Relaxation of Restrictions, Part VII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

JRant

hmmm wrote: »

There was a plan - extended Level 3.

Instead the government folded to business lobby groups and the bleeding hearts wanting them to "save Christmas".

The restaurants and vitners were badly led. This is the second time they have pushed to reopen, and the second time they have been rushed into shutting down. Hopefully we finally going to get some "common sense" and stop trying to make pubs happen in a pandemic.

We can afford to borrow to bail out hospitality until the vaccines kick in - lets do that and stop asking for the impossible.

The plan was 6 weeks of lockdown just before Christmas with the carrot of a few weeks of reduced restrictions (level 3). Let's not pretend that all restrictions were lifted and it was a free for all, Level 3 is still very restrictive.

Those businesses were simply trying to salvage what little they could during their busiest time of year to stop them from completely folding. I don't blame them or the government.

I do have a problem with all these captain hindsights coming out and blaming the government and population for something even the experts didn't predict. We have to live with this thing and locking everything down indefinitely is certainly not the answer. We simply can't keep borrowing vast sums indefinitely to give people money not to work.

AndrewJRenko

Deleted User wrote: »

I think the thing that pis*es everyone off about the restrictions is the constant changing and “reviewing”.

They were announcing before Christmas that level 5 was returning. As soon as it returned, they were already have meetings and kite flying further restrictions.

Then they announce those restrictions. Now Leo is harping on today about further restrictions. He was saying about maybe restrictions around off licenses and times you can buy alcohol. And then saying businesses should prepare to be closed for the entire first quarter.

This just makes people angry. Come up with a plan and at least give it a chance. January is a dead month anyways. Numbers would drop without lockdown.

JRant wrote: »

To the main point though, the poster is absolutely correct. They need to make a plan and stick to it. If they want to lock her down fully then let's be having it. This nonsense of new restrictions being added almost daily and mixed messaging on schools and what's an essential business is a sure fire way to lose the general population.

The problem with this approach is that the virus tends not to have read the plan and doesn't play along. It does its own thing. It is not predictable. It is evolving.

That's why plans change.

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Never.

But neither has Sweden. “One hospital reports”

What Irish hospital had a full ICU, leaving the ICU docs to choose between which of their patients lives they choose to save?

Deleted User wrote: »

whether its "personal" or not I'd say Tony Holohan is on a crusade to redeem him name after his balls up of the Cervical Screening debacle. He wants that forgotten, brushed under the carpet, he wants to go in a blaze of glory, Late Late Show interviews, statues, books, gigantic murals on the walls of pubs .......(if that wasn't ironic !)

He’s the CMO in a pandemic, so communication is a fairly important part of his role. Why wouldn’t he take a slot on the Late Late to get the message out there?
I’ve no idea where you got this ‘blaze of glory’ stuff from someone who is trying to do an immensely pressured job while his wife is dying.

Deleted User wrote: »

Ultimately , the government/NPHET have no idea what they are doing. They copied the rest of the world last spring by going into lockdown and despite the fact that there is little evidence they are helping, it’s their only solution.

If only they had listened to all the experts on boards who have so much deep experience on this matter and prior experience of dealing with other pandemics or epidemics, eh?

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

If Michael D Higgins said in the morning restrictions are unconstitutional his credentials would immediately be questioned

Unless he posted it on boards.ie, when the lads would be saying; ‘oh interesting point, let’s give it a hearing despite him having absolutely no professional knowledge of these issues’

jams100 wrote: »

They must be asleep at that briefing, your man Nolan is soo boring, such a monotone voice, always comes across as a pessimist, even when numbers were improving

What would you suggest – a few jokes or a little song in between the key sections?

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

At least it’s now evident Covid was not the only agenda

https://alcoholireland.ie/dr-tony-holohan-chief-medical-officer-delivers-the-opening-address-at-alcohol-action-irelands-have-we-bottled-it-alcohol-marketing-and-young-people-conference/

“ Somehow we have let ourselves believe that alcohol is not really a problem in Ireland. We are complacent. We choose to ignore evidence of the huge and avoidable extent of the problem that alcohol wreaks on our society.”

