Ireland Team Talk XII: Farrell's First Fifteen

Dubinusa

I don't think we're going to get smashed. I reckon it will be a close affair, if it's shyte weather. We also have some really good ball carrying options in the pack, who I think will give us lot's of possession. France will be unsure of what JGP brings. I reckon they would prefer to see Murray, as they've faced him for eons. Burns can not be as poor as last week, and I think RB is a good replacement.
Surprised to see Kilcoyne out again. Is he injured? The drop off after him to EB is quite big, imo. Weather could be the deciding factor. Pissing rain could help us.

lawrencesummers

lawrencesummers wrote: »

In terms of being competitive at the pinnacle of world rugby it is a bonus that somebody else gets to wear the Irish 10 jersey this Sunday.

In terms of our chances of beating France on Sunday and winning the second most important international trophy our Chances have diminished considerably with Sexton unavailable. I would say they have for from a 20 % chance to a .05% chance.

I just happen to think that winning the biggest competition is a better goal than the secondary competition.

This Irish team is not competitive in the 6N. We are not at the same level as England / France and we are somewhere in the mix with Wales & Scotland.

To be competitive with France and England requires change.

I see scope for change in on field selections. The powers that be have identified scope for change in the Coaching and have brought in Paulie.

In what context do you mean the Irish team is not competitive in the 6N?

We have a FAR superior track record to France. We have an equivalent track record to England. We are experiencing a bit of a dip that bar some brain dead on field performances last week could have been in the process of being turned around.

Just because we **** the bed at the world cup every four years, doesn't mean we should change what has largely been a successful approach to the six nations. I'd love to win a world cup but there is more to doing that than hobbling ourselves in an annual tournament, especially considering our player development has been generally quite good through the Schmidt era.

People think we aren't blooding fresh players because of conservatism or weak coaching but it's VASTLY more likely that we aren't blooding fresh players because we aren't producing good enough players to replace the ones we have.

If the opposite was true, Ryan, Doris, Keenan, Stockdale, Larmour and many others wouldn't have broken through so early.

It baffles me beyond words that people don't get this or refuse for some reason to acknowledge it. Is it provincial in nature?

prawnsambo

prawnsambo wrote: »

That's not a situation that's going to change any time soon. In reality, we've been extremely lucky to have had two world class players in the position for twenty years. If Carbery wasn't a perpetual sick note, we'd possibly be looking forward to a continuation of that run. As it is, we are where we are in that department and have to dig into the next step down to keep going. I believe it's more a numbers game than a developmental issue.

yes you're right in saying that we have been fortunate to have mostly over the period at least 1 world-class 10 available (but over-reliance on same particularly in terms of game-plan) and yes we know the misfortune re Carberry and Jackson

still again, the fact that traditionally 10's have taken longer to develop here (a continuing trend) is now thrown into sharp relief by the current situation.

TRC10

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Ireland won a grand slam and a six nations between 2015 and 2019. England won a grand slam and a six nations in the same period with our Grand Slam coming later than their last title.

New Zealand won every tri nations for a decade until 2019 when South Africa won one and then the World Cup having been worse than mediocre for a number of years. I would weight far more on that final year than anything else and peaking at the right time, with the right squad and the right coaching ticket.



Schmidt handed out a lot more new caps than Gatland did over the same time period.

It was clear in 2019, that what Ireland were doing wasnt working. Instead of adapting before the world cup, schmidt decided to double down and do better what we were already doing, and wasnt working.

Gatland has won a world cup knockout game, Schmidt hasn't.

lawrencesummers

Deleted User wrote: »

Ireland won a grand slam and a six nations between 2015 and 2019. England won a grand slam and a six nations in the same period with our Grand Slam coming later than their last title.

New Zealand won every tri nations for a decade until 2019 when South Africa won one and then the World Cup having been worse than mediocre for a number of years. I would weight far more on that final year than anything else and peaking at the right time, with the right squad and the right coaching ticket.



