Relaxation of Restrictions, Part VII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

Responder XY

This is a great article. Sums up the "debate" that is happening. Informed opinions sorely lacking all round and those trying to engage in sensible discussions are steamrolled by idiots on both sides who make arguments with zero substance.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/glaring-covid-19-data-gaps-derail-informed-debate-1.4452484

Wesekn.

Responder XY wrote: »

This is a great article. Sums up the "debate" that is happening. Informed opinions sorely lacking all round and those trying to engage in sensible discussions are steamrolled by idiots on both sides who make arguments with zero substance.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/glaring-covid-19-data-gaps-derail-informed-debate-1.4452484

Paywall freeze

_Kaiser_

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

News item that the EU has signed up to doubling the numbers of vaccines available to member states.

When? Not till Q2/April for the first lot with the rest through Q3/Q4

Watch this used to justify extending restriction accordigly and our lot comfortably blaming the EU. Which for once I agree with them on!

Do people still think that vaccines magically appear when an order is placed and dont have to be manufactured and distributed, with pre-existing orders taking precedence?

Boggles

Pubs and restaurants are not reopening for the foreseeable.

Millions of contacts indoors and breathing the same air is bad.

At this stage of the pandemic you would want to be dangerously stupid not to accept that fact.

They need to be shuttered full stop as do other high risk areas until the required level of vaccination is reached, they just drag the rest of country down with them when they open.

After we get over this "bump" the rest of retail needs to open with clearer guidance and more strict enforceable measures and never close again.

The North need to be brought in to toe the line or a solution will have to be found, we can no longer sacrifice our own economy and well being because they are dangerous simpletons.

Mandatory quarantine for all, there is a reason remote villages in the West of Ireland who never had a case of Covid are now over run and no it wasn't just people returning from Dublin for the Christmas.

Public Health and surveillance need to beefed up, no more drafting in the army band or whatever sticky plaster shíté we indulged in.

Responder XY

Wesekn. wrote: »

Paywall freeze

Don't think I can just copy the article!

In summary the data does not exist to allow anyone to have an informed discussion on the wisdom of opening hospitality in RoI. It does in the North and indications are their impact on R rating was between 0.1 and 0.2.

If we assume impact will be similar in RoI to NI, then one would suspect that hospitality is not the major driver of the current surge, however given RoI government and public health officials have shown little interest in sharing useful information it has completely prevented people from having informed debate and created the "sides" we see on social media right now.

Penfailed

Boggles wrote: »

Pubs and restaurants are not reopening for the foreseeable.

Millions of contacts indoors and breathing the same air is bad.

At this stage of the pandemic you would want to be dangerously stupid not to accept that fact.


The North need to be brought in to toe the line or a solution will have to be found, we can no longer sacrifice our own economy and well being because they are dangerous simpletons.

Would you lump schools in with that? Millions of contacts indoors breathing the same air?

You know things in the south are currently worse than the north? Who's the dangerous simpletons?

_Kaiser_

Boggles wrote: »

Pubs and restaurants are not reopening for the foreseeable.

Millions of contacts indoors and breathing the same air is bad.

At this stage of the pandemic you would want to be dangerously stupid not to accept that fact.

They need to be shuttered full stop as do other high risk areas until the required level of vaccination is reached, they just drag the rest of country down with them when they open.

After we get over this "bump" the rest of retail needs to open with clearer guidance and more strict enforceable measures and never close again.

The North need to be brought in to toe the line or a solution will have to be found, we can no longer sacrifice our own economy and well being because they are dangerous simpletons.

Mandatory quarantine for all, there is a reason remote villages in the West of Ireland who never had a case of Covid are now over run and no it wasn't just people returning from Dublin for the Christmas.

Public Health and surveillance need to beefed up, no more drafting in the army band or whatever sticky plaster shíté we indulged in.

Yea that sounds like a fantastic country to live in. Completely OTT post.

You seem to be forgetting that the stats themselves show that this virus just is not as dangerous as was first feared. New cases != New ICU cases/deaths. Some will get sick, some will unfortunately die (just as they do every year sadly).. but the vast majority of people will be just fine thankfully.

