Ireland Team Talk XII: Farrell's First Fifteen

snotboogie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122279568#Comment_122279568

But he had by far the most successful carries in the league this season with 115, nearly double Nick Timmony's total of 73. As you intimated yourself, a 5 metre run in the loose on the halfway line can be less valuable than a 2 meter carry on an opposition line. Modified stats like this provided by the URC can help to give a better picture. I don't think you can say he doesn't have good stats when he leads two categories (carries and successful carries) and is 3rd in another (total tackles) on the URC's stats home page.

Clo-Clo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122279568#Comment_122279568

It won't matter what stats are reasons are put forward. People have decided Coombes should be in the squad and any number of reasons have been pulled out over the years as to why he isn't, bias etc etc

I personally still don't get the accusations of bias and all sorts for the Irish Management team. Farrell has come from outside the Irish game, the only link he has with a province was a short coaching trip with Munster. From what I can see he picks on form and players who he thinks will fit into his planning.

As I posted earlier today, the dropping of Ross and Harry Byrne was a bigger surprise to me, both with more caps and Ross was critical part of the Grand Slam. Yet not much of a whisper. Harry has played probably his best season in terms of games and against top opposition, also stayed injury free. Ross also had good games this season and the final v Toulouse his performance wasn't any better or worse than Ntamack but both have been dropped out of the squad.

Also the 10 is an area which has significantly more question marks over it since Sexton retired. Yet not much discussion

nerd69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122279568#Comment_122279568

I dont think the stats are the point per se but when its said hes good enough people say hes not. When he has big carry stats people dispute them. Its difficult to point blank show how good a player is unless he wins a world cup and even then people shrug

ulsteru20s

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122279630#Comment_122279630

Dropping harry and ross reminds me of when he dropped carberry. I don't actually see any big drop in form with any of them. They are all essentially the same as they always were.

To me its insane that prendergast is in this team over harry byrne. And doubly so over ross.

Clo-Clo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122279637#Comment_122279637

I think Predergast is going for the experience and not to actually play, I can't see him getting minutes. Maybe Farrell is looking towards the future and decided it would be better to bring Predergast instead of a Harry/Ross who won't get minutes

If the plan is to play 6-2 because Hansen is out and Keenan is gone then Frawley on bench makes sense

I like Predergast, he is a talent and he has played well this season but better to Harry or Ross? not for me.

Who knows, Farrell won't fly in injury cover I expect so if something happens to a player then Predergast will bump up, or maybe he knows them all out in training and gets minutes, it is a huge ask for a young kid but best of luck to him

Clo-Clo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122279636#Comment_122279636

Winning a WC medal doesn't automatically make the player better than other players from other countries in the same position.

Are you saying DuPont isn't the best 9 in the World because he doesn't have a WC medal?

aloooof

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122279623#Comment_122279623

100% agree with this.

Metres per carry stats are obviously important, but in an attritional game like rugby, volume also matters. In other words, carrying at a lower volume doesn't mean you'd still have the same metres per carry if it was ramped up to the same volume.

Fwiw, I think Coombes had a better season last year than this, but for me, he's always passed both the stat test and the eye test.

I see similarities with McCloskey tbh. Incredibly good for his Province, but on the outside internationally. Once he eventually got an opportunity, he showed he was more than capable. If Coombes got a chance, I think he could do similar to what McCloskey in green showed last season (and I was delighted for him tbh. Absolutely class player).

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122279623#Comment_122279623

I have absolutely no idea the basis for what the URC deem a "successful" carry, they don't explain the methodology or reasoning anywhere (that I can find). Another significant limitation of those numbers is they omit the players who haven't played a certain amount of games.

The numbers I've provided are based on the entire seasons for these players, across all competitions.

People keep using the 2m carry on opposition line thing - but it's worth noting Nick Timoney scored 5 tries more than Coombes this season too (12 v 7).

His tackling stats are good, but nothing out of the ordinary - Doris had more tackles this season at virtually the same effectiveness and Timoney had ever so slightly less at the same effectiveness. I've already made the point that the sheer volume of carries isn't an impressive stat when the average carry is so low. He would be better served carrying less tbh and carrying more effectively.

Must love hardship

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122279637#Comment_122279637

He is not in the team yet. He is 3rd choice outhalf on a summer tour.

Barring an injury Sam may not play a minute.

Ross was at the World cup. Harry was in the 6 nations squad. The coaches know what they can do and what they can't do.

It's a great opportunity to have an proper look a Sam and maybe better use of a 3rd choice outhalf position than Ross or Harry.

ulsteru20s

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122279660#Comment_122279660

He's still one injury from playing. They should have taken ross as well in that case.

Throwing Prendergast into an actual game on this tour would be imo mental. So, hopefully they do have people ready to fly in.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122279636#Comment_122279636

No, that isn't accurate.

There were multiple posts claiming his stats were amazing, and justified his inclusion.

It's not "disputing" stats to actually look at them and see the real numbers. I delved into those stats and you see they actually aren't that impressive, certainly not as a carrier by comparison to Caelan Doris, who had far more impressive carrying stats and against tougher opposition on average too.

If anything - the stats to me are a perfect illustration of why Munster fans feel he should be in the team and why he actually isn't in the team.

He has high volumes which increase his prominence, but the actual output is at best mediocre.

Former Former Former

Don't think anyone is disputing the URC stats, just how much they really mean for international selection. Like, the top performers in almost every category have one thing in common - none of them are front-line test players.

Why? Because these are the ones who play more URC matches, while the test players feature less and so rack up lower numbers.

P.Walnuts

Our depth at loose head is very, very worrying .

