Ireland Team Talk XII: Farrell's First Fifteen

snotboogie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120144074#Comment_120144074

We have barely seen Edogbo play pro rugby and all of his minutes were early in this season right on the back of a 12 month injury. At lower levels he was far more aggressive and was a huge ball carrier, playing pro he has understandably looked a lot more tentative. What’s been so encouraging about him is, like you said, despite this, how he has always found a way to make an impact in a game.

I think Edogbo has by a distance the highest ceiling of any lock in Ireland, he’s a natural 120kg, a sick athlete and he has a great feel for the game. If he gets a run of games I think we will see the ball carrying this season. The major question for me is his health, he has constantly been injured since joining the academy, hopefully that’s just bad luck.

ulsteru20s

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120144274#Comment_120144274

Three penalties to 4 tackles in 49 minutes is crap. I’m sorry, that’s not good. Home fans can always rationalize away guys who give away lots of penalties.

Moloney had more tackles in 31 minutes than McCarthy, so its not like its part of your scheme that his position doesn’t have much tackle responsibility.

Kleyn had 17 tackles vs toulouse.

Former Former Former

What's the argument here? That a 21 year old second row isn't the complete package yet? That a young guy might need a few more games to adjust to top level rugby?

Is this a surprise? What's the issue?

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120144356#Comment_120144356

Yeah, but once again you're ignoring the context. One of the penalties is where he's a ball carrier, and he held on because Ala'alatoa didn't clear the Racing flanker. Is that indicative of some fundamental failing of Joe McCarthy's?

The penalty in the lineout was harsh. Go and look at it and tell me it was a clear penalty?

This is more like you're just pushing a narrative that the actual stats don't support.

McCarthy has had plenty of days with massive tackle numbers. Your numbers on Kleyn's tackle stats today just indicate that Munster were under quite a degree of defensive pressure for a lot of the game. Toulouse had 55% possession and 60% territory, Munster made 166 tackles. Of course Kleyn had big tackle numbers.

Molony had 1 extra tackle compared to McCarthy. No Leinster player had more than 7 tackles, and the team collectively only had 82 tackles. It was a comfortable win, I don't know what you think tackle stats are telling you here.

Leinster had 60% possession on Saturday, of course McCarthy didn't make as many tackles as Kleyn.When the teams played in Thomond on Dec 26th, McCarthy had 16 tackles to Kleyn's 8.

He has other strengths too though. He has the highest metres per carry average of any lock in Irish rugby this season (more than two and a half times as high as Kleyn, and 2.8x that of Edogbo off a similar number of carries.

ulsteru20s

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120144367#Comment_120144367

The issue is that the world cup is less than a year away. Just choose the better player and let him get used to the system. The young guy is probably not going to get a few games to develop in time even if that’s all it took.

dublin49

can a powerful lock allow a mediocre prop hold there own in the scrum or alternatively can an "athletic" lock reduce the effectiveness of a powerful scrummager.I ask as I feel we should adopt a more horses for courses approach ,so against France ,Eng ,SA play kleyn and another big unit for 60 minutes to prevent a scrum meltdown and against the rest play the best guy in their positions.I have been challenged before on this thread about this point but today was a good example where Munster held there own in the scrum and that prevented Toulouse from getting away from them.I have watched Leinster being penalised at every scrum when Alatoa is on the pitch ,this is IMO unstainable.I feel we need to give up some of the benefits of our Athletic Locks and pick some bulk against the aformentioned scrummaging nations.Last year was a case in point,parking the legality of Genge,the scrum kept England in a match they should have never had a shout in.

ulsteru20s

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120144388#Comment_120144388

McCarthy has barely played. He’s had one full game and then mostly 30 minutes or less. He’s also mostly played in dominant packs, for short periods of time. If that has a depressive effect on his cumulative stats, it will enhance his rate stats. In other words, he’s like the 5th power guy anyone is worrying about in that pack. Or maybe higher than that.

Kleyn on the other hand is one of two/three power guys who are ever in the munster pack.. and has to play massive minutes because they literally dont have a third lock healthy.

