FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Gonzo

that Iberian high isn't going nowhere unfortunately. If anything it's strengthening as the run goes on. It looks like a battleground between the freezer to our north and the blow torch to our south and it looks like the mild is going to win the battle for us. We really need that Iberian high to get lost fast.

Danno

esposito wrote: »

Does that mean a Scandinavian high would be better for an easterly?

Sometimes. A Scandi High is occasionally too far east for us, southerlies up the Irish Sea caused by an Atlantic front coming in over Ireland giving rain and hill snow, then in over the UK snowmageddon.

The UK has an advantage of a large landmass to it's south in the name of France, whereas there's Spain to our south and a mild Bay of Biscay in between.

bazlers

We just need to give it another 4 or 5 days chaps.

nacho libre

Unfortunately,that run seems to tally with the UKMO long range. We have incredible synoptics to the north of us, but the severe cold remains tantalisingly just out of our reach. I just hope the ECM and UKMO don't start to back this evolution.

Gonzo

ECM moves the Iberian high into the Atlantic and it appears to be heading towards Greenland, but will it get there or will it stay wedged over Spain and north Africa like what's in the GFS.



The GFS moves the high from the Atlantic over to Spain early next week and it just stays there for the rest of the run and the cold never really makes it into Ireland, keeping the Freezer just north of the Scotish coastline.



let's see what all the individual GFS runs do with that high when everything is completed.

Danno

There was a good post on Twitter earlier today - shame I didn't bookmark it, but basically - dismiss the models after five days at most. This SSW is underway and none of the models are able to handle it.

squarecircles

This is the problem with winter in Ireland, were going to waste 10 days of prime winter speculating about cold at the end of january, then before you know janauary is over and were off chasing cold again 10 days away in February, before you know it ,the sun has strengthened ,the days have lengthened and you may aswell be chasing a wet fart.

time and time again...and will have ended up with a winter of a handful of sub zero nights in early january and a bit of dandruff.

just sickening when you see Spain being ploughed with it right now.

Patience is a virtue
Seldom in a woman
But never in a man model watcher

Danno

squarecircles wrote: »

This is the problem with winter in Ireland, were going to waste 10 days of prime winter speculating about cold at the end of january, then before you know janauary is over and were off chasing cold again 10 days away in February, before you know it ,the sun has strengthened ,the days have lengthened and you may aswell be chasing a wet fart.

time and time again...and will have ended up with a winter of a handful of sub zero nights in early january and a bit of dandruff.

just sickening when you see Spain being ploughed with it right now.

I understand the frustrations in the models at the moment, I've actually stopped clicking past 96hrs to 120hrs to be honest.

There is something about the second week in January, the Atlantic has to have that push - I don't know what it is, but apart from 1987, every second week of January has killed off any Christmas/Post-Christmas cold spell in my own memory.

It sure is a roller coaster of emotion in here. Did something happen to the models between Kermit's and Gonzo's posts, or is it a matter of personalities and how they interpret the models?

Billcarson

Danno wrote: »

I understand the frustrations in the models at the moment, I've actually stopped clicking past 96hrs to 120hrs to be honest.

There is something about the second week in January, the Atlantic has to have that push - I don't know what it is, but apart from 1987, every second week of January has killed off any Christmas/Post-Christmas cold spell in my own memory.

Your dead right. Seems to be the way, i cant work it out why either. it seems to be the way over recent decades . It's like clockwork at this stage.
....and high pressure over Iberia looks like it could get a foothold which could be a thorn in the side for the next while. Clockwork.
I think its feb we have to look to now if we are to get a proper cold spell. Time will tell .......
Although we certainly are overdue a second half of Jan cold spell.

sicknotexi

Deleted User wrote: »

It sure is a roller coaster of emotion in here. Did something happen to the models between Kermit's and Gonzo's posts, or is it a matter of personalities and how they interpret the models?

Think some people are getting a little impatient. Mid next week we will have a better idea of what is in store for the final third of January.

Slashermcguirk

Ehhh storm Emma and the amazing snowfall of 2018 In Ireland happened mostly in the latter half of February and March. I know what you are saying though but March can deliver snow quite frequently. I can remember several st Patrick’s weekends where it snowed.

