Ireland Team Talk XII: Farrell's First Fifteen

sydthebeat

im sure every Scottish fan would love if flaky finn had sextons drive and determination. That post is one of the worst drivel ive ever read in the forum.

Buer

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120068144#Comment_120068144

Have they tried turning Sexton off and back on again?

Neil3030

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120068216#Comment_120068216

This relates to the key issue for me, which is that Leinster's reliance on Sexton can be managed an awful lot more effectively than Ireland's reliance on him. Leinster used the autumn URC games to stress test new systems that were more direct and put less reliance on split-decision, heads-up distribution from 10, and yielded that fruit when they went to Paris recently and took Racing apart with Ross Byrne at the helm. The key to that game's success was Byrne starting 6 of the 9 games between September and early December. That allowed him start at least one competitive game (in most cases 2-4) with every member of the Racing-game starting pack. But it was less about him learning to play behind them, and more about them getting used to their new roles in front of him. And these can be incredibly subtle changes. Fewer on field instructions. Less on field correction of errors. Fewer audibles. More need to adhere to a prescribed game plan. Etc. Etc.

Leinster didn't throw those URC games to develop this new system; the games were competitive, but winnable. It was a perfect laboratory. Ireland rarely get such a luxury. They are stuck playing the system that best suits their best 10 because they must win every game, and every game (Italy and maybe one AI aside) has tiny margins for error. There's no other time to develop an alternative system and and stress test it with a different 10 guiding traffic.

So at the risk of responding to a point that nobody made, I'll just be more general and say that if our best 10 is a 37-year-old, who does get injured, it's not the end of the world that this Irish team now faces a Six Nations, prior to the RWC, without him.

Clegg

The earlier unhinged rant aside, I think Sexton has become somewhat underrated incredibly enough. He's the best NH 10 since Wilkinson and I honestly think his all round game is markedly better than the other Jonny.

He's Ireland's greatest ever player too.

TRC10

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120068535#Comment_120068535

They are stuck playing the system that best suits their best 10 because they must win every game

Again, this is untrue. Ireland's system is Ireland's system, and Sexton would be Ireland's best 10 by a mile no matter what system Ireland play. And most would agree it's the system that best suits Carbery as well so the argument that it's a system issue doesn't really hold up. It's simply a quality issue. We played a very different game under Joe and Sexton was still the clear 1st choice.

Stop framing this as a situation Ireland have put themselves in. We just have one excellent 10 and a lot of very average 10s.

it's not the end of the world that this Irish team now faces a Six Nations, prior to the RWC, without him.

It's not the end of the world if you don't think the 6N is important. If you do think the 6N is important and want Ireland to win trophies, then it's pretty bad.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120068535#Comment_120068535

Ross Byrne has been winning big European games and Pro14 knockout games at 10 for Leinster for years - you make it sound like this is something that only was discovered in the Racing game.

Dubinusa

Sexton gets the skirts up again! G'wan Johnny.

Neil3030

This new quoting system sucks. Bold font it is.

TRC10: Again, this is untrue. Ireland's system is Ireland's system, and Sexton would be Ireland's best 10 by a mile no matter what system Ireland play. And most would agree it's the system that best suits Carbery as well so the argument that it's a system issue doesn't really hold up. It's simply a quality issue. We played a very different game under Joe and Sexton was still the clear 1st choice.

Stop framing this as a situation Ireland have put themselves in. We just have one excellent 10 and a lot of very average 10s.

I'd not only argue that the current system is designed around Sexton, it was probably designed in large part by Sexton. Why wouldn't any team maximise return from their best asset? It just gets increasingly risky as that asset gets older. Going back to my post, I described how a team looked ahead, and used competitive rugby strategically to develop an additional attacking system to diversify risk and remain competitive when they must play a more average 10. Ireland now have a chance to do that, and it's not the end of the world.

TRC10: It's not the end of the world if you don't think the 6N is important. If you do think the 6N is important and want Ireland to win trophies, then it's pretty bad.

It's just not that absolute. I can consider the 6N incredibly important, but still see some degree of value in not having Sexton available - in a single year and under a given set of circumstances. It's also not the end of the world if you envisage International rugby to continue beyond Sexton's retirement, i.e., from ~November of this year onwards.

