Relaxation of Restrictions, Part VII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

arctictree

Lundstram wrote: »

Do a poll on Tiktok or Snapchat where 14-35 year olds inhabit. You'll see a reverse.

It's a bit like Sam McConkey doing a Twitter poll, results will of course be heavily in favour of lockdown.

Niall Boylan.. results heavily against lockdown.

You see where I'm going with this? Not hard to understand really. Two extreme examples above but relevant.

Also, busy people don't really take part in polls. Pensioners have much more time to take a call and chat to a pollster for 10 minutes, so polls are skewed to this demographic.

A lot of “experts “ and politicians lately saying expect restrictions for 2021.

A lot of people I speak to saying they are just sick of it at this point.

Compliance will fall apart again if people have no hope.

pgj2015

people may be feed up of the restrictions but does anybody want to pay a 100 euro fine for breaking the 5km travel restriction? money isnt that plentiful for a lot of people these days. I think they should raise the 100 euro fine to maybe 400 euro.

Penfailed

arctictree wrote: »

Also, busy people don't really take part in polls. Pensioners have much more time to take a call and chat to a pollster for 10 minutes, so polls are skewed to this demographic.

Most polling companies get the opinions of a cross section of age/gender/demographics. They do so to avoid the skewed results that you seem to think are there.

FintanMcluskey

Deleted User wrote: »

A lot of “experts “ and politicians lately saying expect restrictions for 2021.

A lot of people I speak to saying they are just sick of it at this point.

Compliance will fall apart again if people have no hope.

The country has lost all common sense and descended into a police state.

The Gardai are towing vehicles out of the Wicklow mountains and impounding them while issuing fines to the occupants.

I reckon there will be films made about this

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/ten-people-fined-for-breaching-5km-rule-near-wicklow-mountains-1.4460365%3fmode=amp

Some tow trucks were removing two vehicles at a time; one on the back of the truck and another towed behind.

One Garda source familiar with the operation told The Irish Times that gardaí would have towed more vehicles away but the way cars had been parked blocked access.

Penfailed

Pitch n Putt wrote: »

Most people in the country shouldn’t even know who Tony Holohan is let alone see his face on every media outlet daily.

His job is to advise the government not to admonish the people of this country everyday.

Should never have been seen on a television screen but due to our inept government he has pretty much taken over.

I was just watching ITV there. The adverts came on and there was one from the NHS featuring the north's CMO, Michael McBride. I'd say, if I was watching in England, the same ad would've featured Chris Witty. I listen to quite a bit of BBC radio and also LBC. They regularly have the CMO (and sometimes the CSO) on the air. I don't understand why people get so worked up in this thread about the publicity afforded to our CMO. It's not just an Irish phenomenon.

Lundstram

pgj2015 wrote: »

people may be feed up of the restrictions but does anybody want to pay a 100 euro fine for breaking the 5km travel restriction? money isnt that plentiful for a lot of people these days. I think they should raise the 100 euro fine to maybe 400 euro.

:pac:

batman_oh

pgj2015 wrote: »

people may be feed up of the restrictions but does anybody want to pay a 100 euro fine for breaking the 5km travel restriction? money isnt that plentiful for a lot of people these days. I think they should raise the 100 euro fine to maybe 400 euro.

To achieve what? 6km isn't the cause of what's happening now

Graham

Lundstram wrote: »

Quite funny seeing posters justifying themselves by posting polls from RTE and some other random news outlet. :pac:

because the gut feelings of a bunch of anti-restriction posters would be a much more reliable indicator of the mood of the nation? :rolleyes:

arctictree

Penfailed wrote: »

Most polling companies get the opinions of a cross section of age/gender/demographics. They do so to avoid the skewed results that you seem to think are there.

OK, I'll rephrase that, the results only show people that have the time to answer these calls.

pgj2015

batman_oh wrote: »

To achieve what? 6km isn't the cause of what's happening now

Do you not know why they have imposed travel restrictions? its not like they are saying dont wear red jumpers or you will be fined 100 euro.

hamburgham

Don't Chute! wrote: »

Yeah stopping people going somewhere they are EXTREMELY unlikely to catch/spread anything. Meanwhile in hospitals and nursing homes.........

Yes,most likely trying to get a bit of exercise. I always feel great after a bit of walking in the Wicklow mountains.

