FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

John.Icy

UKMO joining the ICON with interest earlier than the last few runs, +144 (Day 6) here. Big difference to the GFS (op & Para) at the same time. A lot of options on the table still.

TheMilkyPirate

Some very impressive height rises over Greenland on the 12z GFS in FI.

Artane2002

nacho libre wrote: »

Yes, they are uncommon. Aside from Storm Emma, it has been a while since we had one, especially further west. I think we had one in January 2010, but there was only modest snow accumulation from it.

2017-18 had a few frontal snow events but they were minor events apart from the December 10th 2017 one.

Gonzo

even that December 10th 2017 didn't really work out for many areas with rain for much of Leinster.

Gonzo

munsterlegend wrote: »

Gonzo when you are optimistic of our chances like GL I take notice!

we need to make alot of progress with all the models before I start getting excited. But just for fun this mornings ECM is showing a major snow event for Ireland which would be close to a red level if it came off. However the chances of this happening are probably less than 0.01%

BLIZZARD7

Close to a red warning? That's a Storm Emma/1982 re-run right there ^ but as you said unlikely to verify... not the first time the models have played with the idea of such an event happening though...

Danno

Gonzo wrote: »

we need to make alot of progress with all the models before I start getting excited. But just for fun this mornings ECM is showing a major snow event for Ireland which would be close to a red level if it came off. However the chances of this happening are probably less than 0.01%

Well Holy God as Miley would say. :eek:

That's Storm Emma on steroids!

nacho libre

Hopefully the ECM will back the UKMO. GFS para looks messy in FI, we could end up in a milder airflow because everything is too far west.

Reversal

lucernarian wrote: »

It's been less than 2 years since we've had such an event... These kinds of events are not that common.

On an more hopeful note, that's not how probability works. Recency of past events have no impact on their likelihood at any point in the future.

If we have a 1 in 1000 year this year, it makes it no less likely next year.

lucernarian

Reversal wrote: »

On an more hopeful note, that's not how probability works. Recency of past events have no impact on their likelihood at any point in the future.

If we have a 1 in 1000 year this year, it makes it no less likely next year.

I don't need the explanation on probability, thanks

I was replying to the notion that we are overdue something like this, when there were <10 events like Emma in the past hundred years.

JCX BXC

Reversal wrote: »

On an more hopeful note, that's not how probability works. Recency of past events have no impact on their likelihood at any point in the future.

If we have a 1 in 1000 year this year, it makes it no less likely next year.

On an individual basis, no, but if you restricted the creiteria, such as having a 1 in 1000 year event 2 years in a row, the odds would be very high indeed.

Reversal

JCX BXC wrote: »

On an individual basis, no, but if you restricted the creiteria, such as having a 1 in 1000 year event 2 years in a row, the odds would be very high indeed.

Yes but in the example that was given, one event has already happened, storms emma. So now the probability of two happening in 3 years years is just the probability of it happening once in a given year.

I wasn't trying to be condescending, but the poster was trying to say it was somehow less likely because we've had the event recently.

Nabber

I know it's winter and mot FI posts and charts are aimed at cold or snow... But we can still admire some decent looking low pressure systems

nacho libre

I regret using the word overdue now:pac:

If we can get back to discussing the models, the ECM at day 10 looks like we may possibly get a Greenland High. The UKMO seem in a bit more of a hurry to get the cold in

Kermit.de.frog

Everyone don't be alarmed, be excited! :pac:

Villain

You couldn’t trust the pub run, even when the pubs are closed on a Friday night

Gonzo

over the past 2 or 3 days we seem to be inching our way closer to the ramp with each run. Long may it continue.

nacho libre

So ECM and GFS are quite similar with all roads leading north. The SSW may already be having an influence on the Northern Hemisphere profile.

Gonzo

nacho libre wrote: »

So ECM and GFS are quite similar with all roads leading north. The SSW may already be having an influence on the Northern Hemisphere profile.

earlier GFS was hinting at another 2 SSW's, one on the 18th of January and an even bigger one on the 24th of January.

TheMilkyPirate

ECM and GFS are remarkably similar at +240

Might have to book some holidays in work for the last week in January

nacho libre

Gonzo wrote: »

earlier GFS was hinting at another 2 SSW's, one on the 18th of January and an even bigger one on the 24th of January.

Prepare for a delayed spring if that happens.


meantime this is nice to ponder over:

Kermit.de.frog

I think that's enough internet for the day :pac:

Danno

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I think that's enough internet for the day :pac:

Quit the day job Frog!

Such an amazing run of charts.

Gonzo

the GFS tonight has more eye candy than I can handle, so many good options, but If I had to pick 2 these would be my choices for tonight.

Gonzo

plenty of cold options on tonights GFS runs and also lots of room for improvement! A cold trend from next weekend is becoming fairly obvious and this weeks mild blip is being minimized more on each run. After a brief warm up on Sunday and Monday, Tuesday gets quite cold again and then milder again on Wednesday and Thursday and then it's possible we will begin entering another cold period from next weekend.



The next few days will be important to see if we can lock in to a cold spell and start getting consistent cross model agreement.

nacho libre

It all looks a bit marginal with those uppers, though:pac::pac:

With a chance of even colder uppers making their way towards us.

Too bad this is the pub run. I expect there will be a downgrade of sorts on the next runs. I think the only thing we can say with a lot of confident is that there won't be weeks of zonality ahead

Slashermcguirk

The temps over the week ahead seem to be dropping even more in Scandinavia and Eastern Europe with each forecast update. Moscow and st Petersburg going as low as between -15 to -20 over week ahead, Oslo going as low as -12, mid to upper Sweden between -20 to -25. There will be a huge cold pool to our north east and east if those temps keep moving the way they are moving.

Some of these places were close to 0 just a week ago. Amazing how fast the Temp drops can come.

Seems to be floating about -5 here in Dublin 5 right now

Nabber

Cold seeping in from all directions

CirrusBusiness

GFS Para bringing in blizzards in FI.

Gonzo

it's worth noting that everything in FI at the moment is just for fun. When you look at all the models and their individual runs there are so many different outcomes, plenty of them are showing different variations of cold and some are still quite mild. The models themselves have to be having a very difficult time right now with everything that is going on with the SSW and the possibility of another major one within the next 2 weeks so everything is up for grabs for perhaps the remainder of winter.