Relaxation of Restrictions, Part VII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

johnboy1298

Micky 32 wrote: »

I for one will do my own thing and will be taking no notice of them.

A lot of traffic on the roads and plenty of people out and about these days. I check to know about what's happening on here but don't watch RTE or check newspapers thus avoiding the excessive scaremongering.

If you're not vulnerable or living with someone vulnerable and you follow the guidelines you've just given up so much time and you can never get that time back. I know plenty of youngish people that have had it and its just a couple of days of being flued up and that's it. The more people realise this the less fear they have, sure when the pubs shut on christmas eve no one really cared about the numbers they were just disappointed they were shutting again, anyone I knew just went to a gathering in a house for stephen's night instead. Same for new years. There are no big gatherings anymore but if anyone under 40 has become a hermit they were probably didn't mix too much regardless.

normanoffside

GazzaL wrote: »

I had a pain in my finger the other day. Could that be it? I put it down to cutting myself with a knife, but who knows.

I was feeling tired last week and put it down to possible Covid. Then I remembered I'd only slept a few hours the night before.

Mr. Karate

fin12 wrote: »

Blocked nose with no other symptoms, is that a sign of Coronavirus?

According to Saint Tony you're to assume you have it.

Dickie10

Dickie10 wrote: »

our big problem is will NYPHET let it go? and when , like i want the nightclubs,concerts,gigs in O2 , music festivals, comedy shows, theatre nights and horse racing events to come back, there the things i find life worth living for, and NYPHET i just cant see them releasing the reigns on much of that before christmas. im fearful we will still have cases among under 40s and that will be enough to keep the things i love locked up. no deaths, no hospitilisations but cases. but maybe they will stop testiing when it gets to that stage, thus no cases if no testing

That is what worries me. We will always have cases and hospitalisations, and the occasional COVID death (though hopefully limited as the vulnerable will be continually vaccinated, and the treatments for those who are not, and are unfortunate enough to be hospitalised, will be better). The vaccine will not make COVID go away (given that immunity will be limited and periodic vaccinations will be required, like the flu) and it will be endemic in our society for years to come. Sure, we have a flu jab, and yet people, sometimes many people, die of the flu every year.

At some stage NPHET have to stop reporting cases, driving their agenda of fear, and influencing government policy. But I fear that their threshold for doing that will be a long time behind where I would like it to be

MOH

Boggles wrote: »

Hitting nearly 1000 cases a day entering Christmas week was the downfall.

It's not that hard understand TBF.

The results are stark and undeniable.

At some stage certain people are just going to have to acknowledge the reality we are in and ranting and raving online and ignoring the pandemic are just not viable options.

Yes, the result are stark and undeniable. At some point certain people are just going to have to acknowledge the reality we are in: that the handling of this has been horrific and that repeatedly going into excessive lockdowns is just not a viable option.

How to have the world's worst pandemic situation in 5 easy steps.
1: Implement moderate lockdown to handle rising cases
2: Ignore the fact that this has successfully stemmed the increase, numbers have now peaked and are stable, and overrule the more moderate advisors who want to give the current state more time to work - insist on level 5 lockdown
3: Promise the public that if they follow the level 5 lockdown for 6 weeks they can have "meaningful Christmas" celebrations
4: After six weeks of winding up expectations, as lockdown is eased boast that Ireland has the best Covid situation in Europe.
5: Blame the resulting horrific situation on:
-- a) oversocialising by the same public who you needlessly made complacent with your "best in Europe" boasts, and needlessly bottled up for 6 weeks
-- b) domestic travel; which you said was OK before Christmas
-- c) international travel, which you repeatedly claim isn't a major factor and refuse to implement any kind of quarantine for
-- d) new variants of the virus, which have just magically appeared here since, again, international travel is only responsible for 0.5% of clusters
-- e) accept responsibility for horribly mismanaging the situat-- sorry, don't know how that got in there, that's clearly not on the list.


It's is utterly beyond me how anyone at this point can still fail to acknowledge the basic reality that we have absolutely no coherent covid response, we never have, and we never will with the people running this, beyond hoping we don't misplace too much of the vaccine.

Micky 32

Deleted User wrote: »

That is what worries me. We will always have cases and hospitalisations, and the occasional COVID death (though hopefully limited as the vulnerable will be continually vaccinated, and the treatments for those who are not, and are unfortunate enough to be hospitalised, will be better). The vaccine will not make COVID go away (given that immunity will be limited and periodic vaccinations will be required, like the flu) and it will be endemic in our society for years to come. Sure, we have a flu jab, and yet people, sometimes many people, die of the flu every year.