It's those actually vulnerable people who should be taking significant steps to limit their interactions and protecting themselves. It is not realistic nor desirable to restrict an entire population for the sake of a small minority.

Penfailed

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

I clipped it because it came from the moon!

Much like saying we're living in a police state then? What about your earlier unfounded claim that schools will be closed until September?

sprucemoose

Boggles wrote: »

After we get over this "bump" the rest of retail needs to open with clearer guidance and more strict enforceable measures and never close again.

i think most places bar food/pharmacy etc should have to move to click and collect only for a while. Give further grants if needed to help facilitate this but it would be a good way of stimulating the economy while minimising risk

FintanMcluskey

Boggles wrote: »

Pubs and restaurants are not reopening for the foreseeable.

Millions of contacts indoors and breathing the same air is bad.

At this stage of the pandemic you would want to be dangerously stupid not to accept that fact.

They need to be shuttered full stop as do other high risk areas until the required level of vaccination is reached, they just drag the rest of country down with them when they open.

After we get over this "bump" the rest of retail needs to open with clearer guidance and more strict enforceable measures and never close again.

The North need to be brought in to toe the line or a solution will have to be found, we can no longer sacrifice our own economy and well being because they are dangerous simpletons.

Mandatory quarantine for all, there is a reason remote villages in the West of Ireland who never had a case of Covid are now over run and no it wasn't just people returning from Dublin for the Christmas.

Public Health and surveillance need to beefed up, no more drafting in the army band or whatever sticky plaster shíté we indulged in.

“Millions of contacts all breathing the same air”

Must be big pubs in your neck of the woods!

Nothing more certain that when a poster posts a wall of muck they will allude to others being stupid

I find the self belief fascinating

FintanMcluskey

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

“But nothing has fostered the increase of COVID-19 cases more than private family gatherings, according to de Blasio.”

One of the above links has outbreaks linked to restaurants slightly above food retail, but has no indication of mitigation measures undertaken by the establishments in that region?

You do continue to ignore that the family home is the biggest problem, socialising will continue and it should happen in a relatively controlled environment.

You have no data to link cases to Irish restaurants in any significant number because the mitigation measures and contact tracing measures were incredibly strict, and implemented at great cost

Ecvery time spread has been pushed back into family homes only it has resulted the lowering of cases over the following six weeks

FintanMcluskey

“ A related issue is that, until recently, Nphet officials bizarrely considered that the tracing of the source of infections, even when virus numbers were low and this was easily possible, was just an “academic exercise”. But it has been central to the virus response in other jurisdictions, such as Japan.”

So this was the sum total of NPHET’s contribution to the living with Covid plan.

Boggles

Penfailed wrote: »

Would you lump schools in with that? Millions of contacts indoors breathing the same air?

Would I class schools the same as pubs restaurants, no because they are not the same thing.

If a pub or restaurant served the same 30 people every day, then yes it would be similar.

Penfailed wrote: »

You know things in the south are currently worse than the north? Who's the dangerous simpletons?

You know there is a reason the border counties some of the most sparsely populated areas of the country have been on different levels of restrictions to the rest of the counties for a very good reason.

8 weeks ago Arlene veto'd restrictions to try and deal with their hospitals becoming overwhelmed, why? Because it would make her less protestant apparently.

Boggles

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

It's those actually vulnerable people who should be taking significant steps to limit their interactions and protecting themselves. It is not realistic nor desirable to restrict an entire population for the sake of a small minority.

Where did I suggest we restrict and entire population?

Also this shielding the vulnerable BS needs to be put to bed.

Vulnerable people and staff who cater for them are in hospitals, public health centers, ER's, etc, etc would you be willing to sign a disclaimer to state you will not be brought to a hospital under any circumstance or avail of any public health service whilst your out living your Herd Immunity dream?

JRant

Boggles wrote: »

Pubs and restaurants are not reopening for the foreseeable.

Millions of contacts indoors and breathing the same air is bad.

At this stage of the pandemic you would want to be dangerously stupid not to accept that fact.

They need to be shuttered full stop as do other high risk areas until the required level of vaccination is reached, they just drag the rest of country down with them when they open.

After we get over this "bump" the rest of retail needs to open with clearer guidance and more strict enforceable measures and never close again.

