Level 5 lockdown essentially failed

99nsr125

Tazz T wrote: »

Your prediction is a guess. You haven't offered any explanation or evidence for this.

My theory is based on three years immunology study at the university of east london, including a final year on epidemiology. I've been trained to read the graphs. The third wave started way sooner would normally be expected. Typically, you would expect to see a month of stability between each wave. I suspect a combination of people staying inside more and the schools remaining open have shortened this gap. But there is another more sinister explanation behind this massive acceleration over the last week. And the only way that can possibly be explained is by the unexpected introduction of a new more highly transmissible variant. *No one could have predicted that*

On the bright side, the fact that we're now in the third wave means this will be over soon, perhaps in early February. I know of no precedence of an airborne pandemics that have had more than three major waves, although there is still the chance that this could become a seasonal 'flu' albeit, much less lethal and vaccines will mean these will be blips rather than waves.

Everyone could have predicted it
It's about not panicing people

Tazz T

99nsr125 wrote: »

Everyone could have predicted it

...but no one did

99nsr125

Tazz T wrote: »

...but no one did

No one in public

Think of the flu and how it changes what every year

Back in April I was already saying I hope the sequel Covid-20 is better

Tazz T

ooookkkkkkaaaaaaayyyyyyy

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average_runner wrote: »

If we don't do lockdown and the virus gets out of control, where do we draw the line?



We opened things up and people took the piss, ie GAA clubs for example.


Its all about attitude, if we have the correct attitude we can open up

people can't leave the restauarnts alone.they will be there till closing tomorrow,even with the new strain possibly here

I'm sure all restaurant staff wash their hands after bathroom and do not ever touch masks. yeah right..The minute mcdonalds open after the first time they were queueing up. Restaurants are not essential to anyone

B.A._Baracus

thegetawaycar wrote: »

They aren't correct though, did they not say that 270 from yesterday were late notification, so yesterday would be 691 and possibly the other days a few higher each?

In order for things to level off the figures have to level off over a period of time. A week? Two weeks? That's open to debate as to how long.

These figures are reports. If, for example, the cases stay at 700 for one week.... Then for the second week stay in and around the same. Then yes they are levelling off as the data would be there.

I understand what you are saying about late notifications. But we need to see a pattern before making a statement of levelling off.

The Continental Op

Maria Muscular Quicksand wrote: »

people can't leave the restauarnts alone.they will be there till closing tomorrow,even with the new strain possibly here

I'm sure all restaurant staff wash their hands after bathroom and do not ever touch masks. yeah right..The minute mcdonalds open after the first time they were queueing up. Restaurants are not essential to anyone

I was coming home on the ferry this evening and I overheard a guy on the ferry telling someone that he had to isolate for 10 days (well that bit was wrong) but then he went on to say that eating was essential so it was OK for him to go out to a restaurant :eek:

What hope have we really

tobeme2020

B.A._Baracus wrote: »

I don't see how cases are levelling off tho.

New Cases:
Dec 16th: 421 cases
Dec 17th: 481 cases
Dec 18th: 576 cases
Dec 19th: 522 cases
Dec 20th: 766 cases
Dec 21st: 725 cases
Dec 22nd: 961 cases.

The stats would have to be levelling off, to be levelling off :pac:

Is this death rates or new cases

The_Brood

90% of everything this government, and much of Europe, has done or has failed to do in response to the pandemic has been an absolute and complete total failure.

The worst thing though is that they have the magic wand of 'it's unprecedented times we're following expert advice!' to wipe away any and all responsibility and sweep any and all complaints under the rung. Covid-19 is like Disneyland, a magical kingdom for the politicians because no matter how badly they fail, they will never have to answer for a single thing.

But at the end of the day those most at fault is us the people for A) voting in all these muppets and tolerating them quietly.

tobeme2020

NaFirinne wrote: »

The one thing I don't get is the flu looks like it's completely dropped of the planet. Yet Covid is still growing....would this not indicate that yes indeed the lockdowns are working...just for a different virus.

And if the lockdowns managed to stop the flu why aren't the effective for covid?

I do feel for people loosing their businesses and Jobs though. Will they get a bail out from the governement like the banks did?

Can you not make a correlation between the two here.

[Deleted User]

[Deleted User] wrote: »

The goal of the level 5 lockdown was to reduce the cases to about 50 per day so we could reopen.
Unfortunately yesterday we had 300 cases and are nowhere close to 50 a day.

