Ireland Team Talk XII: Farrell's First Fifteen

stephen_n

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120252485#Comment_120252485

Maybe because it’s rugby and any game against a tier 1 side is never a gimmie. Yes we are definitely favorites for the remaining games and deservedly so. However on any given day, all teams are capable of under performing. Even the NZ of 2015 had off days. That’s not even taking into account the possibility of red card. Or even a mad interpretation to scrum laws by a referee.

It’s reasonable to expect that we should, It’s unreasonable to say if it doesn’t happen it’s a failure.

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120252561#Comment_120252561

There is no reason for error at this stage barring some incredible injury crisis that leaves us fielding an unrecognisable side.

We're going to Murrayfield, big deal. We're miles ahead of Scotland, miles. 2 wins against a struggling England and an absolutely hopeless Wales does not suddenly make them a threat.

Not winning a slam at this stage would be a choke IMO barring some absolutely exceptional circumstances.

It's fairly clear that this side is coping far better with the best-team-in-the-world title than we did in 2019. There is no sign of drop off. The World Cup is still a long ways away, so maybe it'll happen before then, but there is nothing to suggest it's going to happen in the next 4 weeks and we will put these 3 teams to bed.

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120252579#Comment_120252579

"Any game against a tier 1 side is never a gimme" is a tired cliche, it's the sort of nonsense the teams feed to the media when they're trotting out the same old crap in the press conferences. Ireland having an off day so bad that they lose any of these 3 games would be very, very concerning.

Leinster will be playing the Dragons next week and it'll be the same old nonsense in the press conference. "They're dangerous", "no easy games in this league" etc etc etc, but if Leinster lost to the Dragons it would be absolutely remarkable. It's of course possible, if the stars aligned and there was some unbelievable set of circumstances, but it's not definitely going to happen in reality. Ireland are in a very similar position now.

Ireland not winning a slam from this position is a failure. I suspect a large part of why people don't want to say this is because they are reluctant to put themselves in a position where they might have to say something critical down the line.

The constant hedging of bets is very boring, we get enough of that from the coaches, players and ex-players on the telly.

Yeah_Right

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120252485#Comment_120252485

You're right. From this point in the tournament, a GS should be expectation. It would be a massive **** up if Ireland fail to win the GS from here.

I think the issue some posters have with TRC is that they were saying a GS was the bare minimum expected before the tournament had kicked off.

TRC10

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120252199#Comment_120252199

TRC is just hoping for a loss so he can say how right he was the entire time.

What a load of complete and utter bullsh*t this statement is.

I have never said Ireland won't win a GS. In fact, I've always thought they would, even before the Wales game. So how the f*ck do you figure I'll be claiming to have been "right the entire time" if they don't?

But I do think anything less than a GS in a year with France at home, would be a massive blow for this team. I've said it from the start and I stand by it.

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120252619#Comment_120252619

Yes, before the tournament there was a few unknowns and I agree saying GS or bust in January was wrong.

1. Would Ireland maintain their form from 2022?
2. How big a problem were France going to be for us.

We have the answer to these, the path ahead is clear.

Grand Slam or bust.

phog

Are we really afraid of going to Edinburg? We're number one in the world, a well earned No 1 yet posters are being cautious about Scotland.

The hard work was done v France, once we won that the GS is on and unless we suffer an injury crisis or a rush of cards somewhere then I'd be very disappointed in not winning a GS this year.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120252561#Comment_120252561

It does account for them - it just acknowledges that we should overcome any such issues or it would be a significant disappointment. Bar the bubonic plague hitting the camp I would not be accepting of any injury crises derailing us at this stage (and we've shown already they haven't).

You could easily make the same degree of caveats to suggest that we should be setting the minimum expectation anywhere.

While I don't doubt some are waiting in the wings to pounce on a defeat as always, I think its perfectly rational and sane for any true Irish supporter to consider a GS to be the minimum for a successful 6N.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120252612#Comment_120252612

We should win the slam but I don't think it's unreasonable to be hesitant about declaring it after just two games and I don't think that hesitance has much of anything to do with posters worrying about having to be critical.

Ireland teams in the past have gotten up for one off fixtures and put it up to far superior teams with much better track records. We won't lose to Italy and as much as Scotland are looking better I don't fear them. England have a massive pool of talent and are going to improve, and if it's a grand slam game the final weekend I fully expect them to throw absolutely everything at us as a marker before the world cup.

I wouldn't dismiss that threat personally so I'm not really thinking about the slam for the time being. Similarly - what if Scotland beat France? Are we all going to still be as confident as we are now?

For the most part I think this all comes down to how risk averse you are. I see plenty of risk in two of the final three fixtures but obviously some others do not or don't to the same degree. Leaving aside the obvious trolls I don't see anything wrong with the confidence or hesitance on display - we all want the slam and I think most are reasonably confident we'll do it.

gameoverdude

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120252734#Comment_120252734

Agree completely. Scotland hasn't been tested, so am cautiously optimistic away from home.

Former Former Former

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120252591#Comment_120252591

I think we will win the GS and we absolutely should win the GS.

But saying things like "Grand Slam or Bust" are exactly what I'm talking about. Nothing is bust if we don't win the GS. It doesn't mean we're chokers.

Put it this way. Ireland are 8/13 to win the GS. Those are the odds for something that is very likely but not a sure thing. For context, Leinster are 1/100 to beat the Dragons tomorrow.

I'm not hedging anything. I'll be very disappointed if don't do it, but equally I'm not going to march on the IRFU if we don't.

