Relaxation of Restrictions, Part VII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

AndrewJRenko

PTH2009 wrote: »

It's not like he doesn't have a small agenda against Alcohol.

https://alcoholireland.ie/have-we-bottled-it-alcohol-marketing-and-young-people/

You're aware of the relationship between alcohol and public health, right?

Anyway, back on topic

https://twitter.com/Antcon7062/status/1348018386769498122?s=19

walus

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

If you have a team of 40 enjoying stardom, who’s advice on July 14th 2020 when ROI had 14 cases is to be careful the R number is rising, low case numbers won’t have any effect on mandated advice.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/news/health/coronavirus-two-more-deaths-confirmed-as-r-rate-rises-above-1-1.4305293%3fmode=amp

That may be behind a paywall so I’ll quote Dr Glynn

“ Dr Glynn said the R-number, which is the reproductive rate of the virus, had increased above 1 and was “somewhere in the range of 1.2 and 1.8.”

14 cases July 14th and they actually discussed the R number

The problem with the R number frequently used as an indicator is that it is highly inaccurate when the number of cases is low. The right question to nphet is: “ What us the error rate of the R number?”. Since no one has asked that they use it whichever way it suits. Take the value at the far end of a large error rate and lockdown or introduce restrictions.

pjohnson

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

You're aware of the relationship between alcohol and public health, right?

Anyway, back on topic

https://twitter.com/Antcon7062/status/1348018386769498122?s=19

And still some here will claim hospitals are empty now so open the pubs now

walus

Looking at the excess mortality across a selected EU countries (source: euromomo.eu). See attached.

The differences in mortality levels, especially at the beginning in March and April, cannot be linked to a virus behaving differently when crossing the borders. The Germans say they were very conservative in administering the antiviral drugs to the COVID patients. Same goes for Denmark, Finland etc. In some other countries the daily dosage of say Hydroxychloroquine (considered an experimental drug) was 2400 mg on day 1, where the max advised is around 2000 mg.

Make what you want from this, but next time you see a 17 year old on a telly telling his long COVID story ask yourself a question: “What treatment did this poor fella received?

You may also want to reconsider conclusions from looking at those horrific images from northern Italy.

I’ve been saying this for months but overreaction is dangerous, it also takes lives away.

hamburgham

pjohnson wrote: »

And still some here will claim hospitals are empty now so open the pubs now

There are THE EXACT SAME horror stories about the hospitals every single January. It’s the middle of Winter and the hospitals effectively close down for two weeks over Christmas so there’s a huge pile up come January. Are there still no discharges over the weekend?

deathbomber

suicide_circus wrote: »

I've a colleague who came back from 7 days in Lanzarote last week- went with a test, came back had a test and returned to work....there are people living.

This isn't living, this is a selfish asshole who has no respect for the vulnerable or other people in general

walus

walus wrote: »

The problem with the R number frequently used as an indicator is that it is highly inaccurate when the number of cases is low. The right question to nphet is: “ What us the error rate of the R number?”. Since no one has asked that they use it whichever way it suits. Take the value at the far end of a large error rate and lockdown or introduce restrictions.

They always report the range of estimates for the r0 and the projections associated with upper, lower and most likely case. So yet another made up scenario

SnuggyBear

deathbomber wrote: »

This isn't living, this is a selfish asshole who has no respect for the vulnerable or other people in general

He got tested, what's the problem?

Birdie Num Num

walus wrote: »

Looking at the excess mortality across a selected EU countries (source: euromomo.eu). See attached.

The differences in mortality levels, especially at the beginning in March and April, cannot be linked to a virus behaving differently when crossing the borders. The Germans say they were very conservative in administering the antiviral drugs to the COVID patients. Same goes for Denmark, Finland etc. In some other countries the daily dosage of say Hydroxychloroquine (considered an experimental drug) was 2400 mg on day 1, where the max advised is around 2000 mg.

Make what you want from this, but next time you see a 17 year old on a telly telling his long COVID story ask yourself a question: “What treatment did this poor fella received?

You may also want to reconsider conclusions from looking at those horrific images from northern Italy.

I’ve been saying this for months but overreaction is dangerous, it also takes lives away.

I think you've missed the nail on the head right there and hit your thumb instead! A virus doesn't behave. People behave differently and conditions and environments differ. A virus just needs the right behaviour and conditions.

walus

Birdie Num Num wrote: »

I think you've missed the nail on the head right there and hit your thumb instead! A virus doesn't behave. People behave differently and conditions and environments differ. A virus just needs the right behaviour and conditions.

Isn’t that exactly what I’m saying? Not sure how you read my posts, but you are missing the message yet again.

Edit: I’ll put it simply. There is a strong indication at this point that the reason for spikes in excess mortality observed back in feb-apr period is the type of treatment (drugs and dosages) administered to COVID patients.

Lundstram

It's funny seeing people on here and Twitter comparing us to the UK now. "Oh, look at their ICU numbers, their hospital admissions, their positivity rates. Our neighbours so we must be on their trajectory".

