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Covid 19 Part XXIX-85,394 ROI(2,200 deaths) 62,723 NI (1,240 deaths) (26/12) Read OP

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,915 ✭✭✭Polar101


    prunudo wrote: »
    Does anyone have a link to a good graphic breakdown of where we are now. I can't keep up with the various restrictions and what dates they kick in.

    Irish Times are usually pretty good with infographics (pretty far down in the article).

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/covid-19-what-new-restrictions-are-being-introduced-and-when-1.4443915

    Link to the graphic, which is in the article: https://www.datawrapper.de/_/bGqBW/

    Subject to change, of course.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,049 ✭✭✭✭niallo27


    seamus wrote: »
    Herd immunity takes years to occur naturally in large and widely distributed populations. For pathogens that mutate regularly, like viruses, it basically means herd immunity never occurs. The virus mutates into something else well before then.

    This is why there is no generally immunity to colds and 'flu.

    It's also typically acquired immunity, which means that it fades between generations.

    After about five years the Black Death appeared to have all the characteristics of herd immunity, but then 20 or 30 years later, it made another surge. Same bacteria, new population. And it continued to come in similar waves throughout Europe for the next 400 years.

    You can't compare the flu to covid, covid does not mutate in the same way which is why we need a new flu jab every year.


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    I wouldnt say x10 is in any way farcical. WHO themselves go with factor 10. And yes thats an estimate too but farcical?

    10x may have been reasonable in spring, however based on what we have seen since it was likely closer to 5x. Now however it’s wildly inaccurate. If we have been at 10x since august when testing was really ramped us. That’s 600,000 cases with less than 500 deaths. At the same rate over 2million would have been infected in the spring. That would be over 50% of the population. At that level case would be slowing we no restrictions and any sort of measures at all would control it completely. That’s why it is obvious to anyone who takes any sort of critical look at numbers that we are not at 10x.


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    niallo27 wrote: »
    You can't compare the flu to covid, covid does not mutate in the same way which is why we need a new flu jab every year.

    The flu need a new vaccine every year because there are multiple strains in circulation and the dominant strains change every year, and because it mutates. Covid may not mutate in the same way or as fast as influenza, however it does mutate. How else did it cross into humans


  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 11,794 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,049 ✭✭✭✭niallo27


    The flu need a new vaccine every year because there are multiple strains in circulation and the dominant strains change every year, and because it mutates. Covid may not mutate in the same way or as fast as influenza, however it does mutate. How else did it cross into humans

    Well what I have read which may be wrong is "For most viruses, replication involves making many errors. This means that viruses like the flu mutate rapidly. This can mean that many treatments and vaccines become ineffective, and is one of the reasons why we need a new flu jab every year.

    However, coronaviruses proofread their replicated genome and so they accumulate mutations at a slower rate. Mutations do occur, though, and could have many different effects on the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus and our ability to control the pandemic.

    The majority of mutations will have no impact on the virus or on the disease. Occasionally a mutation will enable greater growth, transmissibility or escape from the immune system, in which case the mutated virus may spread widely throughout the population."

    I'm only reading and learning like all of us, but the original point that herd immunity would never work is probably wrong from a mutation point of view, now we know its a non runner because of the pressure on hospitals and thousands getting very sick.


  • Registered Users Posts: 387 ✭✭rooney30


    niallo27 wrote: »
    You can't compare the flu to covid, covid does not mutate in the same way which is why we need a new flu jab every year.

    How In Gods name can you possibly say this ? . Covid is around less than a year . Come back in 10 years maybe and we might have an answer


  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 11,794 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    On the possibility that a mutation might occur which may render one of the vaccines less effective, we may only find that out once a significant proportion of the population is vaccinated, as that will create the selective pressure for the mutated strain, if it exists.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,049 ✭✭✭✭niallo27


    rooney30 wrote: »
    How In Gods name can you possibly say this ? . Covid is around less than a year . Come back in 10 years maybe and we might have an answer

    Corona viruses have been around decades.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,148 ✭✭✭✭normanoffside


    Stheno wrote: »
    Worldwide antibody test studies do not back this up at all

    Asymptomatic cases don’t produce antibodies or ones that last. Most have T Cell immunity


  • Registered Users Posts: 314 ✭✭Golfman64


    jackboy wrote: »
    Yeah but the risk is probably tiny compared to gatherings with no mask wearing.

