The Forum Games Sheepish Advent Calendar 2020!

Ted_YNWA

Sephiroth_dude wrote:

I'm Fashionable late as usual

You just want Zaph's lap.

Electric Nitwit

No 2D yet so I'll hold off on the teasers for half an hour or so

Sephiroth_dude

Ted_YNWA wrote: »

You just want Zaph's lap.

Tedo is a poopy face!




:pac:

Electric Nitwit

Electric Nitwit wrote: »

No 2D yet so I'll hold off on the teasers for half an hour or so

Poor 2D is having to paint something Mam of 4 described so the trauma may have driven him offline

I'm going to deal with toddler bedtime now so will be back about half eight with the real answer, the all important median, some emotional breakdowns, some amazing maths and, of course, the scores! See you then

Mam of 4

If something goes wrong , blame Mo4!
Cat had kittens? Probably my fault too pppfttt!

Ted_YNWA

Electric Nitwit wrote: »

Poor 2D is having to paint something Mam of 4 described so the trauma may have driven him offline

I'm going to deal with toddler bedtime now so will be back about half eight with the real answer, the all important median, some emotional breakdowns, some amazing maths and, of course, the scores! See you then

That's my excuse too, having to see how much deviation she has caused to the chain.

khalessi

My lights went off obviously Mam of 4's fault

Mam of 4

If ye have the wrong answer?
Well , it'll be my fault as mine is more than likely way off as usual :pac:

the purple tin

Lay off Mam everyone, for your own good.

It's never wise to antagonise an Irish Mammy who has a huge collection of wooden spoons!

Mollyb60

Come on EN!

Electric Nitwit

Mollyb60 wrote: »

Come on EN!

OK, she's not asleep but let's try!
(I may have to disappear)

When I wrote the question I had last year's answer (450k) in mind but I just saw a story from this year saying "close to half a million real trees are now standing in living rooms across Ireland"

Electric Nitwit

We had the usual breakdowns today...

This is going to be the day where it all goes wrong, I think. I have absolutely no idea

People have gone all out with chrimbo decorations this year and I know fake trees have been flying off the shelf. I think real tree sales will be high. But will the mob agree?

My first thought would be a lot more than usual as people are mad to take their mind off this pandemic, even to the extent of leaving their artificial trees in storage. So, my answer is A LOT MORE THAN USUAL. What? You need a number...oh, hold on.

I think this is where my downfall will begin. No idea at all, I don't know if real trees are popular in Ireland, I have never spent Christmas here , always going back home to Greece. So I will make a wild guess

Most people now would have fake plastic trees

Most people probably go fake these days, so I want to say there's only about 800 families who drag tree corpses into their home anymore... and I'm very tempted to just go with that except that my fellow competitors are a combination of properly stupid and creepily festive... or perhaps I really have no idea and am merely deflecting...

This month is flying past. 10 of these done already? I blame Khalessi if this skews everything arseways but she told me to roll some dice. :pac:

I genuinely haven't a clue. We always went with artificial trees.....

Oh good, another tree question, because I did so well on the last one

Took a beating yesterday. I'm gonna go with XXX today. There may be enough crazy weirdos who have theirs bought since June to make that viable. Or not. Who the **** knows with this game? :pac: Sorry I've notice my emails are getting increasingly sweary!

I am supposed to have an advantage on these style
of questions, having a horticulturist other half. He reckons XXX. Now he was a fair bit off on the tallest tree guess so do I go higher or lower?

If in doubt, take the first two numbers in your head and split the difference. I applaud anyone who gets a real tree. I. Could. Not. Be. Arsed.

My head is absolutely melted with this! (The whole thing, not just this question, but this one i tried to do some maths on - let's see how far that gets me :rolleyes:)

I'm stressing about this all damn day!!! I'm gonna look like a fool!

Electric Nitwit

We also had some great maths!

DvB wrote:

Right applying silly logic to this one again.
I vaguely remember reading theres c. 2.2m homes on the island of Ireland, but I read previously ( at least I think I did) that 1 in 5 don't bother with them for various reasons (religon, laziness etc), so that 440,000 to be deducted meaning theres c. 1.76m trees in total, I also heard on Christmas FM recently that c.75% of trees are fake nowadays... so thats another 1.32m that can be taken away from the 1.76m total.. leaving 440,000 trees that are real & grown in Ireland.

So 440,000 is what I suspect is roughly around the real answer... so now to apply the logic of this game & think what everyone else is going to say... probably say its half & half & go anything from 600k to a million... so i'll just round mine up to half a million & hope for the best...

500,000 it is.

rainbowtrout wrote:

Ahhhh, more population calculations.