At some stage NPHET have to stop reporting cases, driving their agenda of fear, and influencing government policy. But I fear that their threshold for doing that will be a long time behind where I would like it to be

YAWN, do ye ever give over. The vaccine is highly effective and WILL bring back normality, it’s like a broken record on here ffs, give it a chance.

Micky 32

Micky 32 wrote: »

YAWN, do ye ever give over. The vaccine is highly effective and WILL bring back normality, it’s like a broken record on here ffs

effective according to whom?

All the data is still on file and has not been handed over to the EU, this is why it was passed conditionally. The vaccine does not stop you passing it on, so even if you get the jab, you can come home and give this to you pregnant wife, or 16yrs and under children, your immunosuppressed organ recipient etc etc.

These Vaccines are effective according to information that has not been released by the pharma companies yet to be fair. They could end up like the bloody Tamiflu drug which shaved a few hours of a 7 day Flu and cost the UK half a billion.

Whilst I do hope they work for anyone who gets them, they're not a Panacea at all because like this Virus, they too are new and the efficacy was won in a race to get the best one to market..haste makes waste!

Micky 32

rusty cole wrote: »

effective according to whom?

All the data is still on file and has not been handed over to the EU, this is why it was passed conditionally. The vaccine does not stop you passing it on, so even if you get the jab, you can come home and give this to you pregnant wife, or 16yrs and under children, your immunosuppressed organ recipient etc etc.

These Vaccines are effective according to information that has not been released by the pharma companies yet to be fair. They could end up like the bloody Tamiflu drug which shaved a few hours of a 7 day Flu and cost the UK half a billion.

Whilst I do hope they work for anyone who gets them, they're not a Panacea at all because like this Virus, they too are new and the efficacy was won in a race to get the best one to market..haste makes waste!

The nonsense and conspiracy theories on these forums are actualy hilarious. Maybe if you do some actual research you might post less rubbish.

fin12

Mr. Karate wrote: »

According to Saint Tony you're to assume you have it.

I used some Vick’s and it’s clearing already. I doubt it would clear so quick if it was Covid. Hopefully...

Penfailed

Mr. Karate wrote: »

According to Saint Tony you're to assume you have it.

Chris Witty said the same thing this evening.

ceadaoin.

Micky 32 wrote: »

YAWN, do ye ever give over. The vaccine is highly effective and WILL bring back normality, it’s like a broken record on here ffs, give it a chance.

The vaccines are effective at reducing symptoms in 95% of cases. They don't know if it stops transmission though so there may still be cases and some of those will get sick. Thats a fact, not a conspiracy.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/can-you-still-spread-covid-19-after-you-get-vaccinated-11610379107

Micky 32

ceadaoin. wrote: »

The vaccines are effective at reducing symptoms in 95% of cases. They don't know if it stops transmission though so there may still be cases and some of those will get sick. Thats a fact, not a conspiracy.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/can-you-still-spread-covid-19-after-you-get-vaccinated-11610379107

I wasn’t reffering to that part of his post as a conspiracy.

Yes and the 5% won’t get serious illlness. As it has been pointed out a country won’t be kept in forever lockdown over a few people that can’t take the vaccine. They will have to do their best to protect themselves. It’s mainly about hospitalization and deaths. However it still is possible the vaccines will reduce transmission.

JRant

Micky 32 wrote: »

I wasn’t reffering to that part of his post as a conspiracy.

Yes and the 5% won’t get serious illlness. As it has been pointed out a country won’t be kept in forever lockdown over a few people that can’t take the vaccine. They will have to do their best to protect themselves. It’s mainly about hospitalization and deaths. However it still is possible the vaccines will reduce transmission.

I've made peace with the restrictions and like you I hope we get back to normality later this year. That is dependent on 2 things. First, the vaccines, let's hope they do exactly what they say on the tin and more. Second, what is the exit strategy from the COVID mindset. I haven't seen anything from the government about what that will entail. Will NPHET be wound down during the summer as we get to a critical mass of people vaccinated? Will we stop testing everyone and go back to a clinical diagnosis plus test to determine if an illness is caused by COVID. We know the vaccine will reduce the effects on a majority of people but the virus will still be circulating. If we keep testing everyone then we may see high "case" numbers but these shouldn't translate to hospital or ICU admissions. Does this fact mean that NPHET will still be around in 12 months time "just in case".
There's a lot unknown at the moment so only time will tell but let's all try stay a little positive and hopefully this blame game that has taken off over the last few weeks can be forgotten.

bb1234567

Deleted User wrote: »

Based on what Leo is saying, it’s more or less lockdown until summer. Probably schools and construction will reopen. Maybe non essential retail.

I’ll be shocked if restaurants open before summer. Depressing times ahead. Wish I could see the suicide stats for last year.