Dubinusa

We lose Henderson or Ryan? Porter? Injury will play a role. But, we will win the championship. We should do the slam.

It's been a fine start to this 6nations. This team is mentally tough and playing really well.

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120252954#Comment_120252954

What's this march on the IRFU about?

Not winning a grand slam from here is choking, barring some exceptional circumstances. I mean, a 6n win is great and all, but it would be an underachievement if that's what we end up with given the position we've put ourselves in.

Honestly, if we are outplayed by any of Italy, Scotland or England in the next few weeks and end up losing it will be an absolutely terrible result. This is when it really matters, best team in the world, high expectations with a clear path to a grand slam. If we fall short now then we have a big problem.

I think this team is far too good, both in terms of how they play but also how they cope mentally with games, to not win a grand slam from here.

aloooof

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120252734#Comment_120252734

I’d agree with most all of that Venjur. On this bit in particular:

England have a massive pool of talent and are going to improve, and if it's a grand slam game the final weekend I fully expect them to throw absolutely everything at us as a marker before the world cup.

Some podcast during the week mentioned this possibility. We (and other teams) have gotten ourselves up for big performances in the past to deny England a slam on the last day. I think England would relish a similar opportunity.

phog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120253342#Comment_120253342

And without putting words into Awec's mouth I think that's where he gets the choke bit from.

As the world No1 rugby team we're well capable of beating England, I mean Scotland beat them in Twickenham. So if we allow them beat us here in the Aviva then that's on us. The team takes the blame for that.

Podge_irl

If we lose to England at home it will be a massive screwup from Ireland and utterly taint it even if we win the championship.

Yeah_Right

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120253342#Comment_120253342

Just hope Ireland don't do anything stupid like film a Grand Slam Champions commercial before the last match.

fitz

I think most people are saying the same thing in different ways and arguing over semantic differences.

Based on our recent performances, we should be expecting to win a slam from this position.

BUT.

All it takes is a momentary lapse in concentration for there to be a red card incident. I happen to think we could still overcome the remaining teams even with red card in the mix, but there are so many things that could happen that are outside of the team's control, it's a little silly to say missing out on the slam will be because we choked.

If we suddenly dip in performance and lose as a result, then yes, that'd be choking.

As long as we maintain the current performance levels, I think the wins look after themselves, but if some circumstances beyond our control prevent that, it's not the end of the world. Disappointing? For sure, but honestly, I think people are arguing over this just because there so little else to argue about atm.

We're stringing together consistent top level performances with little signs of stopping, and doing it all while missing key players. As long as we keep up that trend, it's going to take something special to stop us, and if that happens, fair enough.

Podge_irl

Red cards are poor discipline and I hope we have that under control as well (its certainly not "outside of our control").

TRC10

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120252954#Comment_120252954

Nothing is bust if we don't win the GS. It doesn't mean we're chokers.

Yes it does

Interested Observer

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120253973#Comment_120253973

This is just thick. We haven't seen the games yet. England or Scotland could produce a once-in-a-decade performance and beat us, it's sport and no team has the right to win every game, it would be fabulous if you could even attempt to understand that. Did France choke on Saturday, given they hadn't lost a game since late 2021 and were going in as Grand Slam champs?

Dubinusa

What if Scotland are.....good? What if they've made gains? A little sallow period and who knows?

stephen_n

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120252612#Comment_120252612

Comparing England to the Dragons pretty much invalidates any argument you are trying to make.

Losing to Italy would be a poor result for sure. If we were off form against Scotland, they are more than capable of making it difficult for us to win. If England play to their potential and we are off form. We could most certainly lose to them.

If you can’t accept there is context to everything. Then of course you can view it as a failure but a lot can happen in 80 mins of a test match.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120254082#Comment_120254082

If we are off form against Scotland, that's pretty much the definition of us failing.

TRC10

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120254021#Comment_120254021

 Did France choke on Saturday

France were away from home against a very good team.

The Grand Slam is ours to lose. Losing to Italy, Scotland or England, barring exceptional circumstances like the entire squad falling ill, would be a choke. If we can't win a slam from this position, what hope do we have at the world cup?

Former Former Former

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120253049#Comment_120253049

OK, let's for argument's sake say that losing the GS is a major setback.

How would you characterise winning the GS?

stephen_n

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120254164#Comment_120254164

I suppose you could say that. Do you believe Leinster failed against the Bulls last season?

ersatz

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120254275#Comment_120254275

Ireland are on the cusp of being a team who everyone expects to win no matter who they are playing. That's the sort of aura NZ have often had going into matches where most opposition team's are beaten before the ball is kicked, same with some French teams of the past and the England team that won the World Cup. This Ireland team might lose a match against a top team if they got a couple of yellows or or a red card, think SBW agains the Lions. Otherwise none of the teams they are facing in the rest of the 6N should have any hope of beating them. It happens obviously, lose a heap of players to injury, early cards, Scotland play a perfect game. But other than exceptional circumstances occurring not winning the next 3 games would be a major disappointment. That said, with the way Farrell is preparing the team and the culture of accountability and player power that seems to be central to it, a slip up won't be the end of the world.

pickarooney

With the players and coaches at their disposal it should only take a small adjustment for France, New Zealand, South Africa and England to come right back and wrestle the crown away. The end of the year should be fascinating

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120254275#Comment_120254275

Winning the grand slam is always an excellent achievement, it's ultimately the pinnacle of the majority of rugby players careers in the NH.

The fact that winning it is completely in our hands, the fact we are in a position where a grand slam should be expected at this stage as the absolute minimum does not in any way detract from the achievement.