Ireland Team Talk XII: Farrell's First Fifteen

Clo-Clo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122276591#Comment_122276591

Cooney was in a lot of squad with Farrell before Joe left and afterwards when Farrell was head coach, you have to expect he is not able to provide what Farrell wants. He was capped and given game time as well

Clo-Clo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122276318#Comment_122276318

Furlong has been playing better for the last few months than he has in a long time

pickarooney

If you were to name your Ireland XV in order of importance (i.e. start with 'first name on the teamsheet') how would it look?

01. Jamison Gibson-Park

02. Andrew Porter

03. Tadhg Beirne

04. Hugo Keenan

05. Jack Crowley

06. Tadhg Furlong

07. James Lowe

08. Dan Sheehan

09. Caelan Doris

10. Bundee Aki

11. Mack Hansen

12. Josh van der Flier

13. Garry Ringrose

14. Ryan Baird

15. Joe McCarthy

The last three are 50/50 calls.

paul71

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122277820#Comment_122277820

There are 6 viable centres and a few more sticking their hands up. We also appear to have lost another to France.

The established first choice wingers are Hansen and Lowe, we have 5 or 6 sticking their hands up too.

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122277886#Comment_122277886

Us mods love it when people ask questions like this. 😫

phog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122277886#Comment_122277886

I'd have Aki & Hansen above Lowe in order of importance.

pickarooney

Based on the last year, probably, yeah. The areas where we have several good players ended up lowest down as their replacements aren't far off them and we don't have a great selection of left wingers hence Lowe's high position as a back 3 player. I'd have Nash as our third best winger both sides combined, which pulled Hansen down a bit.

Former Former Former

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122277820#Comment_122277820

Well, we named 35 players plus Conan, JGP, Hansen, Henderson, and Keenan would definitely have been named if available and probably Ahern too.

Have we ever had more than 40 players seriously in the mix?

AdamD

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122278056#Comment_122278056

My point wasn't necessarily that we're lacking depth, it's just that outside of the back row we don't have many players smashing the door down to earn a starting position. Front row, half back and back three in particular, not much to argue about !

Shehal

I think alot of people approach Ireland matches like its back in the early 2000s when we had no depth at all and were reliant on certain players being fit.

Those days are gone and we dont rely on players "X", "Y" or "Z" being fit because we are a world class team which is why we have been top 2 in the world for the last 2 years and been one of the top forces of world rugby in that time.

We have important players of course we aren't reliant on any of them. We saw with Sexton once he retired, Crowley stepped in seamlessly and Ireland were still as good as ever and the same will happen with JGP & Keenan's replacement…and then the media will move onto the next players to put on a pedestal and claim "Ireland are reliant on". The British media especially will push this as you can tell they just hate them and France being in Ireland's shadow as they desperately want themselves and France to be the dominant forces in NH rugby, sadly for them that will never happen as long as Ireland exists!

Clo-Clo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122278110#Comment_122278110

Herring is certainly going after the hooker spot and would start in most of the top 10 international teams in the World…..he is a great player just some better ones at the moment in front of him

ionadnapokot

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122270002#Comment_122270002

Purely for his pace. v Benetton he looked like lightning again. Injured his hamstring but I hadn't realised he's been training with 7s since.

Anyway it was a very long shot. Stockdale's left foot is getting him in the door. I would taken Shane Daly instead.

Dubinusa

I'd have taken Loughman. I think the more exposure he gets, the better he'll be.

thePigeon_

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122278358#Comment_122278358

Certainly hope you're right about JGP's replacement. I'm far less optimistic but ready to be proven wrong!

typhoony

Just realised Stockdale was included, I think he had maybe 2 good games all season for Ulster. Personally I would not have him anywhere near the team even taking into considerations injuries to other players.

Delighted for Izzy, is he backrow or 2nd row. Will probably end up a utility forward so can see him being involved for Ireland. Still has to improve his overall game but he's taken a big step this year

thehairygrape

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122278771#Comment_122278771

correct me if I’m wrong but I think Stockdale is left footed. Having a left footed kicking option would bring some balance I presume. Lowe can’t play every time.