Why would you think that a CMO speaking at an anti-alcohol conference ten years previous is evidence of some kind of agenda? He’s the CMO FFS. You do realise the extent of harm done by alcohol abuse AND the load it places on the healthcare systems?

FintanMcluskey

hmmm wrote: »

Fintan, you're smart enough to know that Covid is not mysteriously spreading through the ether. You've also had more than enough evidence of the importance of ventilation, close contact and extended contact as the cause of super-spread events.

So I think a year into this, acting like this is all a mystery is waring a bit thin.

So you can’t back up your claim about super spreader venues.

From what I can gather it’s the home, so socialising needs to be removed from that location into controlled environments with adequate social distance and ventilation like certain restaurants and other venues.

We still haven’t learned from March that people will socialise regardless because they are pre programmed to do so. It’s why people exist.

Solitary confinement is prison is considered the most severe punishment in prison for good reason.

The restrictions needed to be delicately handled to ensure compliance but those in charge decided to make one law for us and another for themselves

Boggles

JRant wrote: »

What's the discharge date per day I wonder?

Are the NPHET part of this group as well? The numbers have taken them and Nolan's modelling team completely by surprise and they wouldn't exactly be on the underestimate anything side.

To the main point though, the poster is absolutely correct. They need to make a plan and stick to it. If they want to lock her down fully then let's be having it. This nonsense of new restrictions being added almost daily and mixed messaging on schools and what's an essential business is a sure fire way to lose the general population. And Dr Tony making stupid statements like "this virus loves alcohol" does nothing for the general message that everyone should just stay at home.

Re the schools.

FF/FG political bollix 101.

Announce LC is to return without consulting the stake holders. Pretend their wasn't enough time.

When the stake holders raise concerns, ignore them, force them to act, U-Turn and blame them.

JRant

JRant wrote: »

The plan was 6 weeks of lockdown just before Christmas with the carrot of a few weeks of reduced restrictions (level 3). Let's not pretend that all restrictions were lifted and it was a free for all, Level 3 is still very restrictive.

Those businesses were simply trying to salvage what little they could during their busiest time of year to stop them from completely folding. I don't blame them or the government.

I do have a problem with all these captain hindsights coming out and blaming the government and population for something even the experts didn't predict. We have to live with this thing and locking everything down indefinitely is certainly not the answer. We simply can't keep borrowing vast sums indefinitely to give people money not to work.

There is plenty of evidence now that this virus peaks in countries whether they are in hard lockdown or no lockdown at all.

The models have been useless. A few Christmas dinners didn’t cause this. Only a fool would think that.

Boggles

Deleted User wrote: »

The models have been useless. A few Christmas dinners didn’t cause this. Only a fool would think that.

What "fool" claimed "a few Christmas dinners" caused the spike in infections?

That would be next level dangerously stupid.

Fúcking hell 3 dinners and boom.

hmmm

JRant wrote: »

I do have a problem with all these captain hindsights coming out and blaming the government and population for something even the experts didn't predict. We have to live with this thing and locking everything down indefinitely is certainly not the answer. We simply can't keep borrowing vast sums indefinitely to give people money not to work.

NPHET predicted this, and plenty of people on here predicted what would happen.
https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=115432283

Yet some people still don't seem to learn. Will we have to go through this a third time once case numbers start declining?

hmmm

Deleted User wrote: »

There is plenty of evidence now that this virus peaks in countries whether they are in hard lockdown or no lockdown at all.

The models have been useless. A few Christmas dinners didn’t cause this. Only a fool would think that.

The reason it peaks during lockdown is because lockdowns work to stop the numbers increasing. This is simple stuff.

zerosugarbuzz

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

So you can’t back up your claim about super spreader venues.

From what I can gather it’s the home, so socialising needs to be removed from that location into controlled environments with adequate social distance and ventilation like certain restaurants and other venues.

We still haven’t learned from March that people will socialise regardless because they are pre programmed to do so. It’s why people exist.

Solitary confinement is prison is considered the most severe punishment in prison for good reason.

The restrictions needed to be delicately handled to ensure compliance but those in charge decided to make one law for us and another for themselves

I don't think there is buy in for Level 5 this time round either. Plenty of comings and goings where I live. Nothing at all like last March. As has become usual politicians totally out of touch with whats going on on the ground.

