Ireland Team Talk XII: Farrell's First Fifteen

gameoverdude

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120117714#Comment_120117714

Job would worry you? Was that a threat or a request?

ulsteru20s

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120117732#Comment_120117732

If I was JOB, Osborne would worry me. Does that not make sense lol.

gameoverdude

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120117746#Comment_120117746

Yip.

Edit: I think job will be there or there abouts in the 6 nations.

Front row for Wales picks itself but the back 5 is a real challenge. Still not sure about Baird at 6 as a lot more will be asked of him and we know what POM / Beirne can deliver. Henderson another that on top form is a starter but I've watched a good bit of Ulster and he's been good but am not sure good enough to push back into the 15 / 23.

Centres are Henshaw and Ringrose if fit, if Henshaw is out and Farrell isn't bothered by Aki's exclusion in Connacht (which I don't think is form based at all) then I think he's still ahead of McCloskey but not much in it and all good options to have. Sexton at 10, Park has been more of a mixed bag but still think he's a shoo in for 9. Hansen, Keenan, Lowe for back three but it's getting really competitive there with Haley flying it, Larmour coming back with a bit of a bang too and the likes of Nash, Osbourne, JO'B, Balacoune and a good few others clearly all capable of slotting in.

If I had to guess the team (have specifically marked players I think are in full ownership of the starting jersey):

Porter (cert to start)

Sheehan

Furlong (cert to start)

Beirne (cert to start)

Ryan (cert to start)

POM

VDF (cert to start)

Doris (cert to start)

JGP

Sexton (cert to start)

Hansen (cert to start)

Henshaw (cert to start)

Ringrose (cert to start)

Lowe (cert to start)

Keenan (cert to start)

Healy

Kelleher

Bealham

Henderson

Conan

Murray but very close to going Casey

Carbery

JOB as he delivered in the Autumn Internationals but again could easily be Haley or Larmour

Akrasia

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120117338#Comment_120117338

Yeah. Stu hasn't played badly. He had to fight harder than anyone else to break into the Irish panel. it would be extremely unfair to drop him because his club are having a poor run of games.

gameoverdude

I think you have to go with pom and baird on the bench.

Must love hardship

My Stab at the panel if only 36. Obviously with Henshaw to come back in once recovered. I'm guessing Lowe is available too even though he's in NEw Zealand.

LH: Porter, Healy, Loughman

Hooker: Sheehan, Kelleher, Stewart

TH: Furlong, Bedhlam, Salanoa

SR: Ryan,McCarthy, Henderson, Bierne,Threadwell

BR: Baird, POM, Doris, VDF, Timoney, Conan,

SH: JGP, Murray, Casey

OH: Sexton, Carberry, Byrne

C: Crowley,Osborne, McCloskey, Ringrose,

B3: Lowe, Hansen, JOB, Keenan, Larmour, Stockdale.

Development players:

Doak, Forde.

Former Former Former

I don't think Henshaw has even trained since the Fiji game, can't see him being ready in three weeks

Wegians89

Centres I’d have would be Henshaw, Ringrose, Bundee McCloskey, Osbourne. If Bundee is gone I’d call up Frisch.

Stockdale isn’t getting near the squad and if Baird is picked in the back row id say it’ll be 4 locks and an extra back row. Prendergast or Coombes

CIARAN_BOYLE

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120118016#Comment_120118016

I agree but I would expect him to continue his rehab training in the national camp and named in the squad even if he doesn't feature.

Zeugnis

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120115154#Comment_120115154

Stockdale is also on a central contract and looks highly unlikely to figure. His case is obviously different as he has been injured and isn't close to retirement age, but I think it's further evidence of the dubious wisdom behind the central contract system.

This argument about Murray, Earls etc being worth a central contract for their experience is nonsense IMO. Enjoy the benefits of experience from those either still in a position to win the jersey on merit when it counts, like Johnny, or have them in the coaching staff like Paul O'Connell.

Quin_Dub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120118854#Comment_120118854

The Central contracts thing is overblown to be honest.

