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How much can we borrow?

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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,817 ✭✭✭Darc19


    FFG? Who is that?

    It what the SF/IRA types call the current coalition government of the Republic of Ireland because they were told to do so by their bosses in Belfast


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,332 ✭✭✭Arthur Daley


    He explains how this is not true, how the largest holder American debt are the American people

    The largest holder of our debt is ourselves via the Central Bank. It's never going to come all due at once.

    Ah well that's ok then.

    So this money is owed to ourselves, and it seems the same the World over. We better hope it can be repaid. It would be normal and expected that those owed the money would question it's ability to be repaid. It's been this way since time immemorial. Some are more sceptical than others. It's not unusual.

    Shakespeare wrote: 'Neither a borrower nor a lender be'


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,357 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    Darc19 wrote: »
    It what the SF/IRA types call the current coalition government of the Republic of Ireland because they were told to do so by their bosses in Belfast

    FFG = Fianna Fáil and Greens obviously...


  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,963 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    Ah well that's ok then.

    So this money is owed to ourselves, and it seems the same the World over. We better hope it can be repaid. It would be normal and expected that those owed the money would question it's ability to be repaid. It's been this way since time immemorial. Some are more sceptical than others. It's not unusual.

    Shakespeare wrote: 'Neither a borrower nor a lender be'

    Shakespeare was hardly a world renowned economist...

    We are able to finance our debt for essentially free. Our repayments are lower than inflation. Pretty much no countries' national debt is ever going to be "repaid".


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,332 ✭✭✭Arthur Daley


    Podge_irl wrote: »
    Shakespeare was hardly a world renowned economist...

    We are able to finance our debt for essentially free. Our repayments are lower than inflation. Pretty much no countries' national debt is ever going to be "repaid".

    So those 'investing' in this debt have the reward that they will see negative real returns. The yield on the debt will be below the inflation rate. Seems like a sound investment for the years ahead.


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  • Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 38,422 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    mcsean2163 wrote: »
    I take the Oxford data and analyse for Ireland and list the sources. Maths is math, interpret the results the way you like.

    Are you challenging the objectivity of math?
    So in order to understand your post I need to read your blog and then follow up on its sources.
    If you want to pimp your blog then pay for advertising! At least have the integrity to say to people reading your post that you've analysed the data on your blog so they can decide whether or not to visit it.

    I say this without a mod hat on but, if you wish, I can put that hat on!


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,993 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    mcsean2163 wrote: »
    A simple Google would have shown you multiple results or even reading back in the thread. Here it is again.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/ireland-to-have-highest-debt-per-head-in-europe-this-year-1.4503652?mode=amp

    I am curious about this figure, and would prefer to see the raw data, rather than an IT article.

    I am looking for the raw data now.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,993 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    mcsean2163 wrote: »
    In case anyone wondering about the one billion figure.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/the-plan-to-tackle-ireland-s-housing-crisis-has-failed-1.4528364?mode=amp

    This shift from bricks to benefits has been one of most eye-catching features of the Government’s housing policy. Spending on rent subsidies has doubled since 2016 and will be close to €1 billion this year.

    This is frightening, and appears to be very bad policy, on the face of it.

    It is cheaper to build public housing in the cities, rather than lease them.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,993 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    Geuze wrote: »
    I am curious about this figure, and would prefer to see the raw data, rather than an IT article.

    I am looking for the raw data now.

    This DoF report on the public debt confirms it:

    https://assets.gov.ie/121034/b1597369-c72e-46f7-967b-74113ed45b00.pdf


    Page 4 has several debt metrics.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭mcsean2163


    So in order to understand your post I need to read your blog and then follow up on its sources.
    If you want to pimp your blog then pay for advertising! At least have the integrity to say to people reading your post that you've analysed the data on your blog so they can decide whether or not to visit it.

    I say this without a mod hat on but, if you wish, I can put that hat on!

    I do some stats work, post it online for free and I'm somehow pimping my blog?

