Ireland Team Talk XII: Farrell's First Fifteen

molloyjh

TRC10 wrote: »

For now....

But he's 36 now, he can't string 3 games together, and sooner or later his performances won't be any better than what we have, at which point we'll have to start bedding in a new 10 from scratch.

Carbery is the next best. And he needs to be backed from here on out IMO, with Sexton on the bench and H.Byrne getting minutes here and there. Carbery could potentially have 6 starts under his belt before the start of the 6N and Murray playing inside him. That's not bad at all.

But he needs time. He seems to be playing within himself but that's natural as he's been out for so long. But he needs consistent games to rebuild his confidence.

So Ireland should play a worse player and get worse results in the hope that this worse player might be the best we have at some indeterminate point in the future despite not really looking like he'll ever quite be good enough? Sacrifice short term for long term loss?

Carbery needs to get a run of games with Munster and show he has some form there before being installed as Irelands first choice 10 because he's the least worst when we ignore our best option.

TRC10

molloyjh wrote: »

So Ireland should play a worse player and get worse results in the hope that this worse player might be the best we have at some indeterminate point in the future despite not really looking like he'll ever quite be good enough? Sacrifice short term for long term loss?

Carbery needs to get a run of games with Munster and show he has some form there before being installed as Irelands first choice 10 because he's the least worst when we ignore our best option.

I don't know how you figure he's never looked like he'll be good enough. He was absolutely on fire for Munster before he got his injury issues. To the point where there was genuine debate over who would start 10 in 2019.

If Carbery gets a solid pre season and a good run of games early next season and can find form again, there's not a lot between him and the current Sexton IMO. In other words, I don't think he is a blatantly worse player.

I also don't believe playing Carbery for the rest of the year would lead to worse results. Have you seen our fixture list? USAx2 Japan, Moana Pasifica and NZ.

molloyjh

TRC10 wrote: »

I don't know how you figure he's never looked like he'll be good enough. He was absolutely on fire for Munster before he got his injury issues. To the point where there was genuine debate over who would start 10 in 2019.

If Carbery gets a solid pre season and a good run of games early next season and can find form again, there's not a lot between him and the current Sexton IMO. In other words, I don't think he is a blatantly worse player.

I also don't believe playing Carbery for the rest of the year would lead to worse results. Have you seen our fixture list? USAx2 Japan, Moana Pasifica and NZ.

You said from here on out, which literally (by the literal definition of the word) extends out beyond the end of the year.

And I never said Carbery never looked good enough. But right now he doesn't. And right now there is a lot between himself and Sexton.

As I said above (and you echoed in your post), if Carbery can get a run of games with Munster and show some form then maybe he can be considered for first choice 10. But if he can't do that then he shouldn't be. Right now he is a long, long way off where he needs to be in order for that conversation to happen.

It's also worth noting that players don't play in a vacuum. A series of poor performances at 10 will almost certainly mean a series of poor performances overall. And that almost certainly of would have an effect on the team as a whole.

aloooof

TRC10 wrote: »

I don't know how you figure he's never looked like he'll be good enough. He was absolutely on fire for Munster before he got his injury issues. To the point where there was genuine debate over who would start 10 in 2019.

I honestly don’t think this is true tbh. At the end of 2018, Sexton had just been named the world rugby player of the year.

Carbery returned from injury on 15th Dec vs Castres and was poor. He then went on possibly his best spell for Munster of 4 games vs Leinster, Connacht, Gloucester and Exeter, getting Man of the Match in 2 of them, I think. He also had that decent showing coming on a Scotland in the 6 Nations.

I was certainly Carbery’s best spell of form. But I don’t think many legitimately thought he should be starting ahead of Sexton given Sexton’s very recent standing.

Following that, Carbery went on to get injured. Even if it was a debate, it was very short lived.

