Level 5 lockdown essentially failed

Supercell

Supercell wrote: »

I wouldn't be so sure about the schools being a big driver of this, yes there are clusters in some schools just like there are clusters in the community. I'm on the board of a primary school that has had not one single reported case yet. I would attribute that in no small part to the brilliant principal making sure that all the teachers and parents follow the guidelines, though obviously there is an element of luck too, long may it last. Even after the lock-downs ended she decided to keep all measures in place (mini pods of kids, no mixing etc etc) - less disruption for the kids and seems to be a sensible policy so far.

My daughter's secondary school didn't have a single case either. A few weeks ago a girl in her class was crying because her mother, her father and two of her grandparents all had COVID. She was never tested. So I'd take that all with a very large grain of salt.

MadYaker

Dub81 wrote: »

sure no problem and sit back and watch as more businesss close and more people lose their jobs and homes, and the ecomony weakens even further, and for what to get cases down only for them to go back up again, anyone who says lock downs work is very much deluded, they cause serious untold misery for so many people.

So what's your alternative plan?

Lux23

Dub81 wrote: »

sure no problem and sit back and watch as more businesss close and more people lose their jobs and homes, and the ecomony weakens even further, and for what to get cases down only for them to go back up again, anyone who says lock downs work is very much deluded, they cause serious untold misery for so many people.

The original lockdown worked, and if we went back to that same level of lockdown instead of this Ernst and Young designed system we would be having pints over Christmas. But we never got below 200 daily cases, so how was it ever going to work?

landofthetree

970 today.

My prediction of 1000 per day by 1st Jan will be wrong. More like 2,500 a day.

GhostyMcGhost

Tazz T wrote: »

I'll take that bet and raise you everything I own. There isn't a chance we'll be over 1000 in January.

In fact, I believe we'll be well under 100. The two weeks the schools are out will be kicking in then, easily offsetting any increased infection spread due to socialising over xmas. Remember we're still still at Level 3.5.

Our schools stats here are hidden within in-house transmission. In the UK, number one spreader is secondary schools by a large margin.

Green list in January if not by then.

This post aged well

Strumms

Dub81 wrote: »

sure no problem and sit back and watch as more businesss close and more people lose their jobs and homes, and the ecomony weakens even further, and for what to get cases down only for them to go back up again, anyone who says lock downs work is very much deluded, they cause serious untold misery for so many people.

I’ll happily do all the above if it means people are not loosing their lives.

Untold misery ? No... hardship, difficulty certainly. Untold misery is people dying, friends, family, neighbors... misery is not loosing a job ffs... lots of people loose jobs...

Lockdowns DO work. The statistics prove it, they have been posted here... If you want to counter that.. back it with your own numbers please.

twowheelsonly

Dub81 wrote: »

Dont fool yourself it wasnt, lock downs simply do not work period, all lock downs do is put more people out of work and cause more anguish and misery and economic devastation , you know the saying the definition of madness is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results,this is exactly what it's like with lock downs, we need to keep society open and learn to live alongside the virus until people start getting vaccinated.

"Living alongside the virus" is all well and good..... unless it kills you.

Lockdowns DO work but they have to be implemented properly and everyone has to do their part.
If you meet zero people tomorrow then that's zero people that you can pass the virus onto or they to you. If you meet 40 people tomorrow then that's 40 people that you could potentially infect or 40 that could potentially infect you. That's the theory behind a lockdown. The less you meet or interact with, the less the virus can spread.

Unfortunately the effect of a lockdown has a massive economic effect and I genuinely feel for those affected economically by the lockdowns. I'm blessed in that I won't be out of work (bar illness myself) but I do sympathise with those that will. However, I think that a super strict lockdown for January and February,( which past the first week of January tend to be quiet months anyway), alongside the rollout of vaccinations can help us to break the back of it and give us something to look forward to coming into April / May. I'd prefer that to flip-flopping our way through the next six months.

Tazz T

landofthetree wrote: »

970 today.

My prediction of 1000 per day by 1st Jan will be wrong. More like 2,500 a day.

Your prediction is a guess. You haven't offered any explanation or evidence for this.

My theory is based on three years immunology study at the university of east london, including a final year on epidemiology. I've been trained to read the graphs. The third wave started way sooner would normally be expected. Typically, you would expect to see a month of stability between each wave. I suspect a combination of people staying inside more and the schools remaining open have shortened this gap. But there is another more sinister explanation behind this massive acceleration over the last week. And the only way that can possibly be explained is by the unexpected introduction of a new more highly transmissible variant. No one could have predicted that.

On the bright side, the fact that we're now in the third wave means this will be over soon, perhaps in early February. I know of no precedence of an airborne pandemics that have had more than three major waves, although there is still the chance that this could become a seasonal 'flu' albeit, much less lethal and vaccines will mean these will be blips rather than waves.

