FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Meteorite58

The main models have been showing a couple of very wet and windy days early next week around Monday, Tuesday into Weds as areas of LP travel up off the W coasts sending in their associated fronts, long fetch of moist mild air from a Southerly direction. ECM showing some huge rainfall totals in the SW, S. After all the rain the last few days and what is expected tomorrow evening into Fri will keep the ground fairly saturated. Luckily maybe not too wet over the weekend. Has the look of having potential for more serious flooding around Tuesday/ Weds next week along the SW and S, and perhaps the SE ,must keep an eye on it.

Gonzo

Safe to say the prospect of an extended period of mild/warm and dry weather is being eroded with every run and mostly mild Atlantic zonality rattling through the country for the next 2 weeks with brief cooler interludes. After such a wet winter flooding could become a real concern before we hit 1st of March.

All helped by the fact that the Polar Vortex has made a complete recovery.

nacho libre

It's incredible despite all the batterings it took, how quick it recovers. Judah Cohen was talking about the possibility of a Greenland High in March, i just don't see how that is going to happen, but then he is the expert!


https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1362090797022273536

typhoony

Must admit I thought we'd get one final cold spell but I notice GFS trending towards high pressure either directly over Ireland or nearby as we get towards the final days of February into March, some nice spring like weather but some overnight frosts getting burnt off quickly in the mornings. Sounds wonderful

Gonzo

typhoony wrote: »

Must admit I thought we'd get one final cold spell but I notice GFS trending towards high pressure either directly over Ireland or nearby as we get towards the final days of February into March, some nice spring like weather but some overnight frosts getting burnt off quickly in the mornings. Sounds wonderful

Winter is well and truly done. The rest of February looks mild, sometimes very mild and Atlantic zonality is the only game in town for the next few weeks. The PV has totally recovered. The NAO and AO is set to stay positive for the next two weeks at least. This mild period will probably see us through the first week of March as well.

Everything seems stacked against us at this stage with getting a decent cold spell in the first half of March, it may happen but I think we will just see a continuation of the westerlies throughout March.

Gaoth Laidir

For 53N, here are the actual daily maximum solar irradiation values for different dates (W/m²) and total daylight hours. Total daylight hours are also important as they increase as the irradiation is increasing, giving a double-whammy effect.

The sun is 54% stronger in March than December, plus daylight is 58% longer.

DATE | W/m² | Hours
Dec 22 | 570 | 7:29
Jan 15 | 627 | 8:05
Feb 15 | 768 | 9:53
Mar 15 | 878 | 11:50
Apr 15 | 958 | 14:00

Reversal

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

For 53N, here are the actual daily maximum solar irradiation values for different dates (W/m²) and total daylight hours. Total daylight hours are also important as they increase as the irradiation is increasing, giving a double-whammy effect.

The sun is 54% stronger in March than December, plus daylight is 58% longer.

DATE | W/m² | Hours
Dec 22 | 570 | 7:29
Jan 15 | 627 | 8:05
Feb 15 | 768 | 9:53
Mar 15 | 878 | 11:50
Apr 15 | 958 | 14:00

Just out of interest. What would the values be for areas of Texas at the moment?

Gaoth Laidir

Reversal wrote: »

Just out of interest. What would the values be for areas of Texas at the moment?

Dallas (32N) is currently 950 W/m² (where we will be on April 12th).

On the link below slide the latitude and day sliders and then click on the chart to see the actual data.

https://www.pveducation.org/pvcdrom/properties-of-sunlight/calculation-of-solar-insolation

typhoony

typhoony wrote: »

Must admit I thought we'd get one final cold spell but I notice GFS trending towards high pressure either directly over Ireland or nearby as we get towards the final days of February into March, some nice spring like weather but some overnight frosts getting burnt off quickly in the mornings. Sounds wonderful

I spoke too soon, last few frames of 12z GFS are eye candy

Gonzo

typhoony wrote: »

I spoke too soon, last few frames of 12z GFS are eye candy

Eye candy for sure and if the above verified we would have a decent chance of snowy days on a widespread level with temperatures below freezing day and night, real powdery snow not hill slop. However I think huge health warnings with that chart, given how the PV has reformed and the Atlantic is back in business, getting to this scenario in just 2 weeks won't be an easy one. This will most likely be nowhere to be seen on the pub run unfortunately.

I would absolutely love to be proven completely wrong on this and we end up getting It. I want to eat my words. After a winter of poorly performing cold spells this would be a great way to finally deliver something decent before we head into Spring proper.

nacho libre

Gonzo wrote: »

Eye candy for sure and if the above verified we would have a decent chance of snowy days on a widespread level with temperatures below freezing day and night, real powdery snow not hill slop. However I think huge health warnings with that chart, given how the PV has reformed and the Atlantic is back in business, getting to this scenario in just 2 weeks won't be an easy one. This will most likely be nowhere to be seen on the pub run unfortunately.

I would absolutely love to be proven completely wrong on this and we end up getting It. I want to eat my words. After a winter of poorly performing cold spells this would be a great way to finally deliver something decent before we head into Spring proper.

