Relaxation of Restrictions, Part VII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

Stormyteacup

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Here is the trend on positive rate, cases and hospitalisation - scales are adjusted so can be overlayed, but its real data and positive rate leading cases leading hospitalisations is clear

It doesn’t answer my question of why if the rate of hospitalisation stayed level for all of September and October at 3% despite big rise in positive cases, and why we now have a hospitalisation rate of 6.59%.

Surely if 3% of positive cases need hospitalisation across two full months that’s what you expect regardless of number positive cases? Is that not the whole point of the 14 day data - to show those trends?

3% of 1,500 ended up in hospital beginning of September.
3% of 5,000 end of September
3% of 10,000 middle of October.

We are now at 6.59% Covid positive in hospital. You should logically expect 3%.

The rate was steady and reflected a correlation between positive cases and hospitalisation. Until you get into November, when that rate has more than doubled.

This is what I’m trying to understand - my interpretation is that doubling of hospitalisation rate is down to HAIs only.

Captain_Crash

Deleted User wrote: »

Here is the trend on positive rate, cases and hospitalisation - scales are adjusted so can be overlayed, but its real data and positive rate leading cases leading hospitalisations is clear

Do you have a copy of this graph with values on the left.. its very interesting and thank you for providing it. Its easy to see a correlation but, is the % rise the same?

ie, did positive cases rise lets say 50%, but hospital cases only rise 20%? (those numbers are made up for example purposes) Do you get what I mean?

Common sense dictates that if 10% of the population is ginger, then 10% of people in hospital will statistically be ginger. So is the rise in cases in line with the increase in positive rate/tests.. or in line with the increase of % of population who have covid? This is key.

Sorry if that's all blabbery, but I hope you understand what I'm asking

irishguy1983

Spudman_20000 wrote: »

Not surprised the government are dilly dallying about reopening pubs and restaurants as they know full well there cannot be a 3rd lockdown, and closures of businesses that it would bring.

If there is another lockdown, most of these businesses will never reopen. January and February are already woeful months for restaurants and pubs and business owners will want guarantees that they're not going to be told to shut again in 2021 if they were to reopen in December.

Can’t be another lockdown? In my head I am fully expecting a 3rd lockdown in Jan/Feb.....Obviously I cant be 100% but preparing myself mentally shall we say - find it easier that way...I kind of thought everyone felt a 3rd lockdown was inevitable - maybe not so

Rrrrrr2

irishguy1983 wrote: »

Can’t be another lockdown? In my head I am fully expecting a 3rd lockdown in Jan/Feb.....Obviously I cant be 100% but preparing myself mentally shall we say - find it easier that way...I kind of thought everyone felt a 3rd lockdown was inevitable - maybe not so

The narrative has turned massively against lockdowns (the word has turned toxic). There will be restrictions but what we are forced into now I don't think we will see again. The pushback has been swift and surprised me

Stormyteacup

Stormyteacup wrote: »

It doesn’t answer my question of why if the rate of hospitalisation stayed level for all of September and October at 3% despite big rise in positive cases, and why we now have a hospitalisation rate of 6.59%.

Surely if 3% of positive cases need hospitalisation across two full months that’s what you expect regardless of number positive cases? Is that not the whole point of the 14 day data - to show those trends?

3% of 1,500 ended up in hospital beginning of September.
3% of 5,000 end of September
3% of 10,000 middle of October.

We are now at 6.59% Covid positive in hospital. You should logically expect 3%.

The rate was steady and reflected a correlation between positive cases and hospitalisation. Until you get into November, when that rate has more than doubled.

This is what I’m trying to understand - my interpretation is that doubling of hospitalisation rate is down to HAIs only.

100% of hospital acquired infections are hospitalisations and there were large hospital outbreaks in November. It really is that simple

timmyntc

Deleted User wrote: »

100% of hospital acquired infections are hospitalisations and there were large hospital outbreaks in November. It really is that simple

Hospital acquired infections should not dictate policy in the wider community - only hospital admissions (admissions with Covid) should be counted.
Hospital acquired should be clearly separated from admissions - they should even explicitly mention it in their daily press conferences.

X number of new cases, Y of which are hospital acquired.
Z number hospitalised.


They are very clearly misrepresenting the data in order to further their agenda and buy public support - with their "worry index"

Captain_Crash

Captain_Crash wrote: »

Do you have a copy of this graph with values on the left.. its very interesting and thank you for providing it. Its easy to see a correlation but, is the % rise the same?

ie, did positive cases rise lets say 50%, but hospital cases only rise 20%? (those numbers are made up for example purposes) Do you get what I mean?

Common sense dictates that if 10% of the population is ginger, then 10% of people in hospital will statistically be ginger. So is the rise in cases in line with the increase in positive rate/tests.. or in line with the increase of % of population who have covid? This is key.