    I just checked, there have been 19 views today. I suspect several of those are from my phone. I have 5 followers. Do you think I am somehow earning money from my post? I'd love to know how I could do that because I've literally earned nothing, ever, from blog posts.

    Do you understand the concept of pimping? Sex for money with commission to the pimp.

    If you are a moderator I'd appreciate if you could direct me to the code I have violated because I'm absolutely bewildered by your verbal assault.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭mcsean2163


    Geuze wrote: »
    This DoF report on the public debt confirms it:

    https://assets.gov.ie/121034/b1597369-c72e-46f7-967b-74113ed45b00.pdf


    Page 4 has several debt metrics.

    Great find. If I might paraphrase, we are duffer bunched if there's a hiccup in the economy.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭mcsean2163


    I see the John Oliver video I posted above was removed. It's worth seeking out on YouTube as it's quite relevant to this thread.

    In summary he talks about how the concerns around the accumulation of the national debt, in America, is quite often coming from a place of bad faith. Specifically The Republican Party didn't seem to care about it when Reagan, Bush and Trump all inflated it to pay for large tax cuts for the wealthy. Instead they only show faux concern about it when the likes of Obama or Biden are in office trying to enacting their own policies.

    He mentions how fearmongers like to depict it as something that will all need to be be paid at once to some foreign government (usually depicted as the Chinese) all at the same time. He explains how this is not true, how the largest holder American debt are the American people and that Japan (not China) is actually America's largest creditor.

    Obviously that is all USA specific but a lot of it translates to the Irish context. The largest holder of our debt is ourselves via the Central Bank. It's never going to come all due at once. Quite often as well the people jumping up and down about this, you will find, are not specifically angry about the fact that the money is being spent. What they're angry about is more where, and specifically, who, it is being spent on - the 2 most common bugbears being Social Welfare payments (including PUP in the modern context) and Public Sector wages, pensions and benefits.

    So McSean2163, since you're the one keeping this thread going, may I ask are you either a recipient of PUP or a public sector employee? (In the interest of fairness and transparency I am neither)

    I don't know how this relates to anything I have posted. For me, the most important thing is our citizens and especially our children. Absolutely destroying the public finances is not a legacy I'd like them to inherit and there isn't infinite money.

    The most cost effective means to improve housing, healthcare and opportunity for our society should be selected IMHO. One that doesn't leave the next generation bankrupt.

    Fwiw, I spent 7 months on PUP last year, mainly due to school closures resulting in job loss. I'm not on PUP now and am private sector. It makes me sad to think of that year. Anyway, there you go. No idea why you expect me to be under obligation to share that information. This place, time to log off


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,370 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    mcsean2163 wrote: »
    Fwiw, I spent 7 months on PUP last year, mainly due to school closures resulting in job loss. I'm not on PUP now and am private sector. It makes me sad to think of that year. Anyway, there you go. No idea why you expect me to be under obligation to share that information. This place, time to log off

    Yeah fair enough, it was none of my business and I shouldn't have asked. I spent some time on social welfare myself during the Crash and it's not fun, that's for sure.


  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 36,787 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Mod: Please do not just dump links here. 4 posts have been removed.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭mcsean2163


    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-24/europe-s-most-indebted-countries-aren-t-ready-for-market-reality

    Citigroup Inc. is bracing for a taper of bond buying as early as June, and M&G Investments says it’s time to start shorting peripheral debt.

    We're absolutely screwed. Government has spent money like it's water with no regard for the generation that will have to pay back for spending the most in the EU on covid19 despite having the lowest proportion of our population above 65 i.e. vulnerable. That generation is called our children.

    Remember when they decided to keep all flights open so the virus could circulate until capacity was hit. Finland did not do that. Now they continue to prolong lockdown costing more billions.

    Maybe that was/ is the appropriate action I don't know but as we are now emerging as the most indebted nation per capita in the EU with Biden's 21% tax, can we actually avoid another session with the Troika?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭mcsean2163


    Interesting prediction in the examiner.

    https://www.irishexaminer.com/opinion/columnists/arid-40338710.html?type=amp

    Debt projected to hit €280 billion by 2025. Meanwhile, people are looting in South Africa.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    This is just the same old "we all partied" Sunday Independent post-Celtic Tiger guilt-trip.

