FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

JanuarySnowstor

Does anyone else feel we are just going around in circles!!
Cold but not cold enough, frosty but no snow!!
Like in a way if it's not going to snow what's the benefit to this cold....argh!!

JanuarySnowstor

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Does anyone else feel we are just going around in circles!!
Cold but not cold enough, frosty but no snow!!
Like in a way if it's not going to snow what's the benefit to this cold....argh!!

I think you're lacking in patience and that's understandable
I didn't see the 00Z GFS
But there's absolutely nothing wrong with this evolution from the 12Z

nacho libre

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Does anyone else feel we are just going around in circles!!
Cold but not cold enough, frosty but no snow!!
Like in a way if it's not going to snow what's the benefit to this cold....argh!!

Some places have seen snow already, and some more places could get some over night, and over the next seven days.

If this very cold air could sink south and pay us a visit, i think we'd all be happy

Reckless Abandonment

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Does anyone else feel we are just going around in circles!!
Cold but not cold enough, frosty but no snow!!
Like in a way if it's not going to snow what's the benefit to this cold....argh!!

Its always like this. Even with the big events. its always at day 10 .. then boom. Plenty of time for things to fall into place.

Kermit.de.frog

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Does anyone else feel we are just going around in circles!!
Cold but not cold enough, frosty but no snow!!
Like in a way if it's not going to snow what's the benefit to this cold....argh!!

It will snow just not in Cork

Nah only kidding.

There will be opportunities for snow in various places over the next 10 - 14 days i'm sure. All the models show just that.

Kermit.de.frog

Good, good

Rebelbrowser

The epic 1987 easterly started on 11 Jan if memory serves....

Rebelbrowser

Not the worst ME outlook either, especially like the last bit
"...NATIONAL FORECAST

Issued at: 01 January 2021 15:57

TODAY - FRIDAY 1ST JANUARY

Cold this evening with frost and ice forming quickly after dark. It'll be mostly dry and clear with just isolated showers in parts of the west and north.

TONIGHT

Widespread frost and ice tonight. Much of the country will be dry early in the night with clear skies and just isolated showers in the west and north. Later in the night, a more organised band of wintry showers will move in to affect the north and northwest, spreading southwards over the country towards dawn on Saturday. A dusting of snow is possible in places by Saturday morning. Minimum temperatures ranging -3 to 0 degrees in light northwest winds with some fog patches.

TOMORROW - SATURDAY 2ND JANUARY

Cold and icy on Saturday morning with wintry showers spreading southwards over the country. There'll be a mix of sunny spells and wintry showers for the afternoon. A mostly dry evening with frost and ice returning quickly after dark. Maximum temperatures of 2 to 5 degrees in moderate northerly breezes.

NATIONAL OUTLOOK

Headline: Staying very cold through this weekend and into next week. Widespread hard frosts by night with icy patches on untreated surfaces.

Saturday night: Very cold on Saturday night with a widespread sharp ground frost and some icy patches. Dry and clear in most areas with just a few wintry showers affecting coastal regions. Overnight lows of -5 to plus 1 degrees, in light northerly winds.

Sunday: Frost and icy stretches will be slow to clear on Sunday morning. A largely sunny day is expected in most places, although cloud and possibly a few showers may push in along eastern coasts during the afternoon. Temperatures through the day will rise only just above freezing in some places, with afternoon highs of just 2 to 4 degrees generally in a light to moderate northerly breeze, reaching 4 to 6 degrees in the northwest where winds will be fresh at times closer to the coast.

Sunday night: Minimum temperatures are expected to be between -3 and +2 degrees, coldest in the west with frost and icy patches. A light to moderate northeast breeze will keep temperatures above freezing on the east coast, but it will also bring showers to eastern coastal counties, some possibly heavy with hail and turning wintry over higher ground. Stay largely dry and clear elsewhere.

Monday: Dry with long spells of cold winter sunshine for much of midlands, west and north on Monday, with frost and icy stretches slow to clear in the morning. Cloudier periods will occur in the east and south, with frequent showers mainly affecting east Leinster and turning wintry over higher ground. Very cold once again, with afternoon highs of just 2 or 3 degrees, but temperatures will be a little higher near northern and eastern coasts. Light to moderate northeast winds, will be occasionally fresh and gusty near the east coast.

Monday Night: Often cloudy conditions in parts of the east Monday night, with wintry showers persisting near the east coast. Elsewhere, it will be a dry and cold night with long clear spells. Lows of -3 to +2 degrees. Light to moderate northeast breezes with some freezing fog possible in the southwest.

Tuesday: Cloudy at times in eastern and southern parts of the country, with showers, some wintry, affecting eastern coastal regions, with generally sunny spells elsewhere. Afternoon highs again struggling in the low single digits in many places at just 1 to 3 degrees, but up to 4 or 5 degrees near the coast in light to moderate northeast breezes.