It's just a way of managing budgets more than anything else.

There is no indication that someone on a central contract is on more money that an international on a Provincial deal.

sydthebeat

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120118897#Comment_120118897

100%

they mean nothing in earnest. JVDF is on as much with leinster as he would do on a CC.

Being on a central contract certainly does not mean that player MUST get selected, despite what some of the conspiracy theorists here would purport. It simply means their contract is topped up by the IRFU over what a province may be able to afford, as a way to retain that players services in ireland.

we can actually see that as the global market gets more deflated, theres less requirement for CCs in ireland.

Akrasia

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120118854#Comment_120118854

Paul O Connell is retired

There is a difference between having a coach who used to be a world class player, and actually training/playing with/competing against a player who has that depth of experience.

This is just one of those things you regularly hear about from the younger players coming through.

A coach can tell you to have a positive attitude.

A teammate can show you how to actually implement that.

The fact of the matter is, if Murray wasn't on a central contract, he'd be playing in France this year, so would Earls, possibly Stockdale too

Munster wouldn't have renewed those contracts at their market value. The IRFU made a decision that it is better to have them in the Irish system than playing abroad.

starkid

its hardly overblown. Without seeing the actual finances its hard to prove. but parsing together the various interviews, Thornley articles, press releases, biographies one can only surmise that the central deals are the bigger deal. here's Beirne talking about it - https://www.the42.ie/tadhg-beirne-central-contract-5688701-Feb2022/ and here's Andy Farrell talking about it - https://www.the42.ie/irfu-central-contracts-5372079-Mar2021/. Both interviews indicate to me that central deals are in fact a big deal.

but as Nucifora pointed out we are getting to the stage where we are running out of room. So the central deals will become even more flawed. you can't ringfence 10-11 contracts in a 45 man squad game. it defies logic.

from what is known the best deals given are central deals. they come with gravitas and for all we know certain other perks (image rights, fees who knows).

they are a flawed, antiquated system. one that was pertinent when Ireland emerged from the doldrums in the early noughties and our players were coveted and attainable. their need nowadays is less obvious.

i can think of no other major squad sport that ringfences certain players on special bracketed deals and then unquestionably (from fans as well) continues them on those deals while they don't play. If it was soccer Murray, Earls , Stockdale would be transferred out. Toner and McGrath might have been dropped on their cc but they still recieved the better deal most likely.

hopefully in the future its eventually sidelined.

theres enough info from the various rugby biographies that central deals are, in fact, a big deal.

at the moment in the good times its working out. there has been various points over the last while where its been shown up for as a flaw. another nothing WC most likely will see their demise i'd imagine. We're lucky Irish rugby isn't full of dickheads like many other sports. Gibson Park is definitely on a lower deal than Murray, but is a bona fide number 1 pick.

its also a question of fairness and whats right. by all accounts Murray is on more money than JVDF. its not based on anything of the last 2 years.

I do think Murray makes the WC squad. Earls possibly for everything he has given rugby. Stockdale is done i imagine. He emerged in a period we were looking for fresh talent and was excellent. But now we ahve a plethora of excellent, consistent young players.

However it was refreshing to hear Rowntree speak about this in a roundabout way.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/sport/rugby/arid-41048900.html

of course we have people on here who think "form" is meaningless.

TLDR - there is nothing suggesting that the central deals aren't more lucrative than provincial. There's 13 central deals. its no coincidence that certain star players are on them. 3 of them, one which is rumoured to be a serious wedge of money, are not currently warrented. Another one is directly, currently linked to a players unhappiness and willingness to leave before a WC. yes, totally unimportant.

pickarooney

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120119185#Comment_120119185

Which ProD2 sides would Earls, Stockdale and Murray be interested in joining?

From having read some of the biographies one of the bigger factors for central contracts is the exposure as you are included in a lot of the IRFU related content, promotion, advertising etc and it does involve more money that way.