I will only start to take interest if ECM get on board with this. We have been here before so often

Gonzo

I have almost zero faith in the above charts. It is also an absolute cold outlier. Majority of the GFS runs are milder than average right to the end and the rest of them are cooler than average or low level cold at best.

PokeHerKing

Gonzo wrote: »

I have almost zero faith in the above charts. It is also an absolute cold outlier. Majority of the GFS runs are milder than average right to the end and the rest of them are cooler than average or low level cold at best.

I would have said the GFS has been keen on heights to Greenland from the 1st of march for about a week now?

The 12z after that is a wet dream but obviously waratah into FI.

Gonzo

PokeHerKing wrote: »

I would have said the GFS has been keen on heights to Greenland from the 1st of march for about a week now?

The 12z after that is a wet dream but obviously waratah into FI.

Just like the cold run at the end of the 12z, I have my doubts about that high pressure too, the Atlantic is very active again so if we do get a bit of high pressure it may be very short lived.

Nqp15hhu

Easterlies appearing again for the first week of March! Was hoping for some Northerlies!

Gonzo

Those easterlies are far from reliable timeframe, surprised the pub run has them again after the 12z but this time they don't really affect Ireland with SE England and France getting the direct hit. I'll be surprised if they are still there by the morning.

sicknotexi

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

Easterlies appearing again for the first week of March! Was hoping for some Northerlies!

I'd take my chances with a decent easterly at this stage. Tonight's gfs para would give us a potent one.

nacho libre

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

Easterlies appearing again for the first week of March! Was hoping for some Northerlies!

You might get your wish yet. The GFS OP and para looks to be going that way in FI. I am still skeptical of it all, but the ECM at day 10 looks fairly similar to the GFS at day 10. I hope we get one last proper cold blast to teach all those who have turned their back on snow a lesson:pac:
Let's see does the GFS have much support among its members

Gonzo

This would be the perfect way to finish 'winter' if we get it even in March. After so many close calls all winter it would be painful to miss out on the final blast yet again. We deserve it after all the snow the UK has gotten this winter in Scotland and eastern England.

Gonzo

The GFS P is a lovely run. Signicantly colder than the easterly we had 2 weeks ago.









One can only dream.

nacho libre

Some people don't rate the GFSP, but it's set to become the operational on March 17th. It would be super if,after chasing a proper cold spell all winter, these charts are realised!

Rebelbrowser

It's in the bag. We should open a dedicated thread;)

pauldry

Think the start of March will be colder than normal. I would be surprised if we do not get any cold after this mild spell. Even though no huge snowfall this Winter the pattern has been fairly cool spells mixed into mild ones. Now the rest of February looks very bad for cold but March will change that I'd be hopeful.

PokeHerKing

Gfs is flat as a pancake on the 0Z unfortunately but im still going to wait in line patiently. Got nowhere else to be.

nacho libre

nacho libre wrote: »

Some people don't rate the GFSP, but it's set to become the operational on March 17th. It would be super if,after chasing a proper cold spell all winter, these charts are realised!

Becoming the operational won't change the weather
The parallel has had the most unverified extremes in FI of them all
That won't change magically on the 17th or the 6th in anticipation for that matter

Meteorite58

That would be a welcome Hp towards the second half of next week after all the wind and rain of late and the forecasted rain over the coming days. Looks a bit cool also so leading to fresher days and frosty nights perhaps and possible fog at times , overall a good deal of dry conditions if this set of charts comes to pass.

GFS not showing the Hp develop as quick as the ECM.

GEM onto the HP scenario also.

typhoony

pauldry wrote: »

Think the start of March will be colder than normal. I would be surprised if we do not get any cold after this mild spell. Even though no huge snowfall this Winter the pattern has been fairly cool spells mixed into mild ones. Now the rest of February looks very bad for cold but March will change that I'd be hopeful.

certainly over the last 10 years March and April have had some cold months, feels different this year that's why I'm going for a High Pressure Dominated month with a milder High in place instead of a cold one.

Gonzo

GFS is as flat as it gets, mainly mild westerlies, fully expected this after yesterdays fairly chilly runs. The extended is showing cold after the 6th of March and this is getting delayed again it seems. We may get some high pressure towards the end of February but this cold spell remains very much in doubt as the cold will most likely plunge into the continent and avoid Ireland.

nacho libre

AuntySnow wrote: »

Becoming the operational won't change the weather
The parallel has had the most unverified extremes in FI of them all
That won't change magically on the 17th or the 6th in anticipation for that matter

If it's verifying as badly as you say, then why are they going ahead with it becoming the Operational. Both the OP and Parallel have churned out eye candy charts this winter that have never verified.

nacho libre

Gonzo wrote: »

GFS is as flat as it gets, mainly mild westerlies, fully expected this after yesterdays fairly chilly runs. The extended is showing cold after the 6th of March and this is getting delayed again it seems. We may get some high pressure towards the end of February but this cold spell remains very much in doubt as the cold will most likely plunge into the continent and avoid Ireland.

The EC46 was never really on board, then again it was not so long ago that it was showing all of Februrary to be blocked, and a settled period for this week. I was sceptical of last nights GFS run because with the Polar Vortex fully recovered it's more likely any high that forms won't be able
to move to a favourable location to bring cold our way ,and it probably won't last too long either.