Relaxation of Restrictions, Part VII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

growleaves

Deleted User wrote: »

Perception is a slave to cognitive biases.

A repeating cycle of observe - interpret - test - refine is long established as producing the most accurate models of how the works works, in any field

I'm not just talking about scientific processes here though, I'm talking about everything and anything.

If I walk around my city and see a lot of unafraid people out getting on with things I can draw some inferences from that without producing a 'model of public behaviour in response to the pandemic and mitigaton methods'.

Especially when I think back to having walked around the same streets last March and seeing the looks on people's faces and the almost physical suspicion gripping them.

That is a qualitative change of some kind.

growleaves

growleaves wrote: »

I'm not just talking about scientific processes here though, I'm talking about everything and anything.

If I walk around my city and see a lot of unafraid people out getting on with things I can draw some inferences from that without producing a 'model of public behaviour in response to the pandemic and mitigaton methods'.

Especially when I think back to having walked around the same streets last March and seeing the looks on people's faces and the almost physical suspicion gripping them.

That is a qualitative change of some kind.

And it’s measurable and testable. The google mobility data is free for all to see. People have gotten used to living with the changes that have come about. That’s why people are more relaxed. It’s become routine. Doesn’t mean people don’t see the need for action

Mr. Karate

GazzaL wrote: »

From talking with a number of (non-hospitality) business owners over the last few days, they're all planning on re-opening at the start of February regardless of what restrictions are in place. Some could arguably still be open now depending on how you interpret the guidelines. In another two weeks, they'll all be turning on the lights and opening the doors.

They're already rebelling in Italy and Poland.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9tE_RLkErRk

So its about time the Irish did as well.

[Deleted User]

[Deleted User] wrote: »

And it’s measurable and testable. The google mobility data is free for all to see. People have gotten used to living with the changes that have come about. That’s why people are more relaxed. It’s become routine. Doesn’t mean people don’t see the need for action

Nobody that I know is getting used to living like this. Everybody is dying for normality to return.

[Deleted User]

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Nobody that I know is getting used to living like this. Everybody is dying for normality to return.

They are dying to return to normality but used to dealing with the daily inconveniences.

Mr. Karate

Graham wrote: »

because the gut feelings of a bunch of anti-restriction posters would be a much more reliable indicator of the mood of the nation? :rolleyes:

"Hilary has a 98% chance of victory." Who won again?

Polls aren't indicative either since the the host of the polls can manipulate it to get their desired result.

Mr. Karate

Mr. Karate wrote: »

"Hilary has a 98% chance of victory." Who won again?

Polls aren't indicative either since the the host of the polls can manipulate it to get their desired result.

Was closer to 70% on the eve of election, and results were within the margin of error. What the polls couldn’t detect was where 60k votes in PA, WI and MI would go. Polls are accurate with in a broad trend but not do much at the smaller scale. That’s why it is both true to say that while the polls on restrictions reflect to opinion of society in general, they don’t reflect some individual groups within society

GazzaL

https://twitter.com/otwieramy

This twitter account highlights some of the businesses like restaurants, bars, hotels and recreational activity venues etc. that are re-opening in Poland despite the restrictions. It's a long list! Great to see.

johnboy1298

Deleted User wrote: »

And it’s measurable and testable. The google mobility data is free for all to see. People have gotten used to living with the changes that have come about. That’s why people are more relaxed. It’s become routine. Doesn’t mean people don’t see the need for action

Did you even look at the mobility data? :rolleyes: 23% increase in residential movement and a big sustained spike from when the stricter restrictions came back in autumn until the end of the year. All this shows is that people arent going to places that are shut & are getting on with life and getting used to socialising in the only place that's open, their friends houses.

johnboy1298

johnboy1298 wrote: »

Did you even look at the mobility data? :rolleyes: 23% increase in residential movement and a big sustained spike from when the stricter restrictions came back in autumn until the end of the year. All this shows is that people arent going to places that are shut & are getting on with life and getting used to socialising in the only place that's open, their friends houses.

I never said that movement was as low as in April. I said the data was there for all to see, do well done you. Restrictions are not as tight as they were in April

johnboy1298

Deleted User wrote: »

I never said that movement was as low as in April. I said the data was there for all to see, do well done you. Restrictions are not as tight as they were in April

Restrictions are just as tight as they were, people are just ignoring them.

Aph2016

Genuinely interested to know how families are surviving on the PUP with no mortgage breaks, especially with restrictions expected to last until March if not April, probably have some credit cards to still pay if from the Christmas period, savings probably depleted from last year. Must be tough having the government put you out of business.

Don't Chute!

growleaves wrote: »

Let me take a stab at explaining my thoughts so.

Basically what it comes down to for me is that intuition and personal observation are some of the most reliable methods of perception which a person can rely on.

What internet data nerds sneer at as "anecdata" used to be called experience.

From experience we know things and can learn things.

