FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

TheMilkyPirate

UKMO on the ball at +144

Captain Snow

Billcarson wrote: »

Ukmo for next Thursday looks good, easterly setting in. Getting closer......

Always Back Bill

munsterlegend

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

UKMO on the ball at +144

Is the time frame being brought forward? 6 days relatively close.

Reversal

You know it's a possibility when new start talking about the UKMO

TheMilkyPirate

munsterlegend wrote: »

Is the time frame being brought forward? 6 days relatively close.

Bit of a different evolution but yeah the UKMO is about 24hrs ahead with the establishment of the easterly

Billcarson

Captain Snow wrote: »

Always Back Bill

I've been saying the first week of feb for the last few weeks. Another crap second half of Jan comes to an end......

Rebelbrowser

GFS has an easterly by this day week too with -8 and less uppers by the Saturday. Still rolling out

Captain Snow

Also note this is the Effect from the SSW 4 weeks ago, we have a SSW ongoing now so when the effects of the First SSW are dying out we will get a Boost from the second SSW that is why I think cold will be in the forecast till April....:)




GEM coming inline.

Villain

Ohhhh the UKMO is getting on board, now that is nice to see!

Arduach

Villain wrote: »

Ohhhh the UKMO is getting on board, now that is nice to see!

Good stuff Alan. It's nice to have you on board aswell as the UKMO

United road

Billcarson wrote: »

I've been saying the first week of feb for the last few weeks. Another crap second half of Jan comes to an end......

To be fair you have been consistent on that. Certainly kept my hopes up!
I apologise for this post (its not technical at all) and is only post i shall put in here I promise, but can at least say i got to post in technical thread (box ticked)

Long time following these posts to see what future holds. Zero technical knowledge.
May i ask, if things were to verify, what is the maximum timeframe out before you techies decide, ok, im confident, lets start a dedicated thread?

Also, an observation from reading technical pages over past 11 years. if you ever take a few days off from reading the posts in here, you spot a trend, you get to catch up and its all charts looking good, still ok, then gone, then its back again looking very positive and then its gone again, seems to be rinse and repeat.
When does it move from that to confidence. It seems to me past 24 hours its all positive, no major negative take, is there a time period of consistency needed and how long is that typically?

Genuine questions and honesty interested
I apologise in advance for derailing if i have, but thought its relevant questions on charts in medium term!
Oh and as i say, i got to post in a technical thread!! 11 years im waiting to do that :-)

TheMilkyPirate

GEM gives just a short north-easterly with the high then collapsing over us. Second run in a row now it has done this and the GEM was most bullish about this from the start.

giveitholly

Arduach wrote: »

Good stuff Alan. It's nice to have you on board aswell as the UKMO

We need Strong Wind and AntiSnow on board as well!!!!

Arduach

So much better than the beast if it materialises in that we'll be hit 3 weeks earlier. That's so important in terms of length of the day, solar strength etc.

Arduach

giveitholly wrote: »

We need Strong Wind and AntiSnow on board as well!!!!

The two other models

Reversal

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

GEM gives just a short north-easterly with the high then collapsing over us. Second run in a row now it has done this and the GEM was most bullish about this from the start.

Massive downgrade of blocking on the 12z GFS. Hmmmm

TheMilkyPirate

Heights building again at +240. It might just be that we get a snapshot of the cold next weekend before the real cold bites in a few days later. The GFS teased with this possibility in the 6z FI. Who knows, nothing is set in stone anyway that is for sure.

sryanbruen

Reversal wrote: »

Massive downgrade of blocking on the 12z GFS. Hmmmm

Blows up the Atlantic low and no super block shown as per 06z operational which was a clear big outlier in deep FI. In probability terms, the 12z deterministic has a higher chance to verify as compared to the 06z det run just due to climatology and how infrequent we see such an Omega block parked right around Greenland. Still shows the easterly digging in by the end of next week into the weekend.

GEFS at day 10 look more amplified with better fetch from the northeast and trough further south before then as compared to previous runs.

Snowbiee21

Let’s be real, the stonker charts we’ve witnessed over the last 24 hours had little to no chance of verifying. What we are seeing here is the charts chopping and Changing, but back to a more realistic state this evening showing shorty north easterlies let’s see what the 18Z brings.

Gonzo

delighted with the UKMO run this afternoon and the ECM isn't looking too bad either. Fairly major downgrade on the GFS but we still get 2 or 3 days of cold easterlies a week from now. This mornings wonderful GFS runs was very much a deep cold outlier towards the end so downgrades were likely on this. We will know soon if the current GFS 12z is a mild outlier after day 9.

If we end up getting a 2 or 3 day easterly, that can still dump a considerable amount of snow in short spaces of time if the conditions are right.

Artane2002

Gonzo wrote: »

delighted with the UKMO run this afternoon and the ECM isn't looking too bad either. Fairly major downgrade on the GFS but we still get 2 or 3 days of cold easterlies a week from now. This mornings wonderful GFS runs was very much a deep cold outlier towards the end so downgrades were likely on this. We will know soon if the current GFS 12z is a mild outlier after day 9.

If we end up getting a 2 or 3 day easterly, that can still dump a considerable amount of snow in short spaces of time if the conditions are right.

I'd really love a prolonged cold spell but to be honest I'd happily take 2-3 days of Irish Sea streamers at this stage. the GEFS 12z mean gets to -7.9c on February 7th but that's with milder runs skewing it, I reckon it would be around -9c without those milder runs.

TheMilkyPirate

ECM not great at all so far + 168

sryanbruen

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

ECM not great at all so far + 168

Very flat, doesn't even show the easterly. What a mess.

Gonzo

ECM updating, looks to be a major downgrade on this mornings run. The Azores high ridging into Ireland at 168 hours compared to this mornings run and the cold air east of the UK instead of pushing westwards over us.





No easterlies or cold.

Snowbiee21

.....

sicknotexi

ECM says NO.

typhoony

ECM is following the 12z GFS in downgrading if not completely removing the cold spell. I still think we'll be stuck in no mans land whatever happens

Gonzo

I'm going to pretend the ECM 12z didn't happen and is potentially an extreme mild outlier.

Getting back to the GFS 12z the run has fully updated and I had a feeling it was also a mild outlier towards the end and indeed it is. However, there is an overall mild trend from February 10th but there are still plenty of cold runs further on but not a majority of them.

Going by this we still appear on for a 3 to 5 day cold outbreak from February 4th to the 9th.



There is still plenty of potential for this cold spell to extend beyond February 9th/10th. At the same time i'm not convinced that this cold spell is locked in yet with the disagreement between the models. Alot can happen between now and Monday and it's going to take till Monday before we are confident of what the second half of next week brings, so best to hold out excitement for the time being.

Captain Snow

sicknotexi wrote: »

ECM says NO.

Snowbiee21

Captain Snow wrote: »

Ya jinxed it now, long delayed damp, cold (but snowless) and dull spring incoming with another washout summer