But I reject the idea that its ever been an influencing factor for coaches, even if it seems that way because they typically go to the best and as such highest profile players.

awec

Stockdale's deal is up this year and he will almost certainly lose his central contract anyway.

starkid

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120119437#Comment_120119437

I can accept the latter. at least after the O'Sullivan period.

Can we just agree in its current guise its unfair, at best. and we're lucky atm that A) Irish rugby is full of sound gentlemen and B) in a good period.

We'll know alot more when the squad is announced.

Aki's plight if true, could actually give us a big insight into the process and its flaws.

And like i said Murray and Earls are probably worth the spot for experience and morale etc. I was wrong with POM and its the role he always provided, and is ageing like fine wine.

like its not a major big deal anymore. the talent we are producing all across the board will lead to it becoming defunct or having the contracts be expanded.

anyway i'll shut up about it, just a personal bugbear. it just annoys me and annoys me when people say there is no difference, when the evidence suggests otherwise. Evidence like AF talking about it.

Former Former Former

The best players get the central contracts. The best players get picked most often. The best players get the most money.

Players on central contracts do not get picked BECAUSE they are on central contracts or get the most money BECAUSE they are on central contracts, it's because they're the best players.

VDF is an ususual case but his last contract was announced in Feb 2022, which means it was being negotiated in Nov/Dec 2021, which wasn't that long after he'd been dropped for a couple of 6N games and missed out on a Lions tour. His next one will 100% be a central deal.

As for Murray and Earls, what do people suggest? When form drops off, we simply rescind their contracts? That's not how it works, in rugby or in any other sport.

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120119467#Comment_120119467

Central contracts unlikely to expand I'd think.

I think a while back almost the entire Irish squad had one, they've been cutting back in recent years and keeping more players on provincial deals.

starkid

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120119499#Comment_120119499

they don't though. in all three scenarios. literally happening in real time. its fair to say the best most often do, but its not necessarily the case.

https://www.reddit.com/r/rugbyunion/comments/ts2af4/which_players_are_on_irfu_central_contracts_a/

your third paragraph is the exact flaw in this process. its based on old information and bad timing.

by the time Gibson Park gets one he might be on the way down. ditto Penny could emerge and play VDF off the park.

it 100 per cent works in LOADS of sports. contracts redone, new contracts with performance related bonuses, transfers, releases.there is nothing that can be done in these cases, but its why the central contract system carries flaws. thankfully at least Munster are making a stand. Murray is on what 500-600k? its wasteful and as i said unfair. but as somebody else pointed out it doesn't really matter and most likely is coming to a natural end or is basically a books balancing exercise.

and if Murray helps Ireland win a WC either by squad building, morale its probably worth it.

sydthebeat

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120119538#Comment_120119538

why would Gibson park get a central contract?

he only signed a new contract in February 2022. Assuming that was a 3 year contract, why would the IRFU give a 33 year old scrum half a central contract in his next negotiations? JGP may not be an automatic pick at that stage.

Former Former Former

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120119538#Comment_120119538

it 100 per cent works in LOADS of sports. contracts redone, new contracts with performance related bonuses, transfers, releases

No, it 100% does not, in any sport.

You cannot "redo" a contract without the player's agreement. You cannot transfer a player unless there's a club who wants to take him. You cannot release a player unless his contract is up or you pay him off.

None of these situations apply in Irish rugby.

You cannot simply downgrade a guy's contract because his form drops. I mean, it's literally the definition of a contract that you cannot do so.

starkid

by the same logic though why is Conor Murray on one? one he signed at 32.

as i said Murray is on by all accounts nearly the same headline deal of 500k-600k reported by Thornley.

Former Former Former

The only way to do this would be to have everyone on 1-year contracts all the time. And that is a stupid idea, we can all agree.

starkid

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120119580#Comment_120119580

ok contracts redone isn't a thing. the rest, it is.

but i never said you can downgrade in Irish rugby, hence why its a flawed system. you're betting that Murray will retain his form for the next few years without any escape clause. all you can do is not play him which is where Munster are at. but for the heavy price. in cash strapped times. and yes because of nature of rugby with no real loan oor transfer market.

