Relaxation of Restrictions, Part VII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

Captain_Crash

Penfailed wrote: »

You're conflating two different discussions. I haven't said anywhere that Sweden is going into lockdown.

Its kind of funny that you think that post was directed at you. Although if I remember right you're of the opinion that anything less than Level 5 is not a lockdown (which is a fair opinion, I think that myself)

emeldc wrote: »

They can impose restrictions like masks, social distancing and stuff like that but apparently can't close shopping centres and the likes. That is until last weelend when they brought in new laws to allow lockdowns as the restrictions were not working.
I didn't read all of the article:
https://www.thelocal.se/20201119/does-swedens-constitution-really-prevent-tough-covid-measures

That's not a lockdown, that's new laws that make available the option of a lockdown? In fact, from reading that, between today and this day last week nothing has changed in Sweden other than the introduction of greater enforcement measures should they be needed?

CalamariFritti

manniot2 wrote: »

I think the point that is consistently missed about Sweden is that nobody is saying their approach was a huge success, however,it does not stand out as a disaster also. In terms of a wider view of Europe, they are rooted in the middle in terms of deaths despite being far more relaxed about mandatory rules. Again, not good, but better than many that locked down.

Exactly that.

The point is that Sweden did not have lockdown and very few restrictions. Still have actually. They passed laws that allow them to do certain things but they haven't actually done them yet.

And yet Sweden are slap bang in the middle of the covid league table.

Have their immediate neighbours fewer deaths? Yes they have, no one is debating that. But they're not doing worse than ourselves and loads of other countries. Doing in fact much better than many high restriction/high lockdown countries.

But Sweden is a thorn in everyone else's side because it effectively debunks everyone else's strategy being 'without alternative'. It exposes all those models as utter rubbish and lockdown as an unnecessary failure.

We were supposed to have anything between 100,000 and 200,000 deaths without March lockdown. So Sweden should have had twice that possibly more. But they have under 10k. Today.

Its that cancel mentality in real life. I dont like some facts so I just throw enough mud in their direction. Even my mum thinks now that Sweden are granny killers and she knows nothing about any of this.

niallo27

Deleted User wrote: »

i think the ppint that is consistently missed about sweden is that they had almost 4x the number of deaths of their closest country demographically - Denmark, and more again than the next closest - Norway and Finland

What about Denmark.

paw patrol

Donald Trump wrote: »

It was clear at the time. No?



Masks were not a practical alternative solution to restrictions for March 2020

The same as vaccinations are not a practical alternative solution to restrictions for Jan 2021
Not enough to go around yet! Most people also didn't know how to wear/handle them properly





BTW, Czech Republic were praised for implementing masks quickly. Great numbers at the start but really deteriorated later on - even with masks. All else equal then properly used masks definitely improve things. But if masks change behaviour then that change can leave you worse off overall

I was answering a different point. That poster said the no masks mandate was to protect frontline staff that's what i was answering

Kermit.de.frog

Some of these new variants of this disease emerging are raising serious concerns. Boris Johnson just now has singled out the Brazilian variant for special attention (already identified in Japan) and that every step will be taken to keep that version out of the UK.

It's yet another demonstration of the nature and long term challenge this pandemic poses.

Restrictions will keep matching the current and emerging threats ultimately.

CalamariFritti

CalamariFritti wrote: »

Exactly that.

The point is that Sweden did not have lockdown and very few restrictions. Still have actually. They passed laws that allow them to do certain things but they haven't actually done them yet.

And yet Sweden are slap bang in the middle of the covid league table.

Have their immediate neighbours fewer deaths? Yes they have, no one is debating that. But they're not doing worse than ourselves and loads of other countries. Doing in fact much better than many high restriction/high lockdown countries.

But Sweden is a thorn in everyone else's side because it effectively debunks everyone else's strategy being 'without alternative'. It exposes all those models as utter rubbish and lockdown as an unnecessary failure.