Kermit.de.frog

hmmm wrote: »

NPHET predicted this, and plenty of people on here predicted what would happen.
https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=115432283

Yet some people still don't seem to learn. Will we have to go through this a third time once case numbers start declining?

+1. The reproduction number of the virus in this country today is between 2.4 and 3.0.

We had this firmly under control at the end of November.

It is just not credible no matter what your ideology or opinion to defend the relaxation of restrictions prior to Christmas given the situation we are now in.

And the idea no one predicted this is a complete falsehood.

The denial, where ever it's coming from, makes no sense because the restrictions will be there as long as it takes.

That won't change. Also it means it's a futile exercise anyway to try and convince people that the sky is in fact green.

Go figure.

Silentcorner

hmmm wrote: »

The reason it peaks during lockdown is because lockdowns work to stop the numbers increasing. This is simple stuff.

When it comes to hospitalisations and ICU numbers, there was no noticeable change between the numbers between Sept and Dec, where we went from so called level 2 to level 5 and back to level 3...

This surge is more like the first surge back in March, might be a little more severe becuase it is the time of year when our immune systems are at their weakest...it will peak and drop in about a 6 week timeframe (we are probably 10 days into it)...lockdown or no lockdown...outside of these two surges we have been testing healthy people so the daily numbers are irrelevant...handy for pumping fear and hysteria into all of us but that is about it.

The flu comes in 2 surges every year...it jams up our hospitals like clockwork.

hmmm

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

So you can’t back up your claim about super spreader venues.

From what I can gather it’s the home, so socialising needs to be removed from that location into controlled environments with adequate social distance and ventilation like certain restaurants and other venues.

If you're in an enclosed space with poor ventilation, it doesn't matter if you're 2 metres away from someone with Covid.

We still haven’t learned from March that people will socialise regardless because they are pre programmed to do so. It’s why people exist.

Solitary confinement is prison is considered the most severe punishment in prison for good reason.

Do you know what's worse? Dying alone from Covid.

Those people who are insisting on carrying on as normal need to grow up. Because many insisted on having a "normal" Christmas our case rates are now out of control, and there is a good chance that we will be denying ICU care to people who would otherwise survive over the next few weeks.

JRant

hmmm wrote: »

NPHET predicted this, and plenty of people on here predicted what would happen.
https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=115432283

Yet some people still don't seem to learn. Will we have to go through this a third time once case numbers start declining?

Sorry but you don't get to rewrite history that easily but give yourself a big part on the back for guessing right.

https://www.thejournal.ie/coronavirus-latest-figures-ireland-26-5303826-Dec2020/

So, here's the NPHET and Prof Nolan predicting cases could get as high as 1200 a day by earlier January if not sooner. This is from the 17th December. So I absolutely reject the idea that NPHET knew we would get to this level, much less that the government were "reckless" for reducing restrictions to a mere level 3 for 3 weeks.

Silentcorner

hmmm wrote: »

If you're in an enclosed space with poor ventilation, it doesn't matter if you're 2 metres away from someone with Covid.


Do you know what's worse? Dying alone from Covid.

Those people who are insisting on carrying on as normal need to grow up. Because many insisted on having a "normal" Christmas our case rates are now out of control, and there is a good chance that we will be denying ICU care to people who would otherwise survive over the next few weeks.

Nothing to do with our pathetic ICU capacity then?

hmmm

hmmm wrote: »

The reason it peaks during lockdown is because lockdowns work to stop the numbers increasing. This is simple stuff.

How sure are you on that though?

Lockdown 1: In my opinion, the warm weather and summer season had more to do with Covid disappearing than lockdown did. This is backed up by countries reopening in May and not having any spike until close to winter. It even disappeared in Sweden who didn’t lockdown at all.

Lockdown 2: There is no doubt the numbers improved. But it was very clear that we were never getting down to 50 that NPHET modelled. And we were starting to trend the wrong way before we even relaxed restrictions. Cases were already increasing in December before we even reached a time were relaxing restrictions should have been having an impact.

Lockdown probably does help to an extent. But not the extent that the experts and this forum tends to believe in my opinion.

JRant

Boggles wrote: »

Re the schools.

