Level 5 lockdown essentially failed

JazzyJ

gral6 wrote: »

Closing border in Belarus has nothing to do with Covid.

Fair enough - but there's definitely an increase in restrictions there, and plenty of noise around suspect numbers. I really wouldn't be basing any comparisons against a country like that.

bb1234567

tobefrank321 wrote: »

They'll be shaking their heads again at us in January.

There's a lot of shaking of heads these days and finger pointing but no great solutions.

We are at a different stage to the rest of Europe. We probably had a shorter second wave than most. But our third wave will come in January before everyone elses. We'll have to lockdown again for another 6 weeks to get us to March 1st, then open up and lockdown again 1st April. We are likely to have at least four more 6 week lockdowns until enough people are vaccinated if Dr. Glynn and NPHET are correct about the trajectory changing in the summer.

Personally I think the January lockdown should be the last, but I'm not in charge.

I wouldn't be completely sure, I don't know if the lockdowns in europe will be adhered to at any kind of level that our Autumn one was as it's Christmas and everyone will consider themselves an exception to the rules. Honestly I think our premature lockdown was well timed for that reason, we're in a better position than most for the relaxed Christmas season behaviour

landofthetree

Tazz T wrote: »

So when it's under 300 this evening, I'll be able to say 'so we are well on the road to my prediction, after a 25% fall in the infection rate in just one day'.

See how that works?

582 today.

It's only going in way.

Kermit.de.frog

The most important figure is the positivity rate. That is definitely going in the wrong direction.

The rate of increase will most likely keep increasing until mitigation measures and a couple of weeks lag.

gral6

JazzyJ wrote: »

Fair enough - but there's definitely an increase in restrictions there, and plenty of noise around suspect numbers. I really wouldn't be basing any comparisons against a country like that.

I am from there. People in power don't care about citizens health.

arctictree

I'm curious as to why the numbers came down in November before level 5 restrictions came into effect. Could there be just some sort of natural ceiling at around 1200 a day? And could we see that pattern repeat?

boege

arctictree wrote: »

I'm curious as to why the numbers came down in November before level 5 restrictions came into effect. Could there be just some sort of natural ceiling at around 1200 a day? And could we see that pattern repeat?

I think this is an interesting question. The assumption seems to be that numbers don't change until government acts. However, I wonder do behaviours change as reported numbers grow. i.e. there is a section of the population that takes protective measures before government changes the rules. Certainly in my case the answer is yes, as numbers grow I become more cautious.

Inquitus

2 Classes in my Daughters primary school have been closed this week due to Covid, every kid in each class getting tested. I do think we are underestimating the impact of schools, yes kids are asymptomatic in the main, but they spread Covid the same as anyone else.

howareyakid

Schools being open have had a big impact when compared to the first lockdown. I think the success of that lockdown will be tough to replicate, as the buy-in from people was there as it was so new and scary. And now that's not to say it's not scary now. But for the majority of people, particularly if they haven't had first hand experience of the virus, they've got used to it to a certain extent. That's my opinion. Thankfully, I haven't had first hand experience. And aside from closing non-essential shops, with the schools open, there isn't a huge difference between the Levels I don't think in terms of people's behaviours. The news in recent days about going back into so-called lockdown a few days after Christmas has been tough to swallow. I think everyone would have loved a few days over the Christmas where we could relax for a bit. But the virus doesn't relax, I know.

arctictree

boege wrote: »

I think this is an interesting question. The assumption seems to be that numbers don't change until government acts. However, I wonder do behaviours change as reported numbers grow. i.e. there is a section of the population that takes protective measures before government changes the rules. Certainly in my case the answer is yes, as numbers grow I become more cautious.

Well, its like how many are infected with the flu each week, and get tested? Maybe 1500 a week is the max we will hit, lockdown or not....

Oscar Madison

This thing is here to stay and it won't be going anytime soon.

Too many hard decisions need to be made at this stage but they won't

be made. It's just a case of containment for the immediate future!