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

A lot of “experts “ and politicians lately saying expect restrictions for 2021.

A lot of people I speak to saying they are just sick of it at this point.

Compliance will fall apart again if people have no hope.

Correct. They're on a different orbit if they expect those turfed out of employment to remain passive vessels by April. The cracked hypocrisy of the power-brokers and influential voices all on substantial wages telling Paddy to take his soup. Open defiance will break out widely should valid concessions not be made after the most vulnerable and elderly are vaccinated. Twelve months of this enforced servitude more than enough, I want to get back to work and have a semblance of a fulfilled existence. Those untouchables at the top do not comprehend my struggle and those of the other half million ejected from the workforce, mark my words they'll receive a sharp reminder yet.

Gael23

Agree, something needs to give once group 3 is done

arctictree

arctictree wrote: »

OK, I'll rephrase that, the results only show people that have the time to answer these calls.

Polling companies will keep calling numbers until they get a representative sample. Reputable ones at least.

GazzaL

From talking with a number of (non-hospitality) business owners over the last few days, they're all planning on re-opening at the start of February regardless of what restrictions are in place. Some could arguably still be open now depending on how you interpret the guidelines. In another two weeks, they'll all be turning on the lights and opening the doors.

bb1234567

Lundstram wrote: »

Do a poll on Tiktok or Snapchat where 14-35 year olds inhabit. You'll see a reverse.

It's a bit like Sam McConkey doing a Twitter poll, results will of course be heavily in favour of lockdown.

Niall Boylan.. results heavily against lockdown.

You see where I'm going with this? Not hard to understand really. Two extreme examples above but relevant.

Yeh good point but a lot of the government polls are random selection. My mum was asked to carry out an opinion poll about restrictoins back in Setptember or October I think it was but she was the only one in the family contacted for it

pgj2015

GazzaL wrote: »

From talking with a number of (non-hospitality) business owners over the last few days, they're all planning on re-opening at the start of February regardless of what restrictions are in place. Some could arguably still be open now depending on how you interpret the guidelines. In another two weeks, they'll all be turning on the lights and opening the doors.

yeah, thats what the guy who owned the gym thought as well and the publican who was going to test everyone who came in. worked out well for them.:rolleyes:

growleaves

Graham wrote: »

because the gut feelings of a bunch of anti-restriction posters would be a much more reliable indicator of the mood of the nation? :rolleyes:

Yes.

GazzaL

pgj2015 wrote: »

yeah, thats what the guy who owned the gym thought as well and the publican who was going to test everyone who came in. worked out well for them.:rolleyes:

They'll be doing it quietly without any fanfare. The worst thing that can happen is that they'll be told to close the door.

Don't Chute!

growleaves wrote: »

Yes.

Amazing insight from both of you there, well done.

growleaves

Don't Chute! wrote: »

Amazing insight from both of you there, well done.

Lol

CalamariFritti

pgj2015 wrote: »

Do you not know why they have imposed travel restrictions? its not like they are saying dont wear red jumpers or you will be fined 100 euro.

Some of it is not far off it though.

Boggles

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

The country has lost all common sense and descended into a police state.

The Gardai are towing vehicles out of the Wicklow mountains and impounding them while issuing fines to the occupants.

I reckon there will be films made about this

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/ten-people-fined-for-breaching-5km-rule-near-wicklow-mountains-1.4460365%3fmode=amp

Some of the gardaí involved in this operation have been based in this region for years and they said they had never seen anything like the volume of people up there yesterday; that the numbers wouldn’t even allow for social distancing despite the vastness of the area.”

“You are talking about thousands of people going there, so compliance (with Covid-19 restrictions) wasn’t great. But the operation we have seems to have deterred more people today.

I imagine they only fined the mouthy simpletons who banged on about their fraydumbs.

normanoffside

Boggles wrote: »

Jaysus Norman you told me you couldn't go for a meal during the summer because you were too busy and now here you are off to the sun next week.

Fair play to you, send us a postcard.

Checking in from sunny Lanzarote. Had to show a negative PCR test at the gate on Saturday and again at Lanzarote Airport.

Otherwise I was nervous before travelling as Lanzarote had moved to Maximum level of restrictions* on Friday and I wasn't sure if the flight would go ahead as a result (due to a spike after Christmas like ourselves).
But once arrived the local taxi driver and hotel were delighted to see we had got here.