The North need to be brought in to toe the line or a solution will have to be found, we can no longer sacrifice our own economy and well being because they are dangerous simpletons.

Mandatory quarantine for all, there is a reason remote villages in the West of Ireland who never had a case of Covid are now over run and no it wasn't just people returning from Dublin for the Christmas.

Public Health and surveillance need to beefed up, no more drafting in the army band or whatever sticky plaster shíté we indulged in.

I think we'll be lucky to see schools open again before the summer break. If the government are hanging their hat on the vaccination program then they may even struggle with a September opening date such is the pace of vaccinations here.

There's a good chance the NI "problem" will be resolved before we ever open up looking at their projections for having the majority of people up there vaccinated long before we do. However, you only have to look at the border counties to see it's been a huge problem to date. A problem that has been completely ignored by the government. We should have testing and quarantine in place for anyone (including the north) coming into the country. We've all made huge sacrifices since last March and to allow 10's of thousands cross the border daily without any checks has been a massive failure.

I have a huge fear that the majority of 2021 is going to be under lockdown or very severe restrictions. Nothing I've heard from the government has indicated anything else.

Boggles

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

“Millions of contacts all breathing the same air”

Must be big pubs in your neck of the woods!

:rolleyes:

Jesus Fintan, seriously?

You are better than that lad.

FintanMcluskey

JRant wrote: »

I have a huge fear that the majority of 2021 is going to be under lockdown or very severe restrictions. Nothing I've heard from the government has indicated anything else.

I agree completely.

Cases numbers will decay naturally in a short time frame but the restrictions will continue.

NPHET have no interest in determining where cases are transmitted and will continue to mandate level 5 to be clapped on by idiots justifying the fact they surely know better.

We must apply March 2020 science when predicting NPHET’s approach

_Kaiser_

Boggles wrote: »

Where did I suggest we restrict and entire population?

Also this shielding the vulnerable BS needs to be put to bed.

Vulnerable people and staff who cater for them are in hospitals, public health centers, ER's, etc, etc would you be willing to sign a disclaimer to state you will not be brought to a hospital under any circumstance or avail of any public health service whilst your out living your Herd Immunity dream?

As this stage - and aware that you're not really serious so answering in much the same way, if it meant no restrictions, no masks and getting back to normal... sure!

As I've said before.. I live alone, WFH, go nowhere anyway most of the week and am in my mid-40s so low risk to/from anyone statistically. I'm in decent health generally and rarely get more than a cold once/twice a year. I also don't worry as much as some here about something that I likely wouldn't notice I even had. Everything in life every day involves some risk - if you worried about all of them, you really WOULD never leave the house!

I don't need a vaccine either for those same reasons but I'll take it as long as the quid pro quo is my life can get back to normal.

JRant

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

Yea that sounds like a fantastic country to live in. Completely OTT post.

You seem to be forgetting that the stats themselves show that this virus just is not as dangerous as was first feared. New cases != New ICU cases/deaths. Some will get sick, some will unfortunately die (just as they do every year sadly).. but the vast majority of people will be just fine thankfully.

It's those actually vulnerable people who should be taking significant steps to limit their interactions and protecting themselves. It is not realistic nor desirable to restrict an entire population for the sake of a small minority.

I was looking at the HSPC reports last night and the 14 day report states the CFR is 0.2, hospitalisation rate is 2%, and ICU rate is 0.12%. It's also next to impossible to find out what the actual daily rate is because the backlog is being lumped onto the daily figures, which completely distorts the picture.

So, with that said, and I agree the numbers don't look anywhere near as bad as RTE would have us believe, I firmly believe we are looking at the guts of a 4 month lockdown. The government completely panicked over Christmas, to such an extent that I can't see them doing anything other than NPHETs full suite of recommendations and to hell with everything else.

I fundamentally disagree with their approach but looking at their reaction and the media's then the only sensible thing to do is assume a very long lockdown. There will be no "living" with COVID. That's with O'Leaey in the grave. The government only have 1 options available that they are even willing to contemplate, full lockdown until everyone is vaccinated. They are not listening to the WHO or ECDC anymore and have set us on a path that will be extremely painful and cost us for many years to come.

