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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**
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Tonight's ECM shows how the reset could help get us out of this rut. Vortex displaced across the Atlantic giving us a mobile phase but moves through to Siberia/Scandinavia. This rids us of the Ural high that has served to keep proper cold out of Europe so far.
And once the energy moves through the Atlantic, the ECM wants another bout of amplification towards Greenland;
Meanwhile the real beast marches west;
No guarantees obviously. But this type of evolution seems more promising compared to what felt like forcing an unsuitable set up with out current cold spell. One to watch while the wind and rain is back.0 -
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GFS playing around with the idea of cold for end of January. This is very much a cold outlier, the GFS operational is almost on it's own with this one. Gets the -9 uppers over Leinster and -10 through the UK.
a few of the other runs are trying to have a go too. If this was to come off it would be likely a good deal colder than the spell we are experiencing now.
All the runs are fairly consistent at having large reserves of severe cold to our north and north-east just waiting to be tapped into. It could be a few weeks before we tap into the cold again but at least next time their should be much better source of cold air to tap into as long as we get a fairly direct hit.0 -
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Yes temperatures really starting to drop in Scandinavia over recent days and into the coming week. Oslo constantly between -5 and -12 degrees. Stockholm now sub zero each day. Central Sweden and Norway now heading towards -15 to -20.
Central and Eastern Europe cooling down too but nowhere near the cold of Scandinavia. The likes of Berlin, Warsaw, Prague etc all hovering around 0 which is colder than recent weeks but still nothing special.
Anything coming from the Scandinavia direction would be most welcomeGFS playing around with the idea of cold for end of January. This is very much a cold outlier, the GFS operational is almost on it's own with this one. Gets the -9 uppers over Leinster and -10 through the UK.
a few of the other runs are trying to have a go too. If this was to come off it would be likely a good deal colder than the spell we are experiencing now.
All the runs are fairly consistent at having large reserves of severe cold to our north and north-east just waiting to be tapped into. It could be a few weeks before we tap into the cold again but at least next time their should be much better source of cold air to tap into as long as we get a fairly direct hit.0 -
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latest GFS is playing around with cold more and more, not so much the operational but quite a few of the other runs are poised to unleash the freezer into the last 10 days of January. Some of them get the cold very close to Ireland while others have it just missing us and passing through the UK and continent instead. All of them show significant cold pooling to our north and east.
just for fun and to keep spirits up i'll post a few here:
Hopefully we will continue the trend of more runs becoming colder over the next week. It looks very possible that the freezer could be unleashed into the last week of January, but it is also possible that we may miss out on it if they push down to our east. Plenty of model watching ahead.0 -
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GFS playing around with the idea of cold for end of January. This is very much a cold outlier, the GFS operational is almost on it's own with this one. Gets the -9 uppers over Leinster and -10 through the UK.
a few of the other runs are trying to have a go too. If this was to come off it would be likely a good deal colder than the spell we are experiencing now.
All the runs are fairly consistent at having large reserves of severe cold to our north and north-east just waiting to be tapped into. It could be a few weeks before we tap into the cold again but at least next time their should be much better source of cold air to tap into as long as we get a fairly direct hit.
What would make it so much colder? 850hPa temps were -8c on Tuesday but we still managed a 5c high.0 -
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nacho libre wrote: »Just for fun...
That would do nicely. Maybe if we all say bank together it will happen
Can’t do. Cork snow shield operating.0 -
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A lot of indicators pointing at a mild week next week or maybe mild 4 days and then the cold biting back. Surely there is more snow in this Winter. Even though Ice is exciting like this morning I prefer snow. Remember some Winters saying oh look there was a light frost on the car so at least this Winter has been a vast improvement on that.
yep next week looks mild, 11 or 12C is possible in places next week particularly Thursday, could feel quite warm compared to the low to mid single digits we've had for the past 2 weeks. Turns cooler again after that.
There are some very cold runs from this mornings GFS output but it remains to be seen if Ireland gets some real cold after next week, much of north-eastern Europe looks like it will go into the freezer within the next two weeks.
next weeks mild push is well defined in the ensemble for next week and the cooling shortly afterwards. What i'd like to see over the next few days is more of the runs going colder from 19th January onwards. Still alot of scatter in the latest models with an equal level of mild and cold runs. Hopefully we don't end up with a 2012 situation with most of Europe and the UK in the freezer while Ireland stays on the mild side.0 -
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