Very odd thing to say. Do you feel that an increase in suicides would then completely validate your cause and put you in the right all along?

Micky 32

JRant wrote: »

I've made peace with the restrictions and like you I hope we get back to normality later this year. That is dependent on 2 things. First, the vaccines, let's hope they do exactly what they say on the tin and more. Second, what is the exit strategy from the COVID mindset. I haven't seen anything from the government about what that will entail. Will NPHET be wound down during the summer as we get to a critical mass of people vaccinated? Will we stop testing everyone and go back to a clinical diagnosis plus test to determine if an illness is caused by COVID. We know the vaccine will reduce the effects on a majority of people but the virus will still be circulating. If we keep testing everyone then we may see high "case" numbers but these shouldn't translate to hospital or ICU admissions. Does this fact mean that NPHET will still be around in 12 months time "just in case".
There's a lot unknown at the moment so only time will tell but let's all try stay a little positive and hopefully this blame game that has taken off over the last few weeks can be forgotten.

I would say because they don’t know how long the vaccine lasts i’m sure nphet will be around for a while to monitor when the cases might rise again. They will have to work out how often we need to be vaccinated. It will have to be monitored for a while.

Birdie Num Num

MOH wrote: »

Yes, the result are stark and undeniable. At some point certain people are just going to have to acknowledge the reality we are in: that the handling of this has been horrific and that repeatedly going into excessive lockdowns is just not a viable option.

How to have the world's worst pandemic situation in 5 easy steps.
1: Implement moderate lockdown to handle rising cases
2: Ignore the fact that this has successfully stemmed the increase, numbers have now peaked and are stable, and overrule the more moderate advisors who want to give the current state more time to work - insist on level 5 lockdown
3: Promise the public that if they follow the level 5 lockdown for 6 weeks they can have "meaningful Christmas" celebrations
4: After six weeks of winding up expectations, as lockdown is eased boast that Ireland has the best Covid situation in Europe.
5: Blame the resulting horrific situation on:
-- a) oversocialising by the same public who you needlessly made complacent with your "best in Europe" boasts, and needlessly bottled up for 6 weeks
-- b) domestic travel; which you said was OK before Christmas
-- c) international travel, which you repeatedly claim isn't a major factor and refuse to implement any kind of quarantine for
-- d) new variants of the virus, which have just magically appeared here since, again, international travel is only responsible for 0.5% of clusters
-- e) accept responsibility for horribly mismanaging the situat-- sorry, don't know how that got in there, that's clearly not on the list.


It's is utterly beyond me how anyone at this point can still fail to acknowledge the basic reality that we have absolutely no coherent covid response, we never have, and we never will with the people running this, beyond hoping we don't misplace too much of the vaccine.

Who is 'we'? Do you really include yourself in 'we' or is 'we' other people that you share this country with and it's their responsibility?

bb1234567

bb1234567 wrote: »

Very odd thing to say. Do you feel that an increase in suicides would then completely validate your cause and put you in the right all along?

I don’t have a cause but what I fear will happen:

Increase in suicides
Increase in cancer deaths due to cancelled screening
Increased in general deaths due to cancelled treatments and people’s irrational fear of Covid
Mental health deteriorating in general
Huge societal impacts due to the economic hardship ahead.
Our young leaving the country again for opportunities

Not a great trade off considering we have hardly any excess deaths for 2020 anyways.

bb1234567

Deleted User wrote: »

I don’t have a cause but what I fear will happen:

Increase in suicides
Increase in cancer deaths due to cancelled screening
Increased in general deaths due to cancelled treatments and people’s irrational fear of Covid
Mental health deteriorating in general
Huge societal impacts due to the economic hardship ahead.
Our young leaving the country again for opportunities

Not a great trade off considering we have hardly any excess deaths for 2020 anyways.

And most of the Western world has all that plus tens of thousands of COVID excess deaths. Got a better deal than most so far at least

Also just your wording at the end is very strange. You're saying the trade off would only be worth if we did have large numbers of excess deaths from COVID? Surely the restrictions in place would be to negate/reduce that effect, surely? And thus a minimal rate would be the better tradeoff than high excess deaths?