Schmidt handed out a lot more new caps than Gatland did over the same time period.

And this is precisely the point.

The famous victory that we had in Paris in 2018 was arguably the catalyst for that GS win.

Of the Irish team that started that day in Paris 11 played against Wales last Sunday. It would probably have been more if Stockdale was fit. 5/6/7/8/9/10 are the exact same players who started both games, 4 years apart.

Of the French team that started that game only 2 started against Italy last weekend, one of whom is in because of injury to Entemak and Thomas who is dropped this weekend.

The team we currently have in the 6nations peaked in 2018.


It’s not 2018 anymore.

aloooof

Deleted User wrote: »

People think we aren't blooding fresh players because of conservatism or weak coaching but it's VASTLY more likely that we aren't blooding fresh players because we aren't producing good enough players to replace the ones we have.

If the opposite was true, Ryan, Doris, Keenan, Stockdale, Larmour and many others wouldn't have broken through so early.

It baffles me beyond words that people don't get this or refuse for some reason to acknowledge it. Is it provincial in nature?

I think this is spot on, Venjur.

Imagine what boards.fr must've been like over the last decade...

Podge_irl

lawrencesummers wrote: »

Mediocrity in the 6N will lead to mediocrity in the RWC.

Build a team that can win the 6 nations and you can challenge at the World Cup.

France are doing it for 2023
England did it going into RWC 2019

The team we currently have isn’t good enough to win a 6 nations, so that’s a good enough reason to bring in a fresh approach even if you take the world cup out of it.

Italy have recognised the need to rebuild and showed some green shoots against France. That Italian team will come good.

We have more in common with Wales than France at this stage.

Schmidt won half the 6N championships he coached in. A pretty unprecedented level of success. Our RWC is poor but planning 4 years around basically a one off game is somewhat myopic.

Italy have been rebuilding for about 20 years at this point...

lawrencesummers

Deleted User wrote: »

In what context do you mean the Irish team is not competitive in the 6N?

We have a FAR superior track record to France. We have an equivalent track record to England. We are experiencing a bit of a dip that bar some brain dead on field performances last week could have been in the process of being turned around.

Just because we **** the bed at the world cup every four years, doesn't mean we should change what has largely been a successful approach to the six nations. I'd love to win a world cup but there is more to doing that than hobbling ourselves in an annual tournament, especially considering our player development has been generally quite good through the Schmidt era.

People think we aren't blooding fresh players because of conservatism or weak coaching but it's VASTLY more likely that we aren't blooding fresh players because we aren't producing good enough players to replace the ones we have.

If the opposite was true, Ryan, Doris, Keenan, Stockdale, Larmour and many others wouldn't have broken through so early.

It baffles me beyond words that people don't get this or refuse for some reason to acknowledge it. Is it provincial in nature?

In the context of RESULTS. The thing that professional international teams are judged on.


We won the 6N in 2018
We came third in 2019
We came fourth in 2020


That is pretty much the textbook definition of not being competitive.

Podge_irl

I was far more concerned with the utterly awful run in the 6N up until 2009 then I will ever be about our lack of knockout success in the World Cup. We went TWENTY FOUR years without winning the 6N and as it turns out it did eff all use for our World Cup performances either.

lawrencesummers

Podge_irl wrote: »

Schmidt won half the 6N championships he coached in. A pretty unprecedented level of success. Our RWC is poor but planning 4 years around basically a one off game is somewhat myopic.

Italy have been rebuilding for about 20 years at this point...

I could accept your point if we actually had a good team competitive team at this point in time that could challenge to win a 6N.

But we dont

prawnsambo

glasso wrote: »

yes you're right in saying that we have been fortunate to have mostly over the period at least 1 world-class 10 available (but over-reliance on same particularly in terms of game-plan) and yes we know the misfortune re Carberry and Jackson

still again, the fact that traditionally 10's have taken longer to develop here (a continuing trend) is now thrown into sharp relief by the current situation.