Regardless January has already delivered snow for many. As for Madrid, that’s the first time they have seen snowfall like that since 1971!

squarecircles wrote: »

This is the problem with winter in Ireland, were going to waste 10 days of prime winter speculating about cold at the end of january, then before you know janauary is over and were off chasing cold again 10 days away in February, before you know it ,the sun has strengthened ,the days have lengthened and you may aswell be chasing a wet fart.

time and time again...and will have ended up with a winter of a handful of sub zero nights in early january and a bit of dandruff.

just sickening when you see Spain being ploughed with it right now.

WhiteMemento9

The Polar Vortex now collapsing, is set to release the Arctic Hounds for the United States and Europe, as we head for the second half of Winter 2020/2021

Wine Goddess

Great article explains the whole SSW and Polar Vortex really well.
Thanks for sharing! Let's hope we do get a wintery blast after all.

WhiteMemento9

WhiteMemento9 wrote: »

The Polar Vortex now collapsing, is set to release the Arctic Hounds for the United States and Europe, as we head for the second half of Winter 2020/2021

Nice explanatory article
No beast in Ireland in 04 or 13 though
In 2013 there was a weak easterly here with real cold stopping at Holyhead but never getting the ferry
The anomaly chart they have shows a warmer than normal Europe but colder southwest from Scandinavia through Ireland and all across the Atlantic
Thats very unusual
But its a similar angle (just more west) as what's given Madrid this weekends whiteout
So it is plausible

Rebelbrowser

Incredibly detailed (and long!) article. Eventhough it did its best to dumb things down, I still do struggle to understand these things, as much conceptually as anything. I fear doing latin rather than physics (or even chemistry) for my leaving fado fado has doomed me to never properly understand these things!

CirrusBusiness

Day 10 on Gavs weather update ... woa look at that severe cold pool dropping down to Scandinavia with a possible northerly setting up after this weeks brief mild spell. Heights rise towards Greenland with heights also pushing south east allowing the arctic gates open from the north/north east. A pretty substantial warming going on too with another one having a go. Very interesting winter ahead imo. All to play for.. late Jan and February will have plenty of chances to deliver the goods.

nacho libre

Perturbation 19 , please. The GFS para run is very good, but the old GFS is still a spoil sport.

daniel_t1409

.

sryanbruen

nacho libre wrote: »

Perturbation 19 , please. The GFS para run is very good, but the old GFS is still a spoil sport.

Huge shift to cold on the GEFS but we await for confirmation on future model runs. Encouraging anyway.

That parallel run seems to love to big up massive Greenland heights I have noticed.

Also daniel_t1409, wrong thread :P

Calibos

I feel it in me bones folks. I feel a 1982 a comin'! Heck maybe even a '62 or '47. Not that I believe in a higher power but its like it is throwing everything at us 20/21. Covid19, a new more infectious variant to depress us and help send numbers through the roof when combined with Christmas, just as we get the good news about vaccines being ready earlier than most of us expected. Brexit throwing supply chains for a hoop. Power cuts expected simply due to extreme demand in Covid lockdown in an icy Winter. (Got a taste due to a fault the night before the Bray snow -3 hours-).

I'm telling ye, Murphys law usually means the Beast skids to a halt at the Welsh Coast to spite us because we usually want the Snow. In a Winter where the last thing the country needs is lots of snow (even we snow bunnies have to admit we could do without it this year from a rational perspective), well, thats when Mr Murphy will turn around and say, "Oh, you don't actually want snow this year?? LOL. Heres, more than you've seen in nearly 40 years!!! Muahahahaha!!!

So anyway, because I feel it in me waters, I Just ordered several pairs of Yak-Trax Snow grips and Snow Socks for the Van. I've put my money where my mouth is !! I have a chest freezer I didn't have in 2018 so can stock up on lots of Bread....and Toilet paper, musn't forget the toilet paper!!

Nabber

Calibos wrote: »

I have a chest freezer I didn't have in 2018 so can stock up on lots of Bread....and Toilet paper, musn't forget the toilet paper!!

After a hot curry there is nothing better than frozen toilet paper.

