Covid 19 Part XXIX-85,394 ROI(2,200 deaths) 62,723 NI (1,240 deaths) (26/12) Read OP

Always_Running

CruelSummer wrote: »

Why is Tómas Ryan on Six One? He's not even a virologist, immunologist, anything related to Covid. He's a neuroscientist. We only hear from those who fearmongerer on a daily basis. Mooting Restrictions being brought back before restrictions are even lifted.

Ego driven lad that gets far too much air time. RTÉ have been ridiculously poor throughout this pandemic.

majcos

Cork2021 wrote: »

There was 24 hospitalisations on the last 24 hours. I’d wish they’d start telling us the ages. I’d assume it’s from community hospitals and care homes

I would not assume that. Numbers in each age bracket for those admitted given in 14 day epidemiology reports.

Of the 304 hospitalised in the last two weeks, 41% are under 65. In those over 65, not all are in community hospitals and nursing homes. Many Covid positive cases in community hospitals and nursing homes are cared for in those locations by GPs and nurses rather than admitted. Nursing homes and community hospitals can provide oxygen etc. Many of those over 65 admissions come from home rather than residential settings.

0-4 year 3
5-14 yrs 1
15-24 yrs 16
25-34 yrs 17
35-44 yrs 23
45-54 yrs 32
55-64 yrs 32

UrbanFret

Always_Running wrote: »

In the terms of controling the virus I think was a decent success while having schools open. From a 7 day average of 1176 cases per day to now 261. Hospital, ICU admissions and deaths thankfully didn't reach the levels of March, April and touch wood it stays that way for the months ahead.

We're doing fantastically well compared to most of Europe. Italy deaths close to March levels again, Spain, France, not far behind.Poland in a mess now as well. How those countries would like to be in our position.

Chris_5339762

ACitizenErased wrote: »

It's a major success. That's an incredible drop in 7 day average.

It is. In hindsight we locked down at the correct time - I know we all thought it was too early but our second wave has been fraction of what the rest of Europe has had.

shinzon

Lollipop95 wrote: »

Is another lockdown in January really likely? If so, how long would it be predicted to last?

There doesnt have to be a lockdown but unfortunately there will most likely be as people lose the run of themselves over Christmas and ignore all the advice, once you open up cases go up and if it goes up to what it was before only thing will bring it down is a lockdown

Shin

Chris_5339762

Chris_5339762 wrote: »

It is. In hindsight we locked down at the correct time - I know we all thought it was too early but our second wave has been fraction of what the rest of Europe has had.

I don't know how some of Europe have let things deteriorate so much. Croatia a country of 4 million people are at 4,000 cases a day and 50+ daily deaths. No sign of it easing yet either.

is_that_so

Chris_5339762 wrote: »

It is. In hindsight we locked down at the correct time - I know we all thought it was too early but our second wave has been fraction of what the rest of Europe has had.

It was too soon for Level 5, NPHET belatedly acknowledged the effect of Level 3, but we never at any point got back to the normal the rest of Europe did in the summer.

spookwoman

HUB data partially updated.
GOV.IE still has yesterdays numbers for todays report on hospitals cases ages etc. County at the end, they do have the correct increase just haven't bothered to add it onto to the total :rolleyes:

CIARAN_BOYLE

Lollipop95 wrote: »

Is another lockdown in January really likely? If so, how long would it be predicted to last?

Depends on 2 things.

1. Vaccine
Im not expecting massive numbers vaccinated but if 100,000 get their vaccines by the middle of January (second dose) it will mean a massive relief for the hospitals and massively reduce death numbers. If so we can probably get away with a somewhat shorter lockdown. We might be getting 1,000 cases a day but if the nursing homes are safe we can keep the deaths lower.

2. Behavior
I've come around to the view that behaviour is far more important than restrictions. Case numbers will go up over the next few weeks. Especially at Christmas. The amount of the rise will depend on behaviour. If its limited lockdown 3 can be limited.

blade1

ACitizenErased wrote: »

It's a major success.

So job well done?

c.p.w.g.w

ShooterSF wrote: »

I'm all for trying to keep this thing under control but from what I can understand of your post your argument comes across at lot like "I'm going to ignore the guidelines that inconvenience me so the government should impose stricter ones that don't inconvenience me (as I'm going to avoid hospitality either ways)"

My point was more that, the majority of folks will ignore the household rules, so keeping hospitality closed would certainly help reduce the potential impact of the massive amount of household mixing...