We were supposed to have anything between 100,000 and 200,000 deaths without March lockdown. So Sweden should have had twice that possibly more. But they have under 10k. Today.

Its that cancel mentality in real life. I dont like some facts so I just throw enough mud in their direction. Even my mum thinks now that Sweden are granny killers and she knows nothing about any of this.

The consistent argument on this thread is to take the extreme version of the opposing argument and then claim when that extreme did not happen that it disproves the full argument.

In march the very upper end of the range of death rates for what was a brand new virus would have put us at over 100k. But even at the time the best available data would have put it closer to 30 to 50k. But the tactic of arguing against the worst extreme doesn't work if you acknowledge the the extreme end of the opposing view does not represent that view

niallo27

niallo27 wrote: »

What about Denmark.

286 deaths per million compared to 971 in Sweden

FintanMcluskey

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Some of these new variants of this disease emerging are raising serious concerns. Boris Johnson just now has singled out the Brazilian variant for special attention (already identified in Japan) and that every step will be taken to keep that version out of the UK.

It's yet another demonstration of the nature and long term challenge this pandemic poses.

Restrictions will keep matching the current and emerging threats ultimately.

When the economic and sunk cost of restrictions become evident and felt this disease will be way down the list of priorities.

Thankfully, because it’s given rise to a very unsettling element in society

Thespoofer

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Maybe he can’t afford to feed his family?

Lots of people I know are doing nixers to survive. Painting, windows, fixing PCs, DIY, Haircuts.

The government are forcing people out of work, paying them a small amount of money and then taxing them on said money.

It’s survival first

Not looking for an arguement but if I could thank this post twice I would.

Kermit.de.frog

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Some of these new variants of this disease emerging are raising serious concerns. Boris Johnson just now has singled out the Brazilian variant for special attention (already identified in Japan) and that every step will be taken to keep that version out of the UK.

It's yet another demonstration of the nature and long term challenge this pandemic poses.

Restrictions will keep matching the current and emerging threats ultimately.

Honest question, how long do you think we can sustain the restrictions?

In terms of finances, borrowing 20 billion a year is not sustainable at all. Keeping 20% unemployed is not really sustainable either. Banks are also not required to be “kind” to people as much as the government advise it.

And that’s just the economics. How long do you think people will tolerate not been able to visit family and close friends.

In my opinion, there needs to be an end to this in 2021. If not, compliance and finances will be collapsing.

niallo27

Deleted User wrote: »

286 deaths per million compared to 971 in Sweden

So if Sweden's excess deaths are similar to other years, has anyone looked at the excess deaths in the other Scandinavian countries, they must be way down on other years following this logic.

Boggles

CalamariFritti wrote: »

But Sweden is a thorn in everyone else's side because it effectively debunks everyone else's strategy being 'without alternative'.

Does it debunk New Zealand's strategy?

Does it debunk some of the Asian countries strategies?

Does it debunk America's strategy, the UKs?

I personally don't think it actually debunks anything TBH.

It's their strategy built on their strengths, and in relative terms IMHO have done relatively well with in comparison to the countries that have done the worst, but in comparison to countries similar to them they have done not so well.

But you don't judge your performance by who came last.

Also I think their is false narrative being peddled that Sweden is a Utopian paradise just getting on with things, it isn't.

Penfailed

Captain_Crash wrote: »

Its kind of funny that you think that post was directed at you. Although if I remember right you're of the opinion that anything less than Level 5 is not a lockdown (which is a fair opinion, I think that myself)

I'd a fair idea it wasn't aimed at me (but still felt the need to reply just in case )...and yes, we're agreed that anything less than Level 5 isn't lockdown.

Captain_Crash wrote: »

That's not a lockdown, that's new laws that make available the option of a lockdown? In fact, from reading that, between today and this day last week nothing has changed in Sweden other than the introduction of greater enforcement measures should they be needed?

We're also agreed on that ^^^

niallo27

niallo27 wrote: »

So if Sweden's excess deaths are similar to other years, has anyone looked at the excess deaths in the other Scandinavian countries, they must be way down on other years following this logic.

