Level 5 lockdown essentially failed

[Deleted User]

[Deleted User] wrote: »

The goal of the level 5 lockdown was to reduce the cases to about 50 per day so we could reopen.
Unfortunately yesterday we had 300 cases and are nowhere close to 50 a day.

Now of course it did help to an extent. Cases have reduced from about 1000+ to 250 - 300 ish. But we have to consider the social and economic impact on society as well.

Based on what we’ve seen, if we return to level 5 in January, what evidence is there to suggest it will even work?

If we do rise to 1000+ cases a day in Jan, how many months of level 5 would be needed to get back towards 0, which seems to be our goal. Would it even be sustainable?

Do you think cases will remain lower with more social outlets open and more controlled environments?

If months of level 5 is the only solution until everybody is vaccinated, I think we are f*cked.
I predict there will be huge backlash against lockdowns next year.

Thoughts?

Funny reading back on my OP from December 1st.

Seems like the answer to my question is at least 5 months of very severe lockdown followed by more months of heavy restrictions.

A complete failed experiment/policy.

We’ll be dealing with the fallout for years to come.

opinionated3

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Funny reading back on my OP from December 1st.

Seems like the answer to my question is at least 5 months of very severe lockdown followed by more months of heavy restrictions.

A complete failed experiment/policy.

We’ll be dealing with the fallout for years to come.

You're right about pretty much everything except the backlash which will be delayed till the next election. Mainly because any sort of public protest will be hijacked by nutters and trouble makers. The last protest I ever attended was a local anti water charges one, and it was civilised and orderly because anyone and everyone turned up with genuine objections. We weren't peddling conspiracy theories or seeking a scrap with the gardai. Unfortunately with this issue, we will just have to suck it up and get on with it. Nphet rule the roost and they are the master of puppets, and our government the willing participant while the rest of us struggle to pay our mortgages and maintain our social sanity.

Now we have Nolan saying just another 5 months.

blackbox

The numbers of new cases are still very high even though infections from hospitals and nursing homes are greatly reduced.
I think lack of adherence to the lockdowns must be an issue. Level 3 or 4 should have been sufficient if people actually obeyed them.

timmyntc

blackbox wrote: »

The numbers of new cases are still very high even though infections from hospitals and nursing homes are greatly reduced.
I think lack of adherence to the lockdowns must be an issue. Level 3 or 4 should have been sufficient if people actually obeyed them.

The reason people aren't obeying is because of the prolonged strict lockdown.

punisher5112

Yesterday on the buses was the busiest I've seen in months.

MrStuffins

Portion of people disagree with and complain about the restrictions, giving out about "the gubernment" and saying "Mehole" loads of times.

They actively ignore restrictions.

Cases don't go down as quick as they should and restrictions are extended.

It's pointed out to them that this is because there is a portion of people who are ignoring the restrictions.

They say they are ignoring the restrictions because they disagree with them and say "Mehole" loads more times.

They actively ignore restrictions............

CalamariFritti

MrStuffins wrote: »

Portion of people disagree with and complain about the restrictions, giving out about "the gubernment" and saying "Mehole" loads of times.

They actively ignore restrictions.

Cases don't go down as quick as they should and restrictions are extended.

It's pointed out to them that this is because there is a portion of people who are ignoring the restrictions.

They say they are ignoring the restrictions because they disagree with them and say "Mehole" loads more times.

They actively ignore restrictions............

If you complain about this after a year of that sh1t with many many months of lockdown and no clear end in sight then this is not an admission of people's failures but an admission of failing to understand people. People are not a petri dish and our prediction that lockdown only works for so long simply seems spot on.

MrStuffins

CalamariFritti wrote: »

......lockdown only works for so long simply seems spot on.

Because......

MrStuffins wrote: »

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Del Griffith

MrStuffins wrote: »

Portion of people disagree with and complain about the restrictions, giving out about "the gubernment" and saying "Mehole" loads of times.

They actively ignore restrictions.