So if there are 4.8million people in the country and say 2.5-3 people per household, probably means about 1.6-1.7 million households. So some will have a fake tree like I do cause I can't be arsed getting a new one each year, but I'd say nearly every house in the country has a tree of some sort, but there's bound to be some grinches or people living in house shares that don't have trees.

There must be at least half a million trees sold I reckon. That's a massive number when I see it written down....

Then again I thought people would eat more mince pies, so maybe it's less.

Sure go 500,000

Molly wrote:

Ok so approximately 6 million in the island. I'm assuming at least 70% of households (not people which is why my math was wrong at first) are not grinches and will have some sort of tree. Including my weird MIL who puts hers up on Christmas Eve and takes it down on Stephens Day. :rolleyes:
So of that 70% I'm assuming it's a 50/50 break between real and fake. Which leads me to my magic number of 525,000 real trees in Ireland this year.

That still seems high. Hopefully this won't be a mince pies embarrassment again.

Loughc wrote:

Right time to shine Busy at Maths 3.

Taking population at a nice even 5,000,000 cause I’m lazy, assuming average household houses 4, leaves us with 1,250,000 houses, assuming half of them go for an artificial tree, 625,000 households left. Assuming them that only 75% of those households celebrate Christmas I’m going to go with;

468,750

Mirrorwall wrote:

So I think there’s 4.5 million people in the country. Let’s say 3-4 people per household so there 1.2 million odd households? And then let’s say 75% of them get a tree so that’s 900,000 possible trees. And then half of them use artificial so maybe 450,000?

That’s a mental number.... awh here just roll with it. 450,000

Now there’s a problem if my original number was wrong... and a problem if there’s not 3-4 people a household and a...

Stop it. Just stick with it lol

And so close, until the grinch factor...

Homer wrote:

Right. 6 million-ish on the island of Ireland.
Let's say 3.5 people per average household, so that's 1.714 million households.
Let's say 70% of these households have a tree, so that's 1.2 million houses with trees.
And let's say 40% of those have a real tree, so that's 480,000 trees.
And that sounds way too high, so I'm going to arbitrarily halve it by applying a 'Grinch factor' and say 240,000.

The assumptions may be wrong but at least they are mathematically consistent(ish) ! :P

Sephiroth_dude

Ohhh ffs, I knew I should have gone with half a million

Omg I was planning to say half a million and then chickened out, convinced I was an idiot. Noooooooo

HeidiHeidi

Uh oh......

Purgative

Deleted User wrote: »

Omg I was planning to say half a million and then chickened out, convinced I was an idiot. Noooooooo

You and me both

Mam of 4

Well I truly fecked up again .

Electric Nitwit

Remarkably ten people said 500,000!

...but, even more remarkably, despite that, it wasn't the median. For a good while dave vs his dice roll were the median, but in the end it settled on 400,000

No one did too badly today, just one very small negative score.

Congrats to Duffman, Neo, Siobh and Toto (and almost Dave) on full marks...

HeidiHeidi

Purgative wrote: »

You and me both

You and (s)he and me threeth!

Electric Nitwit

Player | Guess | Score
Declan A Walsh | 27,500 | 0.0
Hyblaeus | 75,000 | 1.3
Purgative | 85,000 | 1.5
aaronjennings | 100,000 | 1.9
Also Starring LeVar Burton | 100,000 | 1.9
ShaneU | 100,000 | 1.9
Builebeag | 130,000 | 2.7
Sephiroth_dude | 135,000 | 2.9
mustang shelly | 140,000 | 3.0
HeidiHeidi | 150,000 | 3.3
Ted_YNWA | 187,123 | 4.3
Zaph | 225,000 | 5.3
Homer J. Fong | 240,000 | 5.7
Irish Aris | 250,000 | 6.0
kitten_k | 250,000 | 6.0
Trigger | 250,000 | 6.0
Kolido | 255,000 | 6.1
Mam of 4 | 259,123 | 6.2
Barney92 | 275,000 | 6.6
bubblypop | 300,000 | 7.3
JohnGreenFan | 300,000 | 7.3
the purple tin | 300,000 | 7.3
duffman13 | 400,000 | 10.0
Neowise | 400,000 | 10.0
Siobh73 | 400,000 | 10.0
Toto Wolfcastle | 400,000 | 10.0
davetherave | 401,317 | 10.0
mirrorwall14 | 450,000 | 8.7
hurlingman97 | 460,000 | 8.4
Loughc | 468,750 | 8.2
cee_jay | 500,000 | 7.3
DvB | 500,000 | 7.3
Ectoplasm | 500,000 | 7.3
Green&Red | 500,000 | 7.3
looksee | 500,000 | 7.3
Necro | 500,000 | 7.3
Posy | 500,000 | 7.3
rainbowtrout | 500,000 | 7.3
Reberetta | 500,000 | 7.3
TRS30 | 500,000 | 7.3
Mollyb60 | 525,000 | 6.6
Collie D | 600,000 | 4.6
Spook_ie | 600,000 | 4.6
Strawberry Milkshake | 620,000 | 4.1
khalessi | 700,000 | 1.9
tscul32 | 800,000 | -0.8
Skyler Scarce Frown | | 0.0

khalessi

oops

Mollyb60

As Stamets says:



I am so chuffed with myself. Don't even care if I'm way off the median.

