FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Nabber

It's an FI thread during weather silly season. I think some folks forget that and get sucked into the hype.

A scan through various perturbations shows some amazing eye candy. Others are just cold damp days.

Gonzo

Nabber wrote: »

It's an FI thread during weather silly season. I think some folks forget that and get sucked into the hype.

A scan through various perturbations shows some amazing eye candy. Others are just cold damp days.

yep some great eye candy over the past 2 days but I think over the next week we may find out if we're going to lock into some decent cold or just a continuation of standard mild or cool conditions. The one thing I don't want is a winter 2012 situation with Ireland narrowly missing out on all the fun. That's possibly a more painful experience than a straight forward raging westerly.

nacho libre

It won't be the ensembles that leads the way with this initially, but if it is going to happen the majority of them should start to settle on a much colder outcome over the next few days, rather than the scatter we see now. We could well end up with a 2012 situation, as i might have mentioned previously the UK Met Office were envisaging this scenario- so we could be under the milder more unsettled la nina influence, while parts of England are under a colder continental airmass.
The GFS has led the way with goings on in the stratosphere, so hopefully it has it right about the future warmings. So in the worst case scenario, if this ends up a bust for us, we would likely have further chances down the line.

Little snowy old me

Nabber wrote: »

It's an FI thread during weather silly season. I think some folks forget that and get sucked into the hype.

A scan through various perturbations shows some amazing eye candy. Others are just cold damp days.

FI always throws up some crazy possibilities, always to be massively downgraded or completely wrong closer to the present. And yes it's fun to look at them and speculate.

However, if these charts are so unreliable at say 10 to 14 days out, why do weather agencies continue with monthly forecasts? Or is it a case that looking at charts so far out can yield forecasts that actually materialise? What is the cut off number of days into the future where it is impossible to accurately predict weather or trends?

nacho libre

Little snowy old me wrote: »

FI always throws up some crazy possibilities, always to be massively downgraded or completely wrong closer to the present. And yes it's fun to look at them and speculate.

Not always, as February 2018 and December 2010 prove.

mcburns07

Gonzo wrote: »

yep some great eye candy over the past 2 days but I think over the next week we may find out if we're going to lock into some decent cold or just a continuation of standard mild or cool conditions. The one thing I don't want is a winter 2012 situation with Ireland narrowly missing out on all the fun. That's possibly a more painful experience than a straight forward raging westerly.

The last few weeks definitely haven’t been standard down here in Cork. Gloriously sunny with hard frosts at night is sadly not our typical January weather

TheMilkyPirate

No point talking about this eye candy if you aren't going to show it. lol

Lovely northerly at +234 on the 12Z



And then snowmageddon at +294





It is FI of course as others have pointed out but there is most certainly a trend for the week of the 18th onwards. Makes interesting model watching if nothing else.

PokeHerKing

Let's be honest the only trend in FI is a day 10 trend.

But life would be boring if we didn't dream!

Davaeo09

That last model posted had picking my jaw up from the floor.
Was the cold even that far west in any of our most rewarding recent "events"? (2010->)

Cork2021

Interesting from Matt Hugo

https://twitter.com/matthugo81/status/1347945616693993473?s=21

Cork2021

Cork2021 wrote: »

Interesting from Matt Hugo

https://twitter.com/matthugo81/status/1347945616693993473?s=21

He's a brave man showing day 10 gfs charts
It will be the end of the week before we can say and if there's nothing brewing by then,it's a dud

Gonzo

GFS 12z ends the cold spell fairly quickly and the warmth from the south wins in the end. A rather bizarre end to the run with a taste of summer over Spain and southern France with temperatures in the low 20s and very mild air over north-west Europe. The model is struggling.

Gonzo

Gonzo wrote: »

GFS 12z ends the cold spell fairly quickly and the warmth from the south wins in the end. A rather bizarre end to the run with a taste of summer over Spain and southern France with temperatures in the low 20s and very mild air over north-west Europe. The model is struggling.

My comment on that would be,beyond day 7 is rubbish on that model unless it's consistently coming up in one version or another

torres9kop

Gonzo wrote: »

GFS 12z ends the cold spell fairly quickly and the warmth from the south wins in the end. A rather bizarre end to the run with a taste of summer over Spain and southern France with temperatures in the low 20s and very mild air over north-west Europe. The model is struggling.

Downgrade??

