victim of a great game of piggy in the middle.

It’s like one gigantic thrill ride from crisis to semi crises back to crisis ad nauseam with no end in sight.

But fear not 2021 science is going to start off with a minimum of 2 month continuity of new age 2020 science.
Happy Xmas

MOH

MOH wrote: »

Nice try, but not remotely true.
For a start, restaurants were full inside as well as out when they reopened, so your attempts to explain why your figures don't match is clearly false.

Three weeks after restaurants opened the 5-day average had gone up by around 15%. But in the meantime, the number of tests had increased by over 250%. So the positive rate actually fell during this period. If you're testing 2-3 times the number of people you're clearly going to find more cases.

Numbers spiked the August bank holiday, dropped a little but stayed higher than they had been. Then schools opened.

Two weeks after schools reopened cases were up over 20%.
Three weeks, 50%.
Test numbers of that period only increased by around 10%.

Anyone could download the HSE data themselves to verify this, but you can even clearly see it here. Ticking the 3-day average box smooths the graph enough to see clearly.
It's quite obvious that your claim that number shot up on the 14th July due to restaurants opening is a total lie.

Ginger n Lemon

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Bottom line is government and NPHET have lied to us consistently this year.

In March we were told by health minister and Leo that they dont expect us to tolerate lockdowns for more than few weeks.

They also told us to expect 250,000 deaths or 120,000 deaths from covid.

NPHET have consistently told us that covid spreads in restaurants yet have not provided any evidence. At all.

We were told masks are useless. Then we were told masks are the best thing ever. Frankly masks have not reduced the spread the virus, at all.

In October we were told to go into a level 5 lockdown nation wide to have a normal Christmas, now people are cancelling their Christmas plans.



Why would a regular person in Ireland adhere to any restrictions after being lied to consistently?

No one in NPHET ever said to expect 250,000 deaths.

And we haven't had anything that would be considered a lockdown be Italian, French or Spanish standards

Wibbs

TomSweeney wrote: »

They have done studies of this in Spain, schools are not a vector for this

https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-11-20/why-have-spains-schools-not-turned-into-coronavirus-hotspots.html

If you read further in the article:

The health expert adds that – based on Health Ministry data published on November 6 – education centers are the third-highest cause of coronavirus outbreaks. According to this particular ranking, social gatherings with family and friends cause the highest number of outbreaks, accounting for 26% of the total. Social services centers, principally senior residences, come in second place, causing 22% of all outbreaks. Education centers, which include schools and universities, account for 12%.

“We have to see how many of these outbreaks occurred in primary education centers, how many in high schools and how many in universities, because evidently there is a greater problem in universities and high schools.

So primary schools don't seem to be much of a problem, but secondary and third level are.

galway_lad

galway_lad wrote: »

This. I doubt I'm allowed to name names but my Dad was telling me of a school outbreak where we know people who are involved. I don't buy the line that kids are somehow much better at this. Everyone knows about the uptick in coughs,colds and flus in "regular" years every September among parents and those they sit beside at work!

Adenovirus and Rhinovirus which cause most colds are totally different in structure to Coronavirus and Influenza virus and survive for extended periods on surfaces which is why they are much more transmissible in schools through poor hygiene practices

MOH

murpho999 wrote: »

I never said he was perfect nor could he not be challenged.

However as I said, he's still a qualified medical professional and he holds a key role in all of this.

He does more than deflect or cover his ass but advises the government to do things that will be unpopular and difficult.

You were not asked to restrict yourself the way that you have. There was no need to stay in for 6 months.
The fact remains that numbers improve during lockdown and deteriorate during easing of them. So what is the answer.

No other country has really done anything different with positive results.
North of Europe is now in full lockdown.
Why do people think Ireland should be any different?

I never said I stayed in for 6 months. I used common sense to restrict my social contacts to a small group of people, and we met primarily outdoors. And I particularly did so over the last couple of weeks when the people I'm meeting are going to be spending Christmas with vulnerable loved ones. Tahts' just basic courtesy. That's going to do far more to curb the virus spread than endless lockdowns.

I'm not the person who said we should be able to avoid future lockdowns due to our wonderful testing and tracing system. That was Cillian de Gascun, then NPHET chair. I'm not the person who said we'd be doing 100,000 tests a week from April. That was the head of the HSE. I'm not the person who said it was OK to go and bring the virus into nursing homes full of vulnerable people, that was Tony Holohan. I suspect guilt over that might be behind his zeal for lockdowns regardless of the psychological cost and other long-term damage.

The primary function NPHET has demonstrated is managing the pandemic - politically. Which means ass-covering and deflection. I'm not aware of any other health advisory team that's giving daily press conferences (although they're more like sermons since the media have uniformly failed to ask even the most basic critical questions). They're there to give the government political cover for the lockdown merry-go-round.

They're also their into cajoling people into following lockdown through a combination of dire threats and sickeningly childish pats on the head. Using carefully chosen statistics to suit the agenda they're trying to push. So e.g. in the build-up to level 5 everything was about the 14-day average: "the 14-day average is going up, going up, going up ..... not going up .... stable for a week but it's not going down, so we need level 5. Nothing really wrong with that, 14-day average seems to be a commonly user measure."
But then a week later: "the 5-day average shows that level 5 is proving a big success; the 5- and 7- days averages show that the additional measures we introduced curbed the pandemic".

