Ireland Team Talk XII: Farrell's First Fifteen

Interested Observer

Was just about to post that. Which poster was it that went through one of his recent games action-by-action and concluded he wasn't very good? That was pretty funny. Pretty sure it was a Munster supporter trying to talk him down.

A lot of it really passes the eye test as well. Beirne for example is the weakest carrier of the four which is fairly obvious but wins the most turnovers by miles and arrives at a lot of defensive rucks, also pretty obvious.

Just to outline what categories McCarthy is leading:

• Most carries
• Most metres
• Most dominant carries
• Highest % gainline success
• Most defenders beaten (by a factor of 5)
• Most offloads
• Most dominant tackles
• Most defensive ruck arrivals
• Fewest turnovers conceded

And the one negative category he also leads

• Most penalties conceded

I still will be surprised if he starts though tbh, Farrell is a continuity type of coach.

ulsteru20s

The one thing about McCarthy’s stats is that he gets to a ton of rucks and isn’t super effective. But as a carrier, he seems to be the choice.

You could make an argument for picking any one of Ryan, McCarthy and Henderson from those numbers i feel. Play one alongside beirne, one on the bench?

Dubinusa

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121691421#Comment_121691421

I wouldn't think Beirne is locked on this week. He was very poor v Saints. Didn't have any real dominant impact.

ulsteru20s

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121691468#Comment_121691468

I see what you mean, but i was just going off the chart. Obviously there would be more to it than that.

It seems like he is the most unique of the 4 though which is either good or bad. His turnover numbers especially.

redmca2

Henshaw was on TV3 news conference from the Ireland camp this evening.

Does that imply he'll be playing? Ringrose on the wing?

jacothelad

When are the teams announced? Wednesday?

Pudsy33

Yeah, Wednesday for a Friday game

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121691394#Comment_121691394

I still will be surprised if he starts though tbh, Farrell is a continuity type of coach.

Farrell was a continuity type of coach in the last year before the World Cup. He absolutely was not prior to that.

nerd69

Of coarse his carrying looks better than the others hes freed up to do just that whereas the others arent and its not theorgsme anyway. Mccarthys ruck work is poor going off of that. Hes exactly what you dont want against france in particular

nerd69

I read those starts as you start ryan and baird and bring henderson off the bench particularly against france

Yeah_Right

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121685683#Comment_121685683

Yeah Smith is heavier than Casey but he definitely bulked up over the years. When he made his debut in 2012, against Ireland, he was smaller. I remember discussions with NZ fans about whether he was too small. One of my mates who was from Palmerston North and had seen a lot of Smith as a youngster, defended his size and swore it wouldn't be an issue. Turns out he was right.

The point I'm trying make is I think Casey will fine at international rugby despite his size. Sure he won't be able to do some of the stuff that halfbacks like Murray, Mike Phillips, Justin Marshall or Joost van der Westhuizen could do but theres other things he does so much better than them.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121691394#Comment_121691394

MOD: This is just unnecessary sniping. You can make your point without referring to provincialism. Everyone is allowed their opinion and there will be short shrift given to people who bring up provincial origins of posters in the Ireland thread as we get into 6N season.

Beyond anything else "you would say that, you're a Munster fan", or "Leinster fan just trying to put him down" is a poor argument.

theVersatile

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121691394#Comment_121691394

I went through one game (La Rochelle) and concluded that some of the reaction to it was hyperbolic. It was actually considered by most people to be quite a balanced take.

Interestingly, the fact he has the lowest ruck effectiveness aligns with my post, where he had a number of "neutral" ruck contributions but very few positive ones.

The penalties issue is more well known of course, it didn't take an analyst to figure that one out.

Glad the post is sticking around in memory though and continuing to offer a platform for discussion!

P.S. I also said in a latter post that McCarthy is a future Lion, so your line about "a Munster fan trying to talk him down" is way off mark.

AdamD

Most line outs won, and we recently had a poster claim he wasn't a viable jumper.