Sorry if that's all blabbery, but I hope you understand what I'm asking

Excellent suggestion. There is actually a strong correlation on % change

timmyntc

timmyntc wrote: »

Hospital acquired infections should not dictate policy in the wider community - only hospital admissions (admissions with Covid) should be counted.
Hospital acquired should be clearly separated from admissions - they should even explicitly mention it in their daily press conferences.

X number of new cases, Y of which are hospital acquired.
Z number hospitalised.

Hospital acquired infections are reflective of what is happening in the community. Covid doesn't spontaneously appear

Spudman_20000

irishguy1983 wrote: »

Can’t be another lockdown? In my head I am fully expecting a 3rd lockdown in Jan/Feb.....Obviously I cant be 100% but preparing myself mentally shall we say - find it easier that way...I kind of thought everyone felt a 3rd lockdown was inevitable - maybe not so

I would be very confident we won't see level 5 restrictions again, unless the government want to perform the final coup de grace on a lot of businesses in 2021.

SNNUS

drunkmonkey wrote: »

I doubt it where did you see that, Tony was pretty optimistic we'd see a jump in cases Tomorrow.

https://twitter.com/RiochtConor2/status/1330943520417460225?s=19

SNNUS

Ah ok not 101 added to one days figures.

FintanMcluskey

timmyntc wrote: »

Hospital acquired infections should not dictate policy in the wider community - only hospital admissions (admissions with Covid) should be counted.
Hospital acquired should be clearly separated from admissions - they should even explicitly mention it in their daily press conferences.

X number of new cases, Y of which are hospital acquired.
Z number hospitalised.


They are very clearly misrepresenting the data in order to further their agenda and buy public support - with their "worry index"

Hospital transmission should not be included in the daily reports.

We do need to know what’s the cause though, obviously something is gravely wrong with the procedures followed by those working in healthcare.

Weren’t doctors and poor hygiene practice found to be the cause of MRSA transmission in hospitals previously.

http://www.healthcarebusinesstech.com/doctors-hand-hygiene/

Hopefully the healthcare workers start to wash their hands properly and actually take the vaccine when it’s approved

timmyntc

Deleted User wrote: »

Hospital acquired infections are reflective of what is happening in the community. Covid doesn't spontaneously appear

Healthcare workers & patients are acquiring Covid from within hospitals - not from the community. The number of patients acquiring covid after being admitted to hospital is proof enough of this.

Also healthcare workers are far more likely to get infected with covid than anyone else - is it because they are having more house parties and getting it from the community? Or maybe its because hospitals are a hotbed of infection.

SNNUS

SNNUS wrote: »

https://twitter.com/RiochtConor2/status/1330943520417460225?s=19

People really will see anything they want in data wont they. 4 of 9 days in the data shown have higher cases, 5 of 9 have higher swabs. The average difference is 10 cases

FintanMcluskey

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Hospital transmission should not be included in the daily reports.

We do need to know what’s the cause though, obviously something is gravely wrong with the procedures followed by those working in healthcare.

Weren’t doctors and poor hygiene practice found to be the cause of MRSA transmission in hospitals previously.

http://www.healthcarebusinesstech.com/doctors-hand-hygiene/

Hopefully the healthcare workers start to wash their hands properly and actually take the vaccine when it’s approved

Old people don't count, and now hospital cases don't count.

Stormyteacup

[Deleted User] wrote: »

100% of hospital acquired infections are hospitalisations and there were large hospital outbreaks in November. It really is that simple

I don’t agree it’s that simple. Positive cases correlated to hospital admissions at an expected rate.

Then they didn’t. On account of HAI’s.

What is the rate of HAI’s? Is it increasing - maybe it is increasing exponentially?

This is an important factor now in anticipating hospitalisations - whereas prior to November, positive cases were enough of an indicator.

Not sure why so much defection and minimising of a piece of information that impacts on the restrictions society are under.

Example; admissions are falling, case positivity rate falling - restrictions working.
Hospitals still under pressure on account of HAI’s - more restrictions needed to compensate for that.

FintanMcluskey

Deleted User wrote: »

Old people don't count, and now hospital cases don't count.

Separate them at least so we are aware where the infection occurs.

Why do you think old people don’t count?

They are humans like the rest of us

FintanMcluskey

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Separate them at least so we are aware where the infection occurs.

Why do you think old people don’t count?

They are humans like the rest of us

Has been the mantra on this thread for months

Stormyteacup

Stormyteacup wrote: »

I don’t agree it’s that simple. Positive cases correlated to hospital admissions at an expected rate.

Then they didn’t. On account of HAI’s.

What is the rate of HAI’s? Is it increasing - maybe it is increasing exponentially?

This is an important factor now in anticipating hospitalisations - whereas prior to November, positive cases were enough of an indicator.

Not sure why so much defection and minimising of a piece of information that impacts on the restrictions society are under.

Example; admissions are falling, case positivity rate falling - restrictions working.
Hospitals still under pressure on account of HAI’s - more restrictions needed to compensate for that.

Who is arguing for more restrictions?

