Relaxation of Restrictions, Part VII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

Micky 32

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

They could have tightened things up starting today but let's not let perfect be the enemy of the good.

Ah what a shame. Whether you like it or not xmas is happening so get used to it. But better luck next year .....but oh wait...........:p

MOH

Penfailed wrote: »

That just glosses over the hospitalization numbers which puts strain on the health service.

ICU cases are down about 20% on a week ago.

Total in hospital is 237, versus a peak of 881 in April. And obviously, we don't want to be getting anywhere near that again.
But while that has increased a bit, hospital admissions seems to be steady all month, possibly marginally declining.
So it look like people are spending slightly longer in hospital which is what's causing the increase, but the actual numbers going in haven't increased. (The number of discharges seems to have been dropping off over the last week.)

Which is weird, given the increase in the number of positive cases, but it looks like it's among people who aren't being seriously impacted.

Micky 32

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Hopefully not too much damage done before then.

I’m guessing you are talking about the damage to the ecomony, job losses and the huge cost of the new upcoming lockdown? I’m happy that you have seen the light and now feel some sort of empathy for those people, good to see fair play

MOH

MOH wrote: »

Yes, of course I'm the one at fault because you're incapable of presenting data in any kind of context? Given you don't seem to understand the difference between falsifying figures and manipulating data, I can understand why you'd be reluctant.

I probably could recreate the chart but I'm not sure why I'd bother since you're still deliberately manipulating the data to try to show a desired result. (I'm assuming this is your own work, since you didn't provide any attribution?)

I'm curious, how long did you have to spend picking various metrics before you decided "rate of change of the five day average compared to five days earlier" would give you the desired results, so you could get a couple of large spikes in there after hospiality (sic) reopened? It doesn't seem to be a widely cited statistic, so marks for inventiveness.

I'm also curious what you think it shows, since you didn't bother adding any commentary (which makes me wonder if it is yours since you don't seem to understand it).

Let's have a look. I've taken the liberty of annotating your graph to illustrate the points below, but I have given you attribution. (Apologies for my handwriting, I'm a bit rubbish in Paint, and the calligraphy pen really didn't help like I thought it would)



- there's the re-opening of hospitality followed an immediate brief spike which is too soon to have been the results of that, followed by a second spike. Then it actually drops below what it was at when hospitality re-opened. It then pretty much stays around zero or below. So with the negatives cancelling out the spike end up with a 5-day average pretty much back where we started before hospitality reopened, although I think it was actually about 10% higher despite the increase of 250% in tests performed
- then there's the August bank holiday which predictably leads to a massive spike, after which things mostly stop getting worse except for a couple of brief lapses.
- then schools open and things are pretty much constantly bad after that. It's nearly a constant 50% increase or worse.
- There is something interesting though - there's actually a dip at the end of September. Bizarrely, it looks like according to your graph the situation actually improved briefly when pubs outside Dublin opened on Sept 21st (or at least stopped getting worse). Unfortunately it doesn't last too long and we're back to where we were, climbing since the schools opened
- Then L3 kicks in, takes a while to have an effect, but then shows a marked improvement, cases stop rising as quickly, and actually start dropping as L5 is implemented, with most of the improvement being before L5 has time to take effect
- L5 does briefly help, but then after mid term ends and the decrease slows and there's another spike. (Possibly kids going back to schools after a week off with greater contact with a wider group of people than normal, then bringing it back into school. Possibly not). Still, L5 prevails and things start improving again.
- Then we're back to around stable, and everything re-opens. Restaurants, food pubs, Christmas shopping, and it's legal to buy socks again. So with a wide range of factors things just get worse from there.


So well done on getting a couple of nice spikes in the right place so anyone briefly looking at your graph would see "ooh no, hospitality had horrible effects". But I'm afraid that still counts as manipulation.

And any kind of in-depth analysis of it shows exactly the same story as the straightforward graph of the 5-day average: negligible impact of June hospitality re-opening; large impact of schools re-opening only eventually mitigated by widespread restrictions. And L3 did most of the works before L5 kicked in.

Thanks for backing up my points. I'd ask to borrow your graph but I think it's needlessly confusing, I'll stick with the straightforward one.