FF/FG political bollix 101.

Announce LC is to return without consulting the stake holders. Pretend their wasn't enough time.

When the stake holders raise concerns, ignore them, force them to act, U-Turn and blame them.

It's beyond daft. Ministers standing in an empty Dail telling teachers packed classrooms are safe and then announced that they themselves would only sit once a week with aax of 45 people allowed attend in the NEC. Talk about being completely gone deaf.

[Deleted User]

[Deleted User] wrote: »

How sure are you on that though?

Lockdown 1: In my opinion, the warm weather and summer season had more to do with Covid disappearing than lockdown did. This is backed up by countries reopening in May and not having any spike until close to winter. It even disappeared in Sweden who didn’t lockdown at all.

Lockdown 2: There is no doubt the numbers improved. But it was very clear that we were never getting down to 50 that NPHET modelled. And we were starting to trend the wrong way before we even relaxed restrictions. Cases were already increasing in December before we even reached a time were relaxing restrictions should have been having an impact.

Lockdown probably does help to an extent. But not the extent that the experts and this forum tends to believe in my opinion.

The US must have had a very cold summer

zerosugarbuzz

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

+1. The reproduction number of the virus in this country today is between 2.4 and 3.0.

We had this firmly under control at the end of November.

It is just not credible no matter what your ideology or opinion to defend the relaxation of restrictions prior to Christmas given the situation we are now in.

And the idea no one predicted this is a complete falsehood.

The denial, where ever it's coming from, makes no sense because the restrictions will be there as long as it takes.

That won't change. Also it means it's a futile exercise anyway to try and convince people that the sky is in fact green.

Go figure.

Much as I am often happy to blame politicians (usually with good cause) I really don't think opening up for Christmas was the cause of the current lift in case numbers. One way or another people would have partied at Christmas. Most of the problems were not created in socially distant restaurants, in a two hour period, for a maximum of 6. It was most likely the house parties after, which lets face it, simply cant be stopped.

Kermit.de.frog

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

+1. The reproduction number of the virus in this country today is between 2.4 and 3.0.

We had this firmly under control at the end of November.

It is just not credible no matter what your ideology or opinion to defend the relaxation of restrictions prior to Christmas given the situation we are now in.

And the idea no one predicted this is a complete falsehood.

The denial, where ever it's coming from, makes no sense because the restrictions will be there as long as it takes.

That won't change. Also it means it's a futile exercise anyway to try and convince people that the sky is in fact green.

Go figure.

The restrictions may not be there as long as it takes. They will only be there as long as we can afford them and they have public support.

hmmm

Silentcorner wrote: »

Nothing to do with our pathetic ICU capacity then?

If the numbers in ICU are doubling every week, doubling our capacity would only buy us an extra week.

ICU beds are expensive and require lots of new staff. I thought this was the thread for people who think we are spending too much?

How many ICU beds should Ireland have for a once in a 100 year pandemic?

hmmm

JRant wrote: »

Sorry but you don't get to rewrite history that easily but give yourself a big part on the back for guessing right.

It wasn't a "guess", it was obvious what was going to happen to anyone who is realistic about this situation.

Here's another "guess". If we reopen indoor hospitality again during a pandemic caused by a respiratory super-spreading virus which transmits through the air, we are going to have an increase in cases.

hmmm

Deleted User wrote: »

The models have been useless. A few Christmas dinners didn’t cause this. Only a fool would think that.

GP referrals for Covid testing - https://tomorrowscare.ie/covid/2021-01-07_COVID_GP_Survey_Results.pdf

See that massive spike between the week before Christmas and the one after it. What do you think caused that - Santa Claus?

hmmm

hmmm wrote: »

GP referrals for Covid testing - https://tomorrowscare.ie/covid/2021-01-07_COVID_GP_Survey_Results.pdf

See that massive spike between the week before Christmas and the one after it. What do you think caused that - Santa Claus?

The virus

FintanMcluskey

hmmm wrote: »

If you're in an enclosed space with poor ventilation, it doesn't matter if you're 2 metres away from someone with Covid.


Do you know what's worse? Dying alone from Covid.