Neil3030

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120068797#Comment_120068797

List them.

sydthebeat

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120068535#Comment_120068535

So at the risk of responding to a point that nobody made, I'll just be more general and say that if our best 10 is a 37-year-old, who does get injured, it's not the end of the world that this Irish team now faces a Six Nations, prior to the RWC, without him.

unfortunately it has been shown to be true that more game time as the irish senior 10, does not a better player make.

our hopes of a genuine successor to sexton now lie in the hands of an unproven 22 year old who has less than 10 starts as an outhalf.

pretty much every other pretender to the throne has been given decent minutes as ireland 10, and none have put enough of their own stamp on the jersey to be considered a genuine alternative to sexton. The closest we ever had in all of sextons reign is plying his trade across the water, never to return.

TRC10

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120068813#Comment_120068813

I'd not only argue that the current system is designed around Sexton, it was probably designed in large part by Sexton.

Do you have any evidence for this or are you just speculating? Because that's a pretty big statement. Ireland's "system" isn't particularly revolutionary. It's not too dissimilar to what Japan have been doing for years as well as a lot of the Super Rugby sides. We've just been doing it very well (pre-November). Largely because we have a very good out half. But I'm interested to hear what evidence you have that it was all designed by Sexton.

It's also not the end of the world if you envisage International rugby to continue beyond Sexton's retirement, i.e., from ~November of this year onwards.

All the more reasons to make hay why the sun shines and win a trophy (which we haven't done since 2018) while our best ever out half is still around, because we're in for a bit of a dry spell when he's gone. This isn't me doing the incredibly cringeworthy and annoying Jamie Heaslip style Sexton worship ("he's the G.O.A.T." etc). I get why that rubs people up the wrong way. It annoys me too. But the simple reality is Sexton is Ireland's best 10. Not because we've "built the team around him". Because he just is.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120068822#Comment_120068822

All game's he started, unless otherwise noted:

In 2021/22 season:

Leinster 45 Bath 20 - European Cup pool game

Leinster 89 Montpellier 7 - European Cup pool game

Munster 19 Leinster 34 - Pro14

Leinster 76 Glasgow 14 - Pro14 QF

plus all the other Pro14 games he started and played in over that season, where he was Leinster's second most utilised player by minutes

In 2020/21:

Montpellier 14 Leinster 35 - European Cup pool game

Leinster 35 Northampton 19 - European Cup pool game

Exeter 22 Leinster 34 - European Cup QF (Byrne replaced Sexton here after 27 mins)

In 2019/20:

Leinster 50 Northampton 21 - European Cup pool game

Leinster 42 Lyon 14- European Cup pool game

Benetton 0 Leinster 18 - European Cup pool game

Munster 6 Leinster 13 - Pro14 game

Leinster 27 Ulster 5 - Pro14 final

In 2018/19:

Leinster 29 Toulouse 13 - European Cup pool game

Wasps 19 Leinster 37 - European Cup pool game

Leinster 21 Ulster 18 - European Cup QF

Leinster 24 Munster 9 - Pro14 Semi Final

In 2017/18:

Leinster 24 Montpellier 17 - European Cup pool game

Leinster 22 Exeter 17 - European Cup pool game (replaced Sexton after 2 mins)

Montpellier 14 Leinster 23 - European Cup pool game

Interested Observer

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120068797#Comment_120068797

Exactly and all those games prove it, going back years. Byrne seems to have to complete trust of the Leinster management and it's crazy to think this is something that developed this season only.

Neil3030

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120068857#Comment_120068857

But how do you propose "making hay", he's injured, is he not?

I'm not calling for him to be dropped if healthy.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120068908#Comment_120068908

Fairly comprehensive proof over a seven-year career that Leinster have seen Byrne's ceiling at around Heineken Cup pool level, which I think is fair, and roughly where I would have ranked him myself. He only featured in tougher games if necessary (e.g., the injury to Sexton against Exeter).