    Exactly - The economy matters too and the government are trying to find a better balance this time around. 30,000 people unemployed since Christmas Eve following the enforced closure of hospitality. Another 40,000 would be unemployed if non essential retail closed. I think a much better balance has been found this time around when compared to October. We need to give it another 2+ weeks to see the effect on cases. Time to stay patient and resist the ‘knee jerk’ further restrictions...


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    niallo27 wrote: »
    Well what I have read which may be wrong is "For most viruses, replication involves making many errors. This means that viruses like the flu mutate rapidly. This can mean that many treatments and vaccines become ineffective, and is one of the reasons why we need a new flu jab every year.

    However, coronaviruses proofread their replicated genome and so they accumulate mutations at a slower rate. Mutations do occur, though, and could have many different effects on the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus and our ability to control the pandemic.

    The majority of mutations will have no impact on the virus or on the disease. Occasionally a mutation will enable greater growth, transmissibility or escape from the immune system, in which case the mutated virus may spread widely throughout the population."

    I'm only reading and learning like all of us, but the original point that herd immunity would never work is probably wrong from a mutation point of view, now we know its a non runner because of the pressure on hospitals and thousands getting very sick.

    Oc43 has been here since about 1890 with no sign of herd immunity


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,134 ✭✭✭mollser


    igCorcaigh wrote: »

    Shocking and all as that sounds, doesn't about 1 in 85 odd people die in the US every year?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,049 ✭✭✭✭niallo27


    Oc43 has been here since about 1890 with no sign of herd immunity

    It's obviously not as contagious, or maybe we are immune to more severe affects. I don't know, very little online about it.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,274 ✭✭✭Lollipop95


    Could the 5km rule be imposed again?


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,205 ✭✭✭✭hmmm


    Oc43 has been here since about 1890 with no sign of herd immunity
    But it's a minor nuisance, so based on what we suspect happened with this something has changed in how our immune system reacts to it.

    I'd prefer to get a vaccination and some level of antibodies, and only then get Covid or a variant rather than get the novel virus. We might not know exactly what happens, but there's a reasonable chance the pre-existing immunity will prevent or moderate illness.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,147 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    Golfman64 wrote: »
    Exactly - The economy matters too and the government are trying to find a better balance this time around. 30,000 people unemployed since Christmas Eve following the enforced closure of hospitality. Another 40,000 would be unemployed if non essential retail closed. I think a much better balance has been found this time around when compared to October. We need to give it another 2+ weeks to see the effect on cases. Time to stay patient and resist the ‘knee jerk’ further restrictions...

    We've got a growth rate of 10% per day in cases.
    That means roughly 2,500 cases a day in 7 days time, and 4,900 in 14 days.

    We've never messed around with restrictions or levels with numbers like that. It's a massive risk we're taking.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,172 ✭✭✭wadacrack


    Golfman64 wrote: »
    Exactly - The economy matters too and the government are trying to find a better balance this time around. 30,000 people unemployed since Christmas Eve following the enforced closure of hospitality. Another 40,000 would be unemployed if non essential retail closed. I think a much better balance has been found this time around when compared to October. We need to give it another 2+ weeks to see the effect on cases. Time to stay patient and resist the ‘knee jerk’ further restrictions...

    We are going to have our hospitals over run if we don't go with a harder lockdown. The r rate wont drop below 1. 2 weeks time the situation will be far worse than now tbh.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 104 ✭✭Avoation1091


    We've got a growth rate of 10% per day in cases.
    That means roughly 2,500 cases a day in 7 days time, and 4,900 in 14 days.

    We've never messed around with restrictions or levels with numbers like that. It's a massive risk we're taking.

    There has been L3 with additional houseban visits before another others. Im sure MM and cabinet thought this through. They wouldnt have announced these other wise. They got additional data after the last L5 and stats outside of COVID wernt good. This is a better balance to help mental health and livelihoods as well. Houseban comes into effect next Friday and that really helped before along with hospitality closure. January is usually a quiet month anyway.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,736 ✭✭✭CalamariFritti


    10x may have been reasonable in spring, however based on what we have seen since it was likely closer to 5x. Now however it’s wildly inaccurate. If we have been at 10x since august when testing was really ramped us. That’s 600,000 cases with less than 500 deaths. At the same rate over 2million would have been infected in the spring. That would be over 50% of the population. At that level case would be slowing we no restrictions and any sort of measures at all would control it completely. That’s why it is obvious to anyone who takes any sort of critical look at numbers that we are not at 10x.

