FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

nacho libre

Brendan offaly wrote: »

Why.??
It’s getting too late in the season . The evenings are longer the sun is higher and warmer. It’s time for spring and let the winter go. The temps in that chart are the same as now.

It might be too late for you, but not for me. I will take snow at anytime. Over the years we've often had to wait till Mid February onwards to get snow. Also the uppers are not the full story in terms of delivering snowfall from an easterly. I'm interested to see is this a rogue run, or something other models will pick up on.

JCX BXC

Brendan offaly wrote: »

Why.??
It’s getting too late in the season . The evenings are longer the sun is higher and warmer. It’s time for spring and let the winter go. The temps in that chart are the same as now.

Short memory?

2018 was the best snow event I've ever witnessed, and that was in March.

Gaoth Laidir

Nice new online encyclopedia of all the main models. Some good information on each in there.

https://sites.google.com/ucar.edu/operational-models-encyclo/home

Liberalbrehon

Brendan offaly wrote: »

Why.??
It’s getting too late in the season . The evenings are longer the sun is higher and warmer. It’s time for spring and let the winter go. The temps in that chart are the same as now.

April 1st 1917 blizzard. It's not the daylight, it's the air temps colliding that matters it seems.

https://www.irishpost.com/life-style/five-of-the-worst-ever-snow-blizzards-in-irelands-history-150441

IrishHomer

JCX BXC wrote: »

Short memory?

2018 was the best snow event I've ever witnessed, and that was in March.

I notice this year on this thread I'm begging to feel very old.

1982 was a zillion times best

compsys

Brendan offaly wrote: »

Why.??
It’s getting too late in the season . The evenings are longer the sun is higher and warmer. It’s time for spring and let the winter go. The temps in that chart are the same as now.

The strength of the sun only becomes a factor from around 1st March really.

It's now 10th February.

(Un)fortunately winter still has a a fair while to go.

Also, the average temp in Ireland in February is 7 to 8º.

In March it's a whopping 9º or so.

People saying 'bring on March and the start of spring and some good weather' will be even more disappointed than snow lovers have been so far this winter.

compsys

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

I agree, bring on a spring like 2020 on the weather front, sunny and dry. This winter has been a strange one, far too wet for my liking. On the slip side I have woken up to snow on the ground about 6 times here in D5 including the fantastic ninja snow event a few weeks ago. To have that 5 hours of consecutive heavy snowfall was fantastic to be out in and it lasted the ground for a few days, was about 6cm of snow. That saved the winter for me and overall we have had a lot more snow than the last couple of winters. It’s the rain and damp this winter outside of that which did my head in.

It would be just typical that we will get snow heading into St Patrick’s when we probably just want warmer weather at that point. A real mixed bag of a winter, it promised a lot more than it gave but I suppose some is better than none when it comes to snow.

The chances of a spring like last year are almost zero.

Also last spring (the sunniest ever in Dublin) was quickly followed by the dullest summer in decades.

I'd prefer a good summer and early autumn for once.

If that means a poor spring, I'll take it...

Besides, good weather in spring doesn't really deliver for around two million of us near the east and south east coasts - the sea is just too cold.

Oneiric 3

compsys wrote: »

Besides, good weather in spring doesn't really deliver for around two million of us near the east and south east coasts - the sea is just too cold.

It delivers for the other 2 million though. I'd take another Spring like last year, We paid for it in the Summer of course... big time, but at least you continued to get sunshine in the east.

compsys

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

It delivers for the other 2 million though. I'd take another Spring like last year, We paid for it in the Summer of course... big time, but at least you continued to get sunshine in the east.

True.

It was by no means a great summer in the East though.

Either way we're all due a good summer. Hopefully this year is it.

Nqp15hhu

Brendan offaly wrote: »

Why.??
It’s getting too late in the season . The evenings are longer the sun is higher and warmer. It’s time for spring and let the winter go. The temps in that chart are the same as now.

No. You can still get deep cold in February and early March if there is a thick covering of snow on the ground. It would help to get us through the lockdown.

Oneiric 3

compsys wrote: »

True.


Either way we're all due a good summer. Hopefully this year is it.

With hopefully much thunder! Very little in the way of summer thunder since that of 2014. A repeat of that one I'd take.

ninebeanrows

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

With hopefully much thunder! Very little in the way of summer thunder since that of 2014. A repeat of that one I'd take.

Lightning over the Massif Central?

compsys

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

With hopefully much thunder! Very little in the way of summer thunder since that of 2014. A repeat of that one I'd take.

Almost as rare as snow these days...

John.Icy

Is it even worth going down a Scandi High route again with another easterly attempt (not that the Para get's there)? :pac:

Unlikely to have three poor 'easterlies' (early Jan, this one) in the space of two months though I guess so maybe the next one would be a hit. Looking at the postage stamps at +180 for the GEFS and majority do have a Scandi High of sorts but most of a poor orientation and too close, so not particularly cold. Not for me if such a scenario was to arise.