The stats thing has been trotted out a lot here on Coombes over the past day or so, but they're really just pure volume stats.

I had a look comparing the 23/24 season for all three of Gavin Coombes, Jack Conan and Caelan Doris.

Coombes played in 25 games, 1,700 minutes, starting 20 of those 25. While his carry and tackle volume are huge (293 carries and 287 made tackles), once again when you look at the actual impact of those carries, you see he carries for 2m per carry on average.

Jack Conan didn't play a lot of minutes this season - 829 mins for both Leinster and Ireland, but he averages 3.5m per carry, so while he played 871 minutes less than Coombes (almost 11 full games less), he only carried for 119 less metres. His tackle volume isn't as high as Coombes, but his completed tackle percentages are slightly higher (both are very good at 92% and 91%).

But the comparison to Caelan Doris is the one that really shows up the disparity - Doris played in an extra 3 games and played 298 minutes more than Coombes. He has 10 more carries than Coombes over that period (303 v 293), made 25 tackles more, and had more clean breaks (5 v 2), defenders beaten (59 v 25) and offloads (18 v 12). His tackle completion stats are 90% (v Coombes at 91%). He had 10 carries more than Coombes, but carried for 438m more than him - his average is 3.4 metres per carry versus Coombes' 2.0m.

So - statistically, he outperformed him on every single metric (only negative is his penalty count is almost twice as high as Coombes, and is pretty high overall at 25 on the season).

However - when you step into the actual games, it's even more telling. Of Coombes' 25 games played, he carried over his 2.0m per carry season average on 12 occasions (Dragons, Ulster x2, Glasgow x2, Connacht, Scarlets, Zebre, Ospreys, Toulon, Northampton (knock out), Bulls, Lions).

His best days - days where his carry average was higher than Jack Conan's or Caelan Doris' level happened only 4 times - Toulon away (he was excellent that day), Bulls away, Lions away and Glasgow. In all three of the latter games however he started on the bench and had a very low volume of carries (6, 3 and 1 respectively).

Caelan Doris only had 4 games all year where his per carry average for the game was below Coombe's season mark (2.0m per carry).

Doris also played a considerably more difficult slate of fixtures than Coombes - his stats include games against New Zealand, South Africa, La Rochelle x2, Toulouse etc.

I know these are relatively simplistic stats (would love to have access to better data) - but they do serve to show that the people claiming Coombes' stats are incredible are missing the mark.

Doris is by any metric a more effective carrier and is just as efficient a tackler off an even larger sample size. He offloads more, passes more and beats more than twice as many defenders off a really similar carry count.

I know some of Coombes' numbers are coloured by the period he played in the row (his stats were particularly poor for the games against Exeter, Leinster (in Thomond) and Connacht on NYD), but there were plenty of games where he was definitely exclusively at 8 where his numbers are incredibly underwhelming too.

nerd69

Coombes also carrys inside in traffic a lot as munster rely on him as a heavy carrier where doris and in particular conan carry in outside channels more.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122279043#Comment_122279043

Doris absolutely doesn't carry in outside channels, I genuinely struggle to even think of a handful of examples of when he does that. He typically carries right in the middle of the pitch and typically off set pieces etc.

I know average carry stats are prone to scrutiny - i.e. one big carry could skew the sample in a whole game, but we're talking about guys here who play the same position and we're talking over a full season.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122278984#Comment_122278984

They're good stats though to be fair no one is suggesting Coombes should be ahead of Doris. It backs up what I'd think on yhe eye test though. He just lacks a bit of explosiveness

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122279234#Comment_122279234

Yeah, I get that, but I think what they show are even stylistically he's such a different type of player to Doris, and Doris is clearly the style of #8 that they want and the skillset they value.

snotboogie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122279079#Comment_122279079

Coombes played a significant amount of time at lock and is the go to ball carrier 2 metres from the line for Munster which will skew his metres per carry down significantly. Coombes has the most successful carries of any URC player this season with 115. He is one of only two players to get over the century.