*Maximum restrictions here means that all bars and restaurants can only serve outdoors and there is a 10pm curfew. Otherwise all shops including hairdressers are open as normal. The only pain is having to wear a mask on the street (but this was here even in low level alert).

Just back to the apartments after watching the match, had 5 pints and a feed for €15. Feels great to be acting as normal again. I don't mean this post to wind up people but honestly at one point today I had a lightbulb moment and realised this was the most normal I have felt in a year.

Now to WFH from tomorrow...

Dr. Bre

normanoffside wrote: »

Checking in from sunny Lanzarote. Had to show a negative PCR test at the gate on Saturday and again at Lanzarote Airport.

Otherwise I was nervous before travelling as Lanzarote had moved to Maximum level of restrictions* on Friday and I wasn't sure if the flight would go ahead as a result (due to a spike after Christmas like ourselves).
But once arrived the local taxi driver and hotel were delighted to see we had got here.

*Maximum restrictions here means that all bars and restaurants can only serve outdoors and there is a 10pm curfew. Otherwise all shops including hairdressers are open as normal. The only pain is having to wear a mask on the street (but this was here even in low level alert).

Just back to the apartments after watching the match, had 5 pints and a feed for €15. Feels great to be acting as normal again. I don't mean this post to wind up people but honestly at one point today I had a lightbulb moment and realised this was the most normal I have felt in a year.

Now to WFH from tomorrow...

Stay at home

normanoffside

Dr. Bre wrote: »

Stay at home

Will do Dr Bre, thanks for the advice

Don't Chute!

growleaves wrote: »

Lol

And again! You’re on a roll!!

growleaves

Don't Chute! wrote: »

And again! You’re on a roll!!

Let me take a stab at explaining my thoughts so.

Basically what it comes down to for me is that intuition and personal observation are some of the most reliable methods of perception which a person can rely on.

What internet data nerds sneer at as "anecdata" used to be called experience.

From experience we know things and can learn things.

The idea that statistical abstractions are reality itself has crept in in recent years and should be rejected. Abstract thought is only a (partially true) representation of reality at best.

Media is, as the name suggests, a mediation of reality. In other words instead of perceiving things for yourself directly you allow a mediator (a middleman) to tell you what you are to perceive.

The total relegation of direct perception and intuition in favour of 'official' communications is now supposed to be so obvious that anything else is laughable. In fact we are marinaded in spin, half-truths, medico-scientific jargon, and unproven assumptions.

In the last gasp the government itself will admit they lied (e.g. about masks) for 'good reason' - or sometimes even joe soap government supporters will discuss the best PR techniques 'to get people to go along' (as on the main thread).

Newsflash: admitted liars are not a trustworthy source of information

growleaves

growleaves wrote: »

Let me take a stab at explaining my thoughts so.

Basically what it comes down to for me is that intuition and personal observation are some of the most reliable methods of perception which a person can rely on.

What internet data nerds sneer at as "anecdata" used to be called experience.

From experience we know things and can learn things.

The idea that statistical abstractions are reality itself has crept in in recent years and should be rejected. Abstract thought is only a (partially true) representation of reality at best.

Media is, as the name suggests, a mediation of reality. In other words instead of perceiving things for yourself directly you allow a mediator (a middleman) to tell you what you are to perceive.

The total relegation of direct perception and intuition in favour of 'official' communications is now supposed to be so obvious that anything else is laughable. In fact we are marinaded in spin, half-truths, medico-scientific jargon, and unproven assumptions.

In the last gasp the government itself will admit they lied (e.g. about masks) for 'good reason' - or sometimes even joe soap government supporters will discuss the best PR techniques 'to get people to go along' (as on the main thread).

Newsflash: admitted liars are not a trustworthy source of information

Perception is a slave to cognitive biases.

A repeating cycle of observe - interpret - test - refine is long established as producing the most accurate models of how the works works, in any field

growleaves

Deleted User wrote: »

Perception is a slave to cognitive biases.

A repeating cycle of observe - interpret - test - refine is long established as producing the most accurate models of how the works works, in any field

I'm not just talking about scientific processes here though, I'm talking about everything and anything.

