FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

nacho libre

I see this thread has gone quiet. Have people lost the stamina for another chase?:pac:
Ian Fergusson might have been right about a cool down around the 20th.




It would be great if we could shift this high over to Greenland to see out February

snowgal

nacho libre wrote: »

I see this thread has gone quiet. Have people lost the stamina for another chase?:pac:
Ian Fergusson might have been right about a cool down around the 20th.




It would be great if we could shift this high over to Greenland to see out February

Ill never give up on snowwww, but just for tonight, Im not able!!

nacho libre

nacho libre wrote: »

I see this thread has gone quiet. Have people lost the stamina for another chase?:pac:
Ian Fergusson might have been right about a cool down around the 20th.




It would be great if we could shift this high over to Greenland to see out February

Seriously? The Atlantic has proved today its often only able for the weakened continental cold in the Western coastal counties
Bring in more continental cold and it will do the same
Said current cold's parent drivers are leaving tomorrow so a bit of snow in the east before its washed away
I'm done with this train and that's not to disrespect the snow in the west brought about by the air from the east
Its joy is only matched by its Brevity

Tyrone212

nacho libre wrote: »

I see this thread has gone quiet. Have people lost the stamina for another chase?:pac:
Ian Fergusson might have been right about a cool down around the 20th.




It would be great if we could shift this high over to Greenland to see out February

Not keen on another Easterly. Greenland high with a direct screaming northerly would tickle my fancy though lol.

Nqp15hhu

nacho libre wrote: »

I see this thread has gone quiet. Have people lost the stamina for another chase?:pac:
Ian Fergusson might have been right about a cool down around the 20th.




It would be great if we could shift this high over to Greenland to see out February

I wouldn’t turn away similar weather to this but would prefer some snow

Nqp15hhu

Tyrone212 wrote: »

Not keen on another Easterly. Greenland high with a direct screaming northerly would tickle my fancy though lol.

100%.

gerrybhoy

Humberto Salazar wrote: »

GFS screams winter is over in FI. Big anticyclone not moving over us. Mild and dry, just what we need in fact.

Your posts scream your at the wind up,you know nothing

hatrickpatrick

I spy, with my little eye, a Scandi high in Euro FI

Gonzo

I'm going to go a little bit off topic just this once because I feel it is important this needs to be said. Just because the recent easterly failed for us does not in any way mean easterlies are not good for cold and snow. The majority of decent snow events in Ireland over the past 20 years have come from events with an easterly or north-easterly associated with them. Some of these started off as cold northerlies getting the cold in first which allows most of Ireland to become very cold but dry. This is good for freezing the ground temperatures. Once the winds switch into the NE or E then the snow can really get going once we establish a fairly direct hit easterly as long as there is an unstable air flow. 2009, 2010 and 2018 are proof of that as well as other years previously to these events.

The recent easterly failed because everything including the kitchen sink went wrong for us. It was more of a battleground scenario than anything else, we didn't get the true affect of the easterly however it did pay off for some western areas today with the Atlantic meeting the very cold air which only really became established in the past 24 hours.

This should not dampen your thoughts about looking at the models for another easterly, however it does need to be said we need as close to a direct hit as possible from November to end of March. It doesn't matter how far we have gone into the winter but if we're only getting a glancing blow from an easterly it's not going to deliver the goods without some major luck on our side. The Irish sea was the final blow at modifying the edge of this easterly. If we had a proper long fetch from Siberia and we locked into -10 to -14 uppers for several days nationwide perhaps things would have turned out much better in terms of streamers.

Anyhow back on topic with the models. Let's have one last go at getting that direct hit easterly even if we have to wait into the first half of March.

pad199207

100% Gonzo.

There’s a huge difference between an Easterly and Beasterly which one day we will get again

Nqp15hhu

The majority in *your location. That doesn’t mean the majority of the surface area of the island receive most of their snow events from easterlies.

Mod Note: Sorry but I have to disagree. First of all the majority of our readers are from the republic, this is a forum based in the republic. You have posted many, many times that easterlies do not suit your location on the north coast of Northern Ireland. Your location has very different setup required compared to the majority of the republic. Northerlies rarely deliver for a large part of the republic especially in locations most populated. Northerlies can deliver if they are sourced from the pole without Atlantic modification and include unstable polar lows but these are even more rare than decent easterlies which can affect many parts of the republic. The majority of northerlies we experience are heavily modified by the Atlantic unfortunately and they rarely deliver away from northern coasts.

