FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Nqp15hhu

Gonzo wrote: »

GFS is as flat as it gets, mainly mild westerlies, fully expected this after yesterdays fairly chilly runs. The extended is showing cold after the 6th of March and this is getting delayed again it seems. We may get some high pressure towards the end of February but this cold spell remains very much in doubt as the cold will most likely plunge into the continent and avoid Ireland.

There is no evidence of that. It’s not close enough in time to say this with confidence.

I’m going to continue with an optimistic attitude.

US2

Coming to that time of year where I want to see red and orange in the charts Early March 2015 was a scorcher, would love a repeat

Gonzo

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

There is no evidence of that. It’s not close enough in time to say this with confidence.

I’m going to continue with an optimistic attitude.

No evidence of mild westerlies? We're in the middle of a mild pattern for almost a week. FI has seen plenty of high pressure and mild westerlies runs over the past 10 days or more. I've little faith in the high pressure lasting very long if it does happen.

Mild westerlies is the form horse and i'm backing it even if it's not what I want to see at all. I hate the Atlantic but once it gets going it's very difficult to shift. The PV is back in business along with the Atlantic so high pressure/cold weather has a serious uphill struggle to get going right now. We may still get that cold spell in March but the more it gets delayed the more tame it will likely to be and we have our work cut out for us to see a result similar to what the GFS P was showing last night, as lovely as those charts were.

Gonzo

US2 wrote: »

Coming to that time of year where I want to see red and orange in the charts Early March 2015 was a scorcher, would love a repeat

It would worry me if we get another high pressure fest during March/April or early May as we do not benefit from the warmth that early with chilly sea breezes. I would love high pressure throughout Spring but usually when that happens we went up with a pigs ear of a summer and thats exactly what we ended up with last summer after that lovely Spring.

Nqp15hhu

Gonzo wrote: »

No evidence of mild westerlies? We're in the middle of a mild pattern for almost a week. FI has seen plenty of high pressure and mild westerlies runs over the past 10 days or more. I've little faith in the high pressure lasting very long if it does happen.

Mild westerlies is the form horse and i'm backing it even if it's not what I want to see at all. I hate the Atlantic but once it gets going it's very difficult to shift. The PV is back in business along with the Atlantic so high pressure/cold weather has a serious uphill struggle to get going right now. We may still get that cold spell in March but the more it gets delayed the more tame it will likely to be and we have our work cut out for us to see a result similar to what the GFS P was showing last night, as lovely as those charts were.

No you said that any easterly would divert into France

Gonzo

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

No you said that any easterly would divert into France

getting the heights far enough north is often a problem. That's why Spain got all the cold and snow early in January and the recent cold spell the height's were not far enough north either and the trigger low didn't dive south quick enough or far enough. The models have played around with another easterly but quite a few of them have been sending the cold pool into the continent brushing over SE England as what was shown in the pub run last night. The GFS P on the other hand was perfection for us. Let's see what happens over the next week, will the easterly happen, if it happens where will it go, will it continue to get delayed till we're almost in April.

nacho libre

Gonzo wrote: »

getting the heights far enough north is often a problem. That's why Spain got all the cold and snow early in January and the recent cold spell the height's were not far enough north either and the trigger low didn't dive south quick enough or far enough. The models have played around with another easterly but quite a few of them have been sending the cold pool into the continent brushing over SE England as what was shown in the pub run last night. The GFS P on the other hand was perfection for us. Let's see what happens over the next week, will the easterly happen, if it happens where will it go, will it continue to get delayed till we're almost in April.[/QUOT

The story of the winter has been for us to miss out on a direct hit for one reason or another. With the pv back home, the odd of us getting a direct hit are more remote now. I think future models runs will show a high close by, but it won't move NW or NE . I hope i am wrong. I would welcome a settled spell,though, even if it turns out to be brief.

Gonzo

most of the longer range models are still showing the possibility of a cold spell in March but not in a position that favours Ireland. Heights may rise again between Norway and Iceland but that is not great for us, this would send any potential cold spell south-westwards across the continent and into France and possibly Spain again. Other models are suggesting no cold spell but a cool polar maritime north-west to south-east movement of low pressures in March. A great deal of uncertainty but if we do get a spell of high pressure or a cold spell from the east/north I think it will be very short lived.

sicknotexi

That was the worst thing about that last easterly fail. Was always likely to be our last chance of the winter to bring widespread snow. We are looking for a minor miracle now for the models to flip in the next week and give us one more bite at the cherry.

Gonzo

It's similar to last summer, we were so close to warmth or heat much of the time but the Atlantic made sure we got none of it. The Azores high just could not ridge into Ireland at all last summer. Fingers crossed we have better luck with the warmth and sunshine this summer and better luck with the cold and snow next winter. Aside from Spring 2020 the past 12 to 18 months have been dominated by the Atlantic and all the rain with far too much wind, even if the Atlantic hasn't been that active it was still enough to influence our weather almost all the time.

Storm 10

Don't loose faith yet I remember many years ago we were in the Canaries when my parents called to say they had heavy snow in Galway, it was a bitter cold Easter and the wind was very cool coming from the North in the Canaries.

esposito

Storm 10 wrote: »

Don't loose faith yet I remember many years ago we were in the Canaries when my parents called to say they had heavy snow in Galway, it was a bitter cold Easter and the wind was very cool coming from the North in the Canaries.

Nobody wants snow at Easter. It’s a waste, just melts pretty much straight away.

I actually don’t care if we don’t get another cold blast anymore. It’s late Feb now and I am looking forward to Spring and more importantly summer. Really hope we have a decent summer with sustained warmth for 4 or 5 weeks. It has to be better than last summer.

