FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

pistolpetes11

@MattHugo81 on Twitter

Quick review next 7 to 14 days:

1) Fall in AAM, along with MJO phase supports the attempted flatter, W'ly pattern.

2) This is NOT the start of a zonal pattern, the N Hem remains pre-conditioned for blocking

3) All eyes still on 15th-20th for re-amplification IMO.

Looks like there could be some interesting times ,

Gonzo

that depth of cold developing over Greenland is intense and all that cold to our north if mouthwatering, however it appears that the heights over southern Europe/west of Spain aren't really going anywhere fast unfortunately on this latest run. Will be more interested in seeing how all the other members line up when the run is completely finished and see do we get more of an agreement towards cold compared to this mornings run. We are on the verge of turning extremely mild on the end of this operational run.

pistolpetes11

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

@MattHugo81 on Twitter

Quick review next 7 to 14 days:

1) Fall in AAM, along with MJO phase supports the attempted flatter, W'ly pattern.

2) This is NOT the start of a zonal pattern, the N Hem remains pre-conditioned for blocking

3) All eyes still on 15th-20th for re-amplification IMO.

Looks like there could be some interesting times ,

The only thing I think we have for certain is time and in the near term 10 days or so to see if op runs and ensemble means start signalling something icy in response to the strat warm(s)

I personally classify Matt Hugo in the same category as Steve Murr on netweather, both are knowledgeable hopecasters
Matt is rarely right with his FI musings, often quoting the next to useless 30 day EC postage stamps whereas Murr will pull out this perturbation and that perturbation, draw a few circles and arrows on them, say if this goes here and that goes there, we're in business, that type of thing

pistolpetes11

AuntySnow wrote: »

The only thing I think we have for certain is time and in the near term 10 days or so to see if op runs and ensemble means start signalling something icy in response to the strat warm(s)

I personally classify Matt Hugo in the same category as Steve Murr on netweather, both are knowledgeable hopecasters
Matt is rarely right with his FI musings, often quoting the next to useless 30 day EC postage stamps whereas Murr will pull out this perturbation and that perturbation, draw a few circles and arrows on them, say if this goes here and that goes there, we're in business, that type of thing

He is a paid meteorological professional , does he have bias toward wintery weather on his twitter , yes he does but he does this for a living and I find him very good to follow personally , but each to there own

nacho libre

An interesting ECM day 10 chart. It's nearly always day 10. As for Matt Hugo, he does not seem to like being questioned or admitting if he gets a call wrong. By the way what has happened to our old friend Joe Bastardi? He never gets a look in these days.

pistolpetes11

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

He is a paid meteorological professional , does he have bias toward wintery weather on his twitter , yes he does but he does this for a living and I find him very good to follow personally , but each to there own

He wouldn't be a patch on Fergie!
In my opinion he explains his theories like Murr and they never happen.I'm only talking about his hope casting,not his professional skills at normal forecasting
I unfollowed him a long time ago
He used work for meteogroup who aren't a patch on the UKMO at providing forecasts to the BBC either in my opinion
As with every winter,my cut off is the end of February unless there's once in a lifetime events obviously like Emma
Let's see fingers crossed, the 10 days will tell the tale,there should be lots of signals in the main models by then if its going to happen
I'd be expecting signs by next weekend

pistolpetes11

nacho libre wrote: »

An interesting ECM day 10 chart. It's nearly always day 10. As for Matt Hugo, he does not seem to like being questioned or admitting if he gets a call wrong. By the way what has happened to our old friend Joe Bastardi? He never gets a look in these days.

Ive just had a nose through his Twitter , don't waste your time :D:D:D

nacho libre

nacho libre wrote: »

An interesting ECM day 10 chart. It's nearly always day 10. As for Matt Hugo, he does not seem to like being questioned or admitting if he gets a call wrong. By the way what has happened to our old friend Joe Bastardi? He never gets a look in these days.

Hes gone full on Donald Trump and stop the steal
He no longer does weather segments for Fox (except the more pro trump fox news business usually with that extremely pro trump presenter ,the English man Varley)
Hes a regular on the very Trumpian newsmax
He's actually very very good at calling northern European cold spells

Nabber

AuntySnow wrote: »

Hes gone full on Donald Trump and stop the steal
He no longer does weather segments for Fox (except the more pro trump fox news business usually with that extremely pro trump presenter ,the English man Varley)
Hes a regular on the very Trumpian newsmax
He's actually very very good at calling northern European cold spells

His Twitter is a mess, all over the place.

John.Icy

GFS 18Z joins the ECM with an interesting day 10; pesky Iberian heights a common theme of the day too.

bazlers

Hey this is Gonzos job ; )

That iberian high will be out in the mid Atlantic anyway,it has no stability or attraction to be there,I'd expect its going to be game on model wise in a week or two,hunch being,models will be showing a low dropping into the med via Scandinavia that originated up around Greenland or Iceland somewhere consistent with where the supposedly more reliable strat modeling has the strat polar vortex
Buckle up and order salt

Gonzo

John.Icy wrote: »

GFS 18Z joins the ECM with an interesting day 10; pesky Iberian heights a common theme of the day too.

It wouldn't take a whole lot of adjustment to hit the sweet spot with this.



Hopefully the excitment of model watching will grow significantly over the coming days.

Artane2002

AuntySnow wrote: »

That iberian high will be out in the mid Atlantic anyway,it has no stability or attraction to be there,I'd expect its going to be game on model wise in a week or two,hunch being,models will be showing a low dropping into the med via Scandinavia that originated up around Greenland or Iceland somewhere consistent with where the supposedly more reliable strat modeling has the strat polar vortex
Buckle up and order salt

am I right in saying that that sounds similar to the Storm Bella and early December pattern but the trough dropping further east?

