Covid 19 Part XXIX-85,394 ROI(2,200 deaths) 62,723 NI (1,240 deaths) (26/12) Read OP

wadacrack

wadacrack wrote: »

The importance of mass testing. Very disappointing we havent scaled this up over 12,000 a day

https://twitter.com/StfnFlsch/status/1334498853526130688

A month after mass testing, Slovakia have 7 day averages 1400 cases and 24 deaths per day with only 10% more people.

If only we were like Slovakia

Seamai

[Deleted User] wrote: »

A month after mass testing, Slovakia have 7 day averages 1400 cases and 24 deaths per day with only 10% more people.

If only we were like Slovakia

I was only looking at their figures, it's difficult to see what exactly their mass testing a month ago actually achieved.

speckle

wadacrack wrote: »

The importance of mass testing. Very disappointing we havent scaled this up over 12,000 a day

https://twitter.com/StfnFlsch/status/1334498853526130688

I think they were using a rapid antigen test via michael mina idea. One of their equivalents to Nephets Holahan did an interesting interview with Ivor Cumins that was very insightful.
And yeh I know he is not a best friend of a lot of people here.

eagle eye

Deleted User wrote:

A month after mass testing, Slovakia have 7 day averages 1400 cases and 24 deaths per day with only 10% more people.

If only we were like Slovakia

Are you saying that more testing is a bad thing?

is_that_so

Deleted User wrote: »

A month after mass testing, Slovakia have 7 day averages 1400 cases and 24 deaths per day with only 10% more people.

If only we were like Slovakia

It did seem incredibly random and there was such a lot of fanfare to it. An interesting experiment I guess, but clearly not part of any plan.

speckle

They reduced their prevalence infection by 61% in one week.

seamus

253 postive swabs today out of 12,048. 2.1% positivity.

eagle eye

eagle eye wrote: »

Are you saying that more testing is a bad thing?

No, I am saying the effect of mass testing and restrictions in Slovakia has not had close to the impact as measures taken here have had.

is_that_so

speckle wrote: »

They reduced their prevalence infection by 61% in one week.

Which is great, but then what? They are where we were over a month ago.

speckle

speckle wrote: »

They reduced their prevalence infection by 61% in one week.

They also implemented restrictions 2 weeks prior to starting the study, and scaled up the restrictions in the week before the study started. I would suggest this is what had an impact

KrustyUCC

seamus wrote: »

253 postive swabs today out of 12,048. 2.1% positivity.

Not bad at all

2.1% positivity is decent

speckle

is_that_so wrote: »

Which is great, but then what? They are where we were over a month ago.

And then a reduction by 81% in the areas chosen for mass testing week 2. I was going to say that depends on if both countrys had the same infection situation at the same time when their testing started.
For example what if we had rapid testing when our numbers were rising that got us into a nationwide level 3. Or use it up in the border counties or dublin or for staff going to work in hospitals before each shift?

speckle

speckle wrote: »

And then a reduction by 81% in the areas chosen for mass testing week 2. I was going to say that depends on if both countrys had the same infection situation at the same time when their testing started.
For example what if we had rapid testing when our numbers were rising that got us into a nationwide level 3. Or use it up in the border counties or dublin or for staff going to work in hospitals before each shift?

To me it seems the study was a good measure of the effectiveness of the restrictions in an of themselves rather than an effect of the mass testing. The bulk of the cases detected in Phase 2 would already have been seeded when phase 1 was executed

ACitizenErased

Decent swabs today. Wednesday is always a bogey day for some reason it's quite strange. Almost like there's a bulk of high prevelance swabs delivered on Wednesdays or something.

is_that_so

speckle wrote: »

And then a reduction by 81% in the areas chosen for mass testing week 2. I was going to say that depends on if both countrys had the same infection situation at the same time when their testing started.
For example what if we had rapid testing when our numbers were rising that got us into a nationwide level 3. Or use it up in the border counties or dublin or for staff going to work in hospitals before each shift?

Oh I think there is scope for blitz testing, especially in indoor workspaces and schools. I just don't see the benefit of a much wider scope, that testing and good contact tracing wont take care of.

normanoffside

It seems there has been a large hospital outbreak in Kilkenny Hospital too

https://www.kilkennypeople.ie/news/home/592995/number-of-covid-patients-at-kilkenny-hospital-rises-40.html

speckle

[Deleted User] wrote: »

They also implemented restrictions 2 weeks prior to starting the study, and scaled up the restrictions in the week before the study started. I would suggest this is what had an impact

So we need to compare it with a similar country with similiar restrictions and infection numbers but no rapid testing and see what part restrictions v rapid testing add.
That said an 81% reduction week two have any restrictions anywhere got a similiar result when istigated at similiar numbers. I am not sure?

speckle

speckle wrote: »

So we need to compare it with a similar country with similiar restrictions and infection numbers but no rapid testing and see what part restrictions v rapid testing add.
That said an 81% reduction week two have any restrictions anywhere got a similiar result when istigated at similiar numbers. I am not sure?

