Covid 19 Part XXIX-85,394 ROI(2,200 deaths) 62,723 NI (1,240 deaths) (26/12) Read OP

xhomelezz

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

Would a night time curfew from 8pm work here like NI are doing, stop house parties etc.,

Doubt it, that would require cops on the streets and strong government. Do we have that?

Leftwaffe

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

Would a night time curfew from 8pm work here like NI are doing, stop house parties etc.,

Waste of time. Unenforceable and wouldn’t even be accepted by the population.

I hate when people (not you) wonder why China etc are doing so well and then complain about things being closed here. We are living in a much different society.

niallo27

mike8634 wrote: »

250 in hospital
25 in ICU

Serious question

Would we have noticed if Covid was here last Dec 26th 2019 with those stats?

My wife Nurse in UHL thinks not

She and colleagues have seen much worse less flu seasons

What ye think?

I tend to agree, but how did it take us March 2020 to notice Covid?

How did it possibly stay in Wuhan for 4 months from Nov to March, when the UK strain came arrived here 4 days later?

Makes no sense that Covid wasnt here last December

Totally agree, only one show in town. Some posters are oblivious to the fact the Irish hospitals have been overwhelmed for years.

Jim_Hodge

niallo27 wrote: »

It's not my method, I'm just saying where 120k came from.

And even allowing for his poor maths his assertion means 1 in 6 of us have had covid so far.

octsol

Is there a cabinet meeting tuesday? and will they increase restrictions at that meeting based on nphet recommendations?

niallo27

niallo27 wrote: »

It's not my method, I'm just saying where 120k came from.

Yes, they came from nonsense assumptions, and using assumptions with no basis in fact is not maths

Stheno

octsol wrote: »

Is there a cabinet meeting tuesday? and will they increase restrictions at that meeting based on nphet recommendations?

There is a meeting on Tuesday

If I knew the answer to your second question I'd go out and do the lotto

octsol

Stheno wrote: »

There is a meeting on Tuesday

If I knew the answer to your second question I'd go out and do the lotto

😁😁😁

prunudo

Does anyone have a link to a good graphic breakdown of where we are now. I can't keep up with the various restrictions and what dates they kick in.

BorneTobyWilde

Roger_007 wrote: »

Maths is obviously not your strong point?

1200x10=12,000x10=120,000

BorneTobyWilde

We need to hope that there is 1000's upon 1000's of people who have had this since Feb and never knew, that's immunity.

And I THINK there is, has to be. Most people don't know they had it .

Stheno

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

We need to hope that there is 1000's upon 1000's of people who have had this since Feb and never knew, that's immunity.

And I THINK there is, has to be. Most people don't know they had it .

Worldwide antibody test studies do not back this up at all

prunudo

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

We need to hope that there is 1000's upon 1000's of people who have had this since Feb and never knew, that's immunity.

And I THINK there is, has to be. Most people don't know they had it .

While I think undoubtedly there will be many 1,000s who have had it unknowingly, I don't think its as many as some think.

TonyMaloney

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

We need to hope that there is 1000's upon 1000's of people who have had this since Feb and never knew, that's immunity.

And I THINK there is, has to be. Most people don't know they had it .

It's been ripping through some countries like Iran since March with absolutely no sign of herd immunity.

petes

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

We need to hope that there is 1000's upon 1000's of people who have had this since Feb and never knew, that's immunity.

And I THINK there is, has to be. Most people don't know they had it .

Why do you THINK this? Based on what?

Dr. Em

mike8634 wrote: »

250 in hospital
25 in ICU

Serious question

Would we have noticed if Covid was here last Dec 26th 2019 with those stats?

My wife Nurse in UHL thinks not

Bear in mind that although the hospitals are dealing with Covid-19 cases, other pressures on the hospitals have lessened this year. Social distancing and a decrease in travel have prevented the usual winter flu outbreak so far. Anecdotally, I don't know anyone who has had a common cold this year either. Chest infections and pneumonia cases from causes other than Covid should be down significantly. Alcohol consumption is also down overall and many festivals and party events that usually lead to a few hospital admissions were cancelled this year. Even though road traffic fatalities are up slightly on last year, the insurance profits suggest a 35% reduction in collisions or minor accidents. Preventative screenings (some of which lead to operations) were suspended earlier in the year. More people are avoiding hospitals for fear of getting Covid too.

Jim_Hodge

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

1200x10=12,000x10=120,000

Why apply a factor of 10 twice?????

It's a farcical assertion at 10x but beyond foolhardy at 100x

seamus

Herd immunity takes years to occur naturally in large and widely distributed populations. For pathogens that mutate regularly, like viruses, it basically means herd immunity never occurs. The virus mutates into something else well before then.

This is why there is no generally immunity to colds and 'flu.

It's also typically acquired immunity, which means that it fades between generations.

After about five years the Black Death appeared to have all the characteristics of herd immunity, but then 20 or 30 years later, it made another surge. Same bacteria, new population. And it continued to come in similar waves throughout Europe for the next 400 years.