Cases don't go down as quick as they should and restrictions are extended.

It's pointed out to them that this is because there is a portion of people who are ignoring the restrictions.

They say they are ignoring the restrictions because they disagree with them and say "Mehole" loads more times.

They actively ignore restrictions............

You're right. Also that proportion of people that complain about restrictions and start to get complacent or indeed completely ignore them, goes up as a % of the population, the longer that the lockdown goes on. This is only natural as fatigue sets in.

Ergo, lockdowns are failing, and another strategy should be suggested.

The government themselves said last year that they can’t expect people to tolerate lockdown for more than a few weeks.

Somewhere along the line though they decided that a few months would be grand.

Tig98

CalamariFritti wrote: »

If you complain about this after a year of that sh1t with many many months of lockdown and no clear end in sight then this is not an admission of people's failures but an admission of failing to understand people. People are not a petri dish and our prediction that lockdown only works for so long simply seems spot on.

Thats not my perspective at least. I think a proportion of the population is flat out entitled. We all have wants and needs and the last year has been tough on everyone, but the more people flaunt restrictions the longer we stay locked down.

People jabber on about their rights and entitlements without giving a **** about the greater picture. I know people who came home for Christmas and went straight to extended family dinners when they were straight off the plane, people having big house parties etc. Other generations had wars and famines, what we're being asked to do is not comparatively a lot.

SnuggyBear

[Deleted User] wrote: »

The government themselves said last year that they can’t expect people to tolerate lockdown for more than a few weeks.

Somewhere along the line though they decided that a few months would be grand.

And then a few seasons

CalamariFritti

Tig98 wrote: »

Thats not my perspective at least. I think a proportion of the population is flat out entitled. We all have wants and needs and the last year has been tough on everyone, but the more people flaunt restrictions the longer we stay locked down.

People jabber on about their rights and entitlements without giving a **** about the greater picture. I know people who came home for Christmas and went straight to extended family dinners when they were straight off the plane, people having big house parties etc. Other generations had wars and famines, what we're being asked to do is not comparatively a lot.

5 million peoples lives have been put on hold for a year now. People who are out of work or have lost their businesses. All entitled jabbers?

demello

Can anyone explain why alcohol is still an essential item? It is responsible for most outbreaks.

Tig98

CalamariFritti wrote: »

5 million peoples lives have been put on hold for a year now. People who are out of work or have lost their businesses. All entitled jabbers?

Im clearly not talking about job/business/family losses people had due to the pandemic, but people thinking they're above everyone else and flaunting social distancing rules etc. People have a right to financial security but not to congregate in groups in time of a global pandemic.
If rules had been better adhered to over Christmas then Irish shops would not have had to miss out on the sales period to online retailers these last two months.

Chris_5339762

demello wrote: »

Can anyone explain why alcohol is still an essential item? It is responsible for most outbreaks.

Riots and a lot of homemade moonshine would be the result of that.

opinionated3

opinionated3 wrote: »

The last protest I ever attended was a local anti water charges one, and it was civilised and orderly because anyone and everyone turned up with genuine objections. We weren't peddling conspiracy theories or seeking a scrap with the gardai.

Both of these, and the whole far right angle, are MASSIVELY overhyped by the media. It was ONE CRAZY GUY with a rocket. There might have been a few bottles thrown, there may have been a few dodgy characters and a few nutters, but the vast bulk of them were just people peacefully protesting against the longest lockdowns in Europe. Not a single window was broken. Now you WILL get the nutters out in force, and the Gardai will have their hands full. The stage is set for it now.

By the way there were much worse things at several water protests you referred to.

Red Silurian

Lockdowns work, we've seen this in many other parts of the world how temporary lockdowns suppress the virus and coupled with strong and smart government policies that societies can reopen.... Lockdown isn't the problem in Ireland, if the govt were half competent we would all be heading to the bar for Friday night pints tonight

Tazz T

Red Silurian wrote: »

Lockdowns work, we've seen this in many other parts of the world how temporary lockdowns suppress the virus and coupled with strong and smart government policies that societies can reopen.... Lockdown isn't the problem in Ireland, if the govt were half competent we would all be heading to the bar for Friday night pints tonight

That would be so gooood.