At this stage, I'd rather go down the route of a big high centred somewhere nearer Iceland/Greenland, drag in a rip-roaring NE'rly and send a lobe of the PV towards us (mid December 2010 style). Unstable and cold. Massively unlikely but coming towards mid-Feb go big or else go home right?

Something like P17 on the 12z.

nacho libre

The Met Eireann Monthly is also going with a Scandi High that sinks south, so there looks to be a bit of a consensus building for a settled period later next week. We will need it after all the rain that is to come. There is no support for heights to the north west at this stage. If the block to the east persists there is always a chance it could push far enough north at some stage to advect snowy cold our ways.

redsteveireland

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

With hopefully much thunder! Very little in the way of summer thunder since that of 2014. A repeat of that one I'd take.

Hold that thought

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=116237834&postcount=598

Oneiric 3

redsteveireland wrote: »

Hold that thought

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=116237834&postcount=598

The Icon Flash certainly loves those pinks!

So do I, but am far more bitterly sceptical.

Dickie10

are we looking at settled and dry late feb?

Humberto Salazar

GFS screams winter is over in FI. Big anticyclone not moving over us. Mild and dry, just what we need in fact.

Gonzo

Dickie10 wrote: »

are we looking at settled and dry late feb?

We could well be, I'll easily take it if we're not going to get snow. We need weeks of dry weather in fairness and anything is better than a raging Atlantic, we've had enough of that over the past 18 months.

If we get alot of high pressure, we could get plenty of very cold and chilly nights with frost and crisp sunny days, wouldn't necessarily be mild weather.

Gonzo

Humberto Salazar wrote: »

GFS screams winter is over in FI. Big anticyclone not moving over us. Mild and dry, just what we need in fact.

It does not scream winter is over. With a big area of high pressure over us expect inversion. Cold frosty nights, fog could become an issue, even freezing fog and lovely crisp sunny days and beautiful sunsets. Those mild uppers can be misleading during high pressure as a result.

piplip87

Gonzo wrote: »

It does not scream winter is over. With a big area of high pressure over us expect inversion. Cold frosty nights, fog could become an issue, even freezing fog and lovely crisp sunny days and beautiful sunsets. Those mild uppers can be misleading during high pressure as a result.

I'd take that. The difference out on my stroll this evening was brilliant. The dogs where dry and clean coming back in which is brilliant.

I'd take a week cold and dry at this stage just to dry out the swamp my garden has become.

cfresident

Gonzo wrote: »

It does not scream winter is over. With a big area of high pressure over us expect inversion. Cold frosty nights, fog could become an issue, even freezing fog and lovely crisp sunny days and beautiful sunsets. Those mild uppers can be misleading during high pressure as a result.

He’s a troll, account should be banned. He’s been trolling on here for the last week.

Birdnuts

Gonzo wrote: »

It does not scream winter is over. With a big area of high pressure over us expect inversion. Cold frosty nights, fog could become an issue, even freezing fog and lovely crisp sunny days and beautiful sunsets. Those mild uppers can be misleading during high pressure as a result.

Latest fax charts showing that in that the 96 and 120hr have the Scandi High getting stronger if anything, though we are just too far west atm to fully come under its influence(though much of Scotland and England will by the looks of it)

Donegal Ken

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

With hopefully much thunder! Very little in the way of summer thunder since that of 2014. A repeat of that one I'd take.

I found summer gone was rather good especially June and July had a few storm chasing days with two notiable storm chases. There was one morning 26th June I arrived at Mullaghmore, Sligo with no stoms sparking yet and noting on rather and this was about 12:30am around 1:30am a little cell popped up on radar 30 minutes later the sky was going mental with multicellular thunderstorms and lightning with flashes every 3 of 4 second. I had chased into Fermanagh and back to South Donegal and finished where I started at Mullaghmore around 8am that morning. Encountered 7 cells that morning with 3 at one stage sparking. Would take another storm season like summer 2020 it was definitely the best in recent years here in the northwest of Ireland.

cfresident

cfresident wrote: »

He’s a troll, account should be banned. He’s been trolling on here for the last week.

Translation : he's not one of us.

JCX BXC

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Translation : he's not one of us.

No, posting blatant falsehoods is not the same as a difference of opinion.

Arduach

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Translation : he's not one of us.

Ah no there's more to it. Deliberately misreading charts and windups all week.

Poster Clonmel loves milder weather but posts in a transparent, sincere way.

OldRio

compsys wrote: »

People saying 'bring on March and the start of spring and some good weather' will be even more disappointed than snow lovers have been so far this winter.

That would take some doing.

OldRio

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

No. You can still get deep cold in February and early March if there is a thick covering of snow on the ground. It would help to get us through the lockdown.

What would help me. I can't speak for anyone else, would be weather were i can get out into the garden.
Nice light days and crisp nights would be grand.