When we're dealing with such a small sample size, I'm not sure we can really say that about development. Going back to ROG, he got a very early start on his international career. That it was stymied to a point by David Humphries, it still developed at a reasonable pace and he was top dog within three years of his first cap. Sexton's career had a different trajectory. Before his breakthrough year, he'd been sent back to Marys for a spell and followed that with some great performances that got him capped for Ireland. Imo, he was something of a late developer. Carbery had a very quick start as did Jackson before him. So on balance, it's been more cases of early recognition and promotion than not.

aloooof

lawrencesummers wrote: »

And this is precisely the point.

The famous victory that we had in Paris in 2018 was arguably the catalyst for that GS win.

Of the Irish team that started that day in Paris 11 played against Wales last Sunday. It would probably have been more if Stockdale was fit. 5/6/7/8/9/10 are the exact same players who started both games, 4 years apart.

Of the French team that started that game only 2 started against Italy last weekend, one of whom is in because of injury to Entemak and Thomas who is dropped this weekend.

The team we currently have in the 6nations peaked in 2018.


It’s not 2018 anymore.

Of those 2018 teams, which do you think was more in need of an overhaul?

2014 to 2018 6 Nations position for Ireland: 1st, 1st, 3rd, 2nd, 1st.
2014 to 2018 6 Nations position for France: 4th, 4th, 5th, 3rd, 4th.

Would France have overhauled as completely if they had been delivering to the same level of Ireland? Extremely doubtful.

Equally, we just don't have the same level of player depth that the French do.

TRC10

TRC10 wrote: »

It was clear in 2019, that what Ireland were doing wasnt working. Instead of adapting before the world cup, schmidt decided to double down and do better what we were already doing, and wasnt working.

Gatland has won a world cup knockout game, Schmidt hasn't.

Ireland tried to do in 2019 what was successful in 2018. England largely adopted a very similar game plan to Ireland with a squad more suited to that kind of rugby and made a final in the world cup. Ireland were number 1 in the World 1 year before the tournament with commentators universally citing us as a serious prospect so you are writing reductive nonsense, sorry.

Wales didn't really evolve in any meaningful way from 2017 - 2019 but were able to reach a world cup semi final, good for them and there is an argument that Gatland's coaching or approach made the difference but ultimately our form collapsed through 2019 so it's hard to make comparisons.

prawnsambo

prawnsambo wrote: »

When we're dealing with such a small sample size, I'm not sure we can really say that about development. Going back to ROG, he got a very early start on his international career. That it was stymied to a point by David Humphries, it still developed at a reasonable pace and he was top dog within three years of his first cap. Sexton's career had a different trajectory. Before his breakthrough year, he'd been sent back to Marys for a spell and followed that with some great performances that got him capped for Ireland. Imo, he was something of a late developer. Carbery had a very quick start as did Jackson before him. So on balance, it's been more cases of early recognition and promotion than not.

valid points you make.

I think that I've expressed my points anyways at this juncture.

ersatz

joseywhales wrote: »

Farrel, SOB and murray(maybe everyone associated with Irish rugby for the past 10 years, I've just seen recent interviews with these guys), need to cut out "et cetera" from their vocab. Et cetera this and et cetera that. It's like someone started a trend in camp about 10 years ago and they are all addicted to this magical word now that fills space for them.


"They've been training all week et cetera"

I haven't been able to listen to Irish rugby players or coaches speak since they all started to use 'learnings' as a word.

prawnsambo

glasso wrote: »

valid points you make.

I think that I've expressed my points anyways at this juncture.

You have in fairness. Good debate though. Thanks for that.

prawnsambo

ersatz wrote: »

I haven't been able to listen to Irish rugby players or coaches speak since they all started to use 'learnings' as a word.

Press should start substituting 'educations' in their questions. As in "what educations did you take from this result?". Just for the craic like.

Neil3030

[Deleted User] wrote: »

People think we aren't blooding fresh players because of conservatism or weak coaching but it's VASTLY more likely that we aren't blooding fresh players because we aren't producing good enough players to replace the ones we have.

