Covid 19 Part XXIX-85,394 ROI(2,200 deaths) 62,723 NI (1,240 deaths) (26/12) Read OP

Golfman64

jackboy wrote: »

Yeah but the risk is probably tiny compared to gatherings with no mask wearing.

Exactly - The economy matters too and the government are trying to find a better balance this time around. 30,000 people unemployed since Christmas Eve following the enforced closure of hospitality. Another 40,000 would be unemployed if non essential retail closed. I think a much better balance has been found this time around when compared to October. We need to give it another 2+ weeks to see the effect on cases. Time to stay patient and resist the ‘knee jerk’ further restrictions...

niallo27

niallo27 wrote: »

Well what I have read which may be wrong is "For most viruses, replication involves making many errors. This means that viruses like the flu mutate rapidly. This can mean that many treatments and vaccines become ineffective, and is one of the reasons why we need a new flu jab every year.

However, coronaviruses proofread their replicated genome and so they accumulate mutations at a slower rate. Mutations do occur, though, and could have many different effects on the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus and our ability to control the pandemic.

The majority of mutations will have no impact on the virus or on the disease. Occasionally a mutation will enable greater growth, transmissibility or escape from the immune system, in which case the mutated virus may spread widely throughout the population."

I'm only reading and learning like all of us, but the original point that herd immunity would never work is probably wrong from a mutation point of view, now we know its a non runner because of the pressure on hospitals and thousands getting very sick.

Oc43 has been here since about 1890 with no sign of herd immunity

mollser

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Startling.

https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1342907679359066112?s=19

Shocking and all as that sounds, doesn't about 1 in 85 odd people die in the US every year?

niallo27

Deleted User wrote: »

Oc43 has been here since about 1890 with no sign of herd immunity

It's obviously not as contagious, or maybe we are immune to more severe affects. I don't know, very little online about it.

Lollipop95

Could the 5km rule be imposed again?

hmmm

Deleted User wrote: »

Oc43 has been here since about 1890 with no sign of herd immunity

But it's a minor nuisance, so based on what we suspect happened with this something has changed in how our immune system reacts to it.

I'd prefer to get a vaccination and some level of antibodies, and only then get Covid or a variant rather than get the novel virus. We might not know exactly what happens, but there's a reasonable chance the pre-existing immunity will prevent or moderate illness.

TonyMaloney

Golfman64 wrote: »

Exactly - The economy matters too and the government are trying to find a better balance this time around. 30,000 people unemployed since Christmas Eve following the enforced closure of hospitality. Another 40,000 would be unemployed if non essential retail closed. I think a much better balance has been found this time around when compared to October. We need to give it another 2+ weeks to see the effect on cases. Time to stay patient and resist the ‘knee jerk’ further restrictions...

We've got a growth rate of 10% per day in cases.
That means roughly 2,500 cases a day in 7 days time, and 4,900 in 14 days.

We've never messed around with restrictions or levels with numbers like that. It's a massive risk we're taking.

wadacrack

Golfman64 wrote: »

Exactly - The economy matters too and the government are trying to find a better balance this time around. 30,000 people unemployed since Christmas Eve following the enforced closure of hospitality. Another 40,000 would be unemployed if non essential retail closed. I think a much better balance has been found this time around when compared to October. We need to give it another 2+ weeks to see the effect on cases. Time to stay patient and resist the ‘knee jerk’ further restrictions...

We are going to have our hospitals over run if we don't go with a harder lockdown. The r rate wont drop below 1. 2 weeks time the situation will be far worse than now tbh.

Avoation1091

TonyMaloney wrote: »

We've got a growth rate of 10% per day in cases.
That means roughly 2,500 cases a day in 7 days time, and 4,900 in 14 days.

We've never messed around with restrictions or levels with numbers like that. It's a massive risk we're taking.

There has been L3 with additional houseban visits before another others. Im sure MM and cabinet thought this through. They wouldnt have announced these other wise. They got additional data after the last L5 and stats outside of COVID wernt good. This is a better balance to help mental health and livelihoods as well. Houseban comes into effect next Friday and that really helped before along with hospitality closure. January is usually a quiet month anyway.

CalamariFritti

Deleted User wrote: »

10x may have been reasonable in spring, however based on what we have seen since it was likely closer to 5x. Now however it’s wildly inaccurate. If we have been at 10x since august when testing was really ramped us. That’s 600,000 cases with less than 500 deaths. At the same rate over 2million would have been infected in the spring. That would be over 50% of the population. At that level case would be slowing we no restrictions and any sort of measures at all would control it completely. That’s why it is obvious to anyone who takes any sort of critical look at numbers that we are not at 10x.

I'm not following you. How could x10 mean we had 2 million in spring? We have 85,000 to date and we had 20,000 at the beginning of May.

z10 is a rough estimate but if you look at the above there is no plausibiity problem with x10.

obi604

IrishHomer wrote: »

Never thought bookies shops are essential?