The problem there is that the single highest daily number of cases was October 18th, three days before level 5 was introduced. By the time level 5 had any effect whatsoever (even charitably assuming that was 5 days after introduction) the 5-day and 7-day averages were already plummeting due to the effect of the level 3 measures already in place. But that didn't suit the desired narrative, so the benefit was all ascribed to level 5. When it's actually unclear how much additional effect that actually had and whether it was worthwhile for the cost. (Considering where we are now, I'd suggest no).

The other primary remit of NPHET is to justify keeping the schools open, at all costs. The whole "second wave" of massive increases in cases kicked off just after schools reopened. Now, correlation doesn't imply causation, but on the other hand the government used that exact argument to blame the pubs, so that's the standard of proof that's acceptable these days. Schools are clearly the cause of the second wave.

Plus, in the downward curve during level 5, there's an sharp dip shortly after the mid-term break. But NPHET continue to reassure us with claims like: "the positive rate among close contacts in schools is 2.5%, whereas the positive rate among close contacts in the wider population is 12%".
That's a curious statistic - in fact, every statement they're made about schools has been about positive rates, when in every other context they refer to daily case numbers or x-day averages. Why would you refer only to the positive rate for schools - a statistic which conveniently doesn't reveal how many actual cases there are, or how many tests are being carried out.

Also, why the hell are general close contacts 5 times(!!) more likely to test positive than in schools? That's a whopping difference, surely there's something only in schools that can save our entire society from the pandemic.

Unless, maybe an adult who tests positive, when asked for their close contacts, will remember the ones they've had the most and closest contact with and are thus more likely to test positive? And maybe if 5 parents over a weekend have sick kids and get them tested, each of those is counted as a case in itself, whereas in an adult situation 4 of them would be close contacts of the first one who got it. So when only 1 of the other 15 kids in the class tests positive, their technically correct but totally misleading statistic holds true.


TL;DR: it might be composed of people who have a medical degree, but NPHET are primarily spin doctors manipulating stats to drive a politically acceptable response.

Amirani

dalyboy wrote: »

Cases come from a device called PCR (a test that was never actually intended for diagnosis of covid and is beyond not fit for purpose as it picks up traces of covid 3+ months after a healthy person is diagnosed from harmless to them virus)

"A device". You're clearly clued in here

Ginger n Lemon

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

I am not so sure thats correct.

Think about it logically, covid poses absolutely no threat to children. Why would their parents drag them all the way out to the covid test centre for a test if they dont have symptoms?

As the saying goes less tests = less cases.

I think there was a study done on this thread confirming that anyone under the age of 65 and in good health has more chance to die from a road accident on the way to the covid test centre than covid.

Because most people are responsible and dont inhabit the alternate reality of the restrictions thread

And as for the highlighted section, ye claim to be the purveyors of common sense - think about that statement, even for a minute.

Elmer Blooker

dalyboy wrote: »

It’s like one gigantic thrill ride from crisis to semi crises back to crisis ad nauseam with no end in sight.

But fear not 2021 science is going to start off with a minimum of 2 month continuity of new age 2020 science.
Happy Xmas

It is so so obvious whats going on, encourage as many house parties as possible over the holiday period and then blame these house parties for more 'cases' to keep the covid show on the road. So easy.
They must be laughing at us and if they aren't they should be!

Like I predicted earlier in the thread, we will essentially be locked down until end of April.

At that point vaccinations might start having an effect, schools will be close to summer hols and Covid might disappear again over summer.

Later in the year, the real devastation will start. Budget 2022, PUP ending.

We’ll start to really notice all of the things we have ignored for so long. For a lot of unfortunate people, they’ll face the very scary reality of losing their homes etc.

A bit of Covid with a tiny death rate might not seem so bad at that point.

Bobeagleburger

You can't close schools, the economy would grind to a halt. It's bad enough as it is.

Micky 32

Does anyone know if the support bubble of 1 person living alone will still be valid like the last level 5 restrictions?

MOH

Deleted User wrote: »

Haha!!!
Seriously, I needed the laugh. What on earth is that supposed to represent? That looks like something a conspiracy theorist's 5-year-old child would throw together in ten minutes in MS Paint to demonstrate how chemtrails affect frog's pregnancies or something.

"RATE OF CHANGE" ... of what?
And what's the y-axis supposed to represent? +1, -1 what?
And of course you haven't bothered to indicate any kind of source for your "data".
If you're going to pick a graph deliberately skewed to try to prove a lie, please at least put some effort into it?

Here's the actual HSE data, if anyone wants to play along at home and verify the figures themselves.

I've already linked to the Worldometer graph, which is based on the daily HSE reports (unlike you, they list verifiable sources).

And just to demonstrate how badly you've tried to manipulate the data, here's a sane, clearly labelled graph, sourced from actual HSE data, with the same annotations you added.



