FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

nacho libre

Mafra wrote: »

Judging by the cobwebs accumulating on here this morning, I take it the news is not good..

Well, some places might see some snow on Thursday night into Friday. Longer term, it does look like it will get milder, but how mild is yet to be determined and for long.
If this SSW currently taking place does work in our favour in terms of bringing full on snow, it maybe anything from 10- 20 days before we see its effects on our weather. So perhaps the last week of January into Februray. It is often the case with a SSW there is a milder push before a cold reload, also given our location milder interludes often occur before cold returns- this happened even in historic cold spells. Indeed some notable cold spells only got going in late January into Feburary. So there are reasons to remain hopeful.

Kermit.de.frog

Baby steps...



We need to see more height rises toward and over GL.

pad199207

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Baby steps...



We need to see more height rises toward and over GL.

Maybe that mass might work

Kermit.de.frog

US2 wrote: »

Great news for those of us who aren't fond of cold. Be great if we saw the last of the heavey frosts this week for the rest of the year. A February like 2019 would be lovely given the Covid restrictions.

:eek:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8r5e3LJa2RI

Nqp15hhu

The cold air next Friday appears to be back on.

Gonzo

probably best to take a break from the models over the next week and hopefully by then we will be in with somewhat more juicy looking charts and perhaps signs if the SSW affects us to any great degree or not. More low level cold for another week and then turning significantly milder from Thursday 15th of January, that is of course 10 days away and unreliable so much can happen between now and then.

I have a feeling this very mild 3rd week of January may not happen, we could find ourselves stuck in no man's land for a while before something definitive happens, either a full swing back to Atlantic and mild or some proper cold and wintry weather heading back our direction.

Humberto Salazar

Gonzo wrote: »

probably best to take a break from the models over the next week and hopefully by then we will be in with somewhat more juicy looking charts and perhaps signs if the SSW affects us to any great degree or not. More low level cold for another week and then turning significantly milder from Thursday 15th of January, that is of course 10 days away and unreliable so much can happen between now and then.

Definitely taking a break. GFS is back to a horror show, HP south of us, steering in drizzly southwesterlies for days on end. Good luck until end of Jan, at least.

bazlers

Gonzo wrote: »

probably best to take a break from the models over the next week and hopefully by then we will be in with somewhat more juicy looking charts and perhaps signs if the SSW affects us to any great degree or not. More low level cold for another week and then turning significantly milder from Thursday 15th of January, that is of course 10 days away and unreliable so much can happen between now and then.

I have a feeling this very mild 3rd week of January may not happen, we could find ourselves stuck in no man's land for a while before something definitive happens, either a full swing back to Atlantic and mild or some proper cold and wintry weather heading back our direction.

Gonzo there is a chart 3 posts up from the 12th

Gonzo

bazlers wrote: »

Gonzo there is a chart 3 posts up from the 12th

that's from the Icon and it is no great shakes either. It's 8 days away and a sliver of cold air brushes past us to the east and milder air from the Atlantic begins to take over much like the GFS.



Everything is generally moving west to east so that cold pool north-east of Iceland will end up sinking down over eastern Europe, possibly south-east Europe too.

nacho libre

Humberto Salazar wrote: »

Definitely taking a break. GFS is back to a horror show, HP south of us, steering in drizzly southwesterlies for days on end. Good luck until end of Jan, at least.

You won't take a break, the temptation to keep looking is too great:p
I'm going to enjoy the cold and dry days left of this cold spell before a milder turn. Hopefully we'll will soon start seeing eye candy charts for the last week of January.

froog

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

The cold air next Friday appears to be back on.

The One Doctor

nacho libre wrote: »

You won't take a break, the temptation to keep looking is too great:p
I'm going to enjoy the cold and dry days left of this cold spell before a milder turn. Hopefully we'll will soon start seeing eye candy charts for the last week of January.

I sincerely hope there won't be cold or snow, this lockdown is going to get worse before it gets better.

nacho libre

The One Doctor wrote: »

I sincerely hope there won't be cold or snow, this lockdown is going to get worse before it gets better.

It's already cold, though. I know things are fairly bleak now, but i see more people out walking during the dry and cold days. Whereas as if we had the default pattern of wind and rain, i think some people might become even more frustrated than they currently might be

munsterlegend

nacho libre wrote: »

It's already cold, though. I know things are fairly bleak now, but i see more people out walking during the dry and cold days. Whereas as if we had the default pattern of wind and rain, i think some people might become even more frustrated than they currently might be

I think I’d nearly prefer the wet days for walking. Lethal the footpaths around here the last few days.