    In that worldview saying hello to Gavin Friday in Lillie's Bordello while celebrating the sale of your house over €7 pints while 'Beautiful Day' thumped out on the PA was the benchmark of civility. Now the assumption is that half the 4.5 billion population is on South William Street every weekend at €20 a plate and the other half aspires to be there.

    But as we know, there was severe poverty, addiction and social problems then and there's severe poverty, addiction and social problems now.

    In the article you posted yer man compares supports for Covid-affected familes who have lost their jobs to kids suffering sugar withdrawal symptoms at a birthday party.

    Surely there's a standard of analysis better than this old cack.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭mcsean2163


    We've spent the most in Europe as debt percentage. Denmark actually came in with a surplus.

    Title of thread. How much?

    Looks like 280 billion current target. What happens if nobody will lend to us after 280, that's what he's saying. When it's gone it's gone.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,101 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    If the ECB removes it's bond purchases, most of the EZ economies will be in crisis, not just Ireland.


    This is the problem, how do you taper it off. Especially after such a crisis.

    For 20 years the ECB has had an approach that mostly veered towards very cheap money and for the most of the last decade, free money.


    What the fall out of that will be, who knows.


    The original page with comments about borrowing levels not mattering and technology has controlled inflation are as short sighted as the many previous decades they have been repeated.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭mcsean2163


    Pressure on now to increase corporate tax rate.

    Could affect government income which could affect borrowing. Fingers crossed the EU will write off some of our debt. However, if there is a commodity crunch we could be in big trouble.



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  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,963 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    There has been "pressure" to increase our corporate tax rate for 20 years. This is not news.


    Is there any particular reason you are so fond of doom mongering about Ireland's ability to borrow, which currently is basically at the insanely easy level?



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,101 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    It's a problem for most of the western world but especially in Europe.

    It's that it is insanely easy to borrow money, so insanely cheap that is the Problem.

    It's been like that in Europe now for most of 20 years.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,370 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    The restrictive policies imposed in response to the last economic crisis were a mistake that prolonged the recession, the European Commission’s economic chief has told The Irish Times.

    “I think it was a mistake, the – you can call it austerity, of course,” Gentiloni said of the economic response to the financial crisis of 2007-2008 and its aftermath, the euro zone debt crisis.

    “We acted very slowly. We declared mission accomplished too soon. And then the result was that we were dealing with this crisis for seven, eight years.”


    link



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭mcsean2163




  • Registered Users Posts: 13,101 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    One of the few countries in the modern world to run a current account surplus for most of the last 20 years.


    Italy has no shortage of problems as you suggest though. With debt it is more that they haven't grown much since joining the Euro but the old debt pile has.


    The Italian EU man's point I guess is that the EU were late to dealing with the crisis, took years longer to get it under control and didn't even then resolve bigger problems.


    Free loans and QE are keeping the Eurozone economy going.


    Is it a long term solution.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭mcsean2163


    Sadly a current account surplus is not enough to offset their crippling real debt.


    Worth recalling.... https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/15/8161

    The large-scale perturbation of ecosystems as the sixth extinction event progresses is likely to have severe global consequences, with the provision of vital ‘ecosystem services’ likely to severely reduce as effects cascade at global-scale [35]. The growth in human populations and technological development can be linked [37] to resource consumption, and the propensity for humans to destroy forest ecosystems gives a high probability (>90%) that global civilisation is very likely to suffer a catastrophic collapse in future (within a few decades).

    Italy not well placed.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-15/italy-targeting-11-8-budget-deficit-to-keep-economy-afloat

    There probably needs to be some general kind of debt write down in the EU now because if times get tough the EU might actually break up as can't imagine prudent countries would consider it very fair paying for profligate countries like Ireland forever....



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