Teacher2020

demello wrote: »

Can anyone explain why alcohol is still an essential item? It is responsible for most outbreaks.

It is a form of income for the government. About half of the price of a bottle of wine goes to the government in taxes.

RGS

Lockdowns work in short sharp targeted ways.

When you lock down the entire country from early October to whatever date some one in authority plucks out of his arse you are going to get slippage.

So far this week you had suggestions of a little easing from 5 april, next review around 23 may.
Leo saying retail, personal service may be allowed open in may after review early may.

and today Nolan from NHPET talking about the next 20 weeks as if 20 weeks was a few hours.

drunkmonkey

Nolan is Insane, cases don't matter once people aren't overrunning the hospitals. They want restrictions to stay until 80% of adults are vaccinated. That's never going to happen.

francogarbanzo

demello wrote: »

Can anyone explain why alcohol is still an essential item? It is responsible for most outbreaks.

I'm willing to bet that more people would die of alcohol withdrawal and its effects than Covid if we banned it.

Rosita

Red Silurian wrote: »

Lockdowns work, we've seen this in many other parts of the world how temporary lockdowns suppress the virus and coupled with strong and smart government policies that societies can reopen.... Lockdown isn't the problem in Ireland, if the govt were half competent we would all be heading to the bar for Friday night pints tonight

Well said. The laziest analysis ever is the claim that lockdowns don't work. Clearly they work. Numbers have always fallen under lockdowns.

The question of whether people like them, or that they are economically not good, should not be confused with that. It's the inability to function without them that's the problem.

francogarbanzo

francogarbanzo wrote: »

I'm willing to bet that more people would die of alcohol withdrawal and its effects than Covid if we banned it.

No one cares as long as people don't die from COVID. That's all that matters. There won't be any "worrying" or "grim" daily death tallies on RTE for all the non COVID deaths that have already happened and that are coming down the tracks.

Oranage2

If there's another lockdown after this then the government should be disbanded. There should have been a viable plans made after the first lockdown to safely open businesses and keep them open. This lockdown open lockdown open tactic is the most unimaginable tactic from a first world country.

Oranage2

Oranage2 wrote: »

If there's another lockdown after this then the government should be disbanded. There should have been a viable plans made after the first lockdown to safely open businesses and keep them open. This lockdown open lockdown open tactic is the most unimaginable tactic from a first world country.

There won't be another lockdown. The plan is to keep us in lockdown until we get to zero COVID, so therefore most likely until next year. The ISAG has the ear of large swathes of the government. Luckily there are no costs whatsoever to lockdown.

timmyntc

Rosita wrote: »

Well said. The laziest analysis ever is the claim that lockdowns don't work. Clearly they work. Numbers have always fallen under lockdowns.

The question of whether people like them, or that they are economically not good, should not be confused with that. It's the inability to function without them that's the problem.

Mass suicides "work" to prevent deaths from covid - if everyone kills themselves then nobody will die from the virus!

That doesnt mean they work in the grand scheme of things. Lockdowns dont work because they cripple the economy far more than a large number of deaths would - the suspension of health screening leads to a large number of 'preventable' deaths no longer being preventable - and the extreme limitations on people's freedoms means that you're no longer living, you are just stuck in a state of not dying.

timmyntc

timmyntc wrote: »

Mass suicides "work" to prevent deaths from covid - if everyone kills themselves then nobody will die from the virus!

That doesnt mean they work in the grand scheme of things. Lockdowns dont work because they cripple the economy far more than a large number of deaths would - the suspension of health screening leads to a large number of 'preventable' deaths no longer being preventable - and the extreme limitations on people's freedoms means that you're no longer living, you are just stuck in a state of not dying.

I actually think that was the point of the previous poster.