FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

pad199207

18z rolling out now. I wonder are they as gargled as they were last night.

Kermit.de.frog

This one looks like not quite as good. Orientation of Scandinavia high not the best around 144 hrs. At best a delay.

Gonzo

The 18z definitely bringing the mild in more swiftly on Friday compared to the past 3 GFS runs. A weak band of sleety rain and wet snow on Thursday then proper rain moving in from the west on Friday.

This could be a full flip back to the Atlantic.

Kermit.de.frog

Gonzo wrote: »

The 18z definitely bringing the mild in more swiftly on Friday compared to the past 3 GFS runs. A weak band of sleety rain and wet snow on Thursday then proper rain moving in from the west on Friday.

That precipitation will not be "sleety" on Thursday, Friday









A proper event there for a line north of roughly Wexford to Galway.

JanuarySnowstor

Gonzo wrote: »

The 18z definitely bringing the mild in more swiftly on Friday compared to the past 3 GFS runs. A weak band of sleety rain and wet snow on Thursday then proper rain moving in from the west on Friday.

You could look at it this way also,
Heavy rain quickly turning to snow as it moves up over the country Thursday evening. Several hours of snow falling in Midlands and Eastern areas before it gradually turns back to rain on Friday.
That for me is what tonight's 18z shows

Though the Atlantic wins out afterwards in fact it blows the block away!!

Gonzo

big difference for next weekend on the 18z compared to the 12z. 12z was showing temperatures close to freezing in Leinster, the 18z is showing 6 to 9C across the country by Saturday. Winds more of a direct southerly with a south-westerly tilt than south-east. Of course this could be a mild outlier.

Tyrone212

Gfs-A spell of snow that melts quickly enough in most areas but lingers across Northern areas for a couple of days before eventually thawing there as well.

squarecircles

yeah only 15 hours of snowfall...across the west ,midlands and east

Humberto Salazar

derekon wrote: »

Please no!! I’ve had enough of your negativity!! But then I realised earlier you don’t live on the east coast.....so I’d probably be negative too regarding snow chances this week if I lived in the midlands! That said, I think you’re in with a very good chance of snow on Thursday!!

D

One mans negativity is another mans realism... Yes Thursday we cling to for hope.

Kermit.de.frog

Gonzo wrote: »

Of course this could be a mild outlier.

It is against most other models. Wouldn't worry about it too much.

TheMilkyPirate

Even if it is a mild outlier it's still snowing most of Thursday and a bit of Friday

derekon

Humberto Salazar wrote: »

One mans negativity is another mans realism... Yes Thursday we cling to for hope.

Great quote!! Let’s cling to Thursday so, Humberto!

D

jArgHA

Is Cork city in with any shout of snow on Thursday, or is it highly likely to be just cold rain? The chart from squarecircles above looks very pink around Cork?

derekon

jArgHA wrote: »

Is Cork city in with any shout of snow on Thursday, or is it highly likely to be just cold rain? The chart from squarecircles above looks very pink around Cork?

Cork is like the mildest city in the British Isles!! Haven’t you heard of the Cork snow shield?!!

D

Cw85

derekon wrote: »

Cork is like the mildest city in the British Isles!! Haven’t you heard of the Cork snow shield?!!

D

British Isles? You being serious?

Tyrone212

Cw85 wrote: »

British Isles? You being serious?

Even the British government doesn't refer to Ireland in that context.

jArgHA

derekon wrote: »

Haven’t you heard of the Cork snow shield?!!

I have indeed, I've been searching around Turners Cross for it with a hammer, a screwdriver and a baseball bat to take it out.

Gonzo

The pub run has well and truly sobered up and is on a pint glass of water. Unrecognizable from the past 2 days of models.

Cork2021

Gonzo wrote: »

The pub run has well and truly sobered up and is on a pint glass of water.

It’s being responsible, probably go all out Paddy Lotsy tomorrow then!!

Brendan offaly

derekon wrote: »

Cork is like the mildest city in the British Isles!! Haven’t you heard of the Cork snow shield?!!

D

British Isles.
Now now don’t go there.

esposito

I wish there was only two GFS runs like the ECM and UKMO. 0z and 12z. The 18z is a comedy show.

nacho libre

A terrible GFS compared to last night. It does show a decent frontal snow event, but very poor after that. I hope it's an outlier, i am suspicious of how it manages to shunt everything too far east so easily. I will be concerned if the next run shows something similar

Gaoth Laidir

Here are the big 5 models' takes on Thursday evening. Not a cert by any means.

Gonzo

nacho libre wrote: »

A terrible GFS compared to last night. It does show a decent frontal snow event, but very poor after that. I hope it's an outlier, i am suspicious of how it manages to shunt everything too far east so easily. I will be concerned if the next run shows something similar

As of now it's on it's own, it's doubling down on mild Atlantic muck. Cold pushed right back to Russia.

Kermit.de.frog

nacho libre wrote: »

A terrible GFS compared to last night. It does show a decent frontal snow event, but very poor after that. I hope it's an outlier, i am suspicious of how it manages to shunt everything too far east so easily. I will be concerned if the next run shows something similar

Sleep well Nacho dip

nacho libre

It flies in the face of background signals too. If that GFS comes off i am packing it in for this winter. At least until i see another promising day 10 chart:pac:

I will have to wake up for the morning runs now:)

Kermit.de.frog

ICON similar to GFS with many hours of snow or sleet progged for some from early Thursday afternoon right the way through until Friday evening.

The models are consistent on a frontal snow event but doesn't mean it won't change either. For now it's hard not to be content enough.

JCX BXC

Considering we're discussing Thursday, should these not be in the up to 120hrs thread? Would be useful to separate this event from possible much more uncertain future events.

Not that Thursday is certain by any means!

Kermit.de.frog

nacho libre wrote: »

It flies in the face of background signals too. If that GFS comes off i am packing it in for this winter. At least until i see another promising day 10 chart:pac:

I will have to wake up for the morning runs now:)

168 ensemble mean, I wouldn't worry about it

snowstorm445

So after the ECM throwing a spanner in the works about a reload, now the GFS is doing it just as the ECM comes on board. All very confusing and all over the place. Let's see what they say in the morning.