Chaoticawk

Panic stations.

lalababa

Tazz T wrote: »

Your prediction is a guess. You haven't offered any explanation or evidence for this.

My theory is based on three years immunology study at the university of east london, including a final year on epidemiology. I've been trained to read the graphs. The third wave started way sooner would normally be expected. Typically, you would expect to see a month of stability between each wave. I suspect a combination of people staying inside more and the schools remaining open have shortened this gap. But there is another more sinister explanation behind this massive acceleration over the last week. And the only way that can possibly be explained is by the unexpected introduction of a new more highly transmissible variant. No one could have predicted that.

On the bright side, the fact that we're now in the third wave means this will be over soon, perhaps in early February. I know of no precedence of an airborne pandemics that have had more than three major waves, although there is still the chance that this could become a seasonal 'flu' albeit, much less lethal and vaccines will mean these will be blips rather than waves.

'no precedence' sure , but this pandemic has being treated differently and to a wider extent. It has not being left run it's natural course. So there easily could be more flare ups as time goes on.

NaFirinne

The one thing I don't get is the flu looks like it's completely dropped of the planet. Yet Covid is still growing....would this not indicate that yes indeed the lockdowns are working...just for a different virus.

And if the lockdowns managed to stop the flu why aren't the effective for covid?

I do feel for people loosing their businesses and Jobs though. Will they get a bail out from the governement like the banks did?

Tazz T

lalababa wrote: »

'no precedence' sure , but this pandemic has being treated differently and to a wider extent. It has not being left run it's natural course. So there easily could be more flare ups as time goes on.

Are you saying waves or flare ups, as in the 'blips' I mentioned. No one really knows how pandemics end but usually they burn out after two or three waves, since the beginning of time, with or without vaccines. You say 'this pandemic is being treated differently and to a wider extent'. I don't know what you mean by that. Can you explain? Who or what is 'treating this pandemic differently'? Why should this be different than any other global pandemic?

agoodpunt

school open do contribute just like anything that is open its the extra activity the transport, social and business around it make it same as any grouping the kids may not be the spreaders but 1 example the parent collecting is.
all choices are hard but do not suit some others.

Tazz T

Schools are absolutely spreading it. Look at killorglin.

I really don't understand the government's attitude of assuming that children are immune when the UK stats have secondary schools as the number one spreader at 27%. If 27% of a plane arriving at dublin was infected, there'd be outrage.

Compare the graph of our second wave lockdown to that of Greece's where schools are closed. it's black and white. Greece started out with infections of over 3000 a day and are now have less than us and are still falling fast - no plateauing like us.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/greece/

landofthetree

landofthetree wrote: »

970 today.

My prediction of 1000 per day by 1st Jan will be wrong. More like 2,500 a day.

Large backlog yesterday as they generally do on announcement day.

Based on swabs, probably back to around 700 today.

Cases are levelling off and festive season is ending.

B.A._Baracus

Dub81 wrote: »

sure no problem and sit back and watch as more businesss close and more people lose their jobs and homes, and the ecomony weakens even further, and for what to get cases down only for them to go back up again, anyone who says lock downs work is very much deluded, they cause serious untold misery for so many people.

You see, I view you mentioning that as a way to 'back up' your personal opinion of lockdowns don't work.
Let's be honest... truly honest.... you really couldn't care if strangers lost their job or home. That doesn't make your selfish either. That's human nature unfortunately. We as people largely only care about ourselves and those closest to us. Don't get me wrong you can see tremendous acts of kindness from humanity here and there... but as a whole? the above reigns true.

Sure in any other year loads lose their job and many lose their home but we don't hear a massive out cry for them.

If we take ourselves out of things and view the bigger picture the most important thing is saving human lives. Which is the point of a lockdown.

B.A._Baracus

Deleted User wrote: »

Large backlog yesterday as they generally do on announcement day.

Based on swabs, probably back to around 700 today.

Cases are levelling off and festive season is ending.

I don't see how cases are levelling off tho.

New Cases:
Dec 16th: 421 cases
Dec 17th: 481 cases
Dec 18th: 576 cases
Dec 19th: 522 cases
Dec 20th: 766 cases
Dec 21st: 725 cases
Dec 22nd: 961 cases.

The stats would have to be levelling off, to be levelling off :pac:

thegetawaycar

B.A._Baracus wrote: »

I don't see how cases are levelling off tho.

New Cases:
Dec 16th: 421 cases
Dec 17th: 481 cases
Dec 18th: 576 cases
Dec 19th: 522 cases
Dec 20th: 766 cases
Dec 21st: 725 cases
Dec 22nd: 961 cases.

