FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

ninebeanrows

Interesting GFS 6z, keeps things very much open for sig cold period.

Sleety_Rain

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

Interesting GFS 6z, keeps things very much open for sig cold period.

I notice aswell that the NWS in their published discussions on forecasts are emphasising a lot of uncertainty on features over there for as early as wenesday that impacted the 0z's
They're mainly using the gfs and referring to the gefs ensembles as the reason for their uncertainty

Nqp15hhu

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

That’s par for the course on here. One bad chart run and all toys thrown out of the pram. Nothing new. It’s particularly ridiculous because people know even if the forecast for us was to be in the freezer a week away, you have to wait until a few days out for confirmation. However as soon as milder weather shows, no such confirmation is needed. Truly bizarre

Exactly. You have to look at all the runs over time.

nacho libre

Who would not love the last two GFS runs to verify if you love snow and want the cold to keep going. The charts are the holy grail for a snow lover.

Unfortunately, they are unlikely to be right for two reasons: The UKMO and ECM are more accurate overall in the verification stakes.
Also the ECM and UKMO are likely to have a better handle on the impact of strat events over the GFS.
In such a standoff it's nearly always the GFS that moves towards the UKMO and ECM.
However, the done talk is premature because often before the final impacts of a SSW on our weather, we see what is depicted by the ECM come to pass before a return of colder weather.

Hopefully, i am completely wrong and the ECM and UKMO move towards the GFS during the day.

SeaBreezes

Whats ICON saying? I like ICON for setting the trend longer term. Other models more accurate then in shorter term.
Of course, basing this on very little observation.

John.Icy

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

That’s par for the course on here. One bad chart run and all toys thrown out of the pram. Nothing new. It’s particularly ridiculous because people know even if the forecast for us was to be in the freezer a week away, you have to wait until a few days out for confirmation. However as soon as milder weather shows, no such confirmation is needed. Truly bizarre

Who's throwing their toys out of the pram? I'm seeing plenty of run-by-run discussion, as is the norm for a model output discussion thread? People are saying what they are seeing. The ECM this morning was a stinker for cold. UKMO also collapsing the high over us. Does look possible we'll have a milder incursion coming up. Cold might have to wait. The GFS remains full of potential. And yes, typically when milder charts show up there is more confidence of them occurring as that would be typical winter weather here. There's good precedence why people need cold spells at +72 on the charts! The majority are signposting that the models are struggling and there's an SSW possibly in play. Even the post that triggered you two said we might have to look further ahead. Not exactly writing the winter off.

Nothing is decided as of yet and as far as I can see and read, most are on the same sheet. Toys firmly inside the pram.

Oneiric 3

This is the last chart on the GFS run, way out and highly unlikely to verify, but... if it did, we'd be looking at something potentially special knocking on our doorstep. Just look the extent of that cold building up in the near Arctic:

Gaoth Laidir

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

This is the last chart on the GFS run, way out and highly unlikely to verify, but... if it did, we'd be looking at something potentially special knocking on our doorstep. Just look the extent of that cold building up in the near Arctic:

Just to highlight that a chart showing 850 hPa heights and temperatures over Greenland is as useful as an 18Z GFS run. There are is no 850 hPa level over most of Greenland as the top of the glacier is as high as 3200 m (~650 hPa).

But still plenty of cold up north of us alright if someone can find that old guy with the key to the floodgates...

Gonzo

this mornings GFS looks interesting, could well keep the cold spell into next week with it and an increasing risk of wintry precipitation with lows diving from north to south next weekend and on into the following week. That ECM brings the cold spell to an end this weekend, hopefully the ECM this evening will be more promising.

pad199207

The next hour or two will bring either disaster or delight

munsterlegend

pad199207 wrote: »

The next hour or two will bring either disaster or delight

Or a mixture of both.

pad199207

munsterlegend wrote: »

Or a mixture of both.

I can’t do both anymore at this stage. It has to be one or the other :rolleyes:

Kermit.de.frog

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Whats ICON saying? I like ICON for setting the trend longer term. Other models more accurate then in shorter term.
Of course, basing this on very little observation.