Kunta Kinte

esposito wrote: »

Nobody wants snow at Easter. It’s a waste, just melts pretty much straight away.

I actually don’t care if we don’t get another cold blast anymore. It’s late Feb now and I am looking forward to Spring and more importantly summer. Really hope we have a decent summer with sustained warmth for 4 or 5 weeks. It has to be better than last summer.

Unfortunately it doesn`t. For all we know it Summer 2021 could be just as disappointing as the last 2 years were.

nacho libre

esposito wrote: »

Nobody wants snow at Easter. It’s a waste, just melts pretty much straight away.

r.

If we had a snowstorm to end all snowstorms for Easter i'd welcome it. The snow would be gone quickly, but the snowfall would be remembered for years to come!

Kermit.de.frog

esposito wrote: »

Nobody wants snow at Easter.

nacho libre

As for the latest model output, it looks like a settled period to see out winter for us, no snowy cold spell in early March unfortunately.

PokeHerKing

nacho libre wrote: »

As for the latest model output, it looks like a settled period to see out winter for us, no snowy cold spell in early March unfortunately.

Plenty of time for that high to migrate. If it doesn't ill still enjoy it sitting over us for a week+.

nacho libre

PokeHerKing wrote: »

Plenty of time for that high to migrate. If it doesn't ill still enjoy it sitting over us for a week+.

Well you are likely to get your wish on the latter. There is no sign on the anomaly charts of anything other than a high close by for the first week of March. Maybe that will change by week two when the vortex is forecast to be on the move.

Gonzo

all medium and long range models have dropped the chance of one last cold spell. Unless there is a big shift in the models from out of nowhere we won't be getting that one last cold spell in the first half of March. At best we may see some cold zonality once the high pressure moves away.

nacho libre

Gonzo wrote: »

all medium and long range models have dropped the chance of one last cold spell. Unless there is a big shift in the models from out of nowhere we won't be getting that one last cold spell in the first half of March. At best we may see some cold zonality once the high pressure moves away.

The model ouput for the second week of March may change in a few days once the Strat Polar Vortex moves from Canada over to North East Asia. We may see them playing around with heights moving to the north west, but we would need something exceptional at that stage to keep snow on the ground during the day.

lab man

nacho libre wrote: »

The model ouput for the second week of March may change in a few days once the Strat Polar Vortex moves from Canada over to North East Asia. We may see them playing around with heights moving to the north west, but we would need something exceptional at that stage to keep snow on the ground during the day.

Do u think theres cold weather coming

nacho libre

lab man wrote: »

Do u think theres cold weather coming

Nothing of note, maybe the usual wintry type stuff after a settled period.

Donegal Ken

Anyone holding out for a cold spell will have to wait until next winter. We had our time to get that real cold in and it didnt come to that. A brief cold snap could be possible in March but noting that would get you out of bed. Lets hope summer doesn't come early this year and we have a very warm, humid thundery summer to look forward to.

Gonzo

The past week has seen a complete pattern change throughout Europe to much milder conditions. The cold is now back in it's box in the pole and over in Russia. We had several chances of getting real cold this winter but for Ireland it just did not line up properly. I don't think anyone expected the PV to make such a swift recovery after all the battering it took through the winter but it's back as well formed as it was this day last winter. Will probably open up the Spring T120+ thread within the next week as winter is clearly done in terms of FI. FI charts at this stage are already into the start of Spring.

Gonzo

Gonzo wrote: »

It would worry me if we get another high pressure fest during March/April or early May as we do not benefit from the warmth that early with chilly sea breezes. I would love high pressure throughout Spring but usually when that happens we went up with a pigs ear of a summer and thats exactly what we ended up with last summer after that lovely Spring.

I think the sun being hot compensates for cool breezes. Was fairly refreshing last May actually.

The love for “humid thundery” summers I don’t get. I like heat but I’d be happy to leave a humid thundery 25c Ireland for 30+ central Spain.

Tyrone212

Donegal Ken wrote: »

Anyone holding out for a cold spell will have to wait until next winter. We had our time to get that real cold in and it didnt come to that. A brief cold snap could be possible in March but noting that would get you out of bed. Lets hope summer doesn't come early this year and we have a very warm, humid thundery summer to look forward to.

Unlikely but never say never.

pad199207

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I think the sun being hot compensates for cool breezes. Was fairly refreshing last May actually.

The love for “humid thundery” summers I don’t get. I like heat but I’d be happy to leave a humid thundery 25c Ireland for 30+ central Spain.

I hear ye but sometimes you just can’t beat those humid evenings you can sit outside for much longer into the night rather than the clear skies were temperatures drop much quicker and you have to come indoors after 10pm.

highdef

pad199207 wrote: »

I hear ye but sometimes you just can’t beat those humid evenings you can sit outside for much longer into the night rather than the clear skies were temperatures drop much quicker and you have to come indoors after 10pm.

Couldn't agree more. With few if any of us having summer holidays this year, I for one will welcome warm balmy nights!

highdef

highdef wrote: »

Couldn't agree more. With few if any of us having summer holidays this year, I for one will welcome warm balmy nights!

Not forgetting a glass of chateau neuf du pap or four

Gonzo

Gonzo wrote: »

The past week has seen a complete pattern change throughout Europe to much milder conditions. The cold is now back in it's box in the pole and over in Russia. We had several chances of getting real cold this winter but for Ireland it just did not line up properly. I don't think anyone expected the PV to make such a swift recovery after all the battering it took through the winter but it's back as well formed as it was this day last winter. Will probably open up the Spring T120+ thread within the next week as winter is clearly done in terms of FI. FI charts at this stage are already into the start of Spring.

It was all just unproven speculative bluster by the same internet weather 'stars' and we all fell for it as usual hook line and sinker