FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Tyrone212

Tyrone212 wrote: »

Directly Northerly's are best IMO.

<wind direction that gets me more snow> is best, IMO

Tyrone212

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

It's interesting to note that temps the other night, that came C/O of not a very potent northerly source, reached lower levels than they did at any time during the 'Beast from the East' back in 2018.

2018 Beast min: -7.0c in Cork
2021 so far: -8.2 in Dunsany and Caement.

Katesbridge recorded -10.5 last week as well.

Tyrone212

Tyrone212 wrote: »

Katesbridge recorded -10.5 last week as well.

Thats Domestic cold
Temps were lower in 2010 than that!

I'm sure people here yearn for more than Domestic cold as it doesn't last when hit on by the Atlantic

mickger844posts

Mod Note Can we keep on topic guys and going forward leave the general chat stuff to the Winter thread. Model/Technical Discussion only in here please. Thanks

Artane2002

I hope I don't jinx it but the pub run has shifted the pattern eastwards... and if I'm reading this correctly then there might be a band of organised snow about to move down from the north?
Edit: I think I mixed up the charts, also I checked the precipitation charts and it's more rain than snow

Nqp15hhu

Artane2002 wrote: »

I hope I don't jinx it but the pub run has shifted the pattern eastwards... and if I'm reading this correctly then there might be a band of organised snow about to move down from the north?
Edit: I think I mixed up the charts, also I checked the precipitation charts and it's more rain than snow

Very good but already I see a warm sector in the North Atlantic and towards Shetland. We need pure, unmoderated cold.

JanuarySnowstor

The 18z gfs Is More Of The Same Really
Cold but not cold enough, sleet and hill snow rather than anything widespread!
Any other year we would have been quite excited it's just the ssw promised something special!!

Of course still time for it to upgrade

EDIT: Stunning FI THOUGH!!

nacho libre

:cool:

Gonzo

very little precipitation too other than rain and sleet showers on north and northwestern coasts. At least the high over Greenland is a little further east compared to the 12z.

We need to get direct access into that very cold pool over Scandinavia and send the winds into the north-east otherwise this is going to be another mostly dry cold spell.

TheMilkyPirate

Serious cold pool heading west over Scandinavia


upload file online for download

nacho libre

The very cold uppers are into Scandinavia. Worry about getting the cold in first. Fretting about the lack of precipitation in 10 days time is pointless at this stage.

Gonzo

best GFS run of the day already. -10 Uppers across the country and snow showers in over Leinster.





such a pity it is still two weeks away.

pad199207

Gonzo wrote: »

best GFS run of the day already. -10 Uppers across the country and snow showers in over Leinster.





such a pity it is still two weeks away.

Ideal

Snowbiee21

pad199207 wrote: »

Ideal

Day 19 tomorrow pad

pad199207

Snowbiee21 wrote: »

Day 19 tomorrow pad

Not ideal

nacho libre

While the GFS won't likely deliver snow for me, we have had three days of overcast and wet days here, I'll be just really glad at this stage for some drier and colder weather. Of course that is assuming it comes to pass in the first place. It could all look different again in the morning!

Neddyusa

Tyrone212 wrote: »

Easterlys are terrible for me. I think North Donegal does well from them, the only place really in Ulster from 2018 that I can remember that did(Monaghan,Cavan did alright i think). My Brother lives near buncrana he was under streamers for days, his car was buried and I had none. Interestingly Shrove in Donegal is further East than Waterford Kilkenny and pretty much identical to Kildare Town. That area of Donegal is exposed to an Easterly.

That's mad - I had to check the map after reading that (I'm looking at maps every day in the job) and I never noticed that before! :pac:
I suppose I always think of Donegal as the North-West but its nearly as big a county in the east-west axis as north-south.

Donegal Ken

Tyrone212 wrote: »

Easterlys are terrible for me. I think North Donegal does well from them, the only place really in Ulster from 2018 that I can remember that did(Monaghan,Cavan did alright i think). My Brother lives near buncrana he was under streamers for days, his car was buried and I had none. Interestingly Shrove in Donegal is further East than Waterford Kilkenny and pretty much identical to Kildare Town. That area of Donegal is exposed to an Easterly.

Yes they did well that time in 2018 due to sea streamers coming into Lough Foyle. Especially up along northern inishowen.

Gonzo

tonights GFS pub run begins to turn things cold from Monday 18th of January, fairly dry and low level cold to begin with.



turns properly cold and more unstable from the 24th of January with -8 to -10 uppers across the country, showers at this stage mostly of sleet and snow.





Stays very cold up to the end of the run on January 28th.




Let's see what the morning brings, lovely pub run tonight but the GFS can't seem to make up it's mind from one run to another and is proving quite a rollercoaster already.

Dazler97

I hope we get a northeasterly as then I'd get snow, I used to live in Rathfarnham and now I'm in Carrick on Shannon so I hope we get snow deep, we've had 2 decent snowfalls so far but a proper easterly or northeasterly would be nice

bazlers

I think the rollercoaster is at its lowest.

Villain

Very poor GEFS this morning, big jump in mean temps and UKMO poor also, ECM not great either.

A wobble or a shift?

bazlers

Matt Hugo tweet certainly not uninspiring either. I would of classed him a bit of a ramper at times.

bazlers

At times like these you just want MTCs morning forecast to give us some crumb of hope : )

KingdomRushed

Oh well doesn't look great now. A shift across the GFS ensembles to messy cold low pressure but not severe cold or much to get excited about. Ridge is blown away quickly over greenland. ECM has disimproved also

bazlers

Well i wont dismatle the ski slope i made just yet by I wont lie i had the nail bar in me hands ; )

Just cant see any really severe cold arriving all the same.
Something akin to what we had im fearing which apart from that one cold night wasnt historic by any means.
We await and see..to the observatory once more : )

Villain

Compare the GEFS from last two runs here:

Humberto Salazar

Horrible Ecm out to 23rd. Chilly and damp. If you like that sort of thing. It's all gone pear shaped.

pauldry

Its only one set of runs. Wait until it all firms up. I wouldnt write it all off yet.

Artane2002

pauldry wrote: »

Its only one set of runs. Wait until it all firms up. I wouldnt write it all off yet.

I hope I'm wrong but I think the ship has sailed for this one, I doubt every single one of those runs went wrong by mistake. I know it's only mid January but the clock is ticking now, we need to start seeing something good showing up soon because after mid February solar input becomes an issue. this post is not writing off winter but I think this comment is fair.