Sweden's excess deaths are not similar to other years

https://www.statista.com/statistics/525353/sweden-number-of-deaths/

one armed dwarf

Deleted User wrote: »

In my opinion, there needs to be an end to this in 2021. If not, compliance and finances will be collapsing.

I agree with this, but we will really only get there with vaccines.

Going for herd immunity by infection just increases the likelihood for generation of a strain which can escape the vaccines we have. Maybe it's statistically unlikely for now but less so over time.

There seems to be a perception also that the virus will continue to mutate into an even more benign form. Admittedly I've no specialist knowledge so can't speak with authority but I kind of figured that the only real reason for that to happen is if a virus was killing off its hosts too quickly to spread, where being too deadly is an evolutionary dead end. But COVID incubates for a really long time and is spread easily by people not that badly impacted, so this seems far from certain. Even unlikely

Boggles

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

When the economic and sunk cost of restrictions become evident and felt this disease will be way down the list of priorities.

Thankfully, because it’s given rise to a very unsettling element in society

People who believe in science and can understand economics?

walus

emeldc wrote: »

You might want to have another look at Sweden...

[]

Give it a year or two, in comes flu and takes away all those old and frail Scandinavians who have been cocooning and have been shielded in the more pro-lockdown countries. The numbers will even out. But sure, these will not be deaths with COVID, so no one will pay any attention.

CalamariFritti

Boggles wrote: »

Does it debunk New Zealand's strategy?

Does it debunk some of the Asian countries strategies?

Does it debunk America's strategy, the UKs?

I personally don't think it actually debunks anything TBH.

It's their strategy built on their strengths, and in relative terms IMHO have done relatively well with in comparison to the countries that have done the worst, but in comparison to countries similar to them they have done not so well.

But you don't judge your performance by who came last.

Also I think their is false narrative being peddled that Sweden is a Utopian paradise just getting on with things, it isn't.

I didnt say it debunks every single strategy out there. New Zealand is a valid strategy. It has its own problems but it is successful (for now).
I said it debunks that our strategy is without alternative.

ceadaoin.

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Some of these new variants of this disease emerging are raising serious concerns. Boris Johnson just now has singled out the Brazilian variant for special attention (already identified in Japan) and that every step will be taken to keep that version out of the UK.

It's yet another demonstration of the nature and long term challenge this pandemic poses.

Restrictions will keep matching the current and emerging threats ultimately.

You're delusional if you think people are going to accept severe restrictions indefinitely. Much longer and there will be civil unrest and just mass defiance. Theres already a movement in Italy with thousands of restaurants planning to open on Friday regardless of what the government say. Its completely against human nature to live like this, to be expected not to socialise, see loved ones etc for extended periods. Maybe that suits you but for the vast majority, no it doesn't work.

ArthurDayne

Boggles wrote: »

Does it debunk New Zealand's strategy?

Does it debunk some of the Asian countries strategies?

Does it debunk America's strategy, the UKs?

I personally don't think it actually debunks anything TBH.

It's their strategy built on their strengths, and in relative terms IMHO have done relatively well with in comparison to the countries that have done the worst, but in comparison to countries similar to them they have done not so well.

But you don't judge your performance by who came last.

Also I think their is false narrative being peddled that Sweden is a Utopian paradise just getting on with things, it isn't.

I think that false narrative has worked both ways though. No doubt, some have rashly / opportunistically leapt on Sweden’s approach to suggest that it’s a one-size-fits-all remedy that the entire world could adopt — while it’s also very fair to say that many popular media resources have portrayed Sweden’s experience over the past year as being any or all of apocalyptic / senicidal / catastrophic / a total failure. Much has been made of stats such as “deadliest month since such & such” without any consideration of nuance.

The result is that there is (from my own personal experience anyway of being shouted down by peers almost at the mere mention of looking to Sweden as at least being potentially somewhat instructive) a widespread dismissal of even considering to what extent Ireland, as a relatively low population density country and island, could pursue a less stringent Sweden-ish regime.