Tuesday night: Showers on the east coast will largely die out leaving just some patchy cloud and good long clear spells across the country. Another hard frost will set it with lows of -4 to 0 degrees.

Further Outlook: Remaining very cold for the rest of the week with further wintry showers or long or longer spells of sleet or snow at times. Day time temperatures will mostly struggle to get above freezing with hard frost at night continuing...."

Snowbiee21

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Good, good

17th tomorrow.

pad199207

Snowbiee21 wrote: »

17th tomorrow.

We will give him a chance, just say the 13th for now

Snowbiee21

Feel like we are pissing in the wind lately, bad charts good charts bad charts good charts. Every day it seems to fetch out a day or two

Billcarson

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Does anyone else feel we are just going around in circles!!
Cold but not cold enough, frosty but no snow!!
Like in a way if it's not going to snow what's the benefit to this cold....argh!!

Frustrating somewhat but better then Atlantic muck any day

Kermit.de.frog

pad199207 wrote: »

We will give him a chance, just say the 13th for now

Ah sure you'll get your fix tomorrow morning, should keep you going for a couple of days. Try and hang in there :cool:

redsteveireland

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Ah sure you'll get your fix tomorrow morning, should keep you going for a couple of days. Try and hang in there :cool:

Newbridge or nowhere

pistolpetes11

I follow Matt Hugo on Twitter and although a bias towards winter weather I did find this interesting ( just in relation to the p in the wind mentions )


Matt Hugo :
Thinking out aloud, but given yesterday's 12Z EC strat plots there's room for argument that we may see a more unsettled spell, with some W'ly 'push' before any impacts from the SSW are felt. This occuring as the main vortex is pushed to the Atlantic side of the pole... This has happened before prior to the influence from a SSW making an appearance. Difficult to say whether it will or won't, given how disconnect the strat and trop have been so far this winter, but it is something to just bear in mind.

nacho libre

Could be a bit of snow for some if this chart was realised:pac: Too bad it won't happen.

Also by the next day or two you could have the classic ingredients in place for a prolonged cold spell, but i think we are going to have a relatively milder spell mid month, but i will be very surprised if we get an extended zonal spell. The Atlantic is on its knees. Its not often we see a NH profile like this.

Cork2021

Hmmmmmm

https://twitter.com/metclimate/status/1345109847432433665?s=21

carltonleon

Excuse my ignorance, but what exactly does that mean?

Nqp15hhu

carltonleon wrote: »

Excuse my ignorance, but what exactly does that mean?

Rossby Waves (large, waves in the atmosphere. Thousands of miles wide) penetrate the stratospheric polar jet stream and decelerate it. This weakens the jet contributing to the formation of meanders and thus the release of colder air.

Meteorite58

ECM 0Z moved away from the deeper cold for next weekend with the Atlantic High pushing in over us, GFS colder but goes on to park the blocking high close to us or over us with a far less cold outlook but that is FI.

UKMO is about the most interesting in the short term but still just outside +120 hrs showing a snowy set up around Thurs . ECM showing some frontal activity also moving down from the NW but not as potent .

rooney30

Doesn’t sound too great now . Dr Jekyl and Mr Hyde this thread is !

pauldry

Yes certainly a bad set of runs for cold spell to last. Looks likely now that it will be dry and less cold around the 9th or 10th. Maybe cold will bite back in next set of runs

Gonzo

this cold spell is fairly pathetic and looks like very little change with just low level cold until the mild rolls back after next weekend. Hopefully we get another shot in February.

ninebeanrows

Gonzo wrote: »

this cold spell is fairly pathetic and looks like very little change with just low level cold until the mild rolls back after next weekend. Hopefully we get another shot in February.

Ah here @Gonzo this cold spell has just begun!

Villain

Gonzo wrote: »

this cold spell is fairly pathetic and looks like very little change with just low level cold until the mild rolls back after next weekend. Hopefully we get another shot in February.

It certainly has been a let down who jumped at big snowfall forecasts in FI but it’s far better than mild muck from the West.

I would caution that we had an SSW event last year that didn’t do anything for snow fans so an SSW doesn’t promise anything but it does increase chances and I think the second half of January offers hope, but that’s all it is for now.

pad199207

Gonzo wrote: »

this cold spell is fairly pathetic and looks like very little change with just low level cold until the mild rolls back after next weekend. Hopefully we get another shot in February.

I know it’s very quick and easy to revert back to default when there’s new trends in the models. However I’d say wait until this evenings runs to lose faith.

Villain

Villain wrote: »

It certainly has been a let down who jumped at big snowfall forecasts in FI but it’s far better than mild muck from the West.