If I walk around my city and see a lot of unafraid people out getting on with things I can draw some inferences from that without producing a 'model of public behaviour in response to the pandemic and mitigaton methods'.

Especially when I think back to having walked around the same streets last March and seeing the looks on people's faces and the almost physical suspicion gripping them.

That is a qualitative change of some kind.

growleaves

growleaves wrote: »

I'm not just talking about scientific processes here though, I'm talking about everything and anything.

If I walk around my city and see a lot of unafraid people out getting on with things I can draw some inferences from that without producing a 'model of public behaviour in response to the pandemic and mitigaton methods'.

Especially when I think back to having walked around the same streets last March and seeing the looks on people's faces and the almost physical suspicion gripping them.

That is a qualitative change of some kind.

And it’s measurable and testable. The google mobility data is free for all to see. People have gotten used to living with the changes that have come about. That’s why people are more relaxed. It’s become routine. Doesn’t mean people don’t see the need for action

Mr. Karate

GazzaL wrote: »

From talking with a number of (non-hospitality) business owners over the last few days, they're all planning on re-opening at the start of February regardless of what restrictions are in place. Some could arguably still be open now depending on how you interpret the guidelines. In another two weeks, they'll all be turning on the lights and opening the doors.

They're already rebelling in Italy and Poland.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9tE_RLkErRk

So its about time the Irish did as well.

[Deleted User]

[Deleted User] wrote: »

And it’s measurable and testable. The google mobility data is free for all to see. People have gotten used to living with the changes that have come about. That’s why people are more relaxed. It’s become routine. Doesn’t mean people don’t see the need for action

Nobody that I know is getting used to living like this. Everybody is dying for normality to return.

[Deleted User]

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Nobody that I know is getting used to living like this. Everybody is dying for normality to return.

They are dying to return to normality but used to dealing with the daily inconveniences.

Mr. Karate

Graham wrote: »

because the gut feelings of a bunch of anti-restriction posters would be a much more reliable indicator of the mood of the nation? :rolleyes:

"Hilary has a 98% chance of victory." Who won again?

Polls aren't indicative either since the the host of the polls can manipulate it to get their desired result.

Mr. Karate

Mr. Karate wrote: »

"Hilary has a 98% chance of victory." Who won again?

Polls aren't indicative either since the the host of the polls can manipulate it to get their desired result.

Was closer to 70% on the eve of election, and results were within the margin of error. What the polls couldn’t detect was where 60k votes in PA, WI and MI would go. Polls are accurate with in a broad trend but not do much at the smaller scale. That’s why it is both true to say that while the polls on restrictions reflect to opinion of society in general, they don’t reflect some individual groups within society

GazzaL

https://twitter.com/otwieramy

This twitter account highlights some of the businesses like restaurants, bars, hotels and recreational activity venues etc. that are re-opening in Poland despite the restrictions. It's a long list! Great to see.

johnboy1298

Deleted User wrote: »

And it’s measurable and testable. The google mobility data is free for all to see. People have gotten used to living with the changes that have come about. That’s why people are more relaxed. It’s become routine. Doesn’t mean people don’t see the need for action

Did you even look at the mobility data? :rolleyes: 23% increase in residential movement and a big sustained spike from when the stricter restrictions came back in autumn until the end of the year. All this shows is that people arent going to places that are shut & are getting on with life and getting used to socialising in the only place that's open, their friends houses.

johnboy1298

johnboy1298 wrote: »

Did you even look at the mobility data? :rolleyes: 23% increase in residential movement and a big sustained spike from when the stricter restrictions came back in autumn until the end of the year. All this shows is that people arent going to places that are shut & are getting on with life and getting used to socialising in the only place that's open, their friends houses.

I never said that movement was as low as in April. I said the data was there for all to see, do well done you. Restrictions are not as tight as they were in April

johnboy1298

Deleted User wrote: »

I never said that movement was as low as in April. I said the data was there for all to see, do well done you. Restrictions are not as tight as they were in April

Restrictions are just as tight as they were, people are just ignoring them.

Aph2016

Genuinely interested to know how families are surviving on the PUP with no mortgage breaks, especially with restrictions expected to last until March if not April, probably have some credit cards to still pay if from the Christmas period, savings probably depleted from last year. Must be tough having the government put you out of business.