Though I’ve accepted at this point the discussion is largely academic as, notwithstanding my misgivings on how Ireland approached this, it is clear that the strategy is here to stay until the vaccine has done its job.

walus

Boggles wrote: »

I have never heard of a cap on deaths was 8 million?

What is the source for this, would be interesting to read.

Could you link to it please.

Sorry, don’t have those on hand. I’ve done this research 6 months back. As such you are not going to find a single source for this. It takes an analysis of nonlinear complex systems (the virus will never come in contact with all population, exponential phase duration etc.), T-cells science (that was from a German study), death rate and so on. You can say that it is an estimate, or a scientific guess if you like, but it is still better than pulling the numbers from ‘one’s depth within’, as Fintan has eloquently called pulling numbers from one’s ar5e.

joseywhales

walus wrote: »

Give it a year or two, in comes flu and takes away all those old and frail Scandinavians who have been shielded in the more pro-lockdown countries. The numbers will even out. But sure, these will not be deaths with COVID, so no one will pay any attention.

They will all live for two more years though.

froog

walus wrote: »

Sorry, don’t have those on hand. I’ve done this research 6 months back. As such you are not going to find a single source for this. It takes an analysis of nonlinear complex systems (the virus will never come in contact with all population, exponential phase duration etc.), T-cells science (that was from a German study), death rate and so on. You can say that it is an estimate, or a scientific guess if you like, but it is still better than pulling the numbers from ‘one’s depth within’, as Fintan has eloquently called pulling numbers from one’s ar5e.

:D:D

walus

joseywhales wrote: »

They will all live for two more years though.

Absolutely. But people make mistake by evaluating which country has done better now, when the full set of outcomes will really surface a few years from now. It is just too early to say.

One does not to look far. A few weeks back Ireland was an oasis with low number of cases, only to turn into hell a few weeks later. It is the same with lockdowns, they do save some lives in short term (hard to measure) but will they save lives long term? Wait for all those cases of missed diagnosis, no treatment to add up over the years.

acequion

ceadaoin. wrote: »

You're delusional if you think people are going to accept severe restrictions indefinitely. Much longer and there will be civil unrest and just mass defiance. Theres already a movement in Italy with thousands of restaurants planning to open on Friday regardless of what the government say. Its completely against human nature to live like this, to be expected not to socialise, see loved ones etc for extended periods. Maybe that suits you but for the vast majority, no it doesn't work.

Very well said. Anyone still pushing for tough restrictions are completely blind to the obvious fact that tough restrictions don't work. If they did we would not be in the situation we're in. A child could see that.

Where the Govt have failed miserably is in their people management. Anybody who has ever managed people know that constant fear, hysteria, scaremongering and punitive repression of liberties is guaranteed to fail. And it has failed spectacularly in Ireland. The six week lock down for wave 2 is an excellent example. It was imposed almost overnight, destroyed the October bank holiday and Halloween, both for business people and the public, went on for a miserable six weeks and was actually lifted too early. I didn't support that lockdown but could they not at least have managed the timing better!! There is no doubt that a lot of the going mad in the run up to and at xmas was a release of pent up frustration from months of restrictions. Many/most just gave up at that point. And judging by the amount of traffic and movement around at the moment many still haven't bought back in.

The only way such restrictions will work is by enforcing them and by severely punishing breaches. And that's repression and I hope never to see such repression in my lifetime. But apart from repression the only other way to navigate a major crisis is through smart leadership, smart people management, smart crisis management, smart timing and good communication. Extremely difficult no doubt and an extremely tough job for political leaders the world over and mistakes are inevitable. But on a score of 0-10 I would rate our Govt as very close to zero and it gives me no pleasure to say that.