Now of course it did help to an extent. Cases have reduced from about 1000+ to 250 - 300 ish. But we have to consider the social and economic impact on society as well.

Based on what we’ve seen, if we return to level 5 in January, what evidence is there to suggest it will even work?

If we do rise to 1000+ cases a day in Jan, how many months of level 5 would be needed to get back towards 0, which seems to be our goal. Would it even be sustainable?

Do you think cases will remain lower with more social outlets open and more controlled environments?

If months of level 5 is the only solution until everybody is vaccinated, I think we are f*cked.
I predict there will be huge backlash against lockdowns next year.

Thoughts?

Funny reading back on my OP from December 1st.

Seems like the answer to my question is at least 5 months of very severe lockdown followed by more months of heavy restrictions.

A complete failed experiment/policy.

We’ll be dealing with the fallout for years to come.

opinionated3

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Funny reading back on my OP from December 1st.

Seems like the answer to my question is at least 5 months of very severe lockdown followed by more months of heavy restrictions.

A complete failed experiment/policy.

We’ll be dealing with the fallout for years to come.

You're right about pretty much everything except the backlash which will be delayed till the next election. Mainly because any sort of public protest will be hijacked by nutters and trouble makers. The last protest I ever attended was a local anti water charges one, and it was civilised and orderly because anyone and everyone turned up with genuine objections. We weren't peddling conspiracy theories or seeking a scrap with the gardai. Unfortunately with this issue, we will just have to suck it up and get on with it. Nphet rule the roost and they are the master of puppets, and our government the willing participant while the rest of us struggle to pay our mortgages and maintain our social sanity.

Now we have Nolan saying just another 5 months.

blackbox

The numbers of new cases are still very high even though infections from hospitals and nursing homes are greatly reduced.
I think lack of adherence to the lockdowns must be an issue. Level 3 or 4 should have been sufficient if people actually obeyed them.

timmyntc

blackbox wrote: »

The numbers of new cases are still very high even though infections from hospitals and nursing homes are greatly reduced.
I think lack of adherence to the lockdowns must be an issue. Level 3 or 4 should have been sufficient if people actually obeyed them.

The reason people aren't obeying is because of the prolonged strict lockdown.

punisher5112

Yesterday on the buses was the busiest I've seen in months.

MrStuffins

Portion of people disagree with and complain about the restrictions, giving out about "the gubernment" and saying "Mehole" loads of times.

They actively ignore restrictions.

Cases don't go down as quick as they should and restrictions are extended.

It's pointed out to them that this is because there is a portion of people who are ignoring the restrictions.

They say they are ignoring the restrictions because they disagree with them and say "Mehole" loads more times.

They actively ignore restrictions............

CalamariFritti

MrStuffins wrote: »

Portion of people disagree with and complain about the restrictions, giving out about "the gubernment" and saying "Mehole" loads of times.

They actively ignore restrictions.

Cases don't go down as quick as they should and restrictions are extended.

It's pointed out to them that this is because there is a portion of people who are ignoring the restrictions.

They say they are ignoring the restrictions because they disagree with them and say "Mehole" loads more times.

They actively ignore restrictions............

If you complain about this after a year of that sh1t with many many months of lockdown and no clear end in sight then this is not an admission of people's failures but an admission of failing to understand people. People are not a petri dish and our prediction that lockdown only works for so long simply seems spot on.

MrStuffins

CalamariFritti wrote: »

......lockdown only works for so long simply seems spot on.

Because......

MrStuffins wrote: »

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Del Griffith

MrStuffins wrote: »

Portion of people disagree with and complain about the restrictions, giving out about "the gubernment" and saying "Mehole" loads of times.

They actively ignore restrictions.

Cases don't go down as quick as they should and restrictions are extended.

It's pointed out to them that this is because there is a portion of people who are ignoring the restrictions.

They say they are ignoring the restrictions because they disagree with them and say "Mehole" loads more times.

They actively ignore restrictions............

You're right. Also that proportion of people that complain about restrictions and start to get complacent or indeed completely ignore them, goes up as a % of the population, the longer that the lockdown goes on. This is only natural as fatigue sets in.

Ergo, lockdowns are failing, and another strategy should be suggested.

The government themselves said last year that they can’t expect people to tolerate lockdown for more than a few weeks.

