FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Gonzo

looks like a return to milder is on the table from this weekend and snow risk is greatly reduced overall. A reset is probably the best scenario going forward and hopefully we will get much better luck next time.

Billcarson

For all we know this time next month we could be in the middle of the mother of all beasts..........

Kermit.de.frog

It will probably be volatile for the next while with the models but it can all change fast again and the coldest winters have always had temporary return to traditional zonal flows. Just a fact of life here.

Rebelbrowser

Still think there could be decent snow for some this week, whether streamers in the east or that front on Thursday for the west

compsys

Gonzo wrote: »

looks like a return to milder is on the table from this weekend and snow risk is greatly reduced overall. A reset is probably the best scenario going forward and hopefully we will get much better luck next time.

For me that may be no bad thing.

I LOVE snow but the recent weather, in Dublin at least, has mainly been very cold rain - it hasn't even been overly dry.

If there's not gonna be a half decent snowfall I'd personally prefer milder weather and lower heating bills!

Still plenty of time for action of course - some of our best snowfalls occur well into February.

sicknotexi

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

EC often follows GEM

This is not the reset I'd want at 240hrs

Worth mentioning that same run gives us some snow chances next week.

icesnowfrost

Still plenty of snow chances next week nothing major but still a chance. Don’t be surprised if the models do a flip by Tuesday.

Rebelbrowser

icesnowfrost wrote: »

Still plenty of snow chances next week nothing major but still a chance. Don’t be surprised if the models do a flip by Tuesday.

Exactly, and typically we get about two of those weeks a year so let's not overlook the short term (and yes I know this is the FI thread)

Kermit.de.frog

ECM would appear to confirm a sort of breakdown but it's not exactly raging zonality either so in the circumstances happy with that. Not without interest in the latter stages in terms of how things might evolve.

JanuarySnowstor

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

ECM would appear to confirm a sort of breakdown but it's not exactly raging zonality either so in the circumstances happy with that. Not without interest in the latter stages in terms of how things might evolve.

Breakdown of what, a nights frost lol
Let's face it this cold spell had delivered nothing but cold sunshine

nacho libre

The mood might not be so gloomy if the ECM went on to show day 12 or 13. That high might want to move way from Ireland.
If we are looking for further positives there is a cold pool building further east. It could all amount to diddly squat, but I still remain hopeful this will be a temporary bump in the road before a proper colder push.

Kermit.de.frog

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Breakdown of what, a nights frost lol
Let's face it this cold spell had delivered nothing but cold sunshine

We have had really proper frosts and ice here as well as a bit of snow. It's been a cold airmass. Looks like it will break down by the weekend.

Rebelbrowser

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

We have had really proper frosts and ice here as well as a bit of snow. It's been a cold airmass. Looks like it will break down for the weekend.

Absolutely. Even down here we had snow on Thurs morning and heavy all day frost this morning and, inevitably, tomorrow also. And there could yet be snow this week. JS, you set your ambitions too high!

bazlers

I wouldnt be surprised if the pub run shakes things up again to be honest.

Humberto Salazar

bazlers wrote: »

I wouldnt be surprised if the pub run shakes things up again to be honest.

It might. But the hangover runs tomorrow morning will sort that. It's getting less cold from end of this week into the weekend. And this whole spell, while better than endless wind and rain, has been a non event really. Nice hard frosts and sunshine. A ten minute snow flurry. And that's it.

Meteorite58

Well ECM was on it first about the weekend being less cold and held fast, UKMO very similar now too, GFS now following suit as does the GEM.

Not as cold but not warm either, bit wet at times but amounts below avg, not too much wind showing up in the early days of next week. After the frosty nights over the weekend looks like not as cold at night but touch of frost possible in a few spots going by the last couple of runs.

Would appear that the cold is digging in in N Europe and Siberia, will see if that makes an impression over the coming days.

ninebeanrows

ECMWF main run is at the very top of the ensemble range after Thursday, but the control run follows it.

However, large cluster keep things cold,

Main message? Things are still up in the air

bazlers

Humberto Salazar wrote: »

It might. But the hangover runs tomorrow morning will sort that. It's getting less cold from end of this week into the weekend. And this whole spell, while better than endless wind and rain, has been a non event really. Nice hard frosts and sunshine. A ten minute snow flurry. And that's it.

You could be right but i think the warmer interlude will be put on hold for a considerable length of time.

Neddyusa

Humberto Salazar wrote: »

It might. But the hangover runs tomorrow morning will sort that. It's getting less cold from end of this week into the weekend. And this whole spell, while better than endless wind and rain, has been a non event really. Nice hard frosts and sunshine. A ten minute snow flurry. And that's it.

Absolute bliss compared to normal Irish winter weather!

White Clover

Neddyusa wrote: »

Absolute bliss compared to normal Irish winter weather!

In fairness this spell of weather has been a good compromise. Cold for those who like cold and dry for those who don't want the disruption and danger that comes with heavy snow or heavy rain.

piplip87

Neddyusa wrote: »

Absolute bliss compared to normal Irish winter weather!

Able to walk the dogs in the morning and not require a full on clean of the house afterwards. The lovely winter sunshine long may it continue.

sicknotexi

Gfs para showing snowy conditons thursday night/friday morning.

Danno

Something strange about that 18z output, a 965hPa "hurricane" with -25c uppers spawning out of nothing just north of Iceland next Saturday. Strange.

Kermit.de.frog

Is there anything to be said for another mass?

pad199207

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Is there anything to be said for another mass?

Pass the Valium when you’ve finished with it will ya...

JCX BXC

That's a fairly bizzare run.

Just 4 hours until the 00Z

Mafra

Judging by the cobwebs accumulating on here this morning, I take it the news is not good..

Gonzo

Mafra wrote: »

Judging by the cobwebs accumulating on here this morning, I take it the news is not good..

not good if you want cold and snow. A definite warming trend sets in from this weekend and milder than average temperatures may return by the middle of next week with temperatures hitting 10 or 11C by the end of next week with +5 uppers at times. It does cool down slightly towards the end with a typical Atlantic north-west to south-east movement. Winter gets shoved well into eastern Europe and down into Greece and Turkey. However this is probably the sort of reset we need as we were getting nowhere fast with the current cold spell and hopefully we will be in with a shot of something proper in February.

US2

Gonzo wrote: »

not good if you want cold and snow. A definite warming trend sets in from this weekend and milder than average temperatures may return by the middle of next week with temperatures hitting 10 or 11C by the end of next week with +5 uppers at times. It does cool down slightly towards the end with a typical Atlantic north-west to south-east movement. Winter gets shoved well into eastern Europe and down into Greece and Turkey. However this is probably the sort of reset we need as we were getting nowhere fast with the current cold spell and hopefully we will be in with a shot of something proper in February.

Great news for those of us who aren't fond of cold. Be great if we saw the last of the heavey frosts this week for the rest of the year. A February like 2019 would be lovely given the Covid restrictions.

gerrybhoy

US2 wrote: »

Great news for those of us who aren't fond of cold. Be great if we saw the last of the heavey frosts this week for the rest of the year. A February like 2019 would be lovely given the Covid restrictions.