100 per cent in football a player can be transfered out, banished to the wilderness, loaned out at a fee or wage cost to other team, bought out or released. it happens all the time.

Many sports use heavy performance related clauses. Liverpool make heavy use of this which is why the Salah deal was so scrutinised by the club. and at the moment is looking like a bad bet as his ceiling naturally settles. one thing can be for sure, LFC won't renew his deal if he continues in tht vein. what did the IRFU do when CM's form fell off a cliff at 32? they renewed his central deal

does rugby make use of performance related clauses?

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120119581#Comment_120119581

TBF - Murray's form has arguably been on a downward trend since the Australia tour in mid 2018 in my opinion (don't think he ever fully regained his athleticism post the neck injury), but you're still talking about a guy who is our best ever scrum half, and for 5 years or more was one of the best scrum halves in the world, and a 3 times Lions tourist (including tour captain for a period in 2021 - the year he would have negotiated his current deal).

It's not a like for like comparison.

I still think he'll be in our RWC squad this time around. You don't discard guys with that level of experience and historic quality, especially when he's known as being a leader and a good voice around the squad. Would Caolin Blade be a better option in a RWC squad (if you assume JGP and Casey are the other two)? I don't think he would.

Jump_In_Jack

I think nowadays the CC system is being used to reward past performance as much (if not more) than current or future performance, and also to keep high-profile players playing in Ireland.

The IRFU probably have plenty of money at the moment, so splashing a bit of cash to keep all players at Andy Farrell's disposal is smart business right now.

It's interesting to think about what the next generation of central contracts will become, the likes of Doris, Sheehan, Van der Flier and Keenan should be on them in my opinion.

The thing with rugby though is injury is never far away for any player, and so I think that's why a lot of the rewards come after performance rather than before. That's just the way I see it, looking after good servants to the provinces and to Ireland over the years, as well as tying in the up and coming stars such as Sheehan.

starkid

just to reiterate i would have CM in the squad.

Earls too, he's well liked. experienced.

i stupidly argued before about POM and i was completely WRONG. he might not be the best player on a pitch but his leadership and everything around camp is massive.

CC not a major deal. and for me its coming to a natural end so its not a major thing.

some of Irelands best players currently aren't on one. thats all that needs to be said about how important it must be i suppose.

Jump_In_Jack

One point I thought of in response to the query over Murray being paid a large salary, I think it's possible that when he was at the top of his prime and wanted by foreign clubs all over the world there's a good chance he had to take a pay cut to stay in Ireland (I'm thinking he probably had an offer on the table from the likes of Toulon for 1m a year or something at the time), and it's possible that the IRFU negotiated that if he turned down the big money offers that he would be looked after by the IRFU for a few extra years as long as he provides his availability and continues to give his best effort, and to be fair to him he has been good when called upon, regardless of whether starting or off the bench in the past season or so. Just my musings on it, I don't have any way of knowing what really goes on in those contract negotiations.

Former Former Former

The whole point of central contracts is to keep the best players in Ireland.

What this poster is proposing would do the exact opposite, aside from all the employment law issues.

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120119499#Comment_120119499

None of the Leinster back rows are on a central deal. Doris is also on a Leinster contract.

I don't think it's as simple as "the best players get central deals". It's certainly the case that only the best players are eligible for one, but there does appear to be further criteria than just this.

Former Former Former

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120119649#Comment_120119649

Let's see what happens when Doris and VDF get their next contracts.

What's happening here is people are saying the best players at any single point in time should be the ones on central deals and when you fall out of that bracket, you're stripped of it.