Oh, and by the way, now that I have had the chance to have a look at the little doodle you did, nice to see you have been trying to attribute conclusions that I may have made on the data that I never made so that you can refute those in a classic strawman.

And the nice little trend line you decided to draw after midterm. You do realise the rate of decline will always tend to zero as the limit of effectiveness is reached (hint: it’s not an increase)

MOH

Deleted User wrote: »

I understand comprehension can be difficult. I took me all of 3 minutes to make the chart and it is relevant as 5 days is the mean incubation time and picking the single day rate is subject to massive fluctuations

There was absolutely no manipulation, if I had wanted to do that I would have picked the 3 day as the spike would have been much sharper.

Don’t argue stats with me when all you have are glib observations without any effort to understand what you are looking at

You provided a chart with no explanation of what it represented, where the data was sourced from, what the y-axis values indicated.
You then just stuck some labels on it at various points and posted it.

I presume it's intended to support a point which I'm still unclear on, as you haven't made it.
Otherwise it's just a random collection of data. You've chosen a measure which nobody else seems to be using, with no real explanation of why. Generally when people pick a very specific but not commonly used metric, it's an indication that they're trying to find a way of presenting the data to prove a dubious conclusion, which isn't supported by more standard measures. Or they might have found a key insight, but when they don't bother to explain it and instead insult anyone who questions them it's hard to tell which.

I appear to have actually spent more time on your chart and analysing it than you have. You've made zero observations, glib or otherwise. And your only response has been to throw personal insults that I'm incapable of understanding a random measure that you've picked with no explanation of what you're trying to prove.

If you'd taken the time to explain your point I might even agree with you if the data supports it, but you haven't actually made a point.

MOH

MOH wrote: »

ICU cases are down about 20% on a week ago.

Total in hospital is 237, versus a peak of 881 in April. And obviously, we don't want to be getting anywhere near that again.
But while that has increased a bit, hospital admissions seems to be steady all month, possibly marginally declining.
So it look like people are spending slightly longer in hospital which is what's causing the increase, but the actual numbers going in haven't increased. (The number of discharges seems to have been dropping off over the last week.)

Which is weird, given the increase in the number of positive cases, but it looks like it's among people who aren't being seriously impacted.

September wants its argument back. Hospital admissions lag cases by 12 days and deaths by 21 days

MOH

MOH wrote: »

You provided a chart with no explanation of what it represented, where the data was sourced from, what the y-axis values indicated.
You then just stuck some labels on it at various points and posted it.

I presume it's intended to support a point which I'm still unclear on, as you haven't made it.
Otherwise it's just a random collection of data. You've chosen a measure which nobody else seems to be using, with no real explanation of why. Generally when people pick a very specific but not commonly used metric, it's an indication that they're trying to find a way of presenting the data to prove a dubious conclusion, which isn't supported by more standard measures. Or they might have found a key insight, but when they don't bother to explain it and instead insult anyone who questions them it's hard to tell which.

I appear to have actually spent more time on your chart and analysing it than you have. You've made zero observations, glib or otherwise. And your only response has been to throw personal insults that I'm incapable of understanding a random measure that you've picked with no explanation of what you're trying to prove.

If you'd taken the time to explain your point I might even agree with you if the data supports it, but you haven't actually made a point.

My “random” measure actually has been fairly close to published r0 values

I posted the chart as claims were being made on rates of change that were not supported by the data, and posted the data without commented lest I be accused of pushing a narrative. That worked well for me.

I also naively didn’t adjust my scales from fractions to percentages as I assumed an understanding that +1 is the same +100% and -1 as -100% when talking of rates of change

TomSweeney

Deleted User wrote: »

Jesus, ye have lost it

:mad::mad::mad::mad:

Stormyteacup

Boggles wrote: »

If you consider that level of hospitalization "just fine".

But you need to consider the scale if you are advocating for 'sure lets just ignore it method of pandemic control'.

Is there context for hospitalisations? What is the average daily number of admissions at this time of year. Do we have an average daily admission figure for respiratory illnesses in particular?

And at what average daily figure are our hospitals maxed out? - allowing for average length of stay for a Covid-positive admission. In addition, estimated transmission in hospital would need to be factored in.