Don't Chute!

growleaves wrote: »

Let me take a stab at explaining my thoughts so.

Basically what it comes down to for me is that intuition and personal observation are some of the most reliable methods of perception which a person can rely on.

What internet data nerds sneer at as "anecdata" used to be called experience.

From experience we know things and can learn things.

The idea that statistical abstractions are reality itself has crept in in recent years and should be rejected. Abstract thought is only a (partially true) representation of reality at best.

Media is, as the name suggests, a mediation of reality. In other words instead of perceiving things for yourself directly you allow a mediator (a middleman) to tell you what you are to perceive.

The total relegation of direct perception and intuition in favour of 'official' communications is now supposed to be so obvious that anything else is laughable. In fact we are marinaded in spin, half-truths, medico-scientific jargon, and unproven assumptions.

In the last gasp the government itself will admit they lied (e.g. about masks) for 'good reason' - or sometimes even joe soap government supporters will discuss the best PR techniques 'to get people to go along' (as on the main thread).

Newsflash: admitted liars are not a trustworthy source of information

Actually I have to admit I completely misunderstood your posts! I actually thought you were agreeing with him! Sorry man, my fault. Friends?🙂

Graham

growleaves wrote: »

Let me take a stab at explaining my thoughts so.

Basically what it comes down to for me is that intuition and personal observation are some of the most reliable methods of perception which a person can rely on.

What internet data nerds sneer at as "anecdata" used to be called experience.

From experience we know things and can learn things.

The idea that statistical abstractions are reality itself has crept in in recent years and should be rejected. Abstract thought is only a (partially true) representation of reality at best.

Media is, as the name suggests, a mediation of reality. In other words instead of perceiving things for yourself directly you allow a mediator (a middleman) to tell you what you are to perceive.

The total relegation of direct perception and intuition in favour of 'official' communications is now supposed to be so obvious that anything else is laughable. In fact we are marinaded in spin, half-truths, medico-scientific jargon, and unproven assumptions.

In the last gasp the government itself will admit they lied (e.g. about masks) for 'good reason' - or sometimes even joe soap government supporters will discuss the best PR techniques 'to get people to go along' (as on the main thread).

Newsflash: admitted liars are not a trustworthy source of information

So to paraphrase; ignore facts, ignore data go with your feelings because it's all a conspiracy.

What utter tosh.

dublin_paul

Mr. Karate wrote: »

They're already rebelling in Italy and Poland.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9tE_RLkErRk

So its about time the Irish did as well.

That'll get shut down very fast surely, dangerous unscientific rebellion during a pandemic is madness regardless of your feelings behind a keyboard

Aph2016

dublin_paul wrote: »

That'll get shut down very fast surely, dangerous unscientific rebellion during a pandemic is madness regardless of your feelings behind a keyboard

It's not madness when you can't put food on your table.

Silentcorner

What is unscientific are lockdowns.

There is no science or precedent in lockdowns.

The government says so, that is it!

bb1234567

growleaves wrote: »

I'm not just talking about scientific processes here though, I'm talking about everything and anything.

If I walk around my city and see a lot of unafraid people out getting on with things I can draw some inferences from that without producing a 'model of public behaviour in response to the pandemic and mitigaton methods'.

Especially when I think back to having walked around the same streets last March and seeing the looks on people's faces and the almost physical suspicion gripping them.

That is a qualitative change of some kind.

And why do you think this issue should be free of scrutiny under the usual scientific processes?
You can draw inferences, but they're not necessarily reliablle or showing the full picture and that's why polls are the only way of gauging opinon of a large number of people who you don't come into contact with regularly

GazzaL

dublin_paul wrote: »

That'll get shut down very fast surely, dangerous unscientific rebellion during a pandemic is madness regardless of your feelings behind a keyboard

The WHO said lockdowns are a last resort. Anti-science NPHET have repeatedly ignored the WHO.

The police haven't been able to shut down premises in Poland and Italy, so the Gardai have no chance. In places like Lanzarote, at their highest restriction level, hospitality is still open!

Nobody will force you to go into a restaurant or pub. If you want to stay at home, that's your personal choice. I would choose to go to a restaurant and support local jobs.

dublin_paul

Aph2016 wrote: »

It's not madness when you can't put food on your table.

The government should be supporting these industries and workers like we do with the PUP