Dave_The_Sheep

It wasn't a debate. It was a conversation about who might take Sexton's spot after he stops playing. As it happens that conversation has gone on far too long to be comfortable, because a) Sexton is still the best fly half in the country and b) none of the potentials have come close to declaring themselves the heir-in-waiting.

We've two years left til 2023 and nobody has their hand up. From the provinces:
a) Connacht
- Jack Carty, has had a good few chances now and doesn't appear to have impressed the coaching staff. Hit and miss, probably has the highest potential to play well, but equally has a bad floor for making gaffes. The Finn Russell of Ireland fly halfs, and I don't want Finn Russell as my fly half if I expect to win consistently. Feel bad for him though.
b) Leinster
- Ross Byrne has had a few caps and has had a rough time of with some very rough starts against England in Twickenham and a start against a far superior France where he did OK, but I think it's fair to say he's a very good Heineken Cup player, but perhaps international games might be a step too far if we're to have serious aspirations. Nevertheless, probably the most solid option, bar maybe option d1)
- Harry Byrne, far too green. He's not in the picture for 2023. It's just not happening.
c) Munster
-Joey Carbery. I'm not convinced at him at 10, never have been. He was anointed the heir apparent, but was a far better 15 at Leinster prior to his (totally voluntary) move to Munster. He's been scuppered by injury but even in his regular periods he's not excelled or even been solid. Today against Japan was really not his best game by a long shot. He's going to need a lot of gametime at 10 to get up to speed, and even then I'm not sure it'll work out.
d) Ulster
- Madigan, it's not happening. Love the man, but it's not a thing.
- Billy Burns, a good player, but not without his faults. Like Ross B, he's solid without being spectacular. More flashy, better passer than Ross B, better runner, worse kicker generally (tactically solid though).

It's between Ross B and Billy B for 2023 for me. I don't see Joey panning out, but I would be f*cking delighted to be proven wrong.

If Sexton is still playing internationally in 2023, it's a bad indictment of Irish rugby. I wouldn't put it past him trying though, the mad bast*rd.

If we had a world class 9, I think we could live with Billy or Ross B, but we don't.

Richie_Rich89

Dave_The_Sheep wrote: »

It wasn't a debate. It was a conversation about who might take Sexton's spot after he stops playing. As it happens that conversation has gone on far too long to be comfortable, because a) Sexton is still the best fly half in the country and b) none of the potentials have come close to declaring themselves the heir-in-waiting.

We've two years left til 2023 and nobody has their hand up. From the provinces:
a) Connacht
- Jack Carty, has had a good few chances now and doesn't appear to have impressed the coaching staff. Hit and miss, probably has the highest potential to play well, but equally has a bad floor for making gaffes. The Finn Russell of Ireland fly halfs, and I don't want Finn Russell as my fly half if I expect to win consistently. Feel bad for him though.
b) Leinster
- Ross Byrne has had a few caps and has had a rough time of with some very rough starts against England in Twickenham and a start against a far superior France where he did OK, but I think it's fair to say he's a very good Heineken Cup player, but perhaps international games might be a step too far if we're to have serious aspirations. Nevertheless, probably the most solid option, bar maybe option d1)
- Harry Byrne, far too green. He's not in the picture for 2023. It's just not happening.
c) Munster
-Joey Carbery. I'm not convinced at him at 10, never have been. He was anointed the heir apparent, but was a far better 15 at Leinster prior to his (totally voluntary) move to Munster. He's been scuppered by injury but even in his regular periods he's not excelled or even been solid. Today against Japan was really not his best game by a long shot. He's going to need a lot of gametime at 10 to get up to speed, and even then I'm not sure it'll work out.
d) Ulster
- Madigan, it's not happening. Love the man, but it's not a thing.
- Billy Burns, a good player, but not without his faults. Like Ross B, he's solid without being spectacular. More flashy, better passer than Ross B, better runner, worse kicker generally (tactically solid though).

It's between Ross B and Billy B for 2023 for me. I don't see Joey panning out, but I would be f*cking delighted to be proven wrong.

