FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

pad199207

AuntySnow wrote: »

Not forgetting a glass of chateau neuf du pap or four

Duuuuuh

Slashermcguirk

I am well and truly ready for spring. Mad to see the likes of Berlin and Krakow heading towards +20 degrees this week. Bizarre turn around. I can’t wait for spring now

Hooter23

Donegal Ken wrote: »

Lets hope summer doesn't come early this year and we have a very warm, humid thundery summer to look forward to.

Lets hope summer even arrives...living here it might not even come as has happened nearly every year...I think most people forget what our usual summer is like...im sure they will have the usual forecast on the newspapers soon "3 month heatwave summer on the way" its the same thing every year...

esposito

Hooter23 wrote: »

Lets hope summer even arrives...living here it might not even come as has happened nearly every year...I think most people forget what our usual summer is like...im sure they will have the usual forecast on the newspapers soon "3 month heatwave summer on the way" its the same thing every year...

It’s so important to me that we get a good summer this year as the vast majority of us will not be able to head abroad to get our heat fix for the second year in a row.

Gonzo

Last summer was a disgrace, particularly in the Dublin/Meath/Kildare areas which missed out on just about every bit of warmth that was going throughout the summer from early June to the final day of August, the lack of sunshine was the worst aspect of last summer.

Not expecting this summer to be anything wonderful but surely we should do a bit better than last year in terms of sunshine at least. Hopefully no northern blocking either with lows diving north-east to south-west across Ireland. Even one week of warm sunshine and dry weather would be something. Getting fed up of England enjoying several weeks of continental warmth over the past two summers with Ireland left out with the cool atlantic continuing to feed in misty cloud and rain throughout most summers.

nacho libre

Is the speculative bluster the predictions that were made after the SSW?

From what i' ve read about Strat warmings an initial split greatly increases our chances of a potent cold spell, we instead got a displacement with a lobe in the worst place possible. I don't agree with the idea that next winter will deliver because this one was a kind of teaser winter. It's far more likely we will be back to normal. Still at least in that set up we might get a proper wind storm next winter!

sryanbruen

Gonzo wrote: »

I don't think anyone expected the PV to make such a swift recovery after all the battering it took through the winter but it's back as well formed as it was this day last winter.

Not entirely unexpected. Usually what has happened with SSW events in years past is the major warming occurs and then we either see it non-propagate (nSSW) or propagate (dSSW). The warming cannot go on forever and leaves room for the polar vortex to reform, depending on the point in the season that the major warming has occurred. In this case, the major warming happened in early January just like in 2013 and 2019 - 2013 was a dSSW whilst 2019 was a nSSW but both ended in the stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) reforming at top levels with later than normal final stratospheric warming (FSW) events before the SPV goes into summer hibernation which is typical behaviour of winters with major SSW events and 2020-21 is likely to be no different though of course we never know until it happens. In the case of 2013, despite the stratospheric polar vortex having been reformed, we had an exceptionally blocked troposphere with March 2013 providing some of the deepest -AO/-NAO synoptics observed that only December 2010 of modern times competes with. The 2012-13 FSW did not happen until May 4th which is more than 15 days later than the central date (mean day the reversal happens) of April 15th. In the case of 2019, we saw downward propagation of a strong vortex event that developed during February, unlike the January major SSW event. This would result in an extraordinarily mild February and then a very wet first half to March dominated by westerlies. The 2018-19 FSW did not happen until April 23rd which wasn't quite as late as 2013 but still later than the central date nevertheless.

In fact, it's quite remarkable just how much battering the SPV has taken this winter without fully recovering for so long in the heart of winter. It's the same with the tropospheric polar vortex (TPV) with the Arctic Oscillation near record breaking-ly negative for the winter season. As has been touted already, we've just been incredibly unlucky (or lucky if you hate the cold because important to remember not everybody likes it) that the blocking just never set up quite right to bring in severe cold air from the north or the east. A lot of the time the jet stream has been southerly tracking but we were on the boundary of the cold getting into Scotland where there has been little mild weather since Christmas and the mild air coming up from the south. It has been a very wet winter for England & Wales, comparable to last year's washout. The same is true for some places in this country.