Also Nephet had recommended keeping hospitality closed while allowing larger household gatherings over Xmas

I have adhered to all the current and historical guidelines, and I'll be avoiding hospitality environments to reduce the impact of mixing of households at Xmas.. I have kept my contacts to a bear minimum for a number of months at this stage...

Only leave the house for work, and once a week for grocery shopping

spookwoman

blade1 wrote: »

So job well done?

7 day avg of 1176 was on the 21/10/2020.

D.Q

wadacrack wrote: »

27 in Wicklow, must be linked to a workplace/school or some gathering

Bet you it's Bray. It's always Bray.

What Username Guidelines

is_that_so wrote: »

It was too soon for Level 5, NPHET belatedly acknowledged the effect of Level 3, but we never at any point got back to the normal the rest of Europe did in the summer.

This is true, but we did manage to keep the economy moving. Albeit at a lower level, but certainly not to the point that some alluded to, i.e. not damaged enough to be unable to fund the health service.

Russman

fly_agaric wrote: »

I was presuming there must be a breaking point somewhere (even for the whole Eurozone / ECB) but as said I really don't have any idea where that is. Maybe it would take years of it.

The European governments go into debt to pay people (or businesses - which comprise people!) to do nothing/very little.
It is the opposite of normal government spending as the government wants them to stop doing what they usually do to control spread of the virus.

There is extra expenditure by governments on the health services, but alot of that will flow out to US/Asia to pay for PPE, medical equipment etc. The ECB buys that govt. debt and can print Euros to do that.

Am I understanding this correctly in a rough/inexact way (as a layman speaking)? It sort of bends my noodle to be honest but I can't see how it can continue "indefinitely".

Ok maybe indefinitely is overstating it. I’m not an economist either but if all the EU countries are in it together I can certainly see COVID related finance being ringfenced in some way. A bit like mutually assure destruction, the Euro countries won’t let their currency fail for a virus, they didn’t during an actual financial collapse 10 years ago. When it’s in everyone’s interest to come up with a solution that’s what will happen I think.

Stheno

c.p.w.g.w wrote: »

My point was more that, the majority of folks will ignore the household rules, so keeping hospitality closed would certainly help reduce the potential impact of the massive amount of household mixing...

Also Nephet had recommended keeping hospitality closed while allowing larger household gatherings over Xmas

I have adhered to all the current and historical guidelines, and I'll be avoiding hospitality environments to reduce the impact of mixing of households at Xmas.. I have kept my contacts to a bear minimum for a number of months at this stage...

Only leave the house for work, and once a week for grocery shopping

You are only looking at your circumstances though

There are plenty of people who will not be mixing with other households in their houses, but who might like to go for a meal or some drinks with their housematrs

Myself and my Oh will have no on visiting our house and nor will we be visiting others (ohs daughter is staying home as she is caring for a vulnerable person, I am not visiting my parents as I've seven other siblings who will all visit both my parents and each other, so I think that's too much of a risk)

I would however like to get out during the day for coffee with the Oh to get a break from work, to go for a meal or two with him, and to meet his son for dinner

So different strokes for different folks

You will get those in the middle who will both go out socially and have gatherings at home

Chicke

High numbers today as we are easing restrictions. Dont see how a big increase in numbers can be avoided in the coming weeks.

Stheno

Chicke wrote: »

High numbers today as we are easing restrictions. Dont see how a big increase in numbers can be avoided in the coming weeks.

It takes 2-3 weeks to see the effects of increasing or decreasing restrictions

Why do people STILL not understand this?

UrbanFret

Chicke wrote: »

High numbers today as we are easing restrictions. Dont see how a big increase in numbers can be avoided in the coming weeks.

Wow! Think you should have stayed in the cupboard.

What Username Guidelines

Stheno wrote: »

It takes 2-3 weeks to see the effects of increasing or decreasing restrictions

Why do people STILL not understand this?

Think they mean we're starting from a comparatively high level, so when we do see the increase in two to three weeks it may be sharper.

Stheno

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

Think they mean we're starting from a comparatively high level, so when we do see the increase in two to three weeks it may be sharper.

I think its expected that the effects of the past two.wweks will influence cases staying as is or lowering further for another too weeks though?

What Username Guidelines

Stheno wrote: »

I think its expected that the effects of the past two.wweks will influence cases staying as is or lowering further for another too weeks though?