FintanMcluskey

ceadaoin. wrote: »

You're delusional if you think people are going to accept severe restrictions indefinitely. Much longer and there will be civil unrest and just mass defiance. Theres already a movement in Italy with thousands of restaurants planning to open on Friday regardless of what the government say. Its completely against human nature to live like this, to be expected not to socialise, see loved ones etc for extended periods. Maybe that suits you but for the vast majority, no it doesn't work.

Wow, the Italians have had an easy time of restrictions compared to Ireland in 2020.

But they have had enough!

No curtain twitchers in Italy by the looks of things

emeldc

acequion wrote: »

Very well said. Anyone still pushing for tough restrictions are completely blind to the obvious fact that tough restrictions don't work. If they did we would not be in the situation we're in. A child could see that.

Where the Govt have failed miserably is in their people management. Anybody who has ever managed people know that constant fear, hysteria, scaremongering and punitive repression of liberties is guaranteed to fail. And it has failed spectacularly in Ireland. The six week lock down for wave 2 is an excellent example. It was imposed almost overnight, destroyed the October bank holiday and Halloween, both for business people and the public, went on for a miserable six weeks and was actually lifted too early. I didn't support that lockdown but could they not at least have managed the timing better!! There is no doubt that a lot of the going mad in the run up to and at xmas was a release of pent up frustration from months of restrictions. Many/most just gave up at that point. And judging by the amount of traffic and movement around at the moment many still haven't bought back in.

The only way such restrictions will work is by enforcing them and by severely punishing breaches. And that's repression and I hope never to see such repression in my lifetime. But apart from repression the only other way to navigate a major crisis is through smart leadership, smart people management, smart crisis management, smart timing and good communication. Extremely difficult no doubt and an extremely tough job for political leaders the world over and mistakes are inevitable. But on a score of 0-10 I would rate our Govt as very close to zero and it gives me no pleasure to say that.

Ah make up your mind FFS. LOL.

walus

acequion wrote: »

Very well said. Anyone still pushing for tough restrictions are completely blind to the obvious fact that tough restrictions don't work. If they did we would not be in the situation we're in. A child could see that.

Where the Govt have failed miserably is in their people management. Anybody who has ever managed people know that constant fear, hysteria, scaremongering and punitive repression of liberties is guaranteed to fail. And it has failed spectacularly in Ireland. The six week lock down for wave 2 is an excellent example. It was imposed almost overnight, destroyed the October bank holiday and Halloween, both for business people and the public, went on for a miserable six weeks and was actually lifted too early. I didn't support that lockdown but could they not at least have managed the timing better!! There is no doubt that a lot of the going mad in the run up to and at xmas was a release of pent up frustration from months of restrictions. Many/most just gave up at that point. And judging by the amount of traffic and movement around at the moment many still haven't bought back in.

The only way such restrictions will work is by enforcing them and by severely punishing breaches. And that's repression and I hope never to see such repression in my lifetime. But apart from repression the only other way to navigate a major crisis is through smart leadership, smart people management, smart crisis management, smart timing and good communication. Extremely difficult no doubt and an extremely tough job for political leaders the world over and mistakes are inevitable. But on a score of 0-10 I would rate our Govt as very close to zero and it gives me no pleasure to say that.

The government signed up to this lockdown-until-vaccine franchise, but forgot to pick up the manual how to implement it as they were living Brussels in a rush. They got nphet to roll this out, which is a completely dysfunctional body as we all know it at this point.

walus

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

When the economic and sunk cost of restrictions become evident and felt this disease will be way down the list of priorities.

Thankfully, because it’s given rise to a very unsettling element in society

I think there is more to it. As they say ‘don’t let the good crisis go to waste’ there is going to be fundamental changes introduced to the monetary and financial system. The economy will need fixing and so cash and currency will go extinct, and CDBC programmable money/credit will be used instead. It will be very easy to control the population and execute the desired behaviour.

walus

Deleted User wrote: »

Sweden's excess deaths are not similar to other years

https://www.statista.com/statistics/525353/sweden-number-of-deaths/

They also weren’t in 2019.