January 15th is going to be a shameful day for this country. Thousands of people in the country will be getting their tax bill on the pittance the government gave them to survive after forcing them out of work for long periods.

The same muppets who recently gave themselves a pay rise and claim travel expenses for zoom meetings.

We’re all in the same storm. But some of us are on yachts while others are like Kate Winslet at the end of titanic, floating on a plank of wood.

JRant

Boggles wrote: »

Where did I suggest we restrict and entire population?

Also this shielding the vulnerable BS needs to be put to bed.

Vulnerable people and staff who cater for them are in hospitals, public health centers, ER's, etc, etc would you be willing to sign a disclaimer to state you will not be brought to a hospital under any circumstance or avail of any public health service whilst your out living your Herd Immunity dream?

Do you think vaccinating those vulnerable and HCW's will be enough to open things up again?

JRant

JRant wrote: »

I was looking at the HSPC reports last night and the 14 day report states the CFR is 0.2, hospitalisation rate is 2%, and ICU rate is 0.12%. It's also next to impossible to find out what the actual daily rate is because the backlog is being lumped onto the daily figures, which completely distorts the picture.

So, with that said, and I agree the numbers don't look anywhere near as bad as RTE would have us believe, I firmly believe we are looking at the guts of a 4 month lockdown. The government completely panicked over Christmas, to such an extent that I can't see them doing anything other than NPHETs full suite of recommendations and to hell with everything else.

I fundamentally disagree with their approach but looking at their reaction and the media's then the only sensible thing to do is assume a very long lockdown. There will be no "living" with COVID. That's with O'Leaey in the grave. The government only have 1 options available that they are even willing to contemplate, full lockdown until everyone is vaccinated. They are not listening to the WHO or ECDC anymore and have set us on a path that will be extremely painful and cost us for many years to come.

Remember last April when the government talked about getting the timing of lockdown right because they knew the public could only take so much... lol! They must be surprised themselves at how compliant people are.

But I don’t see people tolerating 4 or 5 months of lockdown unless we are making great progress vaccine wise.

Everybody goes into their cave in January regardless of the year. But I think people will be going back to normal in February regardless of restrictions.

Boggles

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

As I've said before.. I live alone, WFH, go nowhere anyway most of the week and am in my mid-40s so low risk to/from anyone statistically.

Good for you, the majority of the population wouldn't be in such a position, but you never answered my question.

You need to introduce nuance and above all else scale into your opinion, the problem is everyone thinks them as individuals are low risk.

But the question remains, in order to truly protect the vulnerable like you have suggested the people who see themselves as not being vulnerable will need to make a big sacrifice.

Are you willing to make that sacrifice?

Boggles

JRant wrote: »

Do you think vaccinating those vulnerable and HCW's will be enough to open things up again?

Again it's about scale and it depends on how far you want to open up.

They is more than enough populous out there that are "not vulnerable" to overwhelm the hospitals if we let it rip.

I think the most dangerous thing we can do is say well the vaccines are here now we don't need to implement the measures that will actually help that we have learned over the past 10 months.

That will just march us straight into high level of restrictions 4.

Penfailed

Boggles wrote: »

Would I class schools the same as pubs restaurants, no because they are not the same thing.

If a pub or restaurant served the same 30 people every day, then yes it would be similar.



You know there is a reason the border counties some of the most sparsely populated areas of the country have been on different levels of restrictions to the rest of the counties for a very good reason.

8 weeks ago Arlene veto'd restrictions to try and deal with their hospitals becoming overwhelmed, why? Because it would make her less protestant apparently.

Different year groups of pupils mixing on buses and different ages from the same family going into different class groups? Why the massive increase in cases since schools opened in September?

You're projecting if you think Arlene did that to appear 'less protestant'. It was done to appeal to business for future votes. I do agree that she and her party were wrong to do so. To call everyone north of the border dangerous simpletons is wrong when the south is currently in a worse position. The 'border counties' haven't been at a different levels from the rest of the country. ONE border county (Donegal) was at a different level for a few weeks. Is it Donegal people who are dangerous simpletons?

_Kaiser_

Boggles wrote: »

Good for you, the majority of the population wouldn't be in such a position, but you never answered my question.