If we are to use your metrics from above, Hodnett would be statistically the best back row in the country at 3.7 metres per carry, 91% tackle success rate, 7 clean breaks and a defender beaten every 3.5 carries.

pickarooney

You can't carry more than 2m when you're 1m from the line.

aloooof

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122279043#Comment_122279043

I'd also suggest that, off our own lineout, Coombes is invariably in the maul. Whereas Doris occasionally lines up in midfield as a carrier off first phase.

It's getting the best out of their respective talents, but it's going to have some impact on raw carrying stats.

Similarly, the number of times they carry within 5m. I'd wager Coombes carries much more frequently in those positions than Doris.

It's going to have some divergent impact on the stats.

The final point is, I don't think anyone is arguing he should be ahead of Doris.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122279303#Comment_122279303

Well, as it happens, I do think Hodnett is a very good player, and is a guy who ought to feel more aggrieved than Gavin Coombes at his continued exclusion. Unlike Coombes, who has had multiple opportunities, I don't think Hodnett has had anything except the EI tour.

I do think Munster use him quite differently to how Ireland use the 7 shirt - Hodnett actually does carry a lot in the wider channels, but I would have liked to see him in the squad here.

ulsteru20s

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122277499#Comment_122277499

This is entirely true but also a problem. Imo it skews too much that way. The barrier to entry is too high.

ulsteru20s

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122277886#Comment_122277886

1 Porter

2 Keenan

3 Beirne

4 Furlong

5 JGP

6 Sheehan

7 Aki

8 Doris

9 Crowley

10 Hanson

After that its a bit much of a muchness

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122279385#Comment_122279385

I don't disagree with some of the reasoning, but there were multiple posts here post squad announcement all saying something along the lines of:

His stats are unreal but he's not getting a look in for Ireland

his stats are very impressive even with starting from the bench

 Anyway, it's all moot, I don't think he can have done much more to be honest, if it was a player from another team posting those kind of stats I'd wager their fans would be saying the same.

But now, there are multiple posts for people trying to rationalise my piece where I illustrated that the much vaunted stats aren't actually that impressive at all.

Maybe it is the case that Munster overuse him as a carrier, and as a result we don't see his best side there, but constantly claiming him to be a really strong carrier doesn't stand up to scrutiny. I pulled the same numbers together for Nick Timoney, for comparison, and while he played 151 fewer minutes than Coombes, he too outcarried him in terms of metres. He had 87 fewer carries, but 281 more metres, so his average is 4.3m per carry. In short, on average over the course of the season the average Nick Timoney carry is more than twice as effective as the average Gavin Coombes carry.

As a tackler, he also has a 91% tackle success percentage, and only a slightly lower quantum of tackles (16 fewer).

So - the people who are saying Gavin Coombes is unlucky "because the stats etc" are just wrong, and aren't looking at the whole picture.

snotboogie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122279568#Comment_122279568

But he had by far the most successful carries in the league this season with 115, nearly double Nick Timmony's total of 73. As you intimated yourself, a 5 metre run in the loose on the halfway line can be less valuable than a 2 meter carry on an opposition line. Modified stats like this provided by the URC can help to give a better picture. I don't think you can say he doesn't have good stats when he leads two categories (carries and successful carries) and is 3rd in another (total tackles) on the URC's stats home page.

Clo-Clo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122279568#Comment_122279568

It won't matter what stats are reasons are put forward. People have decided Coombes should be in the squad and any number of reasons have been pulled out over the years as to why he isn't, bias etc etc

I personally still don't get the accusations of bias and all sorts for the Irish Management team. Farrell has come from outside the Irish game, the only link he has with a province was a short coaching trip with Munster. From what I can see he picks on form and players who he thinks will fit into his planning.

As I posted earlier today, the dropping of Ross and Harry Byrne was a bigger surprise to me, both with more caps and Ross was critical part of the Grand Slam. Yet not much of a whisper. Harry has played probably his best season in terms of games and against top opposition, also stayed injury free. Ross also had good games this season and the final v Toulouse his performance wasn't any better or worse than Ntamack but both have been dropped out of the squad.

Also the 10 is an area which has significantly more question marks over it since Sexton retired. Yet not much discussion