That Met É commentary on the strat is very telling in that career meteorology juries are out still on what effect it might have
Given we have a a blocking pattern of sorts already ,it could end up jolting that blocking back into a mobile westerly pattern again especially if daughter lobes of the pv drop into America or the Atlantic
Theres every chance we end up with a Bartlet in that scenario,with the high drifting SE ,taking up residence in mainland Europe

Humberto Salazar

nacho libre wrote: »

You won't take a break, the temptation to keep looking is too great:p
I'm going to enjoy the cold and dry days left of this cold spell before a milder turn. Hopefully we'll will soon start seeing eye candy charts for the last week of January.

Already had a sneak peak at the T240 chart ECM. Felt guilty and shamed for giving in, and empty having seen it.

Humberto Salazar

AuntySnow wrote: »

That Met É commentary on the strat is very telling in that career meteorology juries are out still on what effect it might have
Given we have a a blocking pattern of sorts already ,it could end up jolting that blocking back into a mobile westerly pattern again especially if daughter lobes of the pv drop into America or the Atlantic
Theres every chance we end up with a Bartlet in that scenario,with the high drifting SE ,taking up residence in mainland Europe

The Bartlet word. We do not speak of this abomination.

munsterlegend

nacho libre wrote: »

It's already cold, though. I know things are fairly bleak now, but i see more people out walking during the dry and cold days. Whereas as if we had the default pattern of wind and rain, i think some people might become even more frustrated than they currently might be

I think I’d nearly prefer the wet days for walking. Lethal the footpaths around here the last few days.

crx===

pad199207 wrote: »

Maybe that mass might work

Gonzo

if GFS verifies it won't be too long before we're back to normal service. Turns milder from this weekend, rather slack conditions next week and then the possibility of the Atlantic being back in business as we head into the final 10 days of January.



However there is also several GFS members going very cold again around the same time period with possibly more outliers going cold than there is for next week.

Billcarson

Our Januarys are like clockwork nowadays. They either start mild and remain mild or start off cold and the cold gives way shortly after to milder weather for the remainder of the month.
That's why my Hope's are pinned on Feb........

Gonzo

Billcarson wrote: »

Our Januarys are like clockwork nowadays. They either start mild and remain mild or start off cold and the cold gives way shortly after to milder weather for the remainder of the month.
That's why my Hope's are pinned on Feb........

ECM extended also going for a return of the Atlantic and shows a considerable weakening of the northern blocking on it's 6 week extended forecast models. It does appear none of these charts are factoring in the possible affects of the SSW further down the line. It will probably be February before we see a change to something colder again.

Billcarson

Gonzo wrote: »

ECM extended also going for a return of the Atlantic and shows a considerable weakening of the northern blocking on it's 6 week extended forecast models. It does appear none of these charts are factoring in the possible affects of the SSW further down the line. It will probably be February before we see a change to something colder again.

Yes and as I keep harping on about is the fact we haven't had a decent proper cold spell in second half of Jan since the 80s.

Gonzo

Gonzo wrote: »

ECM extended also going for a return of the Atlantic and shows a considerable weakening of the northern blocking on it's 6 week extended forecast models. It does appear none of these charts are factoring in the possible affects of the SSW further down the line. It will probably be February before we see a change to something colder again.

In my experience, those postage stamp extended ecms are totally useless
Nearly always wrong

Gonzo

AuntySnow wrote: »

In my experience, those postage stamp extended ecms are totally useless
Nearly always wrong

after week 2 they rarely ever verify but do sometimes give a hint at what's to come. About a month ago the ECM postage stamps were showing this cold spell to stretch all the way from interior Siberia right across to Ireland and this did not happen. We've had a cold spell but a very weak one in terms of cold and lying snow has been mostly restricted to high ground above 500 meters.

Gonzo

Gonzo wrote: »

after week 2 they rarely ever verify but do sometimes give a hint at what's to come. About a month ago the ECM postage stamps were showing this cold spell to stretch all the way from interior Siberia right across to Ireland and this did not happen. We've had a cold spell but a very weak one in terms of cold and lying snow has been mostly restricted to high ground above 500 meters.

Don't be pessimistic though on the 5th of January!
Our current cold spell is random
Let's see what a strat induced pv displacement or split brings in 2 or 3 weeks before getting pessimistic
Its quite the curve ball
It's either going to sink or swim

Reversal

Who's ready to be hurt again?

PokeHerKing

Reversal wrote: »

Who's ready to be hurt again?

CHOO CHOO, only 10 days to go!!

Gonzo

a definite sign of proper cold assembling to our north and north-east over the next 7 to 10 days as we try to get milder. This cold pool is something that we've been missing since the current cold spell began, so if we do get another cold spell over the next few weeks it could be easier for us to tap into considerably colder air than we are currently.

I have a feeling that either last week of January or 1st week of February is when we may have another go at trying to establish proper winter weather.



The GFS extended is hinting at another possible cold spell around this time towards February. Some of the colder outliers are bordering on extreme freezer.

sicknotexi

ECM ended interestingly at 240 hours. Sorry not able to link screenshot. Let's hope it's the precursor to some boom charts in the coming weeks.