True, the reduction has been slowing down a little, but we've seen a 1.2% reduction in 7-day positivity rate (3.9% -> 2.7%) in the last 3 weeks, albeit interrupted by a couple of days growth in the middle, so it would be nice to see it continue that trend and see us at least under 2% around the 18-20 Dec. Hard to predict what happens beyond that, but it is likely to be growth with the re-introduction of house visits.

Spanish Eyes

Every cripple has his own way of walking, and I say that as someone with a relative with Cerebral Palsy. We do what we can when we can.

Not everyone is a hermit, not everyone is a mad jollier dying for the pubs to open, not everyone WANTS to be free and easy and break all the rules just because...

Those with vulnerable family have to be cautious, it is what it is and is a responsible, if bloody boring way to do things for the moment for a lot of people.

But I hope everyone has a good Christmas. Plan it out and enjoy it best you can, it was never going to be "normal" now was it?

Deeper Blue

Chicke wrote: »

High numbers today as we are easing restrictions. Dont see how a big increase in numbers can be avoided in the coming weeks.

1. The numbers today weren't "high"
2. Restrictions haven't been eased yet
3. Any potential increase in cases wouldn't happen for a couple of weeks after the lifting of restrictions

Have people been living under a rock since March or what?

ACitizenErased

El Sueño wrote: »

1. The numbers today weren't "high"
2. Restrictions haven't been eased yet
3. Any potential increase in cases wouldn't happen for a couple of weeks after the lifting of restrictions

Have people been living under a rock since March or what?

It's called ignorance, pure and simple

Arghus

Maybe they don't live their lives on the thread like the rest of us and aren't au fait with every facet of epidemiology.

ElJeffe

Chicke wrote: »

High numbers today as we are easing restrictions. Dont see how a big increase in numbers can be avoided in the coming weeks.

We will see a massive increase after mid January. Going to be grim.

Very high disappointing numbers yet again. Had hoped for well below 100 by this stage.

Van.Bosch

Stheno wrote: »

It takes 2-3 weeks to see the effects of increasing or decreasing restrictions

Why do people STILL not understand this?

Because they don’t want to

wadacrack

Asia finding containment challenging now in the winter

https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1333160577552748555

bb1234567

wadacrack wrote: »

Asia finding containment challenging now in the winter

https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1333160577552748555

Flare ups in SK, Japan etc get so much coverage considering the scale. There's literally about a dozen people dying in both countries combined at most daily. And they're big countries. It is a fraction of anything the West has seen and I seriously doubt it will ever ever get to the level it has been allowed to here. There's more people dying daily in Europe's tiniest countries like Slovenia than South Korea has seen in the last month

ElJeffe

bb1234567 wrote: »

Flare ups in SK, Japan etc get so much coverage considering the scale. There's literally about a dozen people dying in both countries combined at most daily. And they're big countries. It is a fraction of anything the West has seen and I seriously doubt it will ever ever get to the level it has been allowed to here. There's more people dying daily in Europe's tiniest countries like Slovenia than South Korea has seen in the last month

You are of course correct. Asian people are very compliant with rules and regulations. They also have a great sense of social solidarity unlike us here in the west.

fly_agaric

bb1234567 wrote: »

Flare ups in SK, Japan etc get so much coverage considering the scale. There's literally about a dozen people dying in both countries combined at most daily. And they're big countries. It is a fraction of anything the West has seen and I seriously doubt it will ever ever get to the level it has been allowed to here. There's more people dying daily in Europe's tiniest countries like Slovenia than South Korea has seen in the last month

We'd like to have their problems vs being a cautionary tale (never nice ):

“Please don’t underestimate coronavirus,” Dr. Toshio Nakagawa, president of the Japan Medical Association, told reporters on Wednesday in Tokyo. “We cannot let Japan become like the U.S. or Europe.”

Stheno

Phillip Nolan tweeting appear to contradict the NPHET advice

https://twitter.com/President_MU/status/1333142563885297664?s=19

majcos

HSE operations report 29/11

As of 8pm, Covid cases hospitalised 257 (increase from 251)

Letterkenny 43
Tallaght 32
James 29
Vincent’s 24
Beaumont 21
Mater 20

ICU confirmed cases 30 - decrease from 31
Ventilated 17 - unchanged
1 death in ICU last 24 hours.