It's broadly similar to the UKMO and would be a return to more Atlantic influence but how long it would last is anyone's guess.

We need a good ECM later today tbh.

pad199207

I have feeling lads that we may actually have a Dec 2012 on our hands, in fact it could end up even worse...

Kermit.de.frog

pad199207 wrote: »

I have feeling lads that we may actually have a Dec 2012 on our hands, in fact it could end up even worse...

lol your mood changes with the weather :pac:

Billcarson

First 12z out ,the icon, = milder next weekend, poor start.
Now onto the gfs.........

John.Icy

pad199207 wrote: »

I have feeling lads that we may actually have a Dec 2012 on our hands, in fact it could end up even worse...

Outside of a couple of runs here and there though, we've never really been offered *that* much from the charts really beyond the little easterly ongoing, especially in terms of a consistent pattern. A lot of the hopes are being based on background signals, favourable hemisphere patterns and potential effects of an SSW!

Didn't that 2012 spell have a stonking Easterly right up till somewhere between 70-100 h? That stings a lot more than lovely day 10 charts and some crazy ensemble members not coming to fruition. Still, we are in the game.

Gonzo

most of the charts over the past few days have certainly not being very inspiring and a return to mild will probably be here sooner rather than later, now with all models currently looking at bringing the mild in at some stage over the next 5 to 10 days.

If we are back in the mild by this time next week, hopefully it won't take too long for another cold spell to emerge and for proper cold to be abundant next time around.

The CFS for what it's worth is still playing with the idea of a severe cold spell later in the winter. A decent easterly even as late as early April can deliver a cold spell that is better than the tame efforts of this current bland and mostly dry cold spell.



Above very unlikely to verify however there is still hope that we may get there yet before March.

John.Icy

You know we are struggling for some eye candy when someone whips out the ol' CFS +1000 h

BLIZZARD7

No backtrack from the UKMO, GFS has shifted slightly towards the Euro models

ninebeanrows

those low heights just arent draining out of Labrador and Greenland as per the 6z GFS

So difficult to get good height rises in Greenland area these past winters.

Kermit.de.frog

UKMO actually keeps the country in the current cold regime until 144 hrs. A small improvement on the 00z.

BLIZZARD7

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

UKMO actually keeps the country in the current cold regime until 144 hrs. An improvement on the 00z.

Yes, at the surface it would still feel cold and wintry under the high. I would still imagine any break from the cold or warm up that does appear will be short lived with the SSW in play. Lots more twists and turns to come.

Snowbiee21

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

UKMO actually keeps the country in the current cold regime until 144 hrs. A small improvement on the 00z.

Would prefer the mild weather than this cold regime this is shocking lol

Billcarson

Cant see any proper cold spell until after the ssw,we will just have bide our time and wait.

sicknotexi

It's looking very likely we will get milder next weekend but up until then lets hope there are a few snowy surprises and after that we can get some proper cold and snow in. The latest uk met update points towards the end of January been cold. We are still in a far favourable position than previous winters.

Kermit.de.frog

We could probably do with a (short) reset anyway and get some cold pooling in place. Better it happens now than end of January for snow fans.

A lot of volatility over the couple weeks with the models maybe.

ninebeanrows

EC often follows GEM

This is not the reset I'd want at 240hrs

Humberto Salazar

Just see what we can get out of the next 7 days, then step away from the models and rejoin them around the 13th. I've tried this before , but I always sneak back for a look in FI nearly every run. The addiction is real.

lostweekend3

Humberto Salazar wrote: »

Just see what we can get out of the next 7 days, then step away from the models and rejoin them around the 13th. I've tried this before , but I always sneak back for a look in FI nearly every run. The addiction is real.

Very hard to step away from model watching these days with smartphones, tablets etc. The temptation is too much. Looks less cold by Saturday alright. Not overly mild though. 12Z ECM will most likely stick to its guns so won’t be any nasty surprises anyway ( less cold by weekend) Hopefully the SSW affects us favourably end of Jan into Feb. More patience required unfortunately