Somewhere along the line though they decided that a few months would be grand.

Tig98

CalamariFritti wrote: »

If you complain about this after a year of that sh1t with many many months of lockdown and no clear end in sight then this is not an admission of people's failures but an admission of failing to understand people. People are not a petri dish and our prediction that lockdown only works for so long simply seems spot on.

Thats not my perspective at least. I think a proportion of the population is flat out entitled. We all have wants and needs and the last year has been tough on everyone, but the more people flaunt restrictions the longer we stay locked down.

People jabber on about their rights and entitlements without giving a **** about the greater picture. I know people who came home for Christmas and went straight to extended family dinners when they were straight off the plane, people having big house parties etc. Other generations had wars and famines, what we're being asked to do is not comparatively a lot.

SnuggyBear

[Deleted User] wrote: »

The government themselves said last year that they can’t expect people to tolerate lockdown for more than a few weeks.

Somewhere along the line though they decided that a few months would be grand.

And then a few seasons

CalamariFritti

Tig98 wrote: »

Thats not my perspective at least. I think a proportion of the population is flat out entitled. We all have wants and needs and the last year has been tough on everyone, but the more people flaunt restrictions the longer we stay locked down.

People jabber on about their rights and entitlements without giving a **** about the greater picture. I know people who came home for Christmas and went straight to extended family dinners when they were straight off the plane, people having big house parties etc. Other generations had wars and famines, what we're being asked to do is not comparatively a lot.

5 million peoples lives have been put on hold for a year now. People who are out of work or have lost their businesses. All entitled jabbers?

demello

Can anyone explain why alcohol is still an essential item? It is responsible for most outbreaks.

Tig98

CalamariFritti wrote: »

5 million peoples lives have been put on hold for a year now. People who are out of work or have lost their businesses. All entitled jabbers?

Im clearly not talking about job/business/family losses people had due to the pandemic, but people thinking they're above everyone else and flaunting social distancing rules etc. People have a right to financial security but not to congregate in groups in time of a global pandemic.
If rules had been better adhered to over Christmas then Irish shops would not have had to miss out on the sales period to online retailers these last two months.

Chris_5339762

demello wrote: »

Can anyone explain why alcohol is still an essential item? It is responsible for most outbreaks.

Riots and a lot of homemade moonshine would be the result of that.

opinionated3

opinionated3 wrote: »

The last protest I ever attended was a local anti water charges one, and it was civilised and orderly because anyone and everyone turned up with genuine objections. We weren't peddling conspiracy theories or seeking a scrap with the gardai.

Both of these, and the whole far right angle, are MASSIVELY overhyped by the media. It was ONE CRAZY GUY with a rocket. There might have been a few bottles thrown, there may have been a few dodgy characters and a few nutters, but the vast bulk of them were just people peacefully protesting against the longest lockdowns in Europe. Not a single window was broken. Now you WILL get the nutters out in force, and the Gardai will have their hands full. The stage is set for it now.

By the way there were much worse things at several water protests you referred to.

Red Silurian

Lockdowns work, we've seen this in many other parts of the world how temporary lockdowns suppress the virus and coupled with strong and smart government policies that societies can reopen.... Lockdown isn't the problem in Ireland, if the govt were half competent we would all be heading to the bar for Friday night pints tonight

Tazz T

Red Silurian wrote: »

Lockdowns work, we've seen this in many other parts of the world how temporary lockdowns suppress the virus and coupled with strong and smart government policies that societies can reopen.... Lockdown isn't the problem in Ireland, if the govt were half competent we would all be heading to the bar for Friday night pints tonight

That would be so gooood.

Teacher2020

demello wrote: »

Can anyone explain why alcohol is still an essential item? It is responsible for most outbreaks.

It is a form of income for the government. About half of the price of a bottle of wine goes to the government in taxes.

RGS

Lockdowns work in short sharp targeted ways.

When you lock down the entire country from early October to whatever date some one in authority plucks out of his arse you are going to get slippage.

So far this week you had suggestions of a little easing from 5 april, next review around 23 may.
Leo saying retail, personal service may be allowed open in may after review early may.

and today Nolan from NHPET talking about the next 20 weeks as if 20 weeks was a few hours.

drunkmonkey

Nolan is Insane, cases don't matter once people aren't overrunning the hospitals. They want restrictions to stay until 80% of adults are vaccinated. That's never going to happen.

francogarbanzo

demello wrote: »

Can anyone explain why alcohol is still an essential item? It is responsible for most outbreaks.