Local shop today was packed.

Bizarre in my opinion

The bookies being open is an absolute joke. Essential
me h0le. Farce. The one in my local town is packed
also.

Stheno

obi604 wrote: »

The bookies being open is an absolute joke. Essential
me h0le. Farce. The one in my local town is packed
also.

All retail is allowed open at the moment

Wolf359f

Stheno wrote: »

Has anyone tracked hospitalisation rates in October versus Marxh/April and gotten a % compared to cases then and now? Paul Cullen in the Irish Times today said hospitalisations and deaths were much lower in October compared to March/April

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/health-family/ireland-and-covid-19-what-we-got-right-what-we-got-wrong-1.4432980?mode=amp

From the start up until 7th May:
22495 Cases
2954 Hospital Admissions (13.13%)
381 ICU admissions (1.69%)
1195 Deaths (5.3%)

From 8th May until 30th November:
50301 Cases
2286 Hospital Admissions (5.68%)
243 ICU admissions (0.48%)
619 Deaths (1.2%)

Obviously it's really down to the age demographic that has the most impact on the hospital admissions etc...

TonyMaloney

Avoation1091 wrote: »

There has been L3 with additional houseban visits before another others. Im sure MM and cabinet thought this through. They wouldnt have announced these other wise. They got additional data after the last L5 and stats outside of COVID wernt good. This is a better balance to help mental health and livelihoods as well. Houseban comes into effect next Friday and that really helped before along with hospitality closure. January is usually a quiet month anyway.

They can think it through all they want, but they're never going to be as good as the experts on this stuff, and they disagree with the gov.

My guess is that the experts are closer to being correct, and that we'll eventually have to go into a harsher lockdown to regain control, and the effects on mental health and the economy won't be good.

growleaves

Merry Christmas everyone.

Pcgamer

Close the schools for three months and get back to 50 a day.

Mike3549

Pcgamer wrote: »

Close the schools for three months and get back to 50 a day.

Go back to your party

Cluedo Monopoly

Lollipop95 wrote: »

Could the 5km rule be imposed again?

Did anyone take it seriously the last time?

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

Oc43 has been here since about 1890 with no sign of herd immunity

There is. Herd immunity is an important part in controlling the spread of the common cold viruses.

Strumms

Stheno wrote: »

All retail is allowed open at the moment

Yep...Nobody ‘needs’ to back a horse or a football result / scorer...

Most or a lot of retail at some point is essential....

Pcgamer

Mike3549 wrote: »

Go back to your party

Close the schools

podgeandrodge

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Startling.

https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1342907679359066112?s=19

Dunno. If it related to people with significant lifespans ahead it would be a more frightenting statistic. There are probably average stats on how many of the 1 in 1000 deaths would likely have occurred this year anyway, which would presumably bring this down a fair bit?

Jim_Hodge

Pcgamer wrote: »

Close the schools

That party's obviously really hotting up. :rolleyes:

Mike3549

Pcgamer wrote: »

Close the schools

In fairness, they are closed

TonyMaloney

Wolf359f wrote: »

From the start up until 7th May:
22495 Cases
2954 Hospital Admissions (13.13%)
381 ICU admissions (1.69%)
1195 Deaths (5.3%)

From 8th May until 30th November:
50301 Cases
2286 Hospital Admissions (5.68%)
243 ICU admissions (0.48%)
619 Deaths (1.2%)

Obviously it's really down to the age demographic that has the most impact on the hospital admissions etc...

We were doing f all testing early on.

Using your latest hospitalisation rate of 5.68%, if we get to 2,500 cases in 7 days time, that day alone will mean 278 hospital admissions.
23 ICU admissions.
59 deaths.

lukas8888

Strumms wrote: »

Yep...Nobody ‘needs’ to back a horse or a football result / scorer...

Most or a lot of retail at some point is essential....

The bookies will close when non essential retail is closed,most retail is essential, rubbish.

igCorcaigh

podgeandrodge wrote: »

Dunno. If it related to people with significant lifespans ahead it would be a more frightenting statistic. There are probably average stats on how many of the 1 in 1000 deaths would likely have occurred this year anyway, which would presumably bring this down a fair bit?

Excess deaths are probably a better way of measuring it.

ShyMets

Pcgamer wrote: »

Close the schools

Echo. Echo

Stheno

TonyMaloney wrote: »

We were doing f all testing early on.

Using your latest hospitalisation rate of 5.68%, if we get to 2,500 cases in 7 days time, that day alone will mean 278 hospital admissions.
23 ICU admissions.
59 deaths.

Think you've got all those figures wrong

5.68% of 2500 is 142

Age demographics would also need to be factored in

TonyMaloney

Stheno wrote: »

Think you've got all those figures wrong

5.68% of 2500 is 142

Age demographics would also need to be factored in

Yep. Apologies, I was using a 14 day projection of 4,900