Deeper Blue

Arghus wrote: »

Maybe they don't live their lives on the thread like the rest of us and aren't au fait with every facet of epidemiology.

Touche, that reminds me I really need to spend less time on here

Arghus

El Sueño wrote: »

Touche, that reminds me I really need to spend less time on here

The odd civilian wanders onto the thread from time to time, who isn't automatically familiar with weaponised Covid chat and being bang up to date every single development in the story - and I realise that we're the freaks.

Polar101

Stheno wrote: »

Phillip Nolan tweeting appear to contradict the NPHET advice

(Apologies if I missed the point)

They might not like it, but they do know what the government decided with regards to lifting restrictions, so adjusting the advice accordingly makes sense.

caveat emptor

Arghus wrote: »

The odd civilian wanders onto the thread from time to time, who isn't automatically familiar with weaponised Covid chat and being bang up to date every single development in the story - and I realise that we're the freaks.

Speak for yourself there mount Arghus. :pac:

I agree everything is weaponised here.

The dog days are nearly over..........

spookwoman

Bit of humor, probably better for the conspiracy thread

https://twitter.com/forest_fr1ends/status/1333135835181568004?s=20

branie2

Thanks for the new one

Stheno

Polar101 wrote: »

(Apologies if I missed the point)

They might not like it, but they do know what the government decided with regards to lifting restrictions, so adjusting the advice accordingly makes sense.

Its the contradictory nature of someone on NPHET tweeting such a message

It suggests discord in NPHET to an interested observer

bb1234567

Interesting analysis from CSO-
They have determined COVID to be an underlying cause of death in 1462 deaths of the 1915 notified by the Department of Health(at the end of October).
https://www.thejournal.ie/cso-underlying-cause-death-5276913-Nov2020/

COVID-19 HAS BEEN listed as the fourth most common underlying cause for registered deaths in Ireland in the first 10 months of this year.

The most common underlying causes of death cited were cancer (7,269 deaths), diseases of the circulatory system/heart (5,886) and diseases of the respiratory system/lungs (2,390).

Covid-19 accounted for 1,462 of the registered deaths, or 6.5%.

Additionally Ireland's total deaths look like they will be significantly lower in 2020 than 2019.
Total deaths 2020 are 22400.
2019 saw 31,134 deaths.
Which was an average of 2594 deaths per month.
2020 has seen an average of 2240 deaths per month so far. To even be the same level of deaths as 2019 we would need to see 4500 deaths each in Novembr and December.


So I think a reasonable conclusion is ,lockdowns clearly don't cause deaths in any significant numbers at least over a 9 month time span anyway, in fact lockdowns appear to cause an extremely large drop in overall mortality.

And COVID deaths clearly don't have much long term impact on national mortality becauseof the age of the victims, as has been theorised.

caveat emptor

Polar101 wrote: »

(Apologies if I missed the point)

They might not like it, but they do know what the government decided with regards to lifting restrictions, so adjusting the advice accordingly makes sense.

I can't speak for Philip (we are on first name terms now :pac:) but I guess it's the same for anyone. Why worry or get upset about things you can't control?

At a certain point you have to let nature take it's course. By that I mean you can't convince people if they don't want to be convinced of a risk.

Also I don't judge those who wish to refuse restrictions for the simple reason that it'll probably cause them more harm than it'll cause me. (however small)

We are nearly there anyway. No point fretting.

bb1234567

I know at the beginning it scared people that admissons for many different diseases to hospitals had reduced, theory was people were afraid to attend hospitals because of COVID, or had treatment deferred..but luckily, seems like, for whatever reason, these people simply did not die compared to normal years.And sick people did not die as expected and this trend occurred in significantly large numbers.
Can anyone explain this?
Deaths from all causes in Ireland this year have reduced massively compared to previous years.

2018 was a pretty normal mortality years for Ireland.
Cancer deaths 2018
9198
Average of 767 p/m

Cardiovascular deaths 2019
8938
Average of 744 p/m
https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-vsys/vitalstatisticsyearlysummary2018/


Cancer deaths 2020
7269
Average of 726 p/m
Projected total by January - 8723
Cardiovascular deaths 2020
5886
Average of 588 p/m
Projected total - 7062

Projected total of 475 'missing' cancer deaths compared to 2018
1876 'missing' cardiovascular deaths

However, respiratory diseases buck the trend. They are way up in 2020.
2018 saw 1743 of these deaths , while 2020 has already seen 2390 lung disease related deaths.
145 p/m in 2018 VS 239 p/ in 2020.
A 75% increase in pneumonia and other lung related diseases unrelated to COVID so far in 2020, very odd indeed.