Meanwhile, it's fairly clear that the loss to Bulls in last season's URC semi-final shaped Leinster's strategy and coaching in the months following. For example, we've seen them develop the tap-n-go from 5m out, something Bulls hurt them with. The pathway to the URC final is no longer a foregone conclusion.

So put these two things together: a backup 10 with a lower ceiling than they'd like, and a recent experience that gave them a coaching wake-up call. To go back to your original point, where you said "you make it sound like this is something that only was discovered in the Racing game", I'd say that yes, it's almost certainly the case that Leinster have put greater emphasis more recently on this new direct style, I'd say that yes, the motivation was there on two fronts. One was chronic (Byrne), one was acute (Bulls).

fitzgea1

Personally I think we should put our best team out for 6 Nations and just focus on winning it. There's 14 other players on the team as well and they need to be playing with Sexton to play at their best. For the coaches I'd imagine that giving the players confidence and belief in the systems is more important than giving Carberry or Byrne some more game time.

Never understand why this debate always revolves around Sexton. What happens if Furlong gets injured for World Cup or Ringrose. We won't be getting past quarter final without them...

AbusesToilets

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120068587#Comment_120068587

He's the second best OH imo, behind Carter. Wilkinson has the WC, but he didn't have the burden of leadership and was very dependant on players like Catt to steer him at times.

TRC10

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120069378#Comment_120069378

The best performance I've ever seen from an Irish rugby team (3rd test v NZ), was without Ringrose.

We have high quality alternatives in the centre. That's the key difference. And Bealham has shown that he can hold his own against the top sides at TH.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120069295#Comment_120069295

Fairly comprehensive proof over a seven-year career that Leinster have seen Byrne's ceiling at around Heineken Cup pool level, which I think is fair, and roughly where I would have ranked him myself. He only featured in tougher games if necessary (e.g., the injury to Sexton against Exeter).

No, I don't think that's fair. It's just that in those cases he lost out to an all-time great 10 in Sexton. Obviously every team is going to pick the best player available. Picking Sexton over Byrne for those games doesn't mean they don't think Byrne can play at that level, just that they think Sexton obviously gives them the better chance of success.

He did start a lot of Pro14 knock outs (including semis and finals) and would have played a lot of minutes in the games where Sexton started too.

Leinster have tweaked up their gameplan a little bit this season, but not fundamentally. We've become a little more direct up front (partially as a result of the inclusion of a guy like Jason Jenkins who adds more bulk to the tight 5).

Tweaks to their strategy on quick tap penalties doesn't reflect some broad change in philosophy; it's more a case of teams seeing something they like and working on it and adapting it. Leinster were an extremely effective team in opposition 22 last season and remain one this season.

I posted some stats on this a couple of days ago on the Leinster thread, but there is no fundamental difference this season in Leinster's try scored, points scored, points & tries conceded, turnovers or penalties conceded (which indicates ruck resourcing in attack and defence), or average metres per carry (identical YoY).

You're pushing a narrative here, but there's nothing to support it really. The Racing blow out was not much different to the sort of blow out wins Leinster have had in European Cup group stages for years.

Meanwhile, it's fairly clear that the loss to Bulls in last season's URC semi-final shaped Leinster's strategy and coaching in the months following.

I think this is overblown in significance too.

Leinster played abysmally on the day and it was a rare day where Dan Sheehan couldn't hit the side of a barn out of touch. Leinster turned over the ball 3 separate times from line outs inside 15m from the Bulls line. The game also was played substantially under torrential rain which definitely favoured the South Africans.

Despite that, Leinster lost the game by a point, and if the game was 10 mins longer would have won it (had all the momentum at the end of the game).

Leinster outgained the Bulls in metres carried (456m v 257m), scored 4 tries to the Bulls' 3, and the Bulls made more tackles (indicating the pressure they were under).

Leinster turned the ball over 18 times and conceded 12 penalties, those were the decisive factors.

The notion that they were badly exposed by some sort of vastly superior style in that game is way overblown.