"Unworkable" is the kindest description of this idea.

starkid

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120119648#Comment_120119648

that was the original point yes, in the past. yes all the players would leave. VDF and the other lads all in danger of leaving are they?

when you fall out of that bracket you 100 per cent should not be given another one. its not hard..

nobody is saying strip them thats a strawman you've created. as i agreed yes contracts can't be redone until the set dates for renewal etc. should CM have been awarded another one based on form and performance in the last round? the only fair and sporting answer is most likely no, and its been proven by him being frozen out. his deal runs til 2024

theres no idea being worked. its pointing out imo that the cc are flawed. and are being proven to be flawed. again as we see with Aki. we have a range of posters saying they aren't worth more money or prestige (they are according to the boss and at least one player involved) to the usual claiming they are essential. They aren't.

i just finished Sextons diary of his lions year found it in a charity shop. its probably the most honest book on all this shite there is. he literally said stuff that people argued on here for years didnt happen etc.

you literally have pretty discernble proof of them mattering, yet we have people out right stating nah its nothing.

if they are as straightforward as everybody thinks you're looking at VDF, Doris, Sheehan, Kelleher, Coombes, Baird, Casey, Keenan, Hansen, Lowe being put on one. Sheahan and Kelleher will be a test case actually. same age, near similar ability, split playing times. pick one over the other in that situation, and its just going to show how bonkers its becoming.

the whole AKI shitshow rumoured is coming from this kind of logic. does he currently deserve a cc renewal? the answer is most likely no.

aloooof

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120119649#Comment_120119649

I think FFF's overall point is largely correct, but I think there also might a small element of wanting to spread them across the Provinces involved too. Does anyone have a list of the players currently on one? Very quickly off the top of my head, I can think of:

Murray, Earls, POM, Beirne, Sexton, Furlong, Ryan, Porter, Henshaw, Ringrose, Henderson, Stockdale, Aki.

irelandrover

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120119648#Comment_120119648

I always thought the point of the central contracts was to take those players off the books of the provinces. Since they would miss large parts of the season for their clubs then Ireland should pay them.

With the competition in the back row no one should get a central contract. None of those players are guaranteed to start next year. Conan was a lions starter a year ago and now isnt sure to get into the leinster team.

With the change to the club season to have no games during international windows it also takes away part of the need for the central contracts.

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120119725#Comment_120119725

That's the full list.

Stockdale, Earls, Aki, Ryan, Henderson, Sexton and Stockdale are the ones up for renewal at the end of the season or after the RWC.

Stockdale and Earls are certainly going to lose theirs. Henderson and Ryan will renew. Aki unknown, Sexton might retire.

The big players who currently don't have one are VDF, Doris and Keenan. There's no way all 3 are getting a central deal, that would put 8/9 Leinster players on central contracts.

starkid

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120119742#Comment_120119742

but thats the flaw right there. all three SHOULD be on one. in a sporting sense.

the only way to get insight into this is from somebody itk like Murray Kinsella or Jackman.

are the CC's worth A) more money, and B) carry prestige amongst the pro rugby community? if they don't yeah it doesn't matter. if they do then i think it is a big deal and Irish rugby is just very lucky to have decent skins playing. If a guy is on a 500k deal and isn't performing it 100 per cent creates bad squad dynamics. Sexton talks about the notions in his last book. He wanted parity with Heaslip and he didn't get it.

i can agree now in 2023 the idea of them getting selected is no longer valid. However if they don't it just creates a black hole in funding, and means theres no space for the next deserving player for 2 years or so.

i'm coming at this from a sense of fairness and sporting merit. i just don't get it personally. it was the best system created in whtever year it was 2003, and when 20 plus guys were on them. Now its just antiquated. Their future depends on the next year. Another WC deflation will invovle serious navel gazing with lasting effects i'd imagine.

Former Former Former

If someone can propose a workable solution, then let's hear it. As it stands, I can see two solutions, neither of which is plausible .

1. When someone "earns" a central contract, they get one. Then you're constantly adding to the number and so we end up with 25+ guys on central deals.
2. Make them all of short duration, 6 months or a year max. Then the players have no certainty of tenure and thus are always open to offers from abroad.

Or you just get rid of them completely. As far as I know, the difference is almost entirely in the kudos attached to them anyway, so maybe that's what we do.