If the opposite was true, Ryan, Doris, Keenan, Stockdale, Larmour and many others wouldn't have broken through so early.

It baffles me beyond words that people don't get this or refuse for some reason to acknowledge it. Is it provincial in nature?

The system needs to be looked at. No major overhaul is needed but I'd argue that forwards and backs can be coached, but 10s need to play and gain experience. So the current setup will produce players in some positions, but leave us lacking in others.

Healy, Hawkshaw, Byrne etc, would all have at least a season at ProD2 level at their age, were they French. Regular game time at a good level, with decent learning opportunities at low enough pressure that mistakes won't be the end of them. Also crucial that they start learning the psychological and interpersonal nuances of training each week as a team's starting 10, and not an understudy.

But at present we lack that middle ground between the win-at-all cost context of the top provincial competitions, and the "meh" of the competitions at the next step down.

TRC10

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Ireland tried to do in 2019 what was successful in 2018. England largely adopted a very similar game plan to Ireland with a squad more suited to that kind of rugby and made a final in the world cup. Ireland were number 1 in the World 1 year before the tournament with commentators universally citing us as a serious prospect so you are writing reductive nonsense, sorry.

Wales didn't really evolve in any meaningful way from 2017 - 2019 but were able to reach a world cup semi final, good for them and there is an argument that Gatland's coaching or approach made the difference but ultimately our form collapsed through 2019 so it's hard to make comparisons.

But would you agree that our form collapsed because the game moved on and thus what we did successfully in 2018 wasnt working anymore And our coach refused to change anything?

Dubinusa

Rugby is not a big sport in Italy. They only have the 2 poor sides. I don't see them becoming a good side anytime soon.
Farrell has done quite well bringing up new players. I don't think that's disputable. Some of them could be in the squad for some time. I think though, that the autumn series was a pivotal opportunity to flip the script. I would have liked to see the call ups feature more and perhaps more call ups. I.E start Burns for all the matches? Then we'd have a better idea of where he is. Also JGP could have started all the matches. In meaningless tournaments it would be ideal to give the up and coming players the brunt of the minutes.
Playing Healy, Murray and Sexton taught us nothing really. Same with POM. I think the opportunity was missed and now we are in a situation where the halves are fairly green. I think they'll be fine though. I think they are good players and are certainly worth a look. But anyway, I can't wait for the match!!

bayern

Neil3030 wrote: »

The system needs to be looked at. No major overhaul is needed but I'd argue that forwards and backs can be coached, but 10s need to play and gain experience. So the current setup will produce players in some positions, but leave us lacking in others.

Healy, Hawkshaw, Byrne etc, would all have at least a season at ProD2 level at their age, were they French. Regular game time at a good level, with decent learning opportunities at low enough pressure that mistakes won't be the end of them. Also crucial that they start learning the psychological and interpersonal nuances of training each week as a team's starting 10, and not an understudy.

But at present we lack that middle ground between the win-at-all cost context of the top provincial competitions, and the "meh" of the competitions at the next step down.

Isn't the AIL not a perfect avenue for young 10's to develop?

Or are people just writing that off going forward?

lawrencesummers

aloooof wrote: »

Of those 2018 teams, which do you think was more in need of an overhaul?

2014 to 2018 6 Nations position for Ireland: 1st, 1st, 3rd, 2nd, 1st.
2014 to 2018 6 Nations position for France: 4th, 4th, 5th, 3rd, 4th.

Would France have overhauled as completely if they had been delivering to the same level of Ireland? Extremely doubtful.

Equally, we just don't have the same level of player depth that the French do.

Your living in the past.

Take stock of the present - we are not good enough and on our current trajectory we are getting worse not better.

Look to the future.

The time to rip the plaster off quickly had long since passed. Andy Farrell has made a grave error that will cost him intimately by taking the approach of prioritising short term success (which was always very unlikely) over long term building.