If Sexton is still playing internationally in 2023, it's a bad indictment of Irish rugby. I wouldn't put it past him trying though, the mad bast*rd.

Why? He's not some 16 year old who has never played professionally. And the World Cup is more than two years away.

Dave_The_Sheep wrote: »

If we had a world class 9, I think we could live with Billy or Ross B, but we don't.

Conor looks set to start for the Lions in South Africa. What more do you want?

Dave_The_Sheep

Richie_Rich89 wrote: »

Why? He's not some 16 year old who has never played professionally. And the World Cup is more than two years away.

Indeed. It's a whole two years and two months away.

Richie_Rich89 wrote: »

Conor looks set to start for the Lions in South Africa. What more do you want?

In what is possibly the weakest scrum half selection process for the Lions since 2001? There's nobody, including Murray, who stands out. He's the best of a weak lot.

What I want is a scrum half who is solidly top 2 choices in the world for his position. I want 2017/8 Conor Murray, I want that standard. That's what I want, and it's what we won't have in 2023. We've been blessed to have both Sexton and Murray in top-of-the-world beating form in the past five years. We'll have neither in 2023.

AbusesToilets

The next best Flyhalf is stuck in exile for dubious reasons, while the team struggles. Carberry is wasted at 10.

ersatz

AbusesToilets wrote: »

The next best Flyhalf is stuck in exile for dubious reasons, while the team struggles. Carberry is wasted at 10.

Jackson also does black face, we need some of this in the Irish team.

https://twitter.com/IgtIan/status/1378027092487647239/photo/1

Buer

aloooof wrote: »

You might have a point with durability but I disagree entirely in terms of performance. When fit, Sexton is still producing at a much higher level than we’ve seen from any of replacements, imo.

It's a ridiculous take. Do people not recall the fact that his last two showings in green were against Scotland and England where he was vital to both wins?

He needs to be phased out urgently due to his age and physical condition but there's clear daylight between him and the rest in terms of performances right now.

Bazzo

At this stage I'm not sure if it matters if Sexton is the better player, if one of the other players will actually benefit from the game time then we need to be selecting them.

molloyjh

Bazzo wrote: »

At this stage I'm not sure if it matters if Sexton is the better player, if one of the other players will actually benefit from the game time then we need to be selecting them.

What does that mean though? Does that mean that of the games they play sees them improve? How could anyone possibly know if that game time would make them better or not? And what if it doesn't? Are we sacrificing short term results in vain? How is that good for anyone then? And how would it impact everyone else in thr set-up?

aloooof

Bazzo wrote: »

At this stage I'm not sure if it matters if Sexton is the better player, if one of the other players will actually benefit from the game time then we need to be selecting them.

Which is exactly what we did yesterday, to be fair.

Bazzo

molloyjh wrote: »

What does that mean though? Does that mean that of the games they play sees them improve? How could anyone possibly know if that game time would make them better or not? And what if it doesn't? Are we sacrificing short term results in vain? How is that good for anyone then? And how would it impact everyone else in thr set-up?

Cool your jets starsky. I have no idea if it will benefit them or not, luckily I'm not an international rugby coach. It's why I specifically said "if one of the other players will actually benefit from the game time"

aloooof wrote: »

Which is exactly what we did yesterday, to be fair.

Yep

Buer

Bazzo wrote: »

At this stage I'm not sure if it matters if Sexton is the better player, if one of the other players will actually benefit from the game time then we need to be selecting them.

I tend to agree but a genuine problem is that the other options are all patchy at provincial level. If they're not stepping up there, it's hard to trust anyone for a prolonged run in green.

Fitzgerald was probably the best outhalf in Ireland over the RC. He's not going to be in any Irish sides soon though.

stephen_n

Downlinz wrote: »

I don't think you can judge a player's capability from a game here and there, someone needs to be backed for a run of games as the starting 10 and take it from there. It appears to be Carberry now and I hope that continues into the autumn and next 6 nations.