Tazz T

JazzyJ wrote: »

Don't get me wrong - I'm skeptical of the governments assertion that there's minimal transmission from schools - especially if its occurring significantly in other countries.

But schools finishing up for the holidays won't impact the numbers until very late December/early January.

That's correct. I fully expect a fall in numbers in January with another rise towards the end of the month. There is a similar blip in the charts two weeks after midterm. My point is Level 5 won't work (as in get us consistently below 200) unless it's involves schools, as it did in the first lockdown. So putting us in a level 5 again in January is just hammering the economy pointlessly. Do it with the schools closed and it will work. We will get to under 100 cases in just a couple of weeks.

That said, analysing the charts at the moment, it looks like the third wave is going to hit a month earlier than expected. Not a bad thing as long as the hospital don't get overcrowded, as the whole thing will be over sooner, but probably a bit too early to affected by vaccinations.

Tazz T

arctictree wrote: »

I'm curious as to why the numbers came down in November before level 5 restrictions came into effect. Could there be just some sort of natural ceiling at around 1200 a day? And could we see that pattern repeat?

The second wave had already peaked. Numbers were falling anyway.

Thats me

arctictree wrote: »

I'm curious as to why the numbers came down in November before level 5 restrictions came into effect. Could there be just some sort of natural ceiling at around 1200 a day? And could we see that pattern repeat?

It is not natural ceiling, we still have second wave which would probably start naturally declining somewhen in January. Cases started declining in November only because of artificial measures (AKA L3) and at any point things could go back in unwanted direction, and this is what we are observing now after restrictions were relaxed and hundreds of idiots rushed into public places with no essential need.



But 1200 seem to be the ceiling for Irish medical system which started struggling or was close to that during the peak. If numbers would still grow further, capacity of hospitals would be exceeded and most likely we would be observing sharp jump in death rate. I expect if numbers will return to that level which is possible in few days given current dynamics, restrictions will be immediately tightened regardless of Christmas.

CIARAN_BOYLE

boege wrote: »

I think this is an interesting question. The assumption seems to be that numbers don't change until government acts. However, I wonder do behaviours change as reported numbers grow. i.e. there is a section of the population that takes protective measures before government changes the rules. Certainly in my case the answer is yes, as numbers grow I become more cautious.

I work in City centre. My boss considers it essential for my roll to be performed on site. I certainly felt that the foot traffic on Grafton Street was higher at the end of level 5 than the end of level 3.

Supercell

I wouldn't be so sure about the schools being a big driver of this, yes there are clusters in some schools just like there are clusters in the community. I'm on the board of a primary school that has had not one single reported case yet. I would attribute that in no small part to the brilliant principal making sure that all the teachers and parents follow the guidelines, though obviously there is an element of luck too, long may it last. Even after the lock-downs ended she decided to keep all measures in place (mini pods of kids, no mixing etc etc) - less disruption for the kids and seems to be a sensible policy so far.

MadYaker

Supercell wrote: »

I wouldn't be so sure about the schools being a big driver of this, yes there are clusters in some schools just like there are clusters in the community. I'm on the board of a primary school that has had not one single reported case yet. I would attribute that in no small part to the brilliant principal making sure that all the teachers and parents follow the guidelines, though obviously there is an element of luck too, long may it last. Even after the lock-downs ended she decided to keep all measures in place (mini pods of kids, no mixing etc etc) - less disruption for the kids and seems to be a sensible policy so far.

Not one single case my hole. I would bet my house that if the HSE tested every kid in that school they would find numerous cases all asymptomatic.

Padre_Pio

MadYaker wrote: »

Not one single case my hole. I would bet my house that if the HSE tested every kid in that school they would find numerous cases all asymptomatic.

I would.like to know what contact trace info says about schools.
They'll never release that info though.

Are many teachers getting COVID? Healthcare worker cases are easily available.

landofthetree

Deleted User wrote: »

I will refer you to the best answer to your assertion on the other thread which you duly ignored

764 now.