You need to introduce nuance and above all else scale into your opinion, the problem is everyone thinks them as individuals are low risk.

But the question remains, in order to truly protect the vulnerable like you have suggested the people who see themselves as not being vulnerable will need to make a big sacrifice.

Are you willing to make that sacrifice?

We've already made the sacrifice over the last year. We're continuing to make it now.

But at some point, the problems caused by the restrictions and lockdowns will become greater than the benefits of the approach. It's already starting - people under increased financial pressure, PUP tax due, property tax due, increased winter utility bills, businesses closed again (a lot of whom may not reopen), jobs gone/suspended again etc.

The Government seems to think that they can wait it out, hoping that the vaccine, increased herd immunity (after all most of these increased cases will be fine), and faster progress elsewhere in dealing with the situation will solve the problem for them given the slow rollout here - in order words, as usual, they're trying to ignore the bigger picture and kick the can down the road.

But with the current pace and plan, vaccinating everyone could take 2 years. Are we going to yo-yo in and out of restrictions until then? I suppose it's possible at this stage - after which we'll see mass retirements among the current crop of TDs and a general election to let 'someone else' (likely SF :eek:) deal with the fallout... jut as happened in 2011!

I dare say we'll ALL regret the current approaches long before that though.

Boggles

Penfailed wrote: »

Different year groups of pupils mixing on buses and different ages from the same family going into different class groups? Why the massive increase in cases since schools opened in September?

They have to wear masks on buses.

No where did I suggest transmission has not been happening schools, it has.

But the reality is simple, you can have pubs and restaurants open or schools and non covid health care open you can't have both.

Boggles

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

We've already made the sacrifice over the last year. We're continuing to make it now.

But at some point, the problems caused by the restrictions and lockdowns will become greater than the benefits of the approach. It's already starting - people under increased financial pressure, PUP tax due, property tax due, increased winter utility bills, businesses closed again (a lot of whom may not reopen), jobs gone/suspended again etc.

The Government seems to think that they can wait it out, hoping that the vaccine, increased herd immunity (after all most of these increased cases will be fine), and faster progress elsewhere in dealing with the situation will solve the problem for them given the slow rollout here - in order words, as usual, they're trying to ignore the bigger picture and kick the can down the road.

But with the current pace and plan, vaccinating everyone could take 2 years. Are we going to yo-yo in and out of restrictions until then? I suppose it's possible at this stage - after which we'll see mass retirements among the current crop of TDs and a general election to let (likely SF :eek:) deal with the fallout... jut as happened in 2011!

I dare say we'll ALL regret the current approaches long before that though.

Are you pretending not to see the question I have asked twice now?

Also has a man in his 40s living alone, working from home, I have no doubt you have made sacrifices, it's a once in generation pandemic.

But again "sacrifices" are relative.

Boggles

Boggles wrote: »

Again it's about scale and it depends on how far you want to open up.

They is more than enough populous out there that are "not vulnerable" to overwhelm the hospitals if we let it rip.

I think the most dangerous thing we can do is say well the vaccines are here now we don't need to implement the measures that will actually help that we have learned over the past 10 months.

That will just march us straight into high level of restrictions 4.

Even with a vaccine, flu overwhelms hospitals every year.

At some point you have to accept a certain level of risk/death.

JRant

Boggles wrote: »

Again it's about scale and it depends on how far you want to open up.

They is more than enough populous out there that are "not vulnerable" to overwhelm the hospitals if we let it rip.

I think the most dangerous thing we can do is say well the vaccines are here now we don't need to implement the measures that will actually help that we have learned over the past 10 months.

That will just march us straight into high level of restrictions 4.

End goal is to do away with every single restriction and go back to normality. I'd say that's probably 2022 at the rate we are vaccinating.

Short to medium term, I would like to see Level 2 once those groups are vaccinated. Far from ideal but I would think it's about the best we could hope for in this country. I would love to see all restrictions dropped for the entire summer and then maybe increase if required later in the year. It's a dangerous game to play though and I think the government now feel they have this lockdown "tool" in their armory for any of the future winter trolley crisis we will inevitably find ourselves in.