Dual wheels

clsmooth wrote: »

What are you on about an awful hammering? What’s the basis for that statement? We lost by 8 points in Paris with a weaker squad in October. And if we were in for an ‘awful hammering’, why would we put out an experimental team to be lambs to the slaughter? Do you really think that’s ‘good’ experience? Your post makes zero sense on any level.

Did you see today’s team? You will look very foolish on here come Sunday evening

TRC10

TRC10 wrote: »

But would you agree that our form collapsed because the game moved on and thus what we did successfully in 2018 wasnt working anymore And our coach refused to change anything?

I would say that we drilled a team and built a squad to compete in a World cup.

Maybe the game moved on in some facets but England played a very similar brand so I reject that as the sole cause.

I think a variety of factors from teams learning to adapt to our style of kicking, a dip in confidence and a disconnect between the coaches and the playing squad and probably a few more contributed to what was an extremely unexpected and last minute collapse for the team.

We well beat Wales in both warm up games and they made a semi final whilst we lost to Japan. Not everything adds up but I don't believe that fundamental mistakes were made in our build up, we just got it wrong on the night.

aloooof

lawrencesummers wrote: »

Your living in the past.

Take stock of the present - we are not good enough and on our current trajectory we are getting worse not better.

Look to the future.

The time to rip the plaster off quickly had long since passed. Andy Farrell has made a grave error that will cost him intimately by taking the approach of prioritising short term success (which was always very unlikely) over long term building.

He gave 11 players their debut in the last calendar year. You're not seeing the changes in the positions you want, but that doesn't mean there hasn't been change, which you seem to be completely overlooking.

lawrencesummers

aloooof wrote: »

He gave 11 players their debut in the last calendar year. You're not seeing the changes in the positions you want, but that doesn't mean there hasn't been change, which you seem to be completely overlooking.

Take Georgia Italy and injury out of it and how many are left?

crossman47

TRC10 wrote: »

It's small nation mentality. Winning a world cup quarter final is more important than winning a 6 nations. I'd take 4 wooden spoons if it meant getting past the last 8 in a tournament that only 4 teams have ever won.

Not much I can say to that other than its pure nonsense. How is getting to the last four in the world better than winning the Six Nations which shows there are, at best, just three (probably two) countries better then you?

aloooof

lawrencesummers wrote: »

Take Georgia Italy and injury out of it and how many are left?

It'd leave Doris, Kelleher, Deegan, Lowe, and Burns. But I don't see why you would omit them. For example, you're then leaving out Keenan who is now our 1st choice 15.

Now you might have a go at answering my questions? In 2018, which team between Ireland and France was more in need of a major overhaul? And do you think that might have had any influence on why they had a lot fewer platers from them play last weekend than we did?

TRC10

crossman47 wrote: »

Not much I can say to that other than its pure nonsense. How is getting to the last four in the world better than winning the Six Nations which shows there are, at best, just three (probably two) countries better then you?

For ireland it is. Our record at world cups is embarrassing and were a laughing stock of world rugby. Canada's best ever finish is the same as ours. Were supposedly one of the biggest rugby nations in the planet yet we have never won a knockout game in the tournament that is the pinnacle of rugby.

lawrencesummers

aloooof wrote: »

It'd leave Doris, Kelleher, Deegan, Lowe, and Burns. But I don't see why you would omit them. For example, you're then leaving out Keenan who is now our 1st choice 15.

Now you might have a go at answering my questions? In 2018, which team between Ireland and France was more in need of a major overhaul? And do you think that might have had any influence on why they had a lot fewer platers from them play last weekend than we did?

I meant take the debutants that got gametime against Georgia, Italy and because of injury and tell me how many debutants are left.

Your question is irrelevant, because this isn’t 2018.

A relevant question now is which team Ireland 2021 or France 2021 is in more need of an overhaul?


The simple fact is that we are still fielding our 2018 GS winning team in 2021 and it doesn’t look like changing enough to be competitive anytime soon.

Our trajectory is downward, anyone pretending otherwise isn’t looking at reality.