Those people who are insisting on carrying on as normal need to grow up. Because many insisted on having a "normal" Christmas our case rates are now out of control, and there is a good chance that we will be denying ICU care to people who would otherwise survive over the next few weeks.

So there is no super spreader venues with the exception of the home.

We need to take advantage of that knowledge and act accordingly.

What exactly about Christmas was remotely normal? I’d love an answer to that

The approach we are using is in no way considering the sunk costs of lockdown either economically or socially.

I really think it’s time to get independent experts form the EU in to see exactly what’s going on Ireland.

Ireland, (the EUs youngest nation, which is relevant) has had the longest most suppressive blanket restrictions since last March yet here we are with schools closed likely until September again and many business gone for 3-4 months.

I don’t believe any other country persisted with nationwide restrictions

almostover

zerosugarbuzz wrote: »

Much as I am often happy to blame politicians (usually with good cause) I really don't think opening up for Christmas was the cause of the current lift in case numbers. One way or another people would have partied at Christmas. Most of the problems were not created in socially distant restaurants, in a two hour period, for a maximum of 6. It was most likely the house parties after, which lets face it, simply cant be stopped.

A friend of mine contracted COVID (thankfully not too sick) from her sister at xmas. Her sister contracted it at a dinner in a restaurant where one of a party of 6 had come home for xmas from the UK. All 6 in that party contracted COVID. Two things caused this recent outbreak. International travel without testing or quarantine and people meeting in groups indoors.

JRant

hmmm wrote: »

It wasn't a "guess", it was obvious what was going to happen to anyone who is realistic about this situation.

Here's another "guess". If we reopen indoor hospitality again during a pandemic caused by a respiratory super-spreading virus which transmits through the air, we are going to have an increase in cases.

You still don't get to rewrite history though. Look at those quotes from the NPHET and Prof Nolan. Now tell me where it says we would get to nearly 8000 cases a day with the numbers getting completely out of control.

FintanMcluskey

almostover wrote: »

Two things caused this recent outbreak. International travel without testing or quarantine and people meeting in groups indoors.

Exactly.

However not just indoors but in the home.

Restaurants that had heavily invested in adequate mitigation measure’s was where Christmas dinner should have been eaten!

FintanMcluskey

JRant wrote: »

You still don't get to rewrite history though. Look at those quotes from the NPHET and Prof Nolan. Now tell me where it says we would get to nearly 8000 cases a day with the numbers getting completely out of control.

It is important to remember the absolute enigma and snake oil that NPHET continue to announce each day.

Many of those cases announced today relate back to December 23rd.

hmmm

JRant wrote: »

You still don't get to rewrite history though. Look at those quotes from the NPHET and Prof Nolan. Now tell me where it says we would get to nearly 8000 cases a day with the numbers getting completely out of control.

I described it as trying to control a tiger in your house. I think that's a pretty good description.

If you're looking for someone to say something like "re-opening pubs will lead to 5000 extra cases on January 4th", then you're being unrealistic about what is possible.

NPHET I believe said reopen hospitality or allow Christmas mixing, the government disagreed (and was cheered on), and now we're screwed.

Silentcorner

hmmm wrote: »

If the numbers in ICU are doubling every week, doubling our capacity would only buy us an extra week.

ICU beds are expensive and require lots of new staff. I thought this was the thread for people who think we are spending too much?

How many ICU beds should Ireland have for a once in a 100 year pandemic?

Well we have a well staffed HSE that we pour billions of taxpayers money into every year.

The kitted out a Sports Arena in my city last May at a cost of millions and took it apart 4 months later.

I am aware that ICU is expensive and require specially trained staff, but that shouldn't let our well paid overlords in the HSE off the hook, you could well argue that it is not the time or place to have that conversation now, but it doesn't negate their responsibilities.

We were subjected to a severe and costly lockdown last Oct/Nov that on reflection of the ICU numbers and hospitisations, didn't justify itself.

I believe in the importance of restrictions, as it is an infection you want to do your best to avoid, but these lockdowns have not proven themselves worth the cost.

When you test healthy people (which we did needlessly all through the summer months) you are wasting time and money and you are using bad data to make important decisions that affect everyone to varying degrees, you can't blame people for losing faith and trust in officials/politicians and media.