I don't believe any of the options could be worse than a 36 year old Sexton and the kind of performances and durability he has been putting in lately so we have nothing to lose and everything to gain.

Can you point out to me which performances by any of them in green have been better than Sextons form over the last two years?

The fact remains, none of them have performed well enough to demand selection ahead of Sexton. Maybe Carberry will, who knows but I have seen absolutely nothing so far since his return to action to suggest he will.

shootermacg

You have a lot of moving parts that haven't played together before and haven't played for a while either. I think you have to:

A: Expect a bit of rust.
B: Expect errors due to the combinations.

The biggest combination would be in the half backs, so play JGP with Byrne and play Carbery with Casey. Also you have to allow for guys having to reacquaint themselves with the pace of international rugby. I'd expect a much better showing against the US.

But from memory, even the first choice team made oodles or errors in the 6N.

TRC10

shootermacg wrote: »

You have a lot of moving parts that haven't played together before and haven't played for a while either. I think you have to:

I don't buy this.

Every one of the starting XV had played 6 Nations rugby and have been in pretty much every training camp since Farrell took over (bar Carbery) and many have been involved with Ireland for 5 years or more.

People here are talking like it was a Baa Baas or Lions team who met up a week ago. It wasn't. It was a team of experienced international rugby players with 30 or more caps (Kilcoyne, Ryan, O'Mahony, VDF, Carbery, Stockdale, Larmour), and few guys with less experience, but who have played 6 Nations rugby (Kelleher, Bealham, Dillane, Doris, JGP, Stu, Farrell, Keenan). Some of whom were potential Lions (Kelleher, Doris, Keenan)

These guys have all been in camp and training/playing together for nearly 2 years. Many for much longer.

England have 8 new caps in their starting XV today, and I guarantee they won't look as disjointed, unfamiliar and poor as we were yesterday.

molloyjh

TRC10 wrote: »

I don't buy this.

Every one of the starting XV had played 6 Nations rugby and have been in pretty much every training camp since Farrell took over (bar Carbery) and many have been involved with Ireland for 5 years or more.

People here are talking like it was a Baa Baas or Lions team who met up a week ago. It wasn't. It was a team of experienced international rugby players with 30 or more caps (Kilcoyne, Ryan, O'Mahony, VDF, Carbery, Stockdale, Larmour), and few guys with less experience, but who have played 6 Nations rugby (Kelleher, Bealham, Dillane, Doris, JGP, Stu, Farrell, Keenan). Some of whom were potential Lions (Kelleher, Doris, Keenan)

These guys have all been in camp and training/playing together for nearly 2 years. Many for much longer.

England have 8 new caps in their starting XV today, and I guarantee they won't look as disjointed, unfamiliar and poor as we were yesterday.

It's easier to not look disjointed against weaker opposition though.

TRC10

molloyjh wrote: »

It's easier to not look disjointed against weaker opposition though.

Japan are good, but I think we might be hyping them up a bit too much.

Aside from their World Cup on home soil, for which they had 200 days of preparation for.

What tier one nations have they beaten in the last 6 years?

If they're a tier 1 nation, they're the weakest tier 1 nation. They're exceptionally coached, well drilled and have a game plan that works for them. But apart from Matsushima and maybe Himeno, they don't have any players who get in another tier 1 nation's team.

sydthebeat

TRC10 wrote: »

England have 8 new caps in their starting XV today, and I guarantee they won't look as disjointed, unfamiliar and poor as we were yesterday.

England will put 50+ points on the US today.
The US have 3 debutants starting, and they haven't played a game in 21 months... And they aren't particularly good despite that as well.

There is absolutely no correlation between anything that happens in today's game versus what happened yesterday against Japan. None whatsoever.

Next week, when we play the same opposition, is the obvious game to compare markers with

shootermacg

TRC10 wrote: »

I don't buy this.