The only figure I could find was 650,000 inpatients per year in 2015, which is over 1,800 per day. If that’s a fair representation of hospital admission numbers then surely there is some scope for greater case numbers without panic.

Obviously capacity needs to be monitored carefully but if your main job is to make sure health services aren’t under pressure, wouldn’t you always be overly-cautious?

Stbc on all of above - just a cursory search out of curiosity.

MOH

Deleted User wrote: »

Oh, and by the way, now that I have had the chance to have a look at the little doodle you did, nice to see you have been trying to attribute conclusions that I may have made on the data that I never made so that you can refute those in a classic strawman.

And the nice little trend line you decided to draw after midterm. You do realise the rate of decline will always tend to zero as the limit of effectiveness is reached (hint: it’s not an increase)

I gave you attribution for the graph, since you created that.

I didn't attribute any conclusions to you, since you didn't bother to make any?
You seem to be trying to attribute my conclusions to yourself, so that you can then claim that I'm attributing them to you, so that I can then refute them? Or something? I'm confused. Is that like a reverse strawman or something?

They're my conclusions based on the graph, don't be stealing them. I did point out that your graph supports the same conclusions as mine, but I didn't attribute those conclusions to you.

I presume you mean that there's a limit to the effectiveness of the restrictions, so the rate at which the 5-day average decreases will gradually slow?
I totally agree with that. There's a fairly smooth curve that gradually gets shallower on the normal graph.
Which is why I found it interesting that shortly after the mid-term break there's an anomalous additional dip in daily numbers which lasts for about 5 days. Almost as if something beyond L5 had given it an extra helping hand. Followed by an increase a bit after mid term ends. Hence the trend line, sorry, I should have made that clearer.

Anyway this has all been fun but I'm sure we're boring the heck out of everyone else, and I've got a pub to go to while it's still open. I would genuinely like to have known what your original point was but sadly I never will.

Boggles

Stormyteacup wrote: »

Is there context for hospitalisations?

Do you mean context or comparisons?

It's a novel disease it's on top of all other non covid related health care. So no.

Thankfully the measures have eradicated flu season thus far, which just underlines how dangerous and transmissible Covid 19 is.

Boggles

Boggles wrote: »

Do you mean context or comparisons?

It's a novel disease it's on top of all other non covid related health care. So no.

Thankfully the measures have eradicated flu season thus far, which just underlines how dangerous and transmissible Covid 19 is.

I don't think flu has been "eradicated". There was already UK Gov documentation effectively stating they'd be conflating Covid and flu cases coming into the Autumn/Winter season.

Amazing how individual flu strain vaccines after so many years still only provide 10-50% efficacy. Whereas they've managed to create a "95% effective" vaccine for Covid in six months..

facehugger99

Given it's less than 2 years ago, I presume everyone remembers the 2018 seasonal flu which peaked in early Feb with almost 600 people in hospital.

How could we forget.

The calls to shut the hospitality industry and confine people within their counties was almost deafening at the time. You could hardly open a newspaper or turn on the radio without hearing about the 2017/2018 seasonal flu.

Right?

FintanMcluskey

facehugger99 wrote: »

Given it's less than 2 years ago, I presume everyone remembers the 2018 seasonal flu which peaked in early Feb with almost 600 people in hospital.

How could we forget.

The calls to shut the hospitality industry and confine people within their counties was almost deafening at the time. You could hardly open a newspaper or turn on the radio without hearing about the 2017/2018 seasonal flu.

Right?

Never had such much been asked of so few.

[Deleted User]

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I don't think flu has been "eradicated". There was already UK Gov documentation effectively stating they'd be conflating Covid and flu cases coming into the Autumn/Winter season.

Amazing how individual flu strain vaccines after so many years still only provide 10-50% efficacy. Whereas they've managed to create a "95% effective" vaccine for Covid in six months..

Multiple flu viruses in circulation in any year but only one SARS-CoV2 for a start

facehugger99

facehugger99 wrote: »

Given it's less than 2 years ago, I presume everyone remembers the 2018 seasonal flu which peaked in early Feb with almost 600 people in hospital.