Disclaimers:
- Graph and data from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/ireland/ with 3-day moving average ticked. Green and red annotations mine.
- I might be off by a day or so on the 1-month blocks but it's not really relevant.
- The L5 markers should be accurate as it's more important for these sinc ehte data was swiftly changing. I tried to use the hover text on the graph to mark them accurately.
- For "L5 effect" I went with 6 days after L5 was introduced. That seems reasonable, assuming minimum 2-3 days for people to get symptoms, 1-2 days before they then call their GP and get tested, and 1-2 days for those figures to be reflected in the published results. I suspect there's probably actually a longer lead time before any effect but I'm not sure what the standard lag used is, if any.

Only 698 positive swabs off of 13000+ tests in last 24 hours.

Cases already levelling off before any lockdown.

The reason for cases rising a bit was increased testing due to people looking for tests before Christmas.

MOH

MOH wrote: »

Haha!!!
Seriously, I needed the laugh. What on earth is that supposed to represent? That looks like something a conspiracy theorist's 5-year-old child would throw together in ten minutes in MS Paint to demonstrate how chemtrails affect frog's pregnancies or something.

"RATE OF CHANGE" ... of what?
And what's the y-axis supposed to represent? +1, -1 what?
And of course you haven't bothered to indicate any kind of source for your "data".
If you're going to pick a graph deliberately skewed to try to prove a lie, please at least put some effort into it?

Here's the actual HSE data, if anyone wants to play along at home and verify the figures themselves.

I've already linked to the Worldometer graph, which is based on the daily HSE reports (unlike you, they list verifiable sources).

And just to demonstrate how badly you've tried to manipulate the data, here's a sane, clearly labelled graph, sourced from actual HSE data, with the same annotations you added.



Disclaimers:
- I might be off by a day or so on the 1-month blocks but it's not really relevant.
- The L5 markers should be accurate as it's more important for these sinc ehte data was swiftly changing. I tried to use the hover text on the graph to mark them accurately.
- For "L5 effect" I went with 6 days after L5 was introduced. That seems reasonable, assuming minimum 2-3 days for people to get symptoms, 1-2 days before they then call their GP and get tested, and 1-2 days for those figures to be reflected in the published results. I suspect there's probably actually a longer lead time before any effect but I'm not sure what the standard lag used is, if any.

That is the actual HSE Data - it is the rate of change in the 5 day average compared to 5 days earlier. 0 Means No Growth over 5 Days, +1 is 100% growth over 5 days. Crossing the Zero line is moving form Growth to decline and visa versa.

So dont try to accuse me of manipulation of data when every piece of data I post is straight from the source. You can try and recreate the chart if you wish, but it is bang on.

Given you dont seem to comprehend the difference between growth and raw numbers, it may prove beyond you however

darconio

Deleted User wrote: »

Only 698 positive swabs off of 13000+ tests in last 24 hours.

Cases already levelling off before any lockdown.

The reason for cases rising a bit was increased testing due to people looking for tests before Christmas.

Anybody with a bit of brain can see that, but not our beloved NPHET, the only response as usual is lockdown

Allinall

Deleted User wrote: »

Only 698 positive swabs off of 13000+ tests in last 24 hours.

Cases already levelling off before any lockdown.

The reason for cases rising a bit was increased testing due to people looking for tests before Christmas.

You're taking one days' figures and saying that cases are levelling off?
Seriously?

The 7 day average of positivity rate is rising consistently since December 13th.

https://covid19.shanehastings.eu/api/swabs/

Tenzor07

darconio wrote: »

Anybody with a bit of brain can see that, but not our beloved NPHET, the only response as usual is lockdown

As much as I think NPHET should be disbanded and not recieve so much direct access to the media....

....the Lockdown is being brought in by our Politicians based on what Holohan recommended... Politicians go by what the public want or are saying... the media barrage about "Mutant strains" shutting down borders and the rise in positive PCR tests has driven public fears, enough of the public have demanded a level 5+, you only have to look at the amount of rhetoric from the "Close everything" brigade to see what your facing, an almost cult like belief in locking down the entire country until Covid is gone... they're the ones driving these draconian restrictions..

Micky 32

Deleted User wrote: »

Only 698 positive swabs off of 13000+ tests in last 24 hours.

Cases already levelling off before any lockdown.

The reason for cases rising a bit was increased testing due to people looking for tests before Christmas.

...and then you have the taoseach claiming there will be in excess of 900 cases tonight .

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

Only 698 positive swabs off of 13000+ tests in last 24 hours.

Cases already levelling off before any lockdown.

The reason for cases rising a bit was increased testing due to people looking for tests before Christmas.

So testing has increased 30% and cases 200%+.

The lack of critical thinking here is frightening

Lux23

Deleted User wrote: »

So testing has increased 30% and cases 200%+.

The lack of critical thinking here is frightening

It isn't a lack of critical thinking, people will just believe what they want to believe.

Micky 32

Micky 32 wrote: »

...and then you have the taoseach claiming there will be in excess of 900 cases tonight .

Backlog, get the shock number in to support the announcement.

Has happened each time since March