    I'm not following you. How could x10 mean we had 2 million in spring? We have 85,000 to date and we had 20,000 at the beginning of May.

    z10 is a rough estimate but if you look at the above there is no plausibiity problem with x10.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,705 ✭✭✭obi604


    IrishHomer wrote: »
    Never thought bookies shops are essential?

    Local shop today was packed.

    Bizarre in my opinion


    The bookies being open is an absolute joke. Essential
    me h0le. Farce. The one in my local town is packed
    also.


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,688 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    obi604 wrote: »
    The bookies being open is an absolute joke. Essential
    me h0le. Farce. The one in my local town is packed
    also.

    All retail is allowed open at the moment


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,985 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    Stheno wrote: »
    Has anyone tracked hospitalisation rates in October versus Marxh/April and gotten a % compared to cases then and now? Paul Cullen in the Irish Times today said hospitalisations and deaths were much lower in October compared to March/April

    https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/health-family/ireland-and-covid-19-what-we-got-right-what-we-got-wrong-1.4432980?mode=amp

    From the start up until 7th May:
    22495 Cases
    2954 Hospital Admissions (13.13%)
    381 ICU admissions (1.69%)
    1195 Deaths (5.3%)

    From 8th May until 30th November:
    50301 Cases
    2286 Hospital Admissions (5.68%)
    243 ICU admissions (0.48%)
    619 Deaths (1.2%)

    Obviously it's really down to the age demographic that has the most impact on the hospital admissions etc...


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,147 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    There has been L3 with additional houseban visits before another others. Im sure MM and cabinet thought this through. They wouldnt have announced these other wise. They got additional data after the last L5 and stats outside of COVID wernt good. This is a better balance to help mental health and livelihoods as well. Houseban comes into effect next Friday and that really helped before along with hospitality closure. January is usually a quiet month anyway.

    They can think it through all they want, but they're never going to be as good as the experts on this stuff, and they disagree with the gov.

    My guess is that the experts are closer to being correct, and that we'll eventually have to go into a harsher lockdown to regain control, and the effects on mental health and the economy won't be good.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,945 ✭✭✭growleaves


    Merry Christmas everyone.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 139 ✭✭Pcgamer


    Close the schools for three months and get back to 50 a day.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,035 ✭✭✭Mike3549


    Pcgamer wrote: »
    Close the schools for three months and get back to 50 a day.

    Go back to your party


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,839 ✭✭✭Cluedo Monopoly


    Lollipop95 wrote: »
    Could the 5km rule be imposed again?

    Did anyone take it seriously the last time?

    What are they doing in the Hyacinth House?



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Oc43 has been here since about 1890 with no sign of herd immunity

    There is. Herd immunity is an important part in controlling the spread of the common cold viruses.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,001 ✭✭✭✭Strumms


    Stheno wrote: »
    All retail is allowed open at the moment

    Yep...Nobody ‘needs’ to back a horse or a football result / scorer...

    Most or a lot of retail at some point is essential....


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 139 ✭✭Pcgamer


    Mike3549 wrote: »
    Go back to your party

    Close the schools


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,873 ✭✭✭podgeandrodge


    igCorcaigh wrote: »

    Dunno. If it related to people with significant lifespans ahead it would be a more frightenting statistic. There are probably average stats on how many of the 1 in 1000 deaths would likely have occurred this year anyway, which would presumably bring this down a fair bit?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,450 ✭✭✭✭Jim_Hodge


    Pcgamer wrote: »
    Close the schools

    That party's obviously really hotting up. :rolleyes:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,035 ✭✭✭Mike3549


    Pcgamer wrote: »
    Close the schools

    In fairness, they are closed


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,147 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    Wolf359f wrote: »
    From the start up until 7th May:
    22495 Cases
    2954 Hospital Admissions (13.13%)
    381 ICU admissions (1.69%)
    1195 Deaths (5.3%)

    From 8th May until 30th November:
    50301 Cases
    2286 Hospital Admissions (5.68%)
    243 ICU admissions (0.48%)
    619 Deaths (1.2%)

    Obviously it's really down to the age demographic that has the most impact on the hospital admissions etc...

    We were doing f all testing early on.

    Using your latest hospitalisation rate of 5.68%, if we get to 2,500 cases in 7 days time, that day alone will mean 278 hospital admissions.
    23 ICU admissions.
    59 deaths.