I've gone off on a waffle again good Lord! How some of you read these long and boring posts sometimes is beyond me though it is appreciated ! I don't want to jinx it but... here's to hopefully that long awaited settled period to end February and start of March at last.

nacho libre

esposito wrote: »

It’s so important to me that we get a good summer this year as the vast majority of us will not be able to head abroad to get our heat fix for the second year in a row.

Not a fan of heat personally, unless it comes with the threat of thunder from Biscay. What i would love this Summer is an intense band of thunderstorms to pay us a visit from Biscay

Dickie10

highdef wrote: »

Couldn't agree more. With few if any of us having summer holidays this year, I for one will welcome warm balmy nights!

ill never forget late early July in 2016 one evening midweek myself and a girl i was seeing went for a walk to a local beauty spot and sat out along the Boyne til after 10pm just listening to river ,chatting and a bit of ther antics, it was unreal the heat and humidity at 10pm and still bright, just one of those moments in time , you think "jesus life is class in this country" . in the car going home at 10:45 it was 21 celcius.

What you want is hot non humid days, humid evenings and cool nights.

That’s the dream.

highdef

[Deleted User] wrote: »

What you want is hot non humid days, humid evenings and cool nights.

That’s the dream.

Depends on your preferences. I would love hot days (humid or not humid, I don't mind), warm humid evenings and warm nights. Basically warm or hot all the time. If I fancya cooler bedroom, I'll switch on the air conditioner.

highdef

highdef wrote: »

Depends on your preferences. I would love hot days (humid or not humid, I don't mind), warm humid evenings and warm nights. Basically warm or hot all the time. If I fancya cooler bedroom, I'll switch on the air conditioner.

Bit rough on the vast majority who don’t have air conditioning.

PokeHerKing

Deleted User wrote: »

Bit rough on the vast majority who don’t have air conditioning.

Which id have thought was 99% of the island :pac:

highdef

Deleted User wrote: »

Bit rough on the vast majority who don’t have air conditioning.

Not really, if no air conditioner on, I just throw off the sheets and wear as little as possible. That does the job perfectly well too.

Birdnuts

Gonzo wrote: »

Last summer was a disgrace, particularly in the Dublin/Meath/Kildare areas which missed out on just about every bit of warmth that was going throughout the summer from early June to the final day of August, the lack of sunshine was the worst aspect of last summer.

Not expecting this summer to be anything wonderful but surely we should do a bit better than last year in terms of sunshine at least. Hopefully no northern blocking either with lows diving north-east to south-west across Ireland. Even one week of warm sunshine and dry weather would be something. Getting fed up of England enjoying several weeks of continental warmth over the past two summers with Ireland left out with the cool atlantic continuing to feed in misty cloud and rain throughout most summers.

Its was the dullest summer ever at Dublin Airport - summers like that make the following winter seem even longer than normal:(

sicknotexi

Deleted User wrote: »

What you want is hot non humid days, humid evenings and cool nights.

That’s the dream.

3 weeks from now- freezing our bollocks off with not a flake of snow.

Xenji

Deleted User wrote: »

What you want is hot non humid days, humid evenings and cool nights.

That’s the dream.

It does not work unfortunately, usually it ends up with near 100% humidity during the day and outside it's grey and you have persistent heavy drizzle leaving everything feeling sticky and you needing to wear too many layers when you have to go outside.

Then you get that lovely warm spell once or twice over summer that provides temperatures in the mid to high 20s and still it's 90% or above humidity during the day and by midnight it's hovering around 20C and at 100% humidity.