Don't know Porters minutes this season but I imagine he plays on average 65+ per game

Don't think he can keep that up season after season, we need to strike lucky with our youth system and fast

theVersatile

The thing I'm more intrigued about is what on earth happens if Doris gets injured? Are we really going to play Timoney or Prendergast at 8? Guys who, although having played at 8 at club level, are more suited to flanker especially at an international level.

The curveball move in that situation would be Beirne to 8, but I don't see that happening given he hasn't played there since he's Scarlets days and the fact we're only bringing three out and out locks anyways.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122279710#Comment_122279710

I think it would be Timoney - he's mostly played at 8 this season. His last 14 games have been at 8, and of 20 starts this season, 17 have been at 8.

theVersatile

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122279725#Comment_122279725

Yeah it's an interesting one. I always thought Farrell viewed him as a JVDF style 7. His three Irish caps to date have been at 7 (twice starting and once replacing JVDF off the bench) - as was his Ireland XV appearance against the Maori - but I'd still probably put him at 8 over Prendergast or Beirne if it came down to it.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122279749#Comment_122279749

Yeah, I liked Beirne at 8 back in his Scarlets days, but don't think he has the dynamism for it anymore.

Cian Prendergast was picked at 8 in a RWC warm-up last year, and started twice for Connacht there during the year but don't think it's his best position. With this squad, I think if Doris was hurt it would almost certainly be Timoney to 8, and Timoney may well sit on the bench in the 20 shirt, given he can do a job across all three backrow positions.

Former Former Former

I don't think Farrell gets too bothered about numbers in the back row, Doris has moved to 7 on multiple occasions. I would say any of Timoney, Prendergast or even Baird would play 8 if needed.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122279684#Comment_122279684

I suspect Farrell would be happier with Prendergast getting the minutes than Byrne in that scenario to be honest. There is no way they will fly anyone in to take his place if it comes to it.

I think he has just decided that neither are what he wants at international level. When he decides that he can be quite ruthless at looking for other options.

I don't understand why people think it would be so bad for Prenderfast to have to play.

awec

I think it has become fairly clear over the years that a players general form in the URC doesn't really matter (unless they're playing really badly).

What matters to the selectors is how you play in the big games, namely the interpros (when you are often playing against the players you are competing for a spot with) and Euro games.

To use Coombes as an example again, I distinctly remember him travelling to Ravenhill before Christmas and Dave McCann played him off the park. It may feel a long time ago to us fans but I'd bet it's a data point that is still relevant to the Ireland coaches.

ulsteru20s

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122279786#Comment_122279786

I don't think he is remotely ready for test match rugby and that can damage a player if played too soon.

Jump_In_Jack

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122277886#Comment_122277886

Assume expected selection:
Porter, Sheehan, Furlong
Beirne, McCarthy
O’Mahony (C), Doris, Van der Flier
Murray, Crowley,
Lowe, Aki, Ringrose, Nash
O’Brien.
Bench: Kelleher, Healy, Bealham, Ryan, Timoney, Casey, Frawley, Henshaw.
2nd Bench: Herring, O’Toole, Jager, Baird, C Prendergast, Blade, S Prendergast, Larmour.
Wider Squad: McCloskey, Stockdale, Izuchuwu, Osborne.

On that basis, selected in this order:
Captain:
1 O’Mahony (C)

Best players:
2 Beirne
3 Doris
4 Sheehan

By least depth in position:
5 Crowley
6 O’Brien
7 Porter

By least competition in position:
8 Lowe
9 Nash
10 Furlong
11 Van der Flier
12 Murray
13 Ringrose
14 Aki
15 McCarthy

Bench: Healy, Frawley, Ryan, Henshaw, Casey, Timoney, Bealham, Kelleher.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122279814#Comment_122279814

In what way is he not remotely ready?

He has played against every single South African URC team in South Africa already. He has very nearly as much gametime as Crowley did when he started against Australia.

ulsteru20s

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122279855#Comment_122279855

He's as thin as a rake, doesn't seem to like tackling and has not to my knowledge played a single minute in a game that mattered or wasn't already decided when he came on.

He's ready for a summer of adding muscle and an EI tour, not test rugby.

VayNiice

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122279636#Comment_122279636

I presume you're referring to kleyn with the WC comment? A WC medal does not make you a world class player. Look at Steven Donald.

A lot is being made of Coombes' effectiveness in the carry 1m from the line. Maybe Farrell doesn't place much value in that when he already has Sheehan, Porter, Furlong etc who are all as effective from close range?

Shehal

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122278503#Comment_122278503

Case and point, the 2023 6N. JGP played 100 minutes across the 5 games…Ireland still dominated.

aloooof

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122279795#Comment_122279795

McCann was exceptional that day, to be fair. But I think more broadly, I'd argue Coombes has previously played well in big games - he was absolutely exceptional in Europe last season coming into the 6 Nations - but still couldn't force his way in.

If any of the 4 incumbents around then got injured, I suspect he'd have been next cab off the rank. (Tbh at the time, I'd have argued he should've been ahead of Conan who had a drop in form. Conan, to his credit, did hit some form during the 6N's).

Timing, luck, injuries all come into it. You could even argue if Farrell had been experimenting with a 6-2 split back then (which he seems much more open to now) Coombes could've found himself in the 23.

Such are the vagaries of selection.

nerd69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122279670#Comment_122279670

Im saying faf de klerk is a good 9 and wed be lucky to have him

nerd69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122279863#Comment_122279863

A world cup medal dosent make a good player take this one famous exampme i had to go back 13 years for. We could do worse than stephen donald as a backup 10 now

Clo-Clo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122279911#Comment_122279911

I think we all know who you are talking about

Just because a player has a WC medal doesn't make them better than any other player in the World. But bang away at trying to edge in a certain player on every conversation about Ireland