Wine Goddess

AuntySnow wrote: »

That iberian high will be out in the mid Atlantic anyway,it has no stability or attraction to be there,I'd expect its going to be game on model wise in a week or two,hunch being,models will be showing a low dropping into the med via Scandinavia that originated up around Greenland or Iceland somewhere consistent with where the supposedly more reliable strat modeling has the strat polar vortex
Buckle up and order salt

We still have salt from 2010!!!!! Hopefully we'll get to use it this winter!

Villain

So in case people aren't aware FI Fantasy Island thread is for long long way off charts that most likely never come true.

So these are just for fun really but also show what can happen.

Latest ECM this morning shows a serious dumping of snow at the end of run and this is the type of setup that the UK Met Office mentioned in their long range outlook, cold air to North and low system from South meeting that.

bazlers

We could even get an extended cold and dry period after that if an eastery flow sets up. Might be glad of a bit of rain mid week. (Again who knows)

Slashermcguirk

All composure will be lost if these charts start showing a few days out

Villain wrote: »

So in case people aren't aware FI Fantasy Island thread is for long long way off charts that most likely never come true.

So these are just for fun really but also show what can happen.

Latest ECM this morning shows a serious dumping of snow at the end of run and this is the type of setup that the UK Met Office mentioned in their long range outlook, cold air to North and low system from South meeting that.

Reversal

Some extreme cold pooling to our East over the next ten days. ECM and GEM both want to shut down the Atlantic again by day ten with heights building into Greenland. Worth watching at least.

Slashermcguirk

Amazing to see the extent of the temp drops in parts of Scandinavia in recent days. Oslo was hovering up around +4 up to last week and now day time highs between -5 to -10. Mid Sweden and Norway pushing towards -15 to -20.

Out to the East, Moscow going as low as -15 this week

Reversal wrote: »

Some extreme cold pooling to our East over the next ten days. ECM and GEM both want bro shut down the Atlantic again by day ten with heights building into Greenland. Worth watching at least.

NMB

GFS showing Iberia heights being shaved allowing some lovely cold in - long way out but hopefully a trend to be followed by the other models

Monkeynut

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

Amazing to see the extent of the temp drops in parts of Scandinavia in recent days. Oslo was hovering up around +4 up to last week and now day time highs between -5 to -10. Mid Sweden and Norway pushing towards -15 to -20.

Out to the East, Moscow going as low as -15 this week

Irelands Weather in a bar chart

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(Muck)

Gonzo

NMB wrote: »

GFS showing Iberia heights being shaved allowing some lovely cold in - long way out but hopefully a trend to be followed by the other models

we really need those heights over Spain/med gone and better heights over Greenland. We are edging closer to greatness with each run and hopefully we can start to get excited within the next week. Fully preparing myself for what can go wrong will go wrong but fingers crossed for some magic to verify last week of January.

munsterlegend

Gonzo wrote: »

we really need those heights over Spain/med gone and better heights over Greenland. We are edging closer to greatness with each run and hopefully we can start to get excited within the next week. Fully preparing myself for what can go wrong will go wrong but fingers crossed for some magic to verify last week of January.

Gonzo when you are optimistic of our chances like GL I take notice!

nacho libre

I am not sure heights will establish fully in GL, but hopefully the recent runs from both the GFS and ECM, which depict a significant snowfall across Ireland, comes to pass at some stage. It would not surprise me it it's an ebbing and flowing situation, whereby at times we tap into colder air but it will get milder from time to time. We are over due a frontal snow event that leads to significant snowfall. Here is hoping a front stalls over Ireland leading to widespread blizzard conditions before retreating...

lucernarian

nacho libre wrote: »

I am not sure heights will establish fully in GL, but hopefully the recent runs from both the GFS and ECM, which depict a significant snowfall across Ireland, comes to pass at some stage. It would not surprise me it it's an ebbing and flowing situation, whereby at times we tap into colder air but it will get milder from time to time. We are over due a frontal snow event that leads to significant snowfall. Here is hoping a front stalls over Ireland leading to widespread blizzard conditions before retreating...

It's been less than 2 years since we've had such an event... These kinds of events are not that common.

nacho libre

lucernarian wrote: »

It's been less than 2 years since we've had such an event... These kinds of events are not that common.

Yes, they are uncommon. Aside from Storm Emma, it has been a while since we had one, especially further west. I think we had one in January 2010, but there was only modest snow accumulation from it.

Gonzo

majority of the time frontal events do happen it usually places us on the wrong side of marginal with the UK getting a pasting. We usually need very cold air firmly in place for an event to happen and one where the Irish sea doesn't turn it marginal for much of Leinster with the warmer uppers staying completely off shore in the Atlantic. Not an easy situation for Ireland. When conditions are right the frontal snow events that do happen are usually very weak affairs like the one we had the other night. 1982 and Storm Emma are the daddy of frontal snow events and those are really the only significant two frontal snow events that I can remember in my lifetime.

Kermit.de.frog

Some of the models are entering in to tease phase. Definitely changes a foot. Wouldn't take much adjustment and we could be seeing easterlies being forecast soon.

TheMilkyPirate

It snowed for 36 hours straight here in Wexford from storm Emma. I remember waking up in the morning and being shocked with the level of snow but by the end of the day it was nearly twice that. I'd be very surprised if I seen something like that again in my lifetime.

The low on the ECM would produce significant snowfall but it's a long way away yet. Hopefully we tap into something before the end of the month.