2010 started off as a northerly and a bitterly cold one at that but most of the country remained bone dry until the winds switched into the NE/E. Decent easterlies can turn out great for all of Leinster, the midlands, many southern areas and can even be good for western areas including the north west. Northerlies are generally good for Northern Ireland, north Wales, Scotland and the eastern edge coastlines of the UK and the vast majority of our readers are not from there.

I'm trying to be as nice as possible here to you, just bare in mind most of us here do not live in Northern Ireland or other favored parts of the UK where northerlies generally fare out better. Now can we all get back on topic and just keep this for technical posts. My original post above was made to highlight why the recent easterly is not to dishearten looking for easterlies or beasterly easterlies in the future.

Now can we please all get back on the model watching.

Dickie10

is next week looking mostly dry?

Gonzo

Dickie10 wrote: »

is next week looking mostly dry?

unfortunately no, fairly wet between now and Monday.

Thursday looks wet too.



another bout of rain on Friday.



Possibly more on Saturday. For now the Atlantic looks fairly active over the next week unless we have a major shift in the models very soon.

SeaBreezes

Technically from the south coast what we need for snow is:

A blue moon
Prayers to the weather gods
The cork snow shield to fail.

Though oddly, cailleach, the celtic winter goddess apparently lives in beara, which is, i would have thought, one of the mildest parts of the island of Ireland! Go figure.

And yet, it does happen. Emma was proof of that!

Thanks to all who contribute here the analysis and the charts, from Ireland and abroad. We are a weather tribe.

typhoony

Winter may not be finished with us yet, we're bang in the middle of a period of WAA pushing mild air all the way up to the Arctic circle, ECM last chart shows that happens when the WAA pumps renewed frigid air into Siberia and back east

nacho libre

Well it will be settled anyway. There could be a nice temperature contrast between night and day. It would be great if the blocking high eventually ended up moving over to Greenland. The UKMO do speak of the high moving westwards in late February.

Villain

ROFL




Not sure we have the stomach for another rollercoaster!

Nabber

It’s back on. Has GFS FI ever lied to us?? Yes.. But I’m ready to forgive.

typhoony

If you ask me my confidence for one final very cold spell is around 50%

T2Pauly

That would be beautiful, nearly bang on the 3rd anniversary of the 2018 beast , ❄️🀞🀞

MJohnston

This is completely unscientific, but I'm leaning towards the cold not being done with us yet. This has been one of the coldest winters of the last 10 years, and in any kind of 50/50 situation I always tend to favour the priors.

Reversal

Again another unscientific hunch but I remember 2017/2018 having many close but no cigar events, glancing blows etc. A seasonal winter but would have been unremarkable and similar to this one until the beast paid a visit. It was another winter of eternal hope until it finally came through. Ya never know...

pauldry

Similarly I would reckon there will be more cold spells before the end of March even. Also Id agree another cold spell likely end of February.

TTLF

Interestingly, reloads are in the realm of possibilities with easterlies, look at 2018 for example, BFTE and the the "mini beast" again on the 18th of March... reload of the cold.

Same in 1947 except to a greater extent.

Same with 2010, but also to a greater extend, milder period in December between the 12th-16th ish?

I'm not sure if I'm really ready for a possible reload though, I'm sort of done with snow and cold after tonight's "event" in the east if it comes off...

Slashermcguirk

It seems Dublin looks set to get snow later tonight and tomorrow morning. Hopefully a nice blast of snow before the mild comes in later Saturday.

At least it would be some consolation if we got decent snow cover for some of Saturday :-)

Then I am happy enough for the winter

nacho libre

pauldry wrote: »

Similarly I would reckon there will be more cold spells before the end of March even. Also Id agree another cold spell likely end of February.

The upper strat vortex is roaring back to life now, and it will be around two months since the SSW in March, so we could well be back to our default weather pattern after the first week of March. Hopefully winter will go out with a bang before all that!

Nqp15hhu

I’m expecting some snow the end of February and in March as is always the case.

I’m just praying it’s from a northerly direction. Enough with the failed easterlies.

gerrybhoy

*rollercoaster ticket bought*

Kunta Kinte

If there is a possibility of another cold spell this season let it happen in the next 2 weeks or so. From 1st March onwards I for one will be hoping for some springlike weather to tie in with the change of season on the calendar.

nacho libre

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

I’m expecting some snow the end of February and in March as is always the case.

I’m just praying it’s from a northerly direction. Enough with the failed easterlies.

Yes, it would be great to get a potent northerly to see out February. I remember we used to sometimes have a good 2- 3 day Northerly after mid February when I was a teenager.

Who knows if the UKMO long range is correct that might just happen.