However it was a very different story during the summer when much of the UK was open while we were locked down tight with case numbers of 3 to 25 for a lot of days. We went 16 whole days without a death but still heavy handed restrictions were in place. Quick to lock us down, but very very slow to ease the restrictions.

Nobody was comparing us to the UK back then.

Funny that.

AndrewJRenko

hamburgham wrote: »

There are THE EXACT SAME horror stories about the hospitals every single January. It’s the middle of Winter and the hospitals effectively close down for two weeks over Christmas so there’s a huge pile up come January. Are there still no discharges over the weekend?

Some of those on the front line seem to think different;

https://twitter.com/Antcon7062/status/1348213253139267584

https://twitter.com/Antcon7062/status/1348213836776681472

There are positives we can take from this latest outbreak. If we can have thousands of cases a day and 1400+ in hospital, perhaps we don’t need to get so hysterical next time we have 300 cases and 50 in hospital...

walus

Deleted User wrote: »

There are positives we can take from this latest outbreak. If we can have thousands of cases a day and 1400+ in hospital, perhaps we don’t need to get so hysterical next time we have 300 cases and 50 in hospital...

Exactly, maybe now nphet will be able to calibrate their models better.

Edit: It also shows how overreactive this strategy of dealing with this pandemic has been since May.

normanoffside

deathbomber wrote: »

This isn't living, this is a selfish asshole who has no respect for the vulnerable or other people in general

Canary Islands is an orange region so as long as you come back with a test before departure or take one after landing then you don’t have to restrict movements.

What’s your problem with somebody following the rules?

average_runner

walus wrote: »

Exactly, maybe now nphet will be able to calibrate their models better.

Well.Wexford and Waterford hospitals have no more capacity.

Is this where we want to be.?

zerosugarbuzz

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

Some of those on the front line seem to think different;

https://twitter.com/Antcon7062/status/1348213253139267584

https://twitter.com/Antcon7062/status/1348213836776681472

Anthony seems to be looking to get on the celebrity gravy train Along with Tony H, luke O’Neill and the lads. Who could blame him, coming to a radio station near you soon.

Lundstram

zerosugarbuzz wrote: »

Anthony seems to be looking to get on the celebrity gravy train Along with Tony H, luke O’Neill and the lads. Who could blame him, coming to a radio station near you soon.

Aspiring Labour TD.

He wasn't tweeting about the yearly hospital overcrowding for the seasonal winter flu. No attention to be had there.

Covid19 is sexier = more likes.

walus

average_runner wrote: »

Well.Wexford and Waterford hospitals have no more capacity.

Is this where we want to be.?

Well, they have been quiet/empty/sent home for the bones of spring and summer. That should have never happened. Where did they think they were going to find themselves come winter?
I’m really sorry to be saying this but Tony has cried wolf when cases were as low as 15 and has totally run out of peoples buy-in to all this lockdown-protect-the-HSE story. What is happening today has its roots in June/July and decisions that were made then.

And no, I never wanted this to happen. But I saw it coming.

Lundstram

Lundstram wrote: »

Aspiring Labour TD.

He wasn't tweeting about the yearly hospital overcrowding for the seasonal winter flu. No attention to be had there.

Covid19 is sexier = more likes.

What complete drivel

ElektroToad

average_runner wrote: »

Well.Wexford and Waterford hospitals have no more capacity.

Is this where we want to be.?

TBH overrun hospitals was often the the case every single winter flu season the past decade or so. I recall reading about a number of international reports suggesting our healthcare system is consistently ranked among the worst in Europe in terms of money invested (along with UK, incidently).

National papers would be plastered with headlines of 700 or 800 of patients on trolleys waiting for beds at any one time, calls for the Minister for Health to resign in disgrace etc etc

The healthcare system is broken at a fundamental level and everyone knows this. The Irish people have any done more than their fair share in putting their lives on hold for past 11 months. Since then many lives and livelihoods have been destroyed not by COVID, but the excessive and overreactive restrictions that have devastated entire sections of our economy. And for what?

hamburgham

ElektroToad wrote: »

TBH overrun hospitals was often the the case every single winter flu season the past decade or so. I recall reading about a number of international reports suggesting our healthcare system is consistently ranked among the worst in Europe in terms of money invested (along with UK, incidently).

National papers would be plastered with headlines of 700 or 800 of patients on trolleys waiting for beds at any one time, calls for the Minister for Health to resign in disgrace etc etc

The healthcare system is broken at a fundamental level and everyone knows this. The Irish people have any done more than their fair share in putting their lives on hold for past 11 months. Since then many lives and livelihoods have been destroyed not by COVID, but the excessive and overreactive restrictions that have devastated entire sections of our economy. And for what?

Spot on.
Look back and you will see the same headlines every single January and nothing ever changes. Last year Leo was eaten alive for suggesting medical staff work over Christmas.

walus

ElektroToad wrote: »

TBH overrun hospitals was often the the case every single winter flu season the past decade or so. I recall reading about a number of international reports suggesting our healthcare system is consistently ranked among the worst in Europe in terms of money invested (along with UK, incidently).