Gonzo

torres9kop wrote: »

Downgrade??

no because what i'm referring to is almost two weeks away. The only thing that is certain right now is a mild week to come, after next Friday it's all up in the air.

hatrickpatrick

Complete havoc aloft at the moment with the Stratosphere variably modelled to undergo successive intense warmings after the current warming levels off. I'd argue that until this is resolved somewhat, tropospheric modelling for our part of the world will be even more unreliable in the longer ranges than its usual (already very unreliable) state.

My sincere advice to everybody is to jump on board the strat watching train for FI banter, and ignore tropospheric FI altogether for the time being. I just can't see any model successfully forecasting what's going on as long as the whethers, whens, and more importantly wheres of stratospheric warmings remain, pun very much intended, up in the air

Artane2002

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

Complete havoc aloft at the moment with the Stratosphere variably modelled to undergo successive intense warmings after the current warming levels off. I'd argue that until this is resolved somewhat, tropospheric modelling for our part of the world will be even more unreliable in the longer ranges than its usual (already very unreliable) state.

My sincere advice to everybody is to jump on board the strat watching train for FI banter, and ignore tropospheric FI altogether for the time being. I just can't see any model successfully forecasting what's going on as long as the whethers, whens, and more importantly wheres of stratospheric warmings remain, pun very much intended, up in the air

the ECM control run went nuts, it's showing a (brief) BFTE with -13c uppers over the east coast, -16c over SE England and -24c uppers over Germany. I can't upload the image of the chart but here's a link to view it:

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/europe/m0_temperature-850hpa/20210122-0600z.html

Kermit.de.frog

Very consistent cross model agreement on high pressure building toward Greenland circa 168 -192hrs.

Potentially exciting times ahead.

pad199207

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Very consistent cross model agreement on high pressure building toward Greenland circa 168 -192hrs.

Potentially exciting times ahead.

Yes but we will just keep it calm in here for the moment

Kermit.de.frog

No! Let's go wild

pad199207

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

No! Let's go wild

Grand but don’t leap ahead of yourself :P

Gonzo

the main problem is getting that high into Greenland and getting it to stay there for more than a day or two. We need it to park over Greenland for at least a week to properly bring in the freezer to us for a decent chunk of time.

If we do get another cold spell I would prefer more of a east to north-east influence rather than another northerly that has Atlantic modification attached to it.

esposito

Gonzo wrote: »

the main problem is getting that high into Greenland and getting it to stay there for more than a day or two. We need it to park over Greenland for at least a week to properly bring in the freezer to us for a decent chunk of time.

If we do get another cold spell I would prefer more of a east to north-east influence rather than another northerly that has Atlantic modification attached to it.

Does that mean a Scandinavian high would be better for an easterly?

bazlers

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

No! Let's go wild

Once I see "Epic Snow Train" in MTCs forecast ; )

nacho libre

esposito wrote: »

Does that mean a Scandinavian high would be better for an easterly?

A proper Greenland high is better if you want a sustained cold spell. A north easterly airflow would mean more snow for Gonzo without the fear of things being marginal. Although with a robust Greenland high you would likely get a north easterly airflow eventually after the intial northerly. So everybody wins.

JanuarySnowstor

I think the lack of a southerly tracking jet is a big problem.
Extraordinary synoptics that could well find a route doesn't deliver cold to our shore!!
I think one word describes tonight's models perfectly 'stagnation'

esposito

nacho libre wrote: »

A proper Greenland high is better if you want a sustained cold spell. A north easterly airflow would mean more snow for Gonzo without the fear of things being marginal. Although with a robust Greenland high you would likely get a north easterly airflow eventually after the intial northerly. So everybody wins.

Yeah a north easterly is usually very good for Dublin also. Oh definitely a Greenland high then. The longer the better

Artane2002

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

I think the lack of a southerly tracking jet is a big problem.
Extraordinary synoptics that could well find a route doesn't deliver cold to our shore!!
I think one word describes tonight's models perfectly 'stagnation'

the Iberian high is a serious pain, it's stopping the proper cold air from descending towards us even though it's showing a Greenland high! (GFS 18z)

Artane2002

does the way this low over the Atlantic is elongated remind anybody of winter 1978/79 but farther north?

nacho libre

Artane2002 wrote: »

the Iberian high is a serious pain, it's stopping the proper cold air from descending towards us even though it's showing a Greenland high! (GFS 18z)

Yes. Its extremely frustrating, and it looks like a bit of a trend for a west based NAO to eventually set up.