Zogabomb

Hey all,

I was alerted to the Boards.ie Weather Forum in 2010 when I was introduced to the term "Irish Sea Streamer" and I have been hooked ever since. I've always had an interest in weather but can honestly say that it was this forum that made me a weather fanatic. I've fond memories of posters like Earthman, Snowbie, Weathercheck , Black Briar and Su Campu (I'm sure most of those posters are still here!!)

After lots of books, youtube videos and a Weather Station for Christmas, I'd consider myself a novice with the ability to interpret (badly) a pressure chart or two.

I wanted to post a Thank you to all of the above and all the regular weather posters in this forum, no only do you allow people to learn, there is also great entertainment value. My other half thinks I'm mad when I'm setting the alarm for 4am during the winter to check the 0z rolling out.

I do think we are possibly on the cusp of something, I know people say it's always 10 days away but the patterns have to start somewhere and to be honest, half the entertainment is in the chase. We are continuously seeing height rises in either Greenland or Scandi popping up in the 8-10 range and we know for sure that there is an SSW or two forecast before the end of January so we are in the game and that is enough to keep me interested.

I live in Shankill so I'll challenge Calibos to a snow ball fight outside Jim Doyles if it does happen!

We got some ninja snow on Friday and it's only fully melted this morning, I know that sometimes the sea can be our foe on this island but when the wind swings E/NE and it's from a cold origin, it can be our best friend. It's one of the things I love about Irish Weather!

Artane2002

sryanbruen wrote: »

Huge shift to cold on the GEFS but we await for confirmation on future model runs. Encouraging anyway.

That parallel run seems to love to big up massive Greenland heights I have noticed.

Also daniel_t1409, wrong thread :P

here is the 06z GEFS set. about 6 of the 32 go for sub -10c uppers by the 21st/22nd in Dublin and 10 out of the 32 go for sub -10c uppers at some stage. that's fairly decent support for that far out I would think but hopefully we can build on that as we get closer to that timeframe.

Gonzo

hopefully we start seeing more runs going to -10 and colder over the next few days and less of that Iberian high pressure. We don't want high pressure stuck off the west coast of Ireland either with the cold plunging into the UK and the continent while avoiding us. Up to 10 runs go properly cold out of 30. I am hoping that over the next few days that number would be at least 15 to maybe 20. If that happens then we can start to take this possible upcoming cold spell more seriously, particularly if the GEM and ECM start jumping on board too.

Reversal

Has anyone else noticed the GFS being the trendsetter this winter. Perhaps not the best at the finer details, flip flopping alot, but among all the scatter it has been pointing the way to big picture trends since December.

Gonzo

Reversal wrote: »

Has anyone else noticed the GFS being the trendsetter this winter. Perhaps not the best at the finer details, flip flopping alot, but among all the scatter it has been pointing the way to big picture trends since December.

yep definitely noticed this. The GFS correctly predicted the last cold spell several days to maybe a week before the other models. It did not get the finer details correct but it got there in terms of predicting colder weather for an extended period of time. It was also the first model hinting at the return of the milder weather from the west while the other models were still going for a continuation of northerlies and easterlies before siding with the GFS about two days afterwards.

While the GFS has about 33% support of another cold spell, there is still a relatively strong level of mild runs too with that Iberian high really causing us problems to get something very cold and unstable right over us.

ninebeanrows

It's hard to understand the optimism for something noticeably colder.

I think we had a great chance with the current cold spell but the upper high just never developed over Greenland and we missed our chance at something severe.

When you see charts like this at 144hr from the UKM, it is hard to be in anyway positive for a return to a significant cold spell any time soon.

Rebelbrowser

Gonzo wrote: »

yep definitely noticed this. The GFS correctly predicted the last cold spell several days to maybe a week before the other models. It did not get the finer details correct but it got there in terms of predicting colder weather for an extended period of time. It was also the first model hinting at the return of the milder weather from the west while the other models were still going for a continuation of northerlies and easterlies before siding with the GFS about two days afterwards.

While the GFS has about 33% support of another cold spell, there is still a relatively strong level of mild runs too with that Iberian high really causing us problems to get something very cold and unstable right over us.

In fairness the CFS predicted it ever before that. I posted charts from it on 4 December showing a cold spell starting around 27 Dec and lasting a fortnight or so.