As an aside, Edogbo doesn’t look like a good carrier to me. So, maybe those stats are indicitive of his talent. He looks really good at the breakdown offensively and defensively. I think that’s his strength so far. Producing quick ball and slowing it down. Him and McCarthy could be a good combo post world cup.

molloyjh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120142508#Comment_120142508

Every loss is disappointing. Even those with positives to take from them. I reckon France are, at least arguably, the best side in the world at the moment. At worst there’s very little between the top 3 (SA, France and ourselves). It sometimes only takes small things one way or the other to define results in these games. For me, you’ve always got to give wiggle room to allow for those small things, some of which will be in our control and some not. Take Racings second try yesterday. It came from a charge down that put guys back on side. Bad luck, but not bad play. These things happen. And if you don’t allow for them within your expectation then you’re not being very fair or very objective.

We absolutely should be targeting a GS. But we aren’t in control of all the factors that are at play. And the players are not robots incapable of variable form or human error. So saying GS or bust leaves no margin for error, bad luck or anything else that can go wrong along the way, within our control or not. And those sort of polar expectations inevitably just lead to polar opinions after the fact. And we’ve both had years of experience with those here!

The most important thing is a trophy for me. We haven’t won one under Farrell. I think we need to ahead of the RWC. And doing it in a RWC year would be a big boost. A GS is a nice to have on top of that. But I don’t see us losing badly to France so if we do lose, I expect it will be close and we would still back ourselves against them in the RWC. And that’s more important than a GS for me this year.

ulsteru20s

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120144469#Comment_120144469

Yea, the second row can shore up weaker props but i’m not sure if irish management would prioritize that.

molloyjh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120144477#Comment_120144477

Kleyn cannot play the game that Ireland need him to. He doesn’t have that skill set. McCarthy does, albeit he’s a raw young talent. He isn’t the only raw young talent that Farrell has backed ahead of a more experienced alternative over the last few years either. And far more have panned out than not.

ulsteru20s

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120144516#Comment_120144516

The things that Ryan does well that are essential to ireland’s offense operating are things Kleyn can do, especially at the breakdown.

He obviously can’t do all or he would already be a shoe in. You’d have to grab alot of lineout work from someone else.

Dubinusa

Ireland did fairly well last year. The pack was cohesive, fast and well organized. Other sides wore down. We weren't perfect, not even close. Throwing a big hefty lad in v certain teams wouldn't work for us, imo. At what cost? You remove a superior player for a bigger grunt. At this stage, it would be foolish.

Thornbury is great for the line out. He's not much of a carrying threat. Good player though, like Ross Molony, he's not powerful enough. Edogbo has potential. So does McCarthy. Farrell has picked his pieces, barring injury.

ulsteru20s

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120144601#Comment_120144601

I think you are probably right. I think our cohesion is a really big advantage but it will be lessened at a world cup when every other team has a long camp to get ready. However, i like that we really do try to go all out and win most of the time.

Dubinusa

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120144647#Comment_120144647

There's no doubt our draw is brutal. Farrell at least has instilled new schemes and a different approach. There's obviously problem areas but, hopefully they can be fixed.

I do think the southern hemisphere sides have a wee bit of advantage. The rugby championship will give them a good roll out prior to the world cup

For us, I think we will see Beirne and Baird used as flankers in the near future . It's worth a shot, imo. Best big lads on the field.

Interested Observer

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120144388#Comment_120144388

Point proven, Kleyn obviously melted down against Leinster. I'm not sure what that means but it's the only explanation.

Former Former Former

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120144454#Comment_120144454

I think this argument only holds water if the "better player" is properly top level international standard. That doesn't apply to Kleyn or Molony, neither of whom belong at an RWC to be honest.

Farrell has done a great job in identifying talent, I'd give him some leeway to see where McCarthy can go. You say the "young guy is probably not going to get a few games". With only four locks in the squad, he's one injury or suspension away from another cap.

ulsteru20s

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120144679#Comment_120144679

Fair enough. If it works out, its genius.

sydthebeat

Is "melted down" a new phrase??

I've seen it been used a few times over the last few days. In my lexicon if one player 'melted' another it means they hit them hard. People can be "melts" as in head wreckers.