Stheno

Has anyone tracked hospitalisation rates in October versus Marxh/April and gotten a % compared to cases then and now? Paul Cullen in the Irish Times today said hospitalisations and deaths were much lower in October compared to March/April

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/health-family/ireland-and-covid-19-what-we-got-right-what-we-got-wrong-1.4432980?mode=amp

And so the autumn brought another wave, and consequent lockdown. This time, though, there were just a fraction of the hospitalisations, ICU admissions and deaths seen in the first wave. Some of the most vulnerable had died; the rest were now better protected. Hospitals had got better at treating serious Covid-19 cases, so lengths of stay reduced and outcomes improved.


There was nothing inevitable about this. The chances of an ICU patient with Covid-19 dying in Ireland are half that in the UK. Recent months have seen massive increases in mortality in many European countries, but not Ireland.

And while coronavirus didn’t seem so formidable a foe in Ireland this time, it wasn’t the same in the rest of Europe. In the first surge, our performance was mid-table overall; in the second, we had the lowest incidence in the EU and one of the lowest death rates. This was some achievement.

CalamariFritti

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

Why apply a factor of 10 twice?????

It's a farcical assertion at 10x but beyond foolhardy at 100x

I wouldnt say x10 is in any way farcical. WHO themselves go with factor 10. And yes thats an estimate too but farcical?

Edit: x100 is out for obvious reasons. It would mean that the entire planet already had it.

Polar101

prunudo wrote: »

Does anyone have a link to a good graphic breakdown of where we are now. I can't keep up with the various restrictions and what dates they kick in.

Irish Times are usually pretty good with infographics (pretty far down in the article).

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/covid-19-what-new-restrictions-are-being-introduced-and-when-1.4443915

Link to the graphic, which is in the article: https://www.datawrapper.de/_/bGqBW/

Subject to change, of course.

niallo27

seamus wrote: »

Herd immunity takes years to occur naturally in large and widely distributed populations. For pathogens that mutate regularly, like viruses, it basically means herd immunity never occurs. The virus mutates into something else well before then.

This is why there is no generally immunity to colds and 'flu.

It's also typically acquired immunity, which means that it fades between generations.

After about five years the Black Death appeared to have all the characteristics of herd immunity, but then 20 or 30 years later, it made another surge. Same bacteria, new population. And it continued to come in similar waves throughout Europe for the next 400 years.

You can't compare the flu to covid, covid does not mutate in the same way which is why we need a new flu jab every year.

CalamariFritti

CalamariFritti wrote: »

I wouldnt say x10 is in any way farcical. WHO themselves go with factor 10. And yes thats an estimate too but farcical?

10x may have been reasonable in spring, however based on what we have seen since it was likely closer to 5x. Now however it’s wildly inaccurate. If we have been at 10x since august when testing was really ramped us. That’s 600,000 cases with less than 500 deaths. At the same rate over 2million would have been infected in the spring. That would be over 50% of the population. At that level case would be slowing we no restrictions and any sort of measures at all would control it completely. That’s why it is obvious to anyone who takes any sort of critical look at numbers that we are not at 10x.

niallo27

niallo27 wrote: »

You can't compare the flu to covid, covid does not mutate in the same way which is why we need a new flu jab every year.

The flu need a new vaccine every year because there are multiple strains in circulation and the dominant strains change every year, and because it mutates. Covid may not mutate in the same way or as fast as influenza, however it does mutate. How else did it cross into humans

igCorcaigh

Startling.

https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1342907679359066112?s=19

niallo27

Deleted User wrote: »

The flu need a new vaccine every year because there are multiple strains in circulation and the dominant strains change every year, and because it mutates. Covid may not mutate in the same way or as fast as influenza, however it does mutate. How else did it cross into humans

Well what I have read which may be wrong is "For most viruses, replication involves making many errors. This means that viruses like the flu mutate rapidly. This can mean that many treatments and vaccines become ineffective, and is one of the reasons why we need a new flu jab every year.

However, coronaviruses proofread their replicated genome and so they accumulate mutations at a slower rate. Mutations do occur, though, and could have many different effects on the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus and our ability to control the pandemic.

The majority of mutations will have no impact on the virus or on the disease. Occasionally a mutation will enable greater growth, transmissibility or escape from the immune system, in which case the mutated virus may spread widely throughout the population."

I'm only reading and learning like all of us, but the original point that herd immunity would never work is probably wrong from a mutation point of view, now we know its a non runner because of the pressure on hospitals and thousands getting very sick.

rooney30

niallo27 wrote: »

You can't compare the flu to covid, covid does not mutate in the same way which is why we need a new flu jab every year.

How In Gods name can you possibly say this ? . Covid is around less than a year . Come back in 10 years maybe and we might have an answer

igCorcaigh

On the possibility that a mutation might occur which may render one of the vaccines less effective, we may only find that out once a significant proportion of the population is vaccinated, as that will create the selective pressure for the mutated strain, if it exists.

niallo27

rooney30 wrote: »

How In Gods name can you possibly say this ? . Covid is around less than a year . Come back in 10 years maybe and we might have an answer

Corona viruses have been around decades.

normanoffside

Stheno wrote: »

Worldwide antibody test studies do not back this up at all

Asymptomatic cases don’t produce antibodies or ones that last. Most have T Cell immunity