I would caution that we had an SSW event last year that didn’t do anything for snow fans so an SSW doesn’t promise anything but it does increase chances and I think the second half of January offers hope, but that’s all it is for now.

I think I saw Judith coen tweet a daughter vortex dropping to Scandinavia and another to ConUS,I don't have time to look for it
That would be ideal and salvage this
At any rate I think its coincidental that we already got a blocking Atlantic high before a strat warm event
The two events, our current cold and the aftermath of a strat warm are separate events
Thats clear now
It wasn't last week
Its clear because models are trying to break down that Atlantic high even the Ecm is,which is counter to the idea that our current blocking episode is caused by the start of the strat warm
The pv winds have been weak a while for other global reasons, probably la nina amongst others

Oneiric 3

I don't put much stock in SSW events. They often seem overhyped and oversold by those talking about them. That is not to say that there is not something to them, but... I really just don't care enough to care.

One thing that annoys me about Meteorologists when they talk about SSW events, is that they never explain how that warming occurs. Is it a warmth that created by conditions on the ground, or some other source? It's never made quite clear, but there seems to be a trend that they start somewhere over Iberia and end up in NE Russia.

sryanbruen

God lads, it's FI for a reason. I understand the disappointment but there is no need to get your knickers in a twist. In blocking situations, there will always be many changes to the exact scenarios. Remember how long it took before models latched on this coming week's easterly? People have rose tinted glasses now on the 2018 Beast from the East event being smooth sailing. Let me tell you, it certainly was not. It too had its changes every now and then with many comments on models backdating instead of things being brought forward. I remember this vividly because there was so much pessimism leading up to it. There were 3 peaks of uncertainty as well and each one coincided with 3 peaks in stratospheric warming before it started to calm down and the certainty built after 17 February with the odd run showing the anticyclone too far south.

Those 18z runs discussed previously were highly unlikely. They just were, those were best case scenarios. Same with some other runs. Perfect amplification to allow the flooding of cold air south. Whilst it is looking now that the GFS FI suggesting height rises over Europe may verify for mid-January, it was quite ridiculous to think of such with amplified blocking to our north. That is not looking the case now as the trend of late since my last post has been more of a mid-Atlantic ridge than a full on Greenland blocking feature. This will mean a flatter pattern overall and not enough to descend the country into the much plead for (on here) big freeze which was again unlikely, that some runs suggested.

As for sudden stratospheric warming, it is ongoing and set to become a major event (reversal at 60N) in a few days or so time. The stratospheric polar vortex is in the process of displacing from the North Pole at a similar time to that of the 2013 major SSW event and likely to reverse at a similar time too. The 2013 event took a week before it evolved into a split. If we do see a split this time, the similarities are likely to continue there.

What does the SSW event mean for us? Well it is all about where those vortices sit, displaced or split. Stratosphere and troposphere placements of ridges and troughs do not always correlate but with a major SSW event like this, more than likely they will. Historically, stratospheric warming events increase the risk of blocking in the higher latitudes which gives an increased risk of cold spells for Europe but it's not always as straightforward as that due to a few things:

1. Where the blocking sits.
2. If the warming downwells to the troposphere.

The 2018 SSW event was an extreme example of both a monster anticyclone to the north that retrogressed from Siberia to North America in the space of 2 weeks going completely against the zonal flow and the severe cold airmass associated that was brought in from Russia via a polar continental airflow. It was also an example of a quick tropospheric response with the major SSW event central date (day of reversal) being on 12 February 2018 and impacts were felt as soon as 9-10 days after as the Scandinavian High began to form. There is no comparison to that at the moment. 2013 is a better comparison but at the same time, all major SSW events are unique.

If we see downward propagation, which models like the Glosea5 do show occurring, the SSW event is likely to either prolong or reinforce the blocking unless we see something like a 2018 where the retrogression is strong enough to play against chances of a very cold spell in Europe. It is this that I am watching out for to result in a displacement (or retrogression) of the stubborn Russian high that has been chillaxing in its hammock for the past two months over there. We usually see a milder period before the effects of a major SSW event are felt down on the surface as happened in 2018 after a cold start to February. Again only using this as a reference point, not a comparison so do not start thinking a 2018 repeat on the way, definitely not.

Let the SSW do its thing and watch out for where the blocking sits in the second half of January if we do see a tropospheric response. If we don't and see a sudden collapse of all the blocking, it would possibly be the biggest flop there has been and bigger than December 2012. Fortunately (or unfortunately depending on your point of view with cold spells/snowfalls), that is highly unlikely.

Hooter23

The SSW event might have more of an effect this time though as the kind of weather pattern it causes is already in place...all its needs now is a little push to turn the cold we have now into a more extreme event