Your post was complete wishful thinking.

Tazz T

I see you in a darkened room hovering over a candle alone laughing loudly to yourself

Boggles

Supercell wrote: »

I wouldn't be so sure about the schools being a big driver of this, yes there are clusters in some schools just like there are clusters in the community. I'm on the board of a primary school that has had not one single reported case yet. I would attribute that in no small part to the brilliant principal making sure that all the teachers and parents follow the guidelines, though obviously there is an element of luck too, long may it last. Even after the lock-downs ended she decided to keep all measures in place (mini pods of kids, no mixing etc etc) - less disruption for the kids and seems to be a sensible policy so far.

The "measures" in schools have absolutely nothing to do with the level of restrictions in the country.

She didn't decide anything, she had no choice.

u2me

Level 5 was working the numbers were dropping again until we went back to level 3 and now they are rising again. It's not easy having restrictions but there is light at the end of the tunnel with the vaccines and were so close, it would be a shame to let it slip now after all the effort that was put in by people to keep the numbers low.

gral6

Jerk knee reaction again again with banning travel with the UK. Are those in power going to get brain at some stage?

Dub81

u2me wrote: »

Level 5 was working the numbers were dropping again until we went back to level 3 and now they are rising again. It's not easy having restrictions but there is light at the end of the tunnel with the vaccines and were so close, it would be a shame to let it slip now after all the effort that was put in by people to keep the numbers low.

Dont fool yourself it wasnt, lock downs simply do not work period, all lock downs do is put more people out of work and cause more anguish and misery and economic devastation , you know the saying the definition of madness is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results,this is exactly what it's like with lock downs, we need to keep society open and learn to live alongside the virus until people start getting vaccinated.

SheepsClothing

Dub81 wrote: »

Dont fool yourself it wasnt, lock downs simply do not work period, all lock downs do is put more people out of work and cause more anguish and misery and economic devastation , you know the saying the definition of madness is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results,this is exactly what it's like with lock downs, we need to keep society open and learn to live alongside the virus until people start getting vaccinated.

Can you name a single place on earth where "living alongside the virus" has worked?

oldtimeyfella

Dub81 wrote: »

Dont fool yourself it wasnt, lock downs simply do not work period, all lock downs do is put more people out of work and cause more anguish and misery and economic devastation , you know the saying the definition of madness is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results,this is exactly what it's like with lock downs, we need to keep society open and learn to live alongside the virus until people start getting vaccinated.

It not the lockdowns casuing the suges in cases, it's the reopenings.



You know the saying :"the definition of madness is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results".


Close non-essential stuff down and leave it closed until we are in a good place with the vaccine rollout.

is_that_so

oldtimeyfella wrote: »

It not the lockdowns casuing the suges in cases, it's the reopenings.



You know the saying :"the definition of madness is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results".


Close non-essential stuff down and leave it closed until we are in a good place with the vaccine rollout.

Hospitality is the only thing likely to be hit from now on. Martin has suggested shops will remain open.

blackbox

There's obviously a lot of people who don't give a toss...



https://www.rte.ie/news/ireland/2020/1219/1185489-covid-breaches-gardai/

They spoil everything for normal people.

Obviously they only catch a small fraction of the offenders.

Zebra3

SheepsClothing wrote: »

Can you name a single place on earth where "living alongside the virus" has worked?

Which was promised to us by the government?

Dub81

oldtimeyfella wrote: »

It not the lockdowns casuing the suges in cases, it's the reopenings.



You know the saying :"the definition of madness is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results".


Close non-essential stuff down and leave it closed until we are in a good place with the vaccine rollout.

sure no problem and sit back and watch as more businesss close and more people lose their jobs and homes, and the ecomony weakens even further, and for what to get cases down only for them to go back up again, anyone who says lock downs work is very much deluded, they cause serious untold misery for so many people.