  • Registered Users Posts: 520 ✭✭✭lukas8888


    Strumms wrote: »
    Yep...Nobody ‘needs’ to back a horse or a football result / scorer...

    Most or a lot of retail at some point is essential....

    The bookies will close when non essential retail is closed,most retail is essential, rubbish.


  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 11,794 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    Dunno. If it related to people with significant lifespans ahead it would be a more frightenting statistic. There are probably average stats on how many of the 1 in 1000 deaths would likely have occurred this year anyway, which would presumably bring this down a fair bit?

    Excess deaths are probably a better way of measuring it.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,469 ✭✭✭ShyMets


    Pcgamer wrote: »
    Close the schools

    Echo. Echo


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,688 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    We were doing f all testing early on.

    Using your latest hospitalisation rate of 5.68%, if we get to 2,500 cases in 7 days time, that day alone will mean 278 hospital admissions.
    23 ICU admissions.
    59 deaths.
    Think you've got all those figures wrong

    5.68% of 2500 is 142

    Age demographics would also need to be factored in


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,147 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    Stheno wrote: »
    Think you've got all those figures wrong

    5.68% of 2500 is 142

    Age demographics would also need to be factored in

    Yep. Apologies, I was using a 14 day projection of 4,900


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,985 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    Stheno wrote: »
    Think you've got all those figures wrong

    5.68% of 2500 is 142

    Age demographics would also need to be factored in
    Yep. Apologies, I was using a 14 day projection of 4,900

    Wave-1v2.png
    That's it broken down with age demographics.
    Obviously the high hospitalization in the 0-4 year group was as a precaution early on. First wave obviously was lack of testing in the community, I would assume patients presenting with symptoms were tested in hospital, so even though the number of cases would have been higher, the number hospitalized would be closer to the correct number.


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,688 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    Wolf359f wrote: »
    Wave-1v2.png
    That's it broken down with age demographics.
    Obviously the high hospitalization in the 0-4 year group was as a precaution early on. First wave obviously was lack of testing in the community, I would assume patients presenting with symptoms were tested in hospital, so even though the number of cases would have been higher, the number hospitalized would be closer to the correct number.

    I think your percentages for wave 2 for at least ICU is also wrong compared to your previous post. Totalled instead of averaged?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,985 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    Stheno wrote: »
    I think your percentages for wave 2 for at least ICU is also wrong compared to your previous post. Totalled instead of averaged?

    Thanks for spotting that, it was the % based on hospitalization and not cases. I've corrected the image now. It was just a rush job to see the difference.


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    hmmm wrote: »
    But it's a minor nuisance, so based on what we suspect happened with this something has changed in how our immune system reacts to it.

    I'd prefer to get a vaccination and some level of antibodies, and only then get Covid or a variant rather than get the novel virus. We might not know exactly what happens, but there's a reasonable chance the pre-existing immunity will prevent or moderate illness.

    The likelihood actually is that oc43 caused the Russian “flu”. The virus then became endemic an milder ( or the reaction to the virus became miler because we were all exposed early in our lives)


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    I'm not following you. How could x10 mean we had 2 million in spring? We have 85,000 to date and we had 20,000 at the beginning of May.

    z10 is a rough estimate but if you look at the above there is no plausibiity problem with x10.

    If we are at 10x now, we were at 50x in spring if you look at the death rates. It is completely implausible we are at 10x or anything close at the moment. It was plausible in spring, but probably only 5-6


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  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,688 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    Wolf359f wrote: »
    Thanks for spotting that, it was the % based on hospitalization and not cases. I've corrected the image now. It was just a rush job to see the difference.

    Thanks for posting them up :)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,053 ✭✭✭KrustyUCC


    Lollipop95 wrote: »
    Could the 5km rule be imposed again?

    NPHET will try alright

    I don't think there will be as much cooperation next time around


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,945 ✭✭✭growleaves


    KrustyUCC wrote: »
    NPHET will try alright

    I don't think there will be as much cooperation next time around

    I never will play the wild rover no more (if NPHET have anything to do with it)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,068 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    KrustyUCC wrote: »
    NPHET will try alright

    I don't think there will be as much cooperation next time around

    How many daily fatalities will it take for the co-operation?

    20, 30, 40...?

    Give us a number.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,274 ✭✭✭Lollipop95


    From what I’ve heard from my Aussie connections, Australia is pretty much back to normal. Why is it that we can’t be the same, despite Australia having a larger population than us?


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