The stats would have to be levelling off, to be levelling off :pac:

They aren't correct though, did they not say that 270 from yesterday were late notification, so yesterday would be 691 and possibly the other days a few higher each?

daheff

Deleted User wrote: »

My daughter's secondary school didn't have a single case either. A few weeks ago a girl in her class was crying because her mother, her father and two of her grandparents all had COVID. She was never tested. So I'd take that all with a very large grain of salt.

And was this child in school telling people this? If so wtf were the parents doing sending her to school to possible transmit COVID to others?

Second question is why was she not tested? Did the parents not push the doctor to have her tested, or did they not really care enough to make that point?

MadYaker

thegetawaycar wrote: »

They aren't correct though, did they not say that 270 from yesterday were late notification, so yesterday would be 691 and possibly the other days a few higher each?

The upward trend is still clearly visible though

99nsr125

Tazz T wrote: »

Your prediction is a guess. You haven't offered any explanation or evidence for this.

My theory is based on three years immunology study at the university of east london, including a final year on epidemiology. I've been trained to read the graphs. The third wave started way sooner would normally be expected. Typically, you would expect to see a month of stability between each wave. I suspect a combination of people staying inside more and the schools remaining open have shortened this gap. But there is another more sinister explanation behind this massive acceleration over the last week. And the only way that can possibly be explained is by the unexpected introduction of a new more highly transmissible variant. *No one could have predicted that*

On the bright side, the fact that we're now in the third wave means this will be over soon, perhaps in early February. I know of no precedence of an airborne pandemics that have had more than three major waves, although there is still the chance that this could become a seasonal 'flu' albeit, much less lethal and vaccines will mean these will be blips rather than waves.

Everyone could have predicted it
It's about not panicing people

Tazz T

99nsr125 wrote: »

Everyone could have predicted it

...but no one did

99nsr125

Tazz T wrote: »

...but no one did

No one in public

Think of the flu and how it changes what every year

Back in April I was already saying I hope the sequel Covid-20 is better

Tazz T

ooookkkkkkaaaaaaayyyyyyy

80j2lc5y7u6qs9

average_runner wrote: »

If we don't do lockdown and the virus gets out of control, where do we draw the line?



We opened things up and people took the piss, ie GAA clubs for example.


Its all about attitude, if we have the correct attitude we can open up

people can't leave the restauarnts alone.they will be there till closing tomorrow,even with the new strain possibly here

I'm sure all restaurant staff wash their hands after bathroom and do not ever touch masks. yeah right..The minute mcdonalds open after the first time they were queueing up. Restaurants are not essential to anyone

B.A._Baracus

thegetawaycar wrote: »

They aren't correct though, did they not say that 270 from yesterday were late notification, so yesterday would be 691 and possibly the other days a few higher each?

In order for things to level off the figures have to level off over a period of time. A week? Two weeks? That's open to debate as to how long.

These figures are reports. If, for example, the cases stay at 700 for one week.... Then for the second week stay in and around the same. Then yes they are levelling off as the data would be there.

I understand what you are saying about late notifications. But we need to see a pattern before making a statement of levelling off.

The Continental Op

Maria Muscular Quicksand wrote: »

people can't leave the restauarnts alone.they will be there till closing tomorrow,even with the new strain possibly here

I'm sure all restaurant staff wash their hands after bathroom and do not ever touch masks. yeah right..The minute mcdonalds open after the first time they were queueing up. Restaurants are not essential to anyone

I was coming home on the ferry this evening and I overheard a guy on the ferry telling someone that he had to isolate for 10 days (well that bit was wrong) but then he went on to say that eating was essential so it was OK for him to go out to a restaurant :eek:

What hope have we really

tobeme2020

B.A._Baracus wrote: »

I don't see how cases are levelling off tho.

New Cases:
Dec 16th: 421 cases
Dec 17th: 481 cases
Dec 18th: 576 cases
Dec 19th: 522 cases
Dec 20th: 766 cases
Dec 21st: 725 cases
Dec 22nd: 961 cases.

The stats would have to be levelling off, to be levelling off :pac:

Is this death rates or new cases

The_Brood

90% of everything this government, and much of Europe, has done or has failed to do in response to the pandemic has been an absolute and complete total failure.

The worst thing though is that they have the magic wand of 'it's unprecedented times we're following expert advice!' to wipe away any and all responsibility and sweep any and all complaints under the rung. Covid-19 is like Disneyland, a magical kingdom for the politicians because no matter how badly they fail, they will never have to answer for a single thing.

But at the end of the day those most at fault is us the people for A) voting in all these muppets and tolerating them quietly.

tobeme2020

NaFirinne wrote: »

The one thing I don't get is the flu looks like it's completely dropped of the planet. Yet Covid is still growing....would this not indicate that yes indeed the lockdowns are working...just for a different virus.

And if the lockdowns managed to stop the flu why aren't the effective for covid?

I do feel for people loosing their businesses and Jobs though. Will they get a bail out from the governement like the banks did?

Can you not make a correlation between the two here.