Covid 19 Part XXIX-85,394 ROI(2,200 deaths) 62,723 NI (1,240 deaths) (26/12) Read OP

CIARAN_BOYLE

lukas8888 wrote: »

Doctor Holohan at pains to stress that the new variant has so far had limited effect on the escalating numbers but lays the blame squarely at the extra socialising.No doubt it would not suit his non stop blaming hospitality if the new strain was infecting people in every other area of human contact.It begs the question how does he know.

If the new strain was only present in 10% of cases (per the NVRL) how can it explain the growth?

Even if the new strain has grown since the nvrl did work on it and its now present in 30% of new cases it would only explain a small portion of the growth.

Anyway what's all the reference to Tony Holohan? NPHET reccomended closing shops and other measures after their meeting yesterday. The government decision was not to meet til the 29th to consider NPHET advice. Perhaps the government are the one that is blaming hospitality.

Beasty

sonofenoch wrote: »

Quiet angry? quiet like it? .....


This is the result covid has had on schooling

No need to be a grammar nazi

MadYaker

This bizarre notion that Holohans motives are anything other than mitigating the virus isn’t based in reality as far as I can tell.

I also don’t understand people who whinge about the negative coverage. If it bothers people why do they watch it?

Beasty

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

Did we all ask Santa for a vaccine in our stocking

Heard he's delivering santibodies to the over 80s

Steve012

Neamhshuntasach wrote: »

Wonder if covid is weakening while becoming more transmissible. I'd gone through the entire year without really knowing anyone personally who tested positive. Knew a few who were close contacts but ultimately tested negative. Now I know tons. But this is mainly on the back of private tests before meeting up with family or calling for a test saying they had some symptoms.

But no one has symptoms. All completely unaware they would be considered sick. One of my mates had a work party for his business in a big shed with a bar in it out his back garden last week like a dope. 17 of them at it. 14 of them all tested positive this week after 2 tested positive from private tests and the rest got them as close contacts. Other family members now waiting for results due to being in contact with the people at the party. Again no one feeling sick. Strangely enough, or coincidently more likely, the 3 that didn't catch it out of the 17 were the only 3 lads doing coke.

I knew no one who had it first time around or during the summer, now I know 6 people who have got it recently, 2 were hospitalized, 1 was very sick, 1 killer headaches and exhaustion, 2 no symptoms , That's in the past 8 weeks.

lukas8888

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

If the new strain was only present in 10% of cases (per the NVRL) how can it explain the growth?

Even if the new strain has grown since the nvrl did work on it and its now present in 30% of new cases it would only explain a small portion of the growth.

Anyway what's all the reference to Tony Holohan? NPHET reccomended closing shops and other measures after their meeting yesterday. The government decision was not to meet til the 29th to consider NPHET advice. Perhaps the government are the one that is blaming hospitality.

You mean 10% of the ones they analysed for the new strain.As regards hospitality NPHET have non stop pointed their guns at hospitality since the cases started rising.

Ficheall

Whose fault do you think it is, Dr Lukas?

Away With The Fairies

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

Did we all ask Santa for a vaccine in our stocking

I don't want the vaccine in my stocking. I want it in my arm.

lukas8888

Ficheall wrote: »

Whose fault do you think it is, Dr Lukas?

Can you point to anywhere in my posts where i said hospitality was not to blame for spreading the virus.I merely pointed out how NPHET were quick to dismiss the new very contagious strain for the escalation.
I hardly need to remind such a learned one as your good self that sarcasm is the lowest form of wit.

JP Liz V1

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/close-relative-of-woman-whose-funeral-became-super-spreader-dies-39896931.html

Happy4all

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/close-relative-of-woman-whose-funeral-became-super-spreader-dies-39896931.html

Is it wrong that I am not feeling any sympathy?

JeffKenna

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/close-relative-of-woman-whose-funeral-became-super-spreader-dies-39896931.html

I heard a lot of the crowd had come over from England. Is it wrong to ask are they travellers?

Pcgamer

Happy4all wrote: »

Is it wrong that I am not feeling any sympathy?

Can't read the article fully, did they mention age or anything or underlying illness

TonyMaloney

seamus wrote: »

There was a theory put forward that there was a huge surge of requested tests - i.e. people who were not symptomatic and not a close contact - coming up to Christmas.

If we see positivity rates drop back again next week and the week after, then it opens the possibility that the virus is circulating asymptomatically at far higher rates than we suspected. It would mean we're only catching about half of all cases, and we miss the other half because they have few or no symptoms.

If that comes to pass, it also doesn't mean NPHET were wrong. It just illustrates how little we actually know about this virus, and we're doing our best with nothing but a glimpse of the true picture.

Seamus, has a very popular theory (the above, I edited it a bit because it's long enough). It's well thought out, but I think it's completely wrong. Here's why.

I'm also going under the assumption that there are thousands of people seeking tests in the run up to Christmas, just to be on the safe side when meeting up with elders. I won't demonise them. I don't think it's something any of us should be engaging in during a crisis unless we're requested to, but I see the attraction of it. And it is an effort to see loved ones safe.

Here is the our positivity rate and number of tests per day in a chart.
You can see a massive jump in the number of tests in the last two days. Way more then we've ever done before, by far the biggest increase in a single day, and obviously implies a sudden surge in demand. It's an unprecedented jump. We've never seen anything like it before.



So what I believe has happened is that a huge number of people have requested tests to be on the safe side, and the overwhelming majority of them are going to get the good news that they're negative.
In the next chart I show the absolute worst case scenario, where not a single one of them are positive. So I remove them. I've chosen an increase in testing of genuine possible cases of 14,000 on the 23rd and 15,000 on the 25th.
This is not a prediction. It's just illustrative, and those number look to the eye roughly where you'd expect our testing to be.