I'm willing to bet that more people would die of alcohol withdrawal and its effects than Covid if we banned it.

Rosita

Red Silurian wrote: »

Lockdowns work, we've seen this in many other parts of the world how temporary lockdowns suppress the virus and coupled with strong and smart government policies that societies can reopen.... Lockdown isn't the problem in Ireland, if the govt were half competent we would all be heading to the bar for Friday night pints tonight

Well said. The laziest analysis ever is the claim that lockdowns don't work. Clearly they work. Numbers have always fallen under lockdowns.

The question of whether people like them, or that they are economically not good, should not be confused with that. It's the inability to function without them that's the problem.

francogarbanzo

francogarbanzo wrote: »

I'm willing to bet that more people would die of alcohol withdrawal and its effects than Covid if we banned it.

No one cares as long as people don't die from COVID. That's all that matters. There won't be any "worrying" or "grim" daily death tallies on RTE for all the non COVID deaths that have already happened and that are coming down the tracks.

Oranage2

If there's another lockdown after this then the government should be disbanded. There should have been a viable plans made after the first lockdown to safely open businesses and keep them open. This lockdown open lockdown open tactic is the most unimaginable tactic from a first world country.

Oranage2

Oranage2 wrote: »

If there's another lockdown after this then the government should be disbanded. There should have been a viable plans made after the first lockdown to safely open businesses and keep them open. This lockdown open lockdown open tactic is the most unimaginable tactic from a first world country.

There won't be another lockdown. The plan is to keep us in lockdown until we get to zero COVID, so therefore most likely until next year. The ISAG has the ear of large swathes of the government. Luckily there are no costs whatsoever to lockdown.

timmyntc

Rosita wrote: »

Well said. The laziest analysis ever is the claim that lockdowns don't work. Clearly they work. Numbers have always fallen under lockdowns.

The question of whether people like them, or that they are economically not good, should not be confused with that. It's the inability to function without them that's the problem.

Mass suicides "work" to prevent deaths from covid - if everyone kills themselves then nobody will die from the virus!

That doesnt mean they work in the grand scheme of things. Lockdowns dont work because they cripple the economy far more than a large number of deaths would - the suspension of health screening leads to a large number of 'preventable' deaths no longer being preventable - and the extreme limitations on people's freedoms means that you're no longer living, you are just stuck in a state of not dying.

timmyntc

timmyntc wrote: »

Mass suicides "work" to prevent deaths from covid - if everyone kills themselves then nobody will die from the virus!

That doesnt mean they work in the grand scheme of things. Lockdowns dont work because they cripple the economy far more than a large number of deaths would - the suspension of health screening leads to a large number of 'preventable' deaths no longer being preventable - and the extreme limitations on people's freedoms means that you're no longer living, you are just stuck in a state of not dying.

I actually think that was the point of the previous poster.

Lisa2011

Asking us all to stay home while allowing people into the country is wrong. Suppressing community transmission is pointless unless you have mandatory quarantine in place. I have followed all guidelines and restrictions even over Christmas despite places being open and the longer this lockdown goes on the less likely people will cooperate.

The government are incompetent. Their failure to go outside the EU vaccination supply chain for extra supplies is a disgrace.

I have had discussions with many people and their theory is the government only want to vaccinate the elderly and vulnerable and forget the rest of us.

timmyntc

Deleted User wrote: »

I actually think that was the point of the previous poster.

oops replied to wrong poster

Retr0gamer

Oranage2 wrote: »

If there's another lockdown after this then the government should be disbanded. There should have been a viable plans made after the first lockdown to safely open businesses and keep them open. This lockdown open lockdown open tactic is the most unimaginable tactic from a first world country.

What other plans though? Have you any idea about how to open the country without causing mass deaths because all other countries that aren't a basket case are doing lockdowns. The problem at the moment isn't the lockdown. It works. It's been proven to work. The problem is people breaking the lock down rules. It prolongs things and the only way to make lockdowns more successful is dealing with these breaches.

Andrewf20

The_Brood wrote: »

90% of everything this government, and much of Europe, has done or has failed to do in response to the pandemic has been an absolute and complete total failure.