How could we forget.

The calls to shut the hospitality industry and confine people within their counties was almost deafening at the time. You could hardly open a newspaper or turn on the radio without hearing about the 2017/2018 seasonal flu.

Right?

In the US for example there were 61,000 flu deaths in the 17 /18 flu season. Notice a difference?

The bs on this thread is becoming more and more laughable at this stage

Elmer Blooker

TomSweeney wrote: »

https://www.businessinsider.in/international/news/pre-covid-life-wont-be-back-in-2021-says-deutsche-banks-cio-he-also-says-asia-will-continue-to-rise/articleshow/79840216.cms

While many of us have been wishing for a return of life to the pre-COVID era, Nolting states that it will not happen.

A banker with no medical background tells us this and still there are people who think the Great Reset is a conspiracy theory!

Stormyteacup

Boggles wrote: »

Do you mean context or comparisons?

It's a novel disease it's on top of all other non covid related health care. So no.

Thankfully the measures have eradicated flu season thus far, which just underlines how dangerous and transmissible Covid 19 is.

I mean context.

Your point was re the scale of hospitalisations. Yes it a novel virus. It won’t be the last novel virus in our lifetime.

It’s surely important to have a reference point for when hospitalisations for Covid-positive patients threaten normal operating conditions for hospitals (granted hospitals have been under-resourced for years).

Elmer Blooker

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

A banker with no medical background tells us this and still there are people who think the Great Reset is a conspiracy theory!

The “common sense” thread. Good one

Elmer Blooker

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

A banker with no medical background tells us this and still there are people who think the Great Reset is a conspiracy theory!

Exactly. The likes of himself, Klaus Schwab, and Bill Gates are openly calling the shots, yet most people still won't acknowledge it.

Money controls everything. Tis no different here.

Follow what these guys are saying re: restrictions etc. Gates in particular has been right about everything so far. If you want the next six months, listen to his recent interviews.

- Continued lockdowns
- Bars, clubs etc stay closed
- No mass gatherings/concerts
- 70%+ vaccination compliance required

Don't shoot the messenger.

[Deleted User]

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Exactly. The likes of himself, Klaus Schwab, and Bill Gates are openly calling the shots, yet most people still won't acknowledge it.

Money controls everything. Tis no different here.

Follow what these guys are saying re: restrictions etc. Gates in particular has been right about everything so far. If you want the next six months, listen to his recent interviews.

- Continued lockdowns
- Bars, clubs etc stay closed
- No mass gatherings/concerts
- 70%+ vaccination compliance required

Don't shoot the messenger.

Some people have loved ones who does from this. Not me fortunately. I do know relatives of work colleagues who died. Have family members who caught the virus, one of whom ended up in intensive care. Know numerous people hospitalised, people fearful for their own or family members chances with the virus due to pre-existing conditions. But ye are right, it’s a plandemic organised by Bill Gates, The “Banks” and the reverse vampires

[Deleted User]

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Some people have loved ones who does from this. Not me fortunately. I do know relatives of work colleagues who died. Have family members who caught the virus, one of whom ended up in intensive care. Know numerous people hospitalised, people fearful for their own or family members chances with the virus due to pre-existing conditions. But ye are right, it’s a plandemic organised by Bill Gates, The “Banks” and the reverse vampires

Nobody said anything about the virus not costing lives.

Also didn't mention anything about a "plandemic" here. Just stating that the likes of Gates and the WEF (through WHO/UN/EU) are openly calling a lot of the shots re: restrictions and path to recovery.

[Deleted User]

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Nobody said anything about the virus not costing lives.

Also didn't mention anything about a "plandemic" here. Just stating that the likes of Gates and the WEF (through WHO/UN/EU) are openly calling a lot of the shots re: restrictions and path to recovery.

A person at Deutsche Bank who’s role it is to analyse what may happen, makes a prediction about what may happen and suddenly its evidence they are directing what is happening. That belongs in a different forum in my opinion

Beasty

Deleted User wrote: »

Don't shoot the messenger.