The idea that statistical abstractions are reality itself has crept in in recent years and should be rejected. Abstract thought is only a (partially true) representation of reality at best.

Media is, as the name suggests, a mediation of reality. In other words instead of perceiving things for yourself directly you allow a mediator (a middleman) to tell you what you are to perceive.

The total relegation of direct perception and intuition in favour of 'official' communications is now supposed to be so obvious that anything else is laughable. In fact we are marinaded in spin, half-truths, medico-scientific jargon, and unproven assumptions.

In the last gasp the government itself will admit they lied (e.g. about masks) for 'good reason' - or sometimes even joe soap government supporters will discuss the best PR techniques 'to get people to go along' (as on the main thread).

Newsflash: admitted liars are not a trustworthy source of information

Actually I have to admit I completely misunderstood your posts! I actually thought you were agreeing with him! Sorry man, my fault. Friends?🙂

Graham

growleaves wrote: »

Let me take a stab at explaining my thoughts so.

Basically what it comes down to for me is that intuition and personal observation are some of the most reliable methods of perception which a person can rely on.

What internet data nerds sneer at as "anecdata" used to be called experience.

From experience we know things and can learn things.

The idea that statistical abstractions are reality itself has crept in in recent years and should be rejected. Abstract thought is only a (partially true) representation of reality at best.

Media is, as the name suggests, a mediation of reality. In other words instead of perceiving things for yourself directly you allow a mediator (a middleman) to tell you what you are to perceive.

The total relegation of direct perception and intuition in favour of 'official' communications is now supposed to be so obvious that anything else is laughable. In fact we are marinaded in spin, half-truths, medico-scientific jargon, and unproven assumptions.

In the last gasp the government itself will admit they lied (e.g. about masks) for 'good reason' - or sometimes even joe soap government supporters will discuss the best PR techniques 'to get people to go along' (as on the main thread).

Newsflash: admitted liars are not a trustworthy source of information

So to paraphrase; ignore facts, ignore data go with your feelings because it's all a conspiracy.

What utter tosh.

dublin_paul

Mr. Karate wrote: »

They're already rebelling in Italy and Poland.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9tE_RLkErRk

So its about time the Irish did as well.

That'll get shut down very fast surely, dangerous unscientific rebellion during a pandemic is madness regardless of your feelings behind a keyboard

Aph2016

dublin_paul wrote: »

That'll get shut down very fast surely, dangerous unscientific rebellion during a pandemic is madness regardless of your feelings behind a keyboard

It's not madness when you can't put food on your table.

Silentcorner

What is unscientific are lockdowns.

There is no science or precedent in lockdowns.

The government says so, that is it!

bb1234567

growleaves wrote: »

I'm not just talking about scientific processes here though, I'm talking about everything and anything.

If I walk around my city and see a lot of unafraid people out getting on with things I can draw some inferences from that without producing a 'model of public behaviour in response to the pandemic and mitigaton methods'.

Especially when I think back to having walked around the same streets last March and seeing the looks on people's faces and the almost physical suspicion gripping them.

That is a qualitative change of some kind.

And why do you think this issue should be free of scrutiny under the usual scientific processes?
You can draw inferences, but they're not necessarily reliablle or showing the full picture and that's why polls are the only way of gauging opinon of a large number of people who you don't come into contact with regularly

GazzaL

dublin_paul wrote: »

That'll get shut down very fast surely, dangerous unscientific rebellion during a pandemic is madness regardless of your feelings behind a keyboard

The WHO said lockdowns are a last resort. Anti-science NPHET have repeatedly ignored the WHO.

The police haven't been able to shut down premises in Poland and Italy, so the Gardai have no chance. In places like Lanzarote, at their highest restriction level, hospitality is still open!

Nobody will force you to go into a restaurant or pub. If you want to stay at home, that's your personal choice. I would choose to go to a restaurant and support local jobs.

dublin_paul

Aph2016 wrote: »

It's not madness when you can't put food on your table.

The government should be supporting these industries and workers like we do with the PUP

dublin_paul

GazzaL wrote: »

The WHO said lockdowns are a last resort. Anti-science NPHET have repeatedly ignored the WHO.

The police haven't been able to shut down premises in Poland and Italy, so the Gardai have no chance. In places like Lanzarote, at their highest restriction level, hospitality is still open!

Nobody will force you to go into a restaurant or pub. If you want to stay at home, that's your personal choice. I would choose to go to a restaurant and support local jobs.

You must not have noticed that our hospitals are almost unable to cope. Until vaccines greatly lower hospitalizations lockdowns are obviously effective and needed. I hate being restricted too and hope that the above happens ASAP, but restrictions clearly do work to reduce infections and have to be in place until the hospitals are not under threat

FintanMcluskey

dublin_paul wrote: »

You must not have noticed that our hospitals are almost unable to cope. Until vaccines greatly lower hospitalizations lockdowns are obviously effective and needed. I hate being restricted too and hope that the above happens ASAP, but restrictions clearly do work to reduce infections and have to be in place until the hospitals are not under threat

Mitigation measure like social distancing ad mask wearing are perhaps the most effective

Stay at home orders and business closures are counter productive

Mr. Karate

dublin_paul wrote: »

You must not have noticed that our hospitals are almost unable to cope.