Collie D

This is a load of bollocks.

I get close to the answer and I get **** all. I get far from the answer and I get even less than **** all.

You’ve ruined Christmas

Electric Nitwit

Which means we have a new leader!
Siobh's perfect ten has propelled her to the top

Place | Player | Old total | Today's score | Total
1 (3) | Siobh73 | 77.6 | 10.0 | 87.6
2 (1) | Green&Red | 79.6 | 7.3 | 86.9
3 (2) | Loughc | 77.6 | 8.2 | 85.7
4 (4) | hurlingman97 | 75.8 | 8.4 | 84.1
5 (5) | JohnGreenFan | 75.6 | 7.3 | 82.9
6 (6) | rainbowtrout | 75.6 | 7.3 | 82.9
7 (13) | Toto Wolfcastle | 72.1 | 10.0 | 82.1
8 (9) | Necro | 73.6 | 7.3 | 80.9
9 (8) | Irish Aris | 74.9 | 6.0 | 80.8
10 (10) | DvB | 73.2 | 7.3 | 80.5
11 (12) | cee_jay | 72.6 | 7.3 | 79.9
12 (18) | duffman13 | 69.2 | 10.0 | 79.2
13 (14) | Reberetta | 71.5 | 7.3 | 78.8
14 (20) | davetherave | 68.3 | 10.0 | 78.3
15 (15) | Posy | 70.5 | 7.3 | 77.8
16 (7) | khalessi | 75.2 | 1.9 | 77.2
17 (23) | Neowise | 66.7 | 10.0 | 76.7
18 (22) | mirrorwall14 | 67.9 | 8.7 | 76.6
19 (16) | Zaph | 70.4 | 5.3 | 75.7
20 (11) | ShaneU | 73.2 | 1.9 | 75.2
21 (19) | Homer J. Fong | 68.6 | 5.7 | 74.3
22 (21) | Trigger | 68.2 | 6.0 | 74.2
23 (27) | bubblypop | 63.4 | 7.3 | 70.7
24 (25) | Spook_ie | 65.3 | 4.6 | 69.9
25 (17) | Declan A Walsh | 69.6 | 0.0 | 69.6
26 (26) | Collie D | 64.8 | 4.6 | 69.4
27 (24) | mustang shelly | 65.8 | 3.0 | 68.8
28 (29) | Ectoplasm | 61.2 | 7.3 | 68.6
29 (28) | Builebeag | 63.2 | 2.7 | 65.9
30 (30) | Kolido | 57.2 | 6.1 | 63.3
31 (35) | TRS30 | 53.6 | 7.3 | 60.9
32 (34) | HeidiHeidi | 55.3 | 3.3 | 58.6
33 (31) | Hyblaeus | 57.1 | 1.3 | 58.3
34 (32) | Purgative | 56.6 | 1.5 | 58.1
35 (36) | Mollyb60 | 49.7 | 6.6 | 56.3
36 (33) | tscul32 | 55.3 | -0.8 | 54.6
37 (37) | kitten_k | 48.5 | 6.0 | 54.4
38 (38) | Mam of 4 | 46.6 | 6.2 | 52.8
39 (40) | Strawberry Milkshake | 45.5 | 4.1 | 49.6
40 (39) | Sephiroth_dude | 45.6 | 2.9 | 48.4
41 (41) | aaronjennings | 45.4 | 1.9 | 47.3
42 (43) | Barney92 | 40.6 | 6.6 | 47.2
43 (42) | Also Starring LeVar Burton | 43.5 | 1.9 | 45.5
44 (45) | the purple tin | 33.5 | 7.3 | 40.8
45 (44) | Skyler Scarce Frown | 33.8 | 0.0 | 33.8
46 (46) | Ted_YNWA | 29.1 | 4.3 | 33.3
47 (47) | looksee | 8.7 | 7.3 | 16.0

Siobh73

Yes!!! I am so happy right now!

I'm actually raging right now!!!!!!!!!!

Toto Wolfcastle

Ha I was going to say 50,000 but I got busy in work before I had a chance to submit my answer and came to my senses.

Electric Nitwit

Collie D wrote: »

You’ve ruined Christmas

Irish Aris

oh oh, I went too low. . .

edit: but it wasn't that bad after all