FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

lostweekend3

Snowbiee21 wrote: »

Ya jinxed it now, long delayed damp, cold (but snowless) and dull spring incoming with another washout summer

Enough of that negativity. Plenty of time for upgrades. It was never going to be plain sailing especially where we are located.

Humberto Salazar

ECM consistent with no long term easterly. GFS flip flopping. I don't fancy ten days of icy sleet and rain. Warm spring sun will do it now if this is the choice we have in the next two weeks

TheMilkyPirate

There are always going to be crap runs. GFS an UKMO still on for the easterly next week, plenty of time between now and then

Artane2002

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

There are always going to be crap runs. GFS an UKMO still on for the easterly next week, plenty of time between now and then

not to the degree the ECM is showing though! the ECM ensembles have trended the wrong way too unfortunately.

nacho libre

I think deep cold will remain out of reach for now, but i don't see warm spring sun taking hold either. The ECM probably won't be outlier, but i'll be surprised if the charts its showing past day 5 are realised. I think the nh profile will remain very conducive to blocking during February but at the surface real cold will remain out of reach until after mid February. Whether that is to do with La Nina or what i don't know. Does anyone really?

Now I just hope this bit of reverse psychology works and we are in the freezer in 8 days time:pac:

Artane2002

nacho libre wrote: »

I think deep cold will remain out of reach for now, but i don't see warm spring sun taking hold either. The ECM probably won't be outlier, but i'll be surprised if the charts its showing past day 5 are realised. I think the nh profile will remain very conducive to blocking during February but at the surface real cold will remain out of reach until after mid February. Whether that is to do with La Nina or what i don't know. Does anyone really?

Now I just hope this bit of reverse psychology works and we are in the freezer in 8 days time:pac:

if the ECM is right then hopefully the other models latch on very quickly to put this drama to bed. if it's wrong then it'll prove just how rubbish it's been all winter.

Nacho
No man's land is no fun

froog

nacho libre

AuntySnow wrote: »

Nacho
No man's land is no fun

It isn't, but that's sadly often the way of things for us, unless we can reverse the spin of the globe or shut off the North Atlantic Drift:(

hatrickpatrick

In the spirit of the current climate (sorry :pac:)

munsterlegend

Artane2002 wrote: »

if the ECM is right then hopefully the other models latch on very quickly to put this drama to bed. if it's wrong then it'll prove just how rubbish it's been all winter.

The U.K. Met Office who wouldn’t be ones to throw the toys out of the pram based on one ECM run have been indicating a cold and wintry February for a long time. Let’s see what happens over the next couple of days.

Artane2002

munsterlegend wrote: »

The U.K. Met Office who wouldn’t be ones to throw the toys out of the prom based on one ECM run have been indicating a cold and wintry February for a long time. Let’s see what happens over the next couple of days.

the ECM op run in isolation wouldn't bother me, it's the fact that its ensembles are going the wrong direction too. the GEM isn't great either and the GEFS aren't as good as earlier but I'll put that down as run-to-run variation rather than a downgrade. the Met Office aren't always right either, they kept calling for very cold weather during winter 2018-19 but kept pushing it back, we all know what actually happened in the end.

esposito

Artane2002 wrote: »

the ECM op run in isolation wouldn't bother me, it's the fact that its ensembles are going the wrong direction too. the GEM isn't great either and the GEFS aren't as good as earlier but I'll put that down as run-to-run variation rather than a downgrade. the Met Office aren't always right either, they kept calling for very cold weather during winter 2018-19 but kept pushing it back, we all know what actually happened in the end.

Don't remind me of that awful winter:P

Have to agree here, the UK Met can get it wrong sometimes. Very interesting few weeks ahead as to which model performs best and if the UK Met are right.

Gonzo

While this afternoons runs have been a major let down compared to this morning and have thrown everything in doubt, I think we need to see what happens tomorrow first before admitting defeat.