That's not our problem. They knew about about this potential second and third waves all year and failed to prepare for it. We should not be continually punished for their laziness and incompetence.

Silentcorner wrote: »

What is unscientific are lockdowns.

There is no science or precedent in lockdowns.

The government says so, that is it!

Agreed. If the Lockdowns and masks worked then this would already be over with months ago.

HalfAndHalf

GazzaL wrote: »

The WHO said lockdowns are a last resort. Anti-science NPHET have repeatedly ignored the WHO.

The police haven't been able to shut down premises in Poland and Italy, so the Gardai have no chance. In places like Lanzarote, at their highest restriction level, hospitality is still open!

Nobody will force you to go into a restaurant or pub. If you want to stay at home, that's your personal choice. I would choose to go to a restaurant and support local jobs.

Is this the same WHO that told us all back in January 2020 that the virus would not spread from human to human, hugely delayed upgrading Covid’s status from epidemic to pandemic and spent more time trying to not offend China than protect the rest of the world, the same world that funds their cushy jobs?! Yeah how ‘scientific’....

dublin_paul

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Mitigation measure like social distancing ad mask wearing are perhaps the most effective

Stay at home orders and business closures are counter productive

Right now I can't agree with you regarding the opening of business, but very soon I will agree with you because the most vulnerable will have been vaccinated and the reasons for these extreme measures to suppress the virus will have largely disappeared

growleaves

bb1234567 wrote: »

And why do you think this issue should be free of scrutiny under the usual scientific processes?
You can draw inferences, but they're not necessarily reliablle or showing the full picture and that's why polls are the only way of gauging opinon of a large number of people who you don't come into contact with regularly

Ah but I didn't say we should be running purely on street smarts but that our own observations and intuition should come into things as well. If a have a strong personal perception of my own then I will allow it to influence me rather than block it out.

As for the specific issue of polls, I believe the way that questions are phrased influences the outcome. Sometimes people will even feel intimidated and lie to pollsters.

With the Trump-Brexit effect why are the polls always skewed one way? Some could say 'they're only out by ten percent' but why doesn't some pollster have Trump to get ten percent more votes than he did?

In practice these polls always over-predict on the side of the establishment or most powerful faction of the establishment.

The majority of people are go-along-to-get-along and, I think, even in favour of restrictions but I don't think it is a super-majority as represented by these polls. I simply don't believe it and yes I would call it gut instinct.

The whole concept of a BS meter seems to have dropped out of culture entirely. But there is no obligation to ignore that little voice that says 'I don't believe it'.

Graham

Mr. Karate wrote: »

Agreed. If the Lockdowns and masks worked then this would already be over with months ago.

Yeah, they don't appear to have done New Zealand any good at all.

Oh hang on.

https://twitter.com/Independent_ie/status/1350749008369770497

HalfAndHalf

Mr. Karate wrote: »

That's not our problem. They knew about about this potential second and third waves all year and failed to prepare for it. We should not be continually punished for their laziness and incompetence.



Agreed. If the Lockdowns and masks worked then this would already be over with months ago.

And how exactly do you prepare for second and third waves of a pandemic spread by people when some of those people have the attitude of ‘lockdowns and masks don’t work’!

That’s right, as the saying goes, there’s no cure for stupid!

growleaves

The Mail on Sunday columnist, christian and Burkean Conservative, Peter Hitchens, has said:

“Opinion polls are a device for influencing public opinion, not a device for measuring it. Crack that, and it all makes sense.”

I don’t agree with Hitchens on very much, but he is right about this.

In his book The Broken Compass, Hitchens informs us that opinion polls are actually a device for influencing public opinion. He says that the establishment and the media are responsible for this manipulation, based on the misuse of statistics. The overall purpose is to “bring about the thing it claims is already happening”.

The author cites contemporary examples of the media attacking Gordon Brown and the “predicted” win of the Conservative Party at the 2010 general election

We know that political opinion polls are certainly not always an accurate reflection of public opinion. Samples of the population selected to participate may be biased. For example, asking Daily Mail readers who they will vote for will almost certainly produce a majority right wing set of responses. However, if you ask the same question on Twitter, you are much more likely to get a Labour majority.

The polls do have an effect on voter intentions and on those trying to influence the outcome of elections.

https://politicsandinsights.org/2017/04/29/political-polls-and-propaganda-the-writing-on-the-wall/

Mr. Karate

HalfAndHalf wrote: »

And how exactly do you prepare for second and third waves of a pandemic spread

Increasing the amount of ICU beds and Ventilators.