Every one of the starting XV had played 6 Nations rugby and have been in pretty much every training camp since Farrell took over (bar Carbery) and many have been involved with Ireland for 5 years or more.

People here are talking like it was a Baa Baas or Lions team who met up a week ago. It wasn't. It was a team of experienced international rugby players with 30 or more caps (Kilcoyne, Ryan, O'Mahony, VDF, Carbery, Stockdale, Larmour), and few guys with less experience, but who have played 6 Nations rugby (Kelleher, Bealham, Dillane, Doris, JGP, Stu, Farrell, Keenan). Some of whom were potential Lions (Kelleher, Doris, Keenan)

These guys have all been in camp and training/playing together for nearly 2 years. Many for much longer.

England have 8 new caps in their starting XV today, and I guarantee they won't look as disjointed, unfamiliar and poor as we were yesterday.

You don't have to buy it. It's true none the less. Many players on this team do not have more than a hand-full of caps.

Farrell and McCloskey have probably played one game together.
Carberry hasn't played with JGP, at least I can't remember that.
Carberry should be allowed more time, he's still probably not at 100% for his club yet, let alone at international.
Dillain/Ryan didn't click.
Daly came on early, on the right wing (he plays left wing/FB).
Carberry moved to 12, he doesn't really play 12 -why not Daly to 13?
Back row were fine, but they've played together before.

The team were much improved in the second half.

As far as rust is concerned, you don't often see Dorris throwing forward passes or not controlling the ball in the scrum.

theVersatile

TRC10 wrote: »

What tier one nations have they beaten in the last 6 years?
.

South Africa, Ireland, and Scotland.

molloyjh

TRC10 wrote: »

Japan are good, but I think we might be hyping them up a bit too much.

Aside from their World Cup on home soil, for which they had 200 days of preparation for.

What tier one nations have they beaten in the last 6 years?

If they're a tier 1 nation, they're the weakest tier 1 nation. They're exceptionally coached, well drilled and have a game plan that works for them. But apart from Matsushima, they don't have any players who get in another tier 1 nation's team.

You realise that we won, right?

And in the last 6 years they have beaten us, Scotland, Italy and South Africa. They've also come within 3 points of Wales in Cardiff and drawn with France in Paris. They are a steadily improving side and deserve credit for that.

TRC10

theVersatile wrote: »

South Africa, Ireland, and Scotland.

They haven't beaten SA in the last 6 years. They were comprehensively beat by them at home twice in 2019.

and you ignored the part where I said I said "Aside from their Home World Cup for which they had 200 day's preparation for

hahashake

TRC10 wrote: »

If they're a tier 1 nation, they're the weakest tier 1 nation. They're exceptionally coached, well drilled and have a game plan that works for them. But apart from Matsushima and maybe Himeno, they don't have any players who get in another tier 1 nation's team.

Before every crushing loss, the losing fans confidently claim that man-for-man, they have better players in almost every position. Point being, this is a terrible metric.

molloyjh

TRC10 wrote: »

They haven't beaten SA in the last 6 years. They were comprehensively beat by them at home twice in 2019.

and you ignored the part where I said I said "Aside from their Home World Cup for which they had 200 day's preparation for

They beat SA in September 2015, which is less than 6 years ago.

irishbucsfan

molloyjh wrote: »

You realise that we won, right?

And in the last 6 years they have beaten us, Scotland, Italy and South Africa. They've also come within 3 points of Wales in Cardiff and drawn with France in Paris. They are a steadily improving side and deserve credit for that.

And they were coming off playing very good opposition while we were coming in cold

shootermacg

Japan are a great team. The game against the Lions took a lot out of their legs in the second half and we capitalized on it.

TRC10

molloyjh wrote: »

They beat SA in September 2015, which is less than 6 years ago.

I've got a feeling you know I meant the 6 years since RWC 2015.