FintanMcluskey

Deleted User wrote: »

Has been the mantra on this thread for months

No one said they don’t count.

An adult conversation has been happening here for months though, about the fact Covid has been lethal to those beyond life expectancy with serious underlying issues.

In a couple of days the official death stats for the 1st 6 months of this year will be released.

I imagine it will make for grim reading, perhaps the worst figures since death stat recording began in Ireland.

Don't Chute!

Just heard on Newstalk there Pat Kenny referring to people who were drinking on the streets as “mobs” and the guy he was speaking to called them “mobs AND yobs”. I wonder does that include Varadker after his day in the Phoenix Park? They never said.
I hope you’re all happy now you bunch of despicable granny killing beasts!

Thierry12

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Hospital acquired infections are reflective of what is happening in the community. Covid doesn't spontaneously appear

They are hospital acquired because of incompetence and ineptitude, all down to HSE policies

Nothing to do with the community

Covid is an airborne virus, Airborne

All the washing hands, surfaces and all that crap are a waste of time and money.

In our hospitals people are drinking coffees, eating in canteens, putting Covid patients in the same building as non Covid patients, all thr restrictions are for nothing right now.

Virus is in the air, doesn't matterif Covid ward is 10 floors up in the same building, air travels everywhere indoors.

If we get Covid under control they need to make 1 hospital in the country in Dublin a Covid only hospital

No bringing Covid patients to Limerick, Cork, Galway, Letterkenny and infecting the whole bloody country

Its an Airborne virus, it needs biohazard level policies to stop it

If they wont take it serious with biohazard policies, then finish the lockdowns imo.

Cork2021

It’s amount of people that’ll be unemployed after all of this is what’s scary not IFR of covid.
When you constantly have public sector ‘doctors’ ‘scientists’ or ‘professors’ who will never be on PUP or the dole ridiculing certain sectors of our society that haven’t even been open 3 months this year and still blaming them when closed is just plain ignorance at its best. If I saw the likes of Ryan, Killeen, Staines on the street I’d be hard pushed not to give them a crack!!

FintanMcluskey

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

No one said they don’t count.

An adult conversation has been happening here for months though, about the fact Covid has been lethal to those beyond life expectancy with serious underlying issues.

In a couple of days the official death stats for the 1st 6 months of this year will be released.

I imagine it will make for grim reading, perhaps the worst figures since death stat recording began in Ireland.

The underling assumption has been that someone at 82 is about to die anyway, and this is a fundamental misunderstanding or misrepresentation of life expectancy

Don't Chute!

Also all over the news bulletins that “the government want level 3 but NPHET want a more cautious approach”.
Ok that’s fine NPHET thanks for your input there now kindly **** right off please.

Stormyteacup

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Who is arguing for more restrictions?

You don’t think they’ll be needed again if hospital cases are increasing to the point of putting pressure on staff in hospitals?

Thierry12

Thierry12 wrote: »

They are hospital acquired because of incompetence and ineptitude, all down to HSE policies

Nothing to do with the community

Covid is an airborne virus, Airborne

All the washing hands, surfaces and all that crap are a waste of time and money.

In our hospitals people are drinking coffees, eating in canteens, putting Covid patients in the same building as non Covid patients, all thr restrictions are for nothing right now.

Virus is in the air, doesn't matterif Covid ward is 10 floors up in the same building, air travels everywhere indoors.

If we get Covid under control they need to make 1 hospital in the country in Dublin a Covid only hospital

No bringing Covid patients to Limerick, Cork, Galway, Letterkenny and infecting the whole bloody country

Its an Airborne virus, it needs biohazard level policies to stop it

If they wont take it serious with biohazard policies, then finish the lockdowns imo.

Hospitals are coping better with this in Ireland than almost anywhere else in Europe

timmyntc

Deleted User wrote: »

Who is arguing for more restrictions?

People are arguing to keep us in level 5, or that when we re-emerge from lockdown in December, that restaurants and pubs stay shut.

The number of hospital acquired cases are not representative of the levels in the community - and should not be taken into account when drawing up restrictions for the wider community.

Stormyteacup

timmyntc wrote: »

People are arguing to keep us in level 5, or that when we re-emerge from lockdown in December, that restaurants and pubs stay shut.

The number of hospital acquired cases are not representative of the levels in the community - and should not be taken into account when drawing up restrictions for the wider community.

Unfortunately with finite resources and beds, hospital acquired infections will most definitely impact on the restriction level. Depends on how many serious cases there are of HAI’s - are they prolonging average stay requiring resources or are they mild cases and release date not impacted?

What’s infuriating is what is being offered up by government, NPHET, media and fellow human beings as to what is the cause of restrictions when in fact it may be the case that level 3 was manageable for hospital admissions and it was the increasing rate of HAI’s that made them pull the trigger to level 5.

Thierry12

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Hospitals are coping better with this in Ireland than almost anywhere else in Europe

Europe are idiots

Look East