The worst thing though is that they have the magic wand of 'it's unprecedented times we're following expert advice!' to wipe away any and all responsibility and sweep any and all complaints under the rung. Covid-19 is like Disneyland, a magical kingdom for the politicians because no matter how badly they fail, they will never have to answer for a single thing.

But at the end of the day those most at fault is us the people for A) voting in all these muppets and tolerating them quietly.

But is it the failure of citizens or politicians? Behaviour & interaction of people spreads the virus and people will generally prioritize their own desires over the common good. People will at times break the rules in big and small ways to suit themselves. Its well documented in psychology:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_choice

This is a hugely complex task with no easy solutions. Thankfully we are not like Brazil where the president does nothing and the place is rampant with the virus.

ceadaoin.

Retr0gamer wrote: »

What other plans though? Have you any idea about how to open the country without causing mass deaths because all other countries that aren't a basket case are doing lockdowns. The problem at the moment isn't the lockdown. It works. It's been proven to work. The problem is people breaking the lock down rules. It prolongs things and the only way to make lockdowns more successful is dealing with these breaches.

Yeah if only humans could be more like robots and override hundreds of thousands of years of instinct and behaviour. Then everything would be grand. Problem is it just isn't going to happen for long enough periods. Dont know why people can't accept this. Lockdowns don't really work, sooner or later you're back in the same position of growing cases. But still the health service hasn't been improved as far as I can tell.

Retr0gamer

Retr0gamer wrote: »

What other plans though? Have you any idea about how to open the country without causing mass deaths because all other countries that aren't a basket case are doing lockdowns. The problem at the moment isn't the lockdown. It works. It's been proven to work. The problem is people breaking the lock down rules. It prolongs things and the only way to make lockdowns more successful is dealing with these breaches.

The problem is lockdown without nuance or thought. Lockdown without allowing low risk activities, without allowing people to meet up outdoors. Its not sustainable or sensible (and its also not what other countries are doing...)

punisher5112

Army should have been trained up, still should be and used in care homes, proper cleaning in these and hospitals.

Better staff training too.

Retr0gamer

ceadaoin. wrote: »

Yeah if only humans could be more like robots and override hundreds of thousands of years of instinct and behaviour. Then everything would be grand. Problem is it just isn't going to happen for long enough periods. Dont know why people can't accept this. Lockdowns don't really work, sooner or later you're back in the same position of growing cases. But still the health service hasn't been improved as far as I can tell.

What other alternatives are there? Scientifically it's the best way to deal with it. People will always be selfish and break the rules but accounting for that even it's the best way to go. There are no other alternatives and if we actually followed the rules we would have been out of the lockdown since February.

AdamD wrote: »

The problem is lockdown without nuance or thought. Lockdown without allowing low risk activities, without allowing people to meet up outdoors. Its not sustainable or sensible (and its also not what other countries are doing...)

But we have had lockdowns with nuance. We have had relaxation of the rules. They work when numbers aren't too high. At the moment the numbers are way too high to open up. We are at full lockdown and the numbers are stagnating. What would those numbers look like if we open up for another free for all like at christmas when we had a third of the current numbers?

timmyntc

Retr0gamer wrote: »

What other plans though? Have you any idea about how to open the country without causing mass deaths because all other countries that aren't a basket case are doing lockdowns. The problem at the moment isn't the lockdown. It works. It's been proven to work. The problem is people breaking the lock down rules. It prolongs things and the only way to make lockdowns more successful is dealing with these breaches.

Japan, Singapore, Vietnam, China, Thailand et al are all basket cases?
No. They are countries with proper contact tracing.
Proper contact tracing works.

Indefinite cycle of lockdowns does not work. I mean look at us - we are back round about the same situation as last year, with over 6 months of lockdowns in that time. And what have we gained? Nothing.

timmyntc

timmyntc wrote: »

Japan, Singapore, Vietnam, China, Thailand et al are all basket cases?
No. They are countries with proper contact tracing.
Proper contact tracing works.

Indefinite cycle of lockdowns does not work. I mean look at us - we are back round about the same situation as last year, with over 6 months of lockdowns in that time. And what have we gained? Nothing.

It only works when cases are very low and strict border controls implemented. We can't do the second, it's impossible. And there are several papers suggesting some level of pre existing immunity, anywhere from 20% to 50% to SARS COV2 in these populations.