Well given Slovakia and Ireland have similar Populations and implemented similar restrictions at almost the same time, with the exception that Slovakia kept over 14 year olds out of school, the fact that Irelands 7 day average is down 78% and Slovakia's is down only 42% from peak may suggest the impact was minimal. They had almost 2,000 cases today as well.

speckle

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Well given Slovakia and Ireland have similar Populations and implemented similar restrictions at almost the same time, with the exception that Slovakia kept over 14 year olds out of school, the fact that Irelands 7 day average is down 78% and Slovakia's is down only 42% from peak may suggest the impact was minimal. They had almost 2,000 cases today as well.

So its those pesky teenagers at home getting up to stuff
That is alot of cases though.. must delve deeper and see was the mass testing only confined to certain areas.

Edit looking further down the rabbit hole... either we have that lighter restrictions and rapid testing for sudden bursts of numbers might work or we have a seasonal potentially endemic virus that will follow a natural curve no matter the restrictions... awwh my head hurts need to wait a bit longer and more info to call it.

podgeandrodge

I see Paul Reid is calling hugging an 'extreme risk' (RTE).

Can see it being potentially risky to an extent, but a quick hug doesn't seem to be up there with spending a significant amount of time with somebody in the same place?

is_that_so

podgeandrodge wrote: »

I see Paul Reid is calling hugging an 'extreme risk' (RTE).

Can see it being potentially risky to an extent, but a quick hug doesn't seem to be up there with spending a significant amount of time with somebody in the same place?

I'd say it's the postprandial extended hugs he means where people suddenly realise how important someone they barely know, is to them.

KrustyUCC

TBF I think it's an overreaction but he was on about hugging after spending time at a restaurant or gastropub

What Username Guidelines

Italy almost touched 1,000 deaths today at 993, more than their first peak (921) but their infection rate is dropping so hopefully deaths follow the drop soon

bb1234567

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

Italy almost touched 1,000 deaths today at 993, more than their first peak (921) but their infection rate is dropping so hopefully deaths follow the drop soon

Feel really sorry about what is happening in Italy, it is the only country in Europe to match the level of excess deaths seen in first wave. Sounds cold maybe to say but as opposed to most Western countries Italy's very elderly population remain central to community and social life in their towns and cities, so the pandemic probably has had a more profound impact on the social fabric of socities in that country more so than for example Ireland where a lot of the elderly deaths have been in social homes, where residents would have much smaller social circles and influence than their peers in Italy.

muddypuppy

wadacrack wrote: »

The importance of mass testing. Very disappointing we havent scaled this up over 12,000 a day

https://twitter.com/StfnFlsch/status/1334498853526130688

Slovakia did it (~3.8m tests, ~5m people), Alto Adige did it (a province in Italy, ~360k tests out of ~520k people) and Austria is going to do it (they hope to test ~7m people out of ~9m).
All of the above done with rapid tests, not PCR.

Honestly I don't see a huge necessity to that at the moment in Ireland, but I would love to see it as a proposed solution to avoid a January lockdown.

It should also open the debate about rapid tests, which are used in most of the world right now, but Ireland still has not approved (any update on this by the way? last I heard was they're "being evaluated" a few weeks/months ago).

Funsterdelux

KrustyUCC wrote: »

TBF I think it's an overreaction but he was on about hugging after spending time at a restaurant or gastropub

Too much garlic bread?

BringBackMick

ECDC moving away from daily updates

Hopefully Ireland will follow - we need a break from the constant supply of numbers in our media..

ECDC will switch to a weekly reporting schedule for the COVID-19 situation worldwide and in the EU/EEA and the UK from December this year. All daily updates will be discontinued from then. Additional details about the implementation of this change will be communicated on this website in due course.

BringBackMick

France's 14 day rate has decreased impressively in last 7 days to stand @ 267.9

Happydays2020

Do you think many people will try to get the vaccine up North pending availability down here?

is_that_so

BringBackMick wrote: »

ECDC moving away from daily updates

Hopefully Ireland will follow - we need a break from the constant supply of numbers in our media..

I think we'll stick to it, too much noise about it otherwise. I reckon we've embraced the 7 day and 14 day trends and we no longer recoil in horror at slightly bigger daily numbers.