You cannot win here due to the high humidity during the summer, May seems to provide the best balance or early in September.

highdef

Xenji wrote: »

Then you get that lovely warm spell once or twice over summer that provides temperatures in the mid to high 20s and still it's 90% or above humidity during the day and by midnight it's hovering around 20C and at 100% humidity.

Not perfect but I'll take that!

Rebelbrowser

It's been 3 and a half pages since a chart was posted! And yes I get the irony of complaining about posts lacking charts in a post which itself.. ..

Gonzo

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

It's been 3 and a half pages since a chart was posted! And yes I get the irony of complaining about posts lacking charts in a post which itself.. ..

It's a rather pear shaped end to winter, most people have given up looking for decent cold and are looking forward to Spring. Despite all the promise this winter had very little to show for it in comparison. This winter did spark alot of debate as we got very close to something special but just could not pull it off. Last year's version of this thread has only 30+ pages of debate as we basically had no winter last year. This year we are at 236 pages. The cold spell at the start of of February generated over 200 pages by itself yet most places barely saw a skim of snow.

As for the FI charts right now, model watching has become painful recently just watching that area of high pressure get moved around Europe with it's positioning just changing slightly day by day and the Atlantic rolling through Ireland to Scotland.

Currently we look set to stay very mild with temperatures generally well above average into the first week of March, this could get extended into the second week of March. It is possible we could have a very mild to warm March indeed if this very mild spell continues for several for weeks.



We have a very wet spell coming up between tomorrow and Wednesday/Thursday. After that high pressure should start to dry things out hopefully with things settling down properly by next weekend.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_54_1.png



The high pressure persists and strengthens through the following week.



Staying mild or very mild throughout, by this stage we may begin to have chillier nights with frost and fog but daytime temperatures should hold up well with strong Spring sunshine.

We finish up with the high weakening over us and winds going into a gentle south-east flow, temperatures still fairly mild overall.



All in all once we get this very wet spell over this week, Spring looks like it will really get going from next weekend and it may persist for a week or two.

windows 7 home premium

Hopefully we will get some sunny weather. The ground could really do with it, its completely waterlogged and flooding is becoming an issue.

Gonzo

windows 7 home premium wrote: »

Hopefully we will get some sunny weather. The ground could really do with it, its completely waterlogged and flooding is becoming an issue.

Once we get past Thursday it should become much drier for hopefully an extended period of time.

GFS 10 day precipitation chart: almost all this precipitation will fall over the next 3 days with very little rain after that. Western areas are going to have a particularly wet spell over just a 72 to 96 hour period.

Gonzo

big change on tonights GFS pub run, we've had a bit of a model wobble in terms of the high and dry weather. We briefly get high pressure then the Atlantic soon moves in and brings potentially stormy and very unsettled weather. With the PV back in business I wouldn't be surprised if this has alot of truth to it. It was hard to imagine the high pressure staying put over us.

mcburns07

Great, more rain is just what we needed here in Cork

End of week looking dry enough. this coming weekend should be good, a bit cool, but Spring like.

JCX BXC

mcburns07 wrote: »

Great, more rain is just what we needed here in Cork

Ah, it's just one chart. Nothing written in stone yet.

PokeHerKing

JCX BXC wrote: »

Ah, it's just one chart. Nothing written in stone yet.

Yes , dry settled and frosty back on the cards already. With the potential for something a little more interesting in FI.

Meteorite58

Much calmer outlook on the ECM +120 to +240hrs, not totally dry but meagre amounts compared to the last couple of weeks. Bit cooler, some frosty nights in places.

Rebelbrowser

Both the 12z ECM and 18z GFS aren't far away from an easterly by 6 March (ECM only goes to 4 March but shows promise and GFS easterly is a near miss - but still...)

Larbre34

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

I’m sorry. But I just don’t agree or believe that winter and cold weather is gone. Snow is almost guaranteed here in March.

I expect the cold to return in the next two or three weeks.

Hows this working out?