National papers would be plastered with headlines of 700 or 800 of patients on trolleys waiting for beds at any one time, calls for the Minister for Health to resign in disgrace etc etc

The healthcare system is broken at a fundamental level and everyone knows this. The Irish people have any done more than their fair share in putting their lives on hold for past 11 months. Since then many lives and livelihoods have been destroyed not by COVID, but the excessive and overreactive restrictions that have devastated entire sections of our economy. And for what?

Just wait for “COVID is not flu” brigade now .

Boggles

ElektroToad wrote: »

The healthcare system is broken at a fundamental level and everyone knows this. The Irish people have any done more than their fair share in putting their lives on hold for past 11 months. Since then many lives and livelihoods have been destroyed not by COVID, but the excessive and overreactive restrictions that have devastated entire sections of our economy. And for what?

The craic obviously.

Western Capitalism crashed itself for the jolly, they all got together with Tony Holohan and invented the scandemic in an attempt to ban all alcohol.

Or maybe they realize the damage done to the economy and society may be far greater if they used the untested method of "fúck it let's just ignore it shure be grand"

Can a society and economy function properly without a health service or education or a raft of semi functioning emergency and public services?

It's a bold strategy Cotton.

UDAWINNER

suicide_circus wrote: »

I've a colleague who came back from 7 days in Lanzarote last week- went with a test, came back had a test and returned to work....there are people living.

Wonder if he passed the covid to one of his colleagues, would they be so understanding or call him a selfish prick, the latter I think.

ElektroToad

Boggles wrote: »

The craic obviously.

Western Capitalism crashed itself for the jolly, they all got together with Tony Holohan and invented the scandemic in an attempt to ban all alcohol.

Or maybe they realize the damage done to the economy and society may be far greater if they used the untested method of "fúck it let's just ignore it shure be grand"

Can a society and economy function properly without a health service or education or a raft of semi functioning emergency and public services?

It's a bold strategy Cotton.

Again the "why" is the most interesting part, and I do not know the answer.

But i basically suspect it is due to self-perpetuating cycle of hysteria, which has thus necessitated a massive "arse-covering" exercise by the political class.

Media outlets are having an absolutely field day with COVID. Politicians are under huge pressure to be seen to be doing something due to the arrival of a novel virus, and so they are undertaking extreme measures that would have been deemed totally unacceptable in any Western country only a few years ago. They cannot be seen to be "heartless granny killers" after all...

Boggles

ElektroToad wrote: »

Again the "why" is the most interesting part, and I do not know the answer.

But i basically suspect it is due to self-perpetuating cycle of hysteria, which has thus necessitated a massive "arse-covering" exercise by the political class.

Media outlets are having an absolutely field day with COVID. Politicians are under huge pressure to be seen to be doing something due to the arrival of a novel virus, and so they are undertaking extreme measures that would have been deemed totally unacceptable in any Western country only a few years ago. They cannot be seen to be "heartless granny killers" after all...

You mean when we didn't have once in generation pandemic circling the globe crashing health care?

I suppose yeah you are right.

one armed dwarf

Lundstram wrote: »

It's funny seeing people on here and Twitter comparing us to the UK now. "Oh, look at their ICU numbers, their hospital admissions, their positivity rates. Our neighbours so we must be on their trajectory".

However it was a very different story during the summer when much of the UK was open while we were locked down tight with case numbers of 3 to 25 for a lot of days. We went 16 whole days without a death but still heavy handed restrictions were in place. Quick to lock us down, but very very slow to ease the restrictions.

Nobody was comparing us to the UK back then.

Funny that.

It's also pretty funny how you manage to completely miss the point, or maybe it's deliberate.

The pictures of ICU numbers in London aren't supposed to make an argument for the UK's lockdown strategy or ours. I would even agree that we locked down far too long during the summer.

It's supposed to illustrate that none of this follows the regular pattern of flu seasons, covid ICU admissions are quite literally off the charts. We've never seen these numbers in any of our lifetimes,. the scale of the surge is unprecedented. It is objective proof of the severity of the pandemic. If the posters in this thread are so sure that covid is no more serious than flu then they should be able to explain this. Or you can continue to ignore it, put your head back in the sand and call the people who point it out hysterical drama merchants out for social media likes. Tbh, I don't care. People like you are impossible to reach at this point

zerosugarbuzz

UDAWINNER wrote: »

Wonder if he passed the covid to one of his colleagues, would they be so understanding or call him a selfish prick, the latter I think.

Can you not read? He had a test when he came back..

normanoffside

UDAWINNER wrote: »

Wonder if he passed the covid to one of his colleagues, would they be so understanding or call him a selfish prick, the latter I think.

Can you explain to me why he was being selfish when he was visiting a place with approximately 20 times less infections than Ireland (per head of population) and followed all the relevant protocols and advice (at his own personal expense) before returning to work?