I know people lived a lot more healthily during lockdown, less stressed, more exercise, better diet, less work, more family time, a lot more time outdoors during spring and summer than usual, no pubs , no commute etc..but how could those lifestyle changes affects cancer or heart disease deaths so massively and so rapidly??

John O.Groats

spookwoman wrote: »

Bit of humor, probably better for the conspiracy thread

https://twitter.com/forest_fr1ends/status/1333135835181568004?s=20

Let`s hope that the tinfoil hat wearers in this forum don`t see this. They will take it as fact.:rolleyes:

didyoufart?

Cases in Kilkenny linked back to a primary school.

One specific case in my locality the parent got infected by the child and passed it onto 9 work colleagues.

Mass tested the school now as well. No wonder the numbers are so high when there covering up the school data like theirs no tomorrow.

Thats me

bb1234567 wrote: »

I know people lived a lot more healthily during lockdown, less stressed, more exercise, better diet, less work, more family time, a lot more time outdoors during spring and summer than usual, no pubs , no commute etc..but how could those lifestyle changes affects cancer or heart disease deaths so massively and so rapidly??

This may be not a lifestyle change, just some rough ideas:

1. On cso.ie they telling in the information tab: "All data up to 2018 is final. Data for subsequent year/s is provisional" - so may be this information comes with delays and 2020 numbers will be increased much later
2. Somebody with cancer or heart disease have died from covid instead
3. Somebody with cancer or heart disease have not died from their main disease because thanks to isolation they had lesser chances of any other infection which would make their conditions worse
4. There may be some kinds of treatments of these diseases with less than 100% success rate. Not done treatment didn't cause death this year but may be warrant of delayed growth of deaths over subsequent years
5. OK, this one is lifestyle related. Some heart diseases can be not fatal if help provided in time, when many people changed to home because WFH or lost jobs, chances are higher that somebody would recognise the problem with their family member and call emergency before it is too late.

Thats me

didyoufart? wrote: »

Mass tested the school now as well. No wonder the numbers are so high when there covering up the school data like theirs no tomorrow.

HSE seem started mass-testing schools and publishing data: https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/covid-19-schools-mass-testing-report.html

utyh2ikcq9z76b

bb1234567 wrote: »

I know at the beginning it scared people that admissons for many different diseases to hospitals had reduced, theory was people were afraid to attend hospitals because of COVID, or had treatment deferred..but luckily, seems like, for whatever reason, these people simply did not die compared to normal years.And sick people did not die as expected and this trend occurred in significantly large numbers.
Can anyone explain this?
Deaths from all causes in Ireland this year have reduced massively compared to previous years.

2018 was a pretty normal mortality years for Ireland.
Cancer deaths 2018
9198
Average of 767 p/m

Cardiovascular deaths 2019
8938
Average of 744 p/m
https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-vsys/vitalstatisticsyearlysummary2018/


Cancer deaths 2020
7269
Average of 726 p/m
Projected total by January - 8723
Cardiovascular deaths 2020
5886
Average of 588 p/m
Projected total - 7062

Projected total of 475 'missing' cancer deaths compared to 2018
1876 'missing' cardiovascular deaths

However, respiratory diseases buck the trend. They are way up in 2020.
2018 saw 1743 of these deaths , while 2020 has already seen 2390 lung disease related deaths.
145 p/m in 2018 VS 239 p/ in 2020.
A 75% increase in pneumonia and other lung related diseases unrelated to COVID so far in 2020, very odd indeed.

I know people lived a lot more healthily during lockdown, less stressed, more exercise, better diet, less work, more family time, a lot more time outdoors during spring and summer than usual, no pubs , no commute etc..but how could those lifestyle changes affects cancer or heart disease deaths so massively and so rapidly??

Health care is a leading cause of death and injury worldwide.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK225187/

didyoufart?

Thats me wrote: »

HSE seem started mass-testing schools and publishing data: https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/covid-19-schools-mass-testing-report.html

Thanks for that. Very interesting.

Don't think we will ever get back down to 50 a day with the schools open.

Obviously the children are definitely passing onto parents and thier infecting work colleagues etc. Still don't get how people think schools are not an issue.