As you can see in this scenario the positivity rate keeps climbing as before. Now I have to repeat this is the very worst case scenario and relies on rough assumptions. I am not saying our current real positivity rate is 8.4%

I'm saying it's somewhere between our Seamus's number of 5.6% (which is the official number in fairness), and my figure of 8.4%.
I don't know what it actually is, but I'm sorry to say I think it's likely to be quite a bit closer to mine.

Stay safe

Away With The Fairies

Stay safe tomorrow, some helpful tips from UCC for tomorrow, https://mobile.twitter.com/UCC/status/1342079753789075459

JP Liz V1

Have yourself a merry little Christmas
Let your heart be light
As from now on, a vaccine is in sight
So have yourself a merry little Christmas

GooglePlus

Happy4all wrote: »

Is it wrong that I am not feeling any sympathy?

No, it's human. You didn't know them, you're only being honest.

JJayoo

JeffKenna wrote: »

I heard a lot of the crowd had come over from England. Is it wrong to ask are they travellers?

Not only is it a hate crime to.ask that question, but now you and all your family will be rounded up and excuted

yourdeadwright

No Christmas day for me till the 29th
The missus and my son are still in isolation in a hotel as there covid positive so Santa is running abit late this year, Myself and my daughter and are in isolation for being close contacts at home and considering she is only 3 she wont know the date,

Cant complain to much as there many familes who will have lost love ones to this,
Roll on 2021 abd hopefully happier times

JP Liz V1

yourdeadwright wrote: »

No Christmas day for me till the 29th
The missus and my son are still in isolation in a hotel as there covid positive so Santa is running abit late this year, Myself and my daughter and are in isolation for being close contacts at home and considering she is only 3 she wont know the date,

Cant complain to much as there many familes who will have lost love ones to this,
Roll on 2021 abd hopefully happier times

That's tough, take care all of ye and have a nice late Christmas

JP Liz V1

JeffKenna wrote: »

I heard a lot of the crowd had come over from England. Is it wrong to ask are they travellers?

I think we are all assuming they are, I understand close family needing to be there but the max is what 25

Away With The Fairies

yourdeadwright wrote: »

No Christmas day for me till the 29th
The missus and my son are still in isolation in a hotel as there covid positive so Santa is running abit late this year, Myself and my daughter and are in isolation for being close contacts at home and considering she is only 3 she wont know the date,

Cant complain to much as there many familes who will have lost love ones to this,
Roll on 2021 abd hopefully happier times

Hope you have a happy Christmas next week

frank8211

JeffKenna wrote: »

I heard a lot of the crowd had come over from England. Is it wrong to ask are they travellers?

No they are not. Look at the wexford covid19 forum here, or indeed the Waterford one. Look at sportsmans inn page on fecebook. or google ramsgrange. Its an incredible story of stupid behaviour not to mind breaches of regulations. Businesses all around affected and wexfords cases gone though the roof

Arghus

To the ones I agree with and the ones I - frequently - disagree with, have a happy Christmas.

We all want the same thing really.

Stheno

Arghus wrote: »

To the ones I agree with and the ones I - frequently - disagree with, have a happy Christmas.

We all want the same thing really.

Enjoy the break

majcos

HSE operations report 24/12 as of 8pm

Covid cases hospitalised 256 - increase from 253.

ICU confirmed Covid cases 22 decrease from 25
4 deaths in ICUs last 24 hours
Confirmed Covid cases ventilated 12- decrease from 15
Available ICU beds 62

Strumms

lukas8888 wrote: »

Doctor Holohan at pains to stress that the new variant has so far had limited effect on the escalating numbers but lays the blame squarely at the extra socialising.No doubt it would not suit his non stop blaming hospitality if the new strain was infecting people in every other area of human contact.It begs the question how does he know.

he knows because when you are admitted, they require you to name contacts. Where you’ve been , who you have been with and where... your close contacts as part of the contract tracing.

So if you say, on December 12th, I was invited to what was supposed to be a social distant get together at my friend Jim’s rather not spacious or distanced bar, but there were a few too many , instead of the manageable crowd there was 19, I stayed anyway had a few drinks, a few tunes then, people after a few beers and rum n cokes were dancing, hugging.. not distancing....etc...

O’Reillys pub.. 27 Main St, Madeupville, Kildare

Saturday 11/12 20:00-00:00


Known contacts :

T. Murphy
L. Kennedy
B. Haverty
N. Smith
G Kennedy
H. Richards
V. Desmond
...
...
...
...
... etc.

speckle

majcos wrote: »

HSE operations report 24/12 as of 8pm

Covid cases hospitalised 256 - increase from 253.

ICU confirmed Covid cases 22 decrease from 25
4 deaths in ICUs last 24 hours
Confirmed Covid cases ventilated 12- decrease from 15
Available ICU beds 62

Our family has an anniversary of a loved one on Christmas day so my thoughts go out to the familys who lose loved ones over the next few days covid or not.

May they rest in peace and their families and friends find solace in the good memories as time passes.

JP Liz V1

Up to 40 junior doctors at University Hospital Galway are self-isolating amid a major Covid-19 outbreak at the hospital.

Multiple senior medical sources have confirmed that scores of staff have tested positive, while others who are close contacts have been ordered to self-isolate.

There is growing anger and concern among doctors over the current crisis, which will see many doctors spend Christmas alone in rented accommodation.

Morries Wigs

Our government has left the general population of our country open to the virus by leaving people fly in without testing them for the virus and also flying them in to spread it from london without enforcing quarantine