We need tonight's pub run to at least stay on track and wake up in the morning to nice upgrades on the GFS, GEM, UKMO and especially that ECM. If we have another set of runs in the morning that mirror this afternoon's models then maybe we will just have to reign back our expectations alot.

esposito

Gonzo wrote: »

While this afternoons runs have been a major let down compared to this morning and have thrown everything in doubt, I think we need to see what happens tomorrow first before admitting defeat.

We need tonight's pub run to at least stay on track and wake up in the morning to nice upgrades on the GFS, GEM, UKMO and especially that ECM. If we have another set of runs in the morning that mirror this afternoon's models then maybe we will just have to reign back our expectations alot.

Morning runs (0z's) in recent times are usually bad. Fully prepared for them to be bad tomorrow morning.

typhoony

if 18z continues the downgrade or shows similar to 12z then i think we know where it's heading

Slashermcguirk

It’s one set of runs, they will always chop and change, we won’t know what will happen until end of Sunday or Monday, in two days we could be back on a jackpot.

Artane2002

Gonzo wrote: »

While this afternoons runs have been a major let down compared to this morning and have thrown everything in doubt, I think we need to see what happens tomorrow first before admitting defeat.

We need tonight's pub run to at least stay on track and wake up in the morning to nice upgrades on the GFS, GEM, UKMO and especially that ECM. If we have another set of runs in the morning that mirror this afternoon's models then maybe we will just have to reign back our expectations alot.

if the 0z runs don't improve then I think we know where this is heading. the good thing is that we still have more chances in the future, I believe there is a SSW underway, so maybe we can scrape something interesting some time in February. I'm trying my best to be positive here...

nacho libre

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

It’s one set of runs, they will always chop and change, we won’t know what will happen until end of Sunday or Monday, in two days we could be back on a jackpot.

We will likely know before then. If the GFS moves towards the ECM between now and the morning its as good as game over for now. You rarely get a situation where the models flip back at this range.
I would expect a big downgrade in the UKMO long range update if this happens

nacho libre

Artane2002 wrote: »

if the 0z runs don't improve then I think we know where this is heading. the good thing is that we still have more chances in the future, I believe there is a SSW underway, so maybe we can scrape something interesting some time in February. I'm trying my best to be positive here...

I remain positive of a cold spell before February is out- sometime after mid February.

nacho libre

Artane2002 wrote: »

I believe there is a SSW underway, so maybe we can scrape something interesting some time in February. I'm trying my best to be positive here...

Shh. Don't mention an SSW with Aunty Snow about:D Is this actually another SSW or a continuation of the previous one?

Kermit.de.frog

The ups and downs are all part of the process to a snowy ending. Don't be getting alarmed from run to run everyone!

Rebelbrowser

Humberto Salazar wrote: »

ECM consistent with no long term easterly. GFS flip flopping. I don't fancy ten days of icy sleet and rain. Warm spring sun will do it now if this is the choice we have in the next two weeks

Em, it only goes out 10 days? And it had an easterly on several recent runs.

TheMilkyPirate

18z hasn't followed the ECM, Makes the 00Zs more interesting

nacho libre

Looks like a brief easterly, then cold and dry as a high ridges in around the 8th. Where will the high go next?

Davaeo09

Scotland is going to be absolutely pasted

Artane2002

nacho libre wrote: »

Looks like a brief easterly, then cold and dry as a high ridges in around the 8th. Where will the high go next?

I'd guess that it would generally dry on that run during the easterly. not ideal but at least it's not a disaster like the ECM, at least we're still in the game on the 18z.

TheMilkyPirate

Between this and $GME its been a rollercoaster of a few days

Dickie10

i really want some east wind to dry the place out is it looking like a n easterly pattern starting?

Artane2002

the control, para and even the mean are all better than the op run I'd argue, I'm relatively happy with the 18z runs, we could do with the high being further north but after that ECM I won't complain!