Won't shoot, but as you are spouting Conspiracy Theory stuff, I will threadban you

Do not post in this thread again

ElJeffe

Deleted User wrote: »

Exactly. The likes of himself, Klaus Schwab, and Bill Gates are openly calling the shots, yet most people still won't acknowledge it.

Money controls everything. Tis no different here.

Follow what these guys are saying re: restrictions etc. Gates in particular has been right about everything so far. If you want the next six months, listen to his recent interviews.

- Continued lockdowns
- Bars, clubs etc stay closed
- No mass gatherings/concerts
- 70%+ vaccination compliance required

Don't shoot the messenger.

It's just as simple as a virus pal.

Sometimes there's no conspiracy.

Seweryn

ElJeffe wrote: »

It's just as simple as a virus pal.

Sometimes there's no conspiracy.

I don't think anyone questions the existence of the virus.

It's the Government actions that are very inappropriate to the situation.

Seweryn

Seweryn wrote: »

I don't think anyone questions the existence of the virus.

It's the Government actions that are very inappropriate to the situation.

Questioning actions is appropriate. No one country has acted appropriately at all steps in managing the virus. Assigning unfounded motivations to those actions based on nothing but the wild imaginings of a few contrarians not so much

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

Some people have loved ones who does from this. Not me fortunately. I do know relatives of work colleagues who died. Have family members who caught the virus, one of whom ended up in intensive care. Know numerous people hospitalised, people fearful for their own or family members chances with the virus due to pre-existing conditions. But ye are right, it’s a plandemic organised by Bill Gates, The “Banks” and the reverse vampires

in Bold, no idea what that means, who "does" from this?? you know relatives of work colleagues, sure you do... 180 degrees of separation there for all to see, my neighbors dog has a friend who's a relative... sure... give some context to your experiential tales of woe, what age was the intensive care relative, weight? health status? wow, I'm fairly socially networked and know not a soul with it and yet you're in touch with at risk groups a plenty?? or a complete spoofer, my money is on the latter. Newsflash, everyone with conditions are fearful, that's the point most are making there Samuel Hahnemann.

acequion

I watched Prime Time, something I wouldn't normally do. I thought Varadkar was useless and O Callaghan was all nicey nice. Couple of tougher questions for effect such as "should we close schools?" but no probing. And of course he just parroted out the line, "No we're not closing schools", international evidence and yada yada. Now I'm a teacher and have been happy to go out to school but there is no doubting that numbers are rising in schools but no we mustn't close schools. Class dismissed there.:rolleyes: As for "will all this be policed?" cue a totally pathetic politician style non committal answer. Translation, No it won't be policed, they're just relying as always on public goodwill.

I thought the hairdresser was excellent, really made her case in a clear, dignified fashion. And you'd have to agree and wonder wtf they're doing closing these businesses. The restaurant guy was just too apologetic for my liking.

Here we go again down the same old road and god only knows what will happen next. Varadkar promising dizzying amounts of money which will be financed just how??? Borrowing?? And for how long?? You really would have to be terrified for when financial reality comes crashing down around us all.

That will be the big mutant that will trigger the long hangover from this nightmare. I just shudder at the thoughts of how bad it will be. We were never more lacking in proper leadership.

acequion

rusty cole wrote: »

in Bold, no idea what that means, who "does" from this?? you know relatives of work colleagues, sure you do... 180 degrees of separation there for all to see, my neighbors dog has a friend who's a relative... sure... give some context to your experiential tales of woe, what age was the intensive care relative, weight? health status? wow, I'm fairly socially networked and know not a soul with it and yet you're in touch with at risk groups a plenty?? or a complete spoofer, my money is on the latter. Newsflash, everyone with conditions are fearful, that's the point most are making there Samuel Hahnemann.

I agree. I'm out and about all the time, teach in a huge school and to date I know of one death among my acquaintances, a 90 year old man with a plethora of underlying conditions. I would know of up to 5 adults who've tested positive, ranging from asymptomatic, to mild symptoms to just one who was bed ridden for a few days back in the first wave but made a perfect recovery [a 62 year old] A few kids at school who tested positive but came bouncing back after their 14 days looking the very picture of health.

Sorry but all this terror and hypochondria is completely lost on me and I find the constant drama and over reacting beyond tiresome.