Neil3030

For me, McCarthy is very close to a start (Thornley even reporting that he's in line to do so).

I only really see two options:

1. Straight swap for Ryan
2. Beirne to 6 (alongside POM and Doris), McCarthy and Ryan in the second row.

As per the data posted above, option 1 likely concedes 90+% success to the opponent's lineout (throw to where Beirne isn't), but you then get McCarthy's disruptiveness in any ensuing maul. Likely pushes France more toward strike plays which I think we can control. The major downside (again, as per those stats) would be the loss of Ryan in attacking rucks. So it might depend a lot on how the coaches want the team to play under the new 10, how much we want to build phases, etc.

Option 2, I fear leaves the backrow a bit slow, with the likes of Penaud capable of exploiting any tiny gap or crease. All of a sudden you don't have vdF's speed and workrate to shore things up if France do go to strike plays on first phase. I think this has more downside.

So for me, if McCarthy does start, I'd be slightly leaning toward the straight swap for Ryan, but it's a super close call.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121692206#Comment_121692206

Zero defensive lineouts mind you. I'm sure this is just a case of Ryan being better at it though rather than him being incapable of it. His job is to stay down and make a mess of the ball/maul.

His ruck work is also nowhere near on the same level as Ryan.

It is a genuinely incredibly difficult choice with no clear right answer to me.

AdamD

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121692328#Comment_121692328

Surely in option 1 you have POM as an option on opposition ball too

nerd69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121692370#Comment_121692370

Given the state of iur lineout id say he should be option 1 on defence or offensive lineouts

Neil3030

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121692370#Comment_121692370

True. Tips the scales a bit more toward that option so.

ulsteru20s

Is everyone ignoring that he's the worst when he gets to a ruck? That's kind of important for locks in our system.

Those numbers seem to be presented as some 'mccarthy is obviously the guy' and he is really inefficient in important areas.

I'd also be very wary of throwing away Beirne's ability to generate turnovers.

If McCarthy does play, i'd load him up with carries though.

Dubinusa

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121692328#Comment_121692328

Ryan will start. McCarthy may bench.

ulsteru20s

One more thing, how can we get these stats routinely?

I would love to see these stats for a ton of other locks. Like Niall Murray would be interesting. I want to know who is good at random stuff. Or, how good is coombes when you isolate down to his lock minutes? Sheridan as well.

nerd69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121692458#Comment_121692458

Coombes essentially blows everyone in the league away from a ruck perspective regardless of position. He seemrd to carry more in the last game possibly having jager to share the load. Edogbo would be the more interesting i think though his minutes are going to be limited even more than the already small sample size

nerd69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121692436#Comment_121692436

Essentially of you start mccarthy you lose someone else as a carry threat. Probably doris

ulsteru20s

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121692475#Comment_121692475

Is that something you have numbers for or is it eye test?

AdamD

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121692479#Comment_121692479

No you don't. You gain more effective carriers. If anything it lowers the chance of Doris getting targetted in attack.

nerd69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121692515#Comment_121692515

Its something i had numbers for a few weeks back but im not willing to go find it sorry. They where overall as opposed to per game or per min so slightly skewed as coombes plays a lot of mins but as an example attacking rucks hit for him was 164 and second in the league was about 62. Essentially his entire job this season has been to hit every ruck in sight

nerd69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121692552#Comment_121692552

You need someone to hit and defend rucks if you dont have that you dont retain ball. Ryan does a massive amount of that for us. Porter does also but i think it contributes to his scrum issues its just a huge workload for a prop thet also plays near 80 often

ulsteru20s

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121692559#Comment_121692559

How tall is Coombes in actuality? Not his listed height.

Him as a full time lock would solve some medium term roster construction problems for Munster.

nerd69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121692566#Comment_121692566

Not sure. I dont really trust listed heights either hes fine there for munster but id think hes short for ireland particularly if hes matched with likely a similar sized beirne