Akrasia

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120068370#Comment_120068370

Do you think the 6 nations squad should train for the Wales game assuming Sexton will be fit, or should they prepare with another starting 10 and bring in Sexton for Wales if he turns out to be Wolverine and recovers from a cheek fracture in 4 weeks?

fitzgea1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120069395#Comment_120069395

I don't think we have anyone close to Ringrose at the moment in terms of quality, he's head and shoulders above everyone else this season. Same with Furlong, if we're playing a World Cup QF against France or NZ we're not winning without him.

Neil3030

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120069437#Comment_120069437

Pushing what narrative? That Leinster's coaches adaptively learn from experience?

I would have ranked that fairly low down the list of potentially controversial takes, I must say.

But this is the Ireland thread. And if Johnny Sexton cannot play for Ireland due to injury, my point still stands. We can turn that negative into a positive.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120069443#Comment_120069443

Do you think Andy Farrell and the coaching staff are morons?

Do you actually think you've got some level of penetrating insight here when you say there is a chance that Sexton won't in fact make the Wales game, while the coaches will just take it as read (ignoring the fact that they have direct access to the players and the medical data) that he'll be good to go and put zero contingency plans in place?

You seem to base this theory on your earlier (incorrect) theory that this happened for the Australia game, but ignored the fact that the injury he sustained at the end of the SA game wasn't the same injury he had sustained in the warm up for the Australia game.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120069489#Comment_120069489

You've stated that Leinster have tweaked a gameplan because: a backup 10 with a lower ceiling than they'd like ; when there isn't any evidence to support that.

TRC10

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120069464#Comment_120069464

Nah. We could beat France or NZ with an Aki/Henshaw midfield pairing. Ringrose would be a loss for sure. But Aki and Henshaw are proven test match animals and top class players. We'd be weakened, but still pretty strong. Most sides would love to have our depth at centre. Wales and England being two prime examples.

We don't have anywhere near that sort of depth at 10. Sexton goes down and the drop off in quality is substantial.

fitzgea1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120069530#Comment_120069530

I'm not sure Aki is the same player he was tbh, I'd be worried if we need him. But hopefully I'm proved wrong in the 6 Nations.

With Sexton, the drop off is substantial but it ain't gonna get much better whether he plays 6 Nations or not

ulsteru20s

Frisch to me is an international centre. Has basically everything including size. We also know that farrell can jump guys up charts.

Another guy I’d like to see move up is tom stewart. Past Herring unfortunately but i love his upside and he would be a great third hooker.

AbusesToilets

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120069592#Comment_120069592

I'd rather McCloskey, think he's in better form and is a more capable player

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120069669#Comment_120069669

Yeah, I'd agree on both.

I really like Stewart. It's really unfortunate for him that he's come on the scene at the same time as Sheehan (who looks like a generational talent) and the also exceptionally talented and athletic Kelleher. Stewart does look like a guy though who should be included and capped.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120069443#Comment_120069443

You don't have a notion what goes on in camp and neither do I. All the outhalf options are going to be involved in training, it's not all about Sexton.

The medics and coaches will make an informed assessment as to whether he'll be fit to train by the start of camp and what his chances are of being able to take full part and then play against Wales. They'll then make an informed decision and pass that to Andy Farrell who will subsequently pick the team.

These are actual, qualified, professionals - they're not going to be making assumptions (like you did regarding Sexton's injury before the Aus game) and if the recovery time is 4 weeks then it's 4 weeks. Unless you're a orthopaedic surgeon how do you know what the damage, surgical intervention and recovery times are?

Seriously, you really are making a complete show of yourself here.

arsebiscuits1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120069443#Comment_120069443

Wolverine wouldn't have broken his cheek in the first place due to an Adamantium infused skeleton...

Also your post has quite a skeptical tone (which would be on brand for you regarding anything to do with Sexton anyway...) but you realise facial injuries are quite recoverable?

Garry Ringrose missed 6 and subsequently 4 weeks with back to back broken jaw injuries.

Brad Barrittt played against Leinster in the 2018 HC QF 5 days after cheekbone surgery of his own.

So I don't see any reason to assume Sexton isn't fully in the picture ahead of the start of the 6 Nations

EDIT: How did I manage to forget BOD breaking his cheekbone (to which he still has a visible scar to this day) against Bayone on 18th August 2007 only to return against Namibia 3 weeks later.

So yea. I'm not worried