Or we say that the system has served us well so what problem are we trying to fix, and we just get on with it.

starkid

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120119902#Comment_120119902

i think its as plausible you have 25 instead of 11 in a 45 man squad. the money is all IRFU basically anyway.

but look yeah the two latter points are valid.

in interesting news articles - https://www.the42.ie/ike-anagu-ireland-ogara-5970525-Jan2023/

whatever about central deals, i don't think we can stop trying to identify IQ talent. good to see the work still being done there.

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120119902#Comment_120119902

I don't think it's entirely superficial or just about kudos.

I think the differences are

1. For the player, their salary band is higher than it would be on a provincial contract.
2. For the club, they are billed €0 for the player at the end of the season, compared to provincial players where the club is billed a % of the contract by the IRFU. The IRFU pay a portion of all contracts I believe, with that amount varying depending on what band the player is in, e.g. development player vs regular league player etc, any salary above what the IRFU will pay comes out of the club's own earnings.

The more central deals a club has, the less of it's own earnings it has to spend on wages. This is why they are spread around a bit, if they were all concentrated in one club that would result in significant financial imbalance.

pickarooney

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120119538#Comment_120119538

In what area of any business does an employee renegotiate an existing, running contract, to earn less??

pickarooney

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120119742#Comment_120119742

It's a disgrace. Stockdale has two central contracts!

Podge_irl

This whole argument about them "not working" is ridiculous though. They are essentially an accounting tool (one that Leinster do seem to benefit from at the moment).

However, for all the talk of players on central contracts not be selected showing them to not work - do you really think that if central contracts didn't exist Murray wouldn't have signed onto a provincial deal as one of Munster's highest paid players anyway? The argument here is basically 2-3 year contracts are too long, but that is a risk you often have to take to secure the player. Some players choose shorter contracts to take on more risk themselves (and it doesn't always work).

Dubinusa

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120119615#Comment_120119615

I think that's a problem. Not discarding the lads who aren't performing. History and experience are not the end all.

Murray is predictable. Ireland were predictable at the last world cup. The squad was beaten long before we set sail. Schmidt relied on players who were out of form and were poorly coached, imo. That squad needed an infusion of different idea and play.

Farrell looks to have an adaptable type of squad. The squad is probably set and there won't be many bolters.

There's really no benifit for having experience if that experience is not a winning type of experience.

salmocab

I suspect some of the central contracts are used to off set costs for the province, Murray’s might very much be to not have him dropped back onto munsters books. Aki’s might be nearly as a way of paying him top money without him having to leave a poorer province for better money elsewhere.

starkid

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120120457#Comment_120120457

but they aren't just an accounting tool. thats just one aspect. there's definite clues they pay more in some guise, and hold more prestige.

“To get a central contract, if you look at the history, you show continuity at this level to be a top class international player,” said Andy Farrell yesterday.

“That’s the remit that everyone understands and that’s what we stick to, (not) just because somebody pops up and plays four or five games that’s really good as far as international rugby is concerned. It’s about consistency at this level to prove your worth, and I suppose that’s how it always was and that’s how it will continue.”

why is Murray defacto staying a highest paid player on anybodys book. his form fell off a cliff after the Lions tour. and was waning before that.

with the latter its good to see Munster, and indeed now Connacht be ruthless. i wonder can Ireland follow suit..

aloooof

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120120540#Comment_120120540

What do you expect him to say, tho? He's never going to come out and say "na, they don't really matter, it's ultimately the IRFU paying for everthing at the end of the day anyways".

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120120540#Comment_120120540

They may well pay more, but for the overwhelming part they are the overwhelmingly given to the players who the provinces would be paying the most for anyway.

It is not relevant how those players are playing now - it is relevant how they were playing at the time of the deal.

Look at the provinces experience of hiring NIQs. There are an absolute stack of players who came over here to steal a living because they didn't perform to the level expected of them. There is no reason to think you wouldn't be in basically the exact same situation.