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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**
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Up to this point we have had 2 failed northerlies and 2 failed easterlies. Sure they brought some dustings,graupel/hail and delivered more than a dusting to a few locations but none of these events had the hallmark of a decent snowy period for Leinster or indeed Ulster. The northerlies were modified heavily by the Atlantic, the first easterly was a complete failure with no cold in place sourced from a mild (at the time) continent and the recent easterly we did not get even close to a direct hit and this resulted in the very tame streamers with daytime temperatures too high to maintain what fell on the ground.
I feel there is still time to pick ourselves up off the ground and back on the saddle for one or possibly two last chases before the middle of March.
The charts are already looking promising for perhaps another rollercoaster.
The journey begins with some possibly very mild weather, next week and into the following week has the potential to be the mildest week since the beginning of Winter with strong signals of a very dominant area of high pressure to settle over us.
The High pressure looks very strong on this mornings GEM which would lead to a lovely spell of fine weather and possibly some night time frosts if inversion takes place.
This high could end up either going to Greenland to Scandinavia (that is the hope), which could bring a beasterly easterly back in our direction towards the end of February.
The GFS has a similar area of high pressure over us to the GEM at 240 hours.
The GFS appears to move this high from Ireland/UK over towards Scandinavia by the 24th of February.
By the 26th of February we have a nice Scandinavian high developing and winds are in from the east.
On this current output this easterly is not a severely cold one, it may lead to some wintryness but the suggestion is there for another cold spell and it wouldn't take much to make this cold spell more deliverable at this late stage into the winter.
By the 27th the high begins retrogression and moves towards Iceland/Greenland. winds still in from the E/NE
We finish the GFS run with the high developing over Greenland and it remains very cold over Ireland with snow showers still going in eastern and northern areas.
The GFS ensembles show the mild spell beginning on Sunday and lasting for possibly 10 days. However the GFS operational is a cold outlier for now, will be watching over the next week for it to hopefully gain more support.
The extended range GFS is hinting at this cold spell at some stage between the 25th of February and the 8th of March and possibly another one closer to Saint Patricks Day. This is all extremely extended range stuff and bears alot of similarties to what unfolded end of February to the middle of March in 2018. Could we be in for another repeat? only time will tell but my interest is most definitely alerted.0 -
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ECM extended going for a generally cold signal over most of Europe including Ireland during the first week of March. This is 3 weeks away so I wouldn't take the temperature anomalies to be exact in terms of positioning and depth of cold but the signal looks hopeful this far out.
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GFS 18z really doubling down on the mild over the next 10 days, gets +10 uppers into the country with temperatures possibly reaching 15C in places, could we be in for a taste of February 2019 perhaps. An early taste of Spring once we get this weeks unsettled muck out of the way.
Why can't we get warm plumes like this in Summer? Some of the milder outliers bring +12 uppers across the country and exceptionally mild to almost warm weather.
We finish up with high pressure over the country and cooling down with frosty nights.
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roosterman71 wrote: »A weeks dry weather is what I'm after. Then let it horse snow for a week and bring on the spring time from March.
We may get our chance of much dryer weather from about the 22nd of February. Current models shows us on the mild side of the high pressure with temperatures lifting up and taking off (for the time of year).
If this verifies we could see temperatures possibly reach 15 or 16C under optimal conditions especially if there is lots of sunshine.
Grass growth would definitely get going again from this point and if the dry weather persists it would be a good time to start cutting the grass again.
Towards the end of February we stay under high pressure but start to move towards the colder side of the ridge with daytime temperatures lowering to more seasonal values and night frosts and possibly fog becoming more dominant.
My guess is the positioning of this high will play a big part in determining how mild or cool we get and it remains to be seen if we will eventually lock into a colder spell during the first week of March but currently it does not look like we will get a cold spell to finish February. Plenty of time for this to change.0 -
The GFS 6z operational run is generally one of the mildest runs in the entire set, particularly towards the final days of February which is a very definite mild outlier.
Over the next week we do appear to slowly go back to a cooling trend with perhaps a mini cool spell around the 17th to 20th of February. This is from cold zonality rather than anything from the north or east and may lead to wintry showers in the north-west, especially if this cool spell gets upgraded closer to the time.
After this the high pressure gets going and the temperatures really lift up. I am confident we will get a good spell of high pressure but I am very unsure about this lengthy spell of unseasonably mild temperatures during the final 10 days of February.
Just like very cold spells in FI, this mild will most likely moderate to more normal values, especially if the high pressure ends up going further north or west earlier than expected rather than staying just to our south.
The GFS has played around with some very cold weather recently which is now replaced with this very mild outlook. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a model wobble happen at some point over the next week to something colder. We still have a few cold outliers in the final days of February getting close to freezer territory and while they are outliers I wouldn't be surprised to see these gaining more support by this time next week.0 -
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GFS 18z is really going for the blowtorch, will be interesting to see how right or wrong this verifies and if it verified temperature records could be broken in parts of Scotland with 17C in the far north-east of Scotland on the 24th of February. Crazy to think this is possible when Dublin struggled to get 17C throughout much of July and August 2020 with all the cloud, mist and rain.
From February 20th to the start of March it's mostly low to mid teen temperatures for Ireland with a similar level of warmth at times to February 2019.0 -
GFS 18z is really going for the blowtorch, will be interesting to see how right or wrong this verifies and if it verified temperature records could be broken in parts of Scotland with 17C in the far north-east of Scotland on the 25th of February. Crazy to think this is possible when Dublin struggled to get 17C throughout much of July and August 2020 with all the cloud, mist and rain.
From February 20th to the start of March it's mostly low to mid teen temperatures for Ireland with a similar level of warmth at times to February 2019.
Oh it will verify alright. We’re most likely in for exceptionally mild weather for the next two weeks. ECM 12z was showing the blowtorch also. Not my cup of tea obviously but as long as we get a period of dry weather I’ll take it.
Have a feeling we will still have a cold March though. Who knows what the weather gods have in store for us.0 -
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GFS 18z is really going for the blowtorch, will be interesting to see how right or wrong this verifies and if it verified temperature records could be broken in parts of Scotland with 17C in the far north-east of Scotland on the 24th of February. Crazy to think this is possible when Dublin struggled to get 17C throughout much of July and August 2020 with all the cloud, mist and rain.
From February 20th to the start of March it's mostly low to mid teen temperatures for Ireland with a similar level of warmth at times to February 2019.
Could be some significant flooding up in Eastern Scotland with such rapid thaw0 -
Lp's dominating, mild in general and wet if not very wet outlook.
Accumulation chart just a very rough guide but some very wet spells coming up from a lot of frontal activity coming in off the Atlantic. Hopefully though some half dry days here and there to get out and about.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/
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