CruelSummer

Dr Holohan really trying to twist the knife into Government and absolve NPHET of any responsibility re the recent surge. Bringing in Dr Mike Ryan as back up. This article doesn’t clarify upon what data this information was based that Holohan relayed to Ryan. Was it DeGascun’s paltry 165 case sample out of 10s of thousands?

https://twitter.com/irishtimes/status/1348766889191866370?s=21

fin12

Gorillas have the virus now aswell.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9135893/Gorillas-test-positive-coronavirus-San-Diego-park.html

PTH2009

fin12 wrote: »

Gorillas have the virus now aswell.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9135893/Gorillas-test-positive-coronavirus-San-Diego-park.html

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UkJehlr1tEw

AndrewJRenko

It's only the old people and the sick people that need to worry.

https://twitter.com/Conjo93/status/1348673365477883905?s=19

walus

walus wrote: »

There is multiple ways to explain this, really. It came as no surprise to me.
Looking at the 6 week period prior to Christmas (level 5) the compliance with the restriction was very poor already. The fact that the number of cases went down insignificantly in respect to the measures introduced was probably down not to the fact that the virus spread was constrained in any meaningful manner, but due to the fact that contact tracing was significantly impacted by shutting down the controllable environments. While the real number of cases was growing, the actual recorded number was falling. The second ‘lockdown’ was a disaster that did not fully show in the numbers at the time.

Therefore the current surge should not be looked at as a say 10 - fold increase but one that is much more moderate, 2-4 fold, as the real/actual number of cases was much higher during and after the said 6 weeks period. Forget the Christmas period. What we see today was brewing for much longer than people think. The numbers today are nothing extraordinary, it just a compounded effect of couple of factors that took place over an extended period of time.

What evidence other than the unwillingness to accept reality have you that cases were much higher in November than the numbers suggest?

Allowing for the fact that we probably never detect all cases - in November we were testing asymptomatic contacts, now we are not, and by the End of November we were averaging around 10 hospitalisations per day. Now we are averaging over 100

walus

Deleted User wrote: »

What evidence other than the unwillingness to accept reality have you that cases were much higher in November than the numbers suggest?

Allowing for the fact that we probably never detect all cases - in November we were testing asymptomatic contacts, now we are not, and by the End of November we were averaging around tend hospitalisations per day. Now we are averaging over 100

Unwillingness to accept the reality? Such as?
The 6 weeks of level 5 reduced the reported cases by 2-3 fold only. That alone was a surprise to many. Do I really need to explain to you that real number of cases is always greater than the number of cases that comes from testing? And that this relationship is not linear, i.e. the rate of increase in the reported cases is lower than the rate of increase in the actual number of COVID positive? On top of that there is a positivity rate factor that is dependent on level of restrictions and contact tracing efficiency.

walus

bb1234567 wrote: »

And most of the Western world has all that plus tens of thousands of COVID excess deaths. Got a better deal than most so far at least

Also just your wording at the end is very strange. You're saying the trade off would only be worth if we did have large numbers of excess deaths from COVID? Surely the restrictions in place would be to negate/reduce that effect, surely? And thus a minimal rate would be the better tradeoff than high excess deaths?

And what is the average ‘life years lost’ number for all those thousands of COVID excess deaths?

walus

walus wrote: »

Unwillingness to accept the reality? Such as?
The 6 weeks of level 5 reduced the reported cases by 2-3 fold only. That alone was a surprise to many. Do I really need to explain to you that real number of cases is always greater than the number of cases that comes from testing? And that this relationship is not linear, i.e. the rate of increase in the reported cases is lower than the rate of increase in the actual number of COVID positive? On top of that there is a positivity rate factor that is dependent on level of restrictions and contact tracing efficiency.

10x hospitalisation rate

Boggles

SusieBlue wrote: »

The mistake was 9 weeks of strict restrictions in the run up to Christmas where people couldn’t see their loved ones for months, after a particularly crap year where people spent most of it separated from their families.

If the government had even allowed outdoor meet ups in the fresh air between groups of 3 or whatever, it would have been quite safe and people wouldn’t have been so lonely and isolated and desperate for human contact come December 1st.

Let's color in that perception with a bit of reality.

schools, early learning and childcare services will continue to remain open and are deemed essential

non-contact training can continue for school aged children

it is possible to meet with one other household in an outdoor setting which is not a home or garden, such as a park, including for exercise

there will be the concept of an extended household (or support bubble) for defined categories of individuals to support those at risk of social isolation and/or mental ill-health

walus

Deleted User wrote: »

10x hospitalisation rate

Care to elaborate?

pjohnson

bb1234567 wrote: »

Very odd thing to say. Do you feel that an increase in suicides would then completely validate your cause and put you in the right all along?

The anti-restrictors have been banking on this happening since February 2020.

walus

walus wrote: »

Care to elaborate?

Cases are far more likely to be missed than hospitalisations. We are now getting 10 times the the rate of hospitalisations, and growing, that we were getting at the end of november. That is a strong indication that real cases numbers are at least 10x also.

In addition we are far more likely to be missing cases now than in November given we are no longer testing asymptomatic contacts. Thats potentially up to 40% of cases