I can't say I've ever heard of a player "melting down" in a game before, even if the meaning is obvious.

ulsteru20s

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120144840#Comment_120144840

I don’t think so. Maybe it’s a north american thing? I’ve lived here for a while. Or much longer than a while.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120144504#Comment_120144504

And if Leinster had lost the match against Racing due to that stroke of fortune that would have been unacceptable. The best teams, which we are aiming to be, recover from such things.

"Every loss is disappointing" is simultaneously true and a bit of a cop out. After the year we had last year, the match performance in Paris last year, the clear build up to an imminent tournament and the fact that this is the biggest test facing us before that all adds to the importance and expectation for this match. We need to win it. Yes. the most important thing is the trophy, but I also don't think we're winning that with a loss to France anyway.

I don't go into every 6N, or close to it, with a "win it or its a failure" mindset. This one I am, and I suspect the team think similarly. I'll obviously be pleased with a championship, but I honestly will be disappointed with anything short of a GS. Its not often you can say that, which is a testament to the team.

stephen_n

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120144356#Comment_120144356

You claim he’s not European level, yet he benched for the final last year. I think the coaches in Leinster and Ireland might have a better idea than you or I about what his current level is. He makes mistakes but so does every second row. A low tackle count in one game is not really a stick to beat him with but work away.

ulsteru20s

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120144852#Comment_120144852

He benched in the final and the leinster coaching staff identified it as an area to upgrade in the offseason. They didn’t need Jenkins if he was at that level. They could have signed someone to slot in behind him instead.

So, if we are citing them, don’t they kind of agree?

stephen_n

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120144883#Comment_120144883

At 20 years of age he benched in a European final when Moloney was fit. Jenkins is on a 1 year deal. So maybe they don’t consider him the finished article at 21, no surprise really. They clearly see him as good enough to select ahead of a vastly more experienced lock. One who was on the edge of Irish squads himself on his form last year.

aloooof

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120144388#Comment_120144388

If all of that could be normalised to a single stat that accounts for per/minute and possesion %, I think that'd be extremely useful tbh.

(Fwiw, I'm not a massive fan of the metres per-carry-metric generally. If one player has made 18m off 3 carries but another has made 80m off 20 carries, it seems to me the latter is far more beneficial to the team).

aloooof

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120144933#Comment_120144933

And was given 4 mins off the bench? (I'm not criticising him btw, but I'm not sure that's a great example).

Interested Observer

Desperate stuff here really.

aloooof

Fwiw, I don't expect to see it happening but I'd have no isue at all if Kleyn had been called up. He's having a brilliant season, which is all the more impressive when you consider Munster's injury crisis at lock.

ulsteru20s

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120144933#Comment_120144933

No one is saying he isn’t talented. I just don’t think its a stretch to say he isnt european level as of right now.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120144951#Comment_120144951

Yeah, that's why I generally don't think it tells you a whole lot on a game by game basis. It's why when I collate data like this for analysis, you'd run it multiple ways, and typically have a look at position groups with minimum 20 or minimum 50 carries etc, to factor out guys who've just had a big game or two. But over the course of the season and a larger sample size it obviously does.

For example, I think most people would objectively say Ulster lack power, ballast and carriers in their tight 5, and the carrying stats would 100% reinforce that.

All of Ulster's props are averaging under 1.5m per carry (with 4 of 7 averaging under 1.0m per carry). Average for the overall group is 0.8m per carry. At Munster, the average collectively is better at 1.1m per carry across the full group, with only two players under the death zone level of less than 1.0m per carry (Josh Wycherley and Stephen Archer). At Leinster, the average across all of their props is 1.7m, and no player has lower than 1.1m (Tadhg Furlong, who has only carried 9 times all season).

Those stats aren't meaningless, because they reinforce what people's eyes are telling them. We're 16 games into a season now as well, so there is enough data there for it to be meaningful.

stephen_n

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120144983#Comment_120144983

I don’t think anyone would disagree, based on his form. Though his lack of involvement under